The Warriors are better without KD

[The_Hater]

Offensively they seem better without him and have great chemistry which is how they won 73.

But defensive peak is with him sane for playoffs

Offensively, with Durant in the lineup for the first 60 games or so, the Warriors not only had the #1 offensive rating in the league but it was the best offensive rating of all time. They also had the league's #1 defense but slipped to #2 without him.

They went 18-5 without KD this season. Including playoffs they're 51-10 with him in the lineup.

The Warriors are very, very good without KD but definitely better with him.

[Hello Brooklyn]

Its a legitimate point.

The Warriors defense seems to improve a lot without him.

I don't know why, but they just play better when he's out.

[SideshowBob]

Nah.

Preliminary GSW Data. All the gamelogs have been compiled so I'll take requests at this point - just a matter of organizing the splits.

Also, will post 2015-17 combined splits as well - I want to compare how they performed with Durant replacing Barnes in a general and controlled sample. Also want to get into the lineup data, because what I've noticed all year is that their top-end did not hit 2016 levels.

2017 Golden State Warriors (Regular Season Only)

Full Season (82 G, 67-15)

+11.35 SRS, +7.1 Offense, -4.2 Defense

-------------------------

Steph, Klay, Green IN | Durant OUT (18 G, 15-3)

+10.43 SRS, +6.0 Offense, -5.0 Defense

-------------------------

Steph, Klay, Green IN | Durant IN (53 G, 44-9)

+13.05 SRS, +8.5 Offense, -4.4 Defense (118.0 ORTG!)

--------------------------------------------------

So Durant is lifting their SRS by ~2.6 points. Increasing a 10.5 SRS team by 2.5-3.0 points is in line with a ~+4.75-5.00 SRS mid-high portability player on a 0 SRS team (I don't believe he is in the class of Curry/Green ITO portability).

Offense = ORTG minus DRTG faced (positive = good). Defense = DRTG minus ORTG faced (negative = good).

[rcontador]

Nah.

Preliminary GSW Data. All the gamelogs have been compiled so I'll take requests at this point - just a matter of organizing the splits.

Also, will post 2015-17 combined splits as well - I want to compare how they performed with Durant replacing Barnes in a general and controlled sample. Also want to get into the lineup data, because what I've noticed all year is that their top-end did not hit 2016 levels.

2017 Golden State Warriors (Regular Season Only)

Full Season (82 G, 67-15)

+11.35 SRS, +7.1 Offense, -4.2 Defense

-------------------------

Steph, Klay, Green IN | Durant OUT (18 G, 15-3)

+10.43 SRS, +6.0 Offense, -5.0 Defense

-------------------------

Steph, Klay, Green IN | Durant IN (53 G, 44-9)

+13.05 SRS, +8.5 Offense, -4.4 Defense (118.0 ORTG!)

--------------------------------------------------

So Durant is lifting their SRS by ~2.6 points. Increasing a 10.5 SRS team by 2.5-3.0 points is in line with a ~+4.75-5.00 SRS mid-high portability player on a 0 SRS team (I don't believe he is in the class of Curry/Green ITO portability).

Offense = ORTG minus DRTG faced (positive = good). Defense = DRTG minus ORTG faced (negative = good).

Dude, you can't just crunch the numbers on Durant's in/out and act like the result is valid. Adjustment periods are a thing! When Durant went down, Steph-Klay-Green lost 4 of their next 6 (three of which you've included in your sample). Does anybody in the world think that stretch is representative of their real level of play? No.

I also object to over-extrapolating from tiny samples... and to using SRS as a measure of goodness for teams that are already winning pretty much every game. But that's secondary. Literally all 3 of your Steph-Klay-Green losses SHOULD NOT BE IN THE ANALYSIS.

[nbafan38]

Not better without him but probably not that much worse, there are a few moments without him where you might look and say they can use KD right now but its rare given the level of superstar he is. If Lebron, Westbrook, Harden are off the court you automatically miss their presence at every moment

[Ndugu Kamala]

The Warriors may not need KD now, but they will rely on him heavily if they get the opportunity to meet the Cavs in a Finals rematch.

Durant's ability to get to the basket and keep the defense honest will be the x-factor.

[bmurph128]

The Warriors may not need KD now, but they will rely on him heavily if they get the opportunity to meet the Cavs in a Finals rematch.

Durant's ability to get to the basket and keep the defense honest will be the x-factor.

This.

They don't need Durant for anyone except the Cavs.

[Jedi32]

Honestly threads like this scream hatred and fear imo. Folks are so scared that the Warriors might win with KD that they are always looking for a way to discredit it or downplay what they feel is the inevitable. No team would be better without KD. Now folks want to claim curry is the Warriors best player but I remember just a few months ago folks were claiming it was KD and how curry was overrated. Smh don't ever change realgm.

[nbafan38]

Honestly threads like this scream hatred and fear imo. Folks are so scared that the Warriors might win with KD that they are always looking for a way to discredit it or downplay what they feel is the inevitable. No team would be better without KD. Now folks want to claim curry is the Warriors best player but I remember just a few months ago folks were claiming it was KD and how curry was overrated. Smh don't ever change realgm.

I think it's more about anger than fear. I don't know if anyone is scared of GS winning as much as thinks it is inevitable but angry that Durant stacked the team so badly that its perceived that other teams don't have a chance and a feeling that he is almost cheating himself to a ring so yes I do think there is a movement to recognize the warriors success without him to discredit him so his title is delegitamized when he wins it.

[sikma42]

He will be big when GS plays the Spurs. The Spurs start a perimeter of Parker, Green, Kawhi. Without KD they could just put KD on Steph and Green on Klay and just hide Parker on McCaw or Barnes. With KD in the lineup, Kawhi is going to be on KD and that makes life a whole lot easier on Steph and Klay. That means one of Steph or Klay is going to have Tony Parker on them, that will be a huge mismatch. With Steph, Klay and KD out there at the same time, you just cant hide any poor defenders.

Mispost


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[Ballerhogger]

Send him to the lakers. Yea that will show him. Will give you Randle. Fair deal

[and1GS]

The warriors are better without KD against a severely wounded Blazers team where we can freely run our motion offense and get cheap alley oop buckets due to their lack of size.

^^^That's more accurate.

[sikma42]

What Durant does is he disrupts what teams figured out about the Warriors last year. All that switching, it may work to slow down Steph and KD. But now you are going to have a ton of cross matches and KD is the guy that will punish that everytime


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[dho4ever]

Every time he sits out they switch back into 2016 Warriors god mode. He comes back and they still win, but it's clunky, and upsets come easier. They'll win the title with or without him, because they have 10x the talent of anybody else... but it's time to call a spade a spade. He makes them worse.

This post is why this forum should implement a "vote to close" button where X number of votes closes a thread.

[Unlist3d]

Honestly Durant as the 6th man would make Warriors invincible.

[NBAFan93]

Warriors wanted him so he wouldn't play for their competition, not cause they needed him to win . I wonder if he's figured it out yet. Haha.

Seriously, I don't think they are better w/o him, but they certainly aren't much worse. A more competitive person would hate to be marginalized that way, but maybe Durant doesn't like the pressure of a team needing him to play well in order to win.

[Upperclass]

I said this same thing on the warriors board back in November and in the game thread recently. He does make them more predictable on offense because he's still a bit of a ball holder and he isnt a quick thinker in the flow of the game. His main contribution imo is on defense and on catch and shoots.. but he doesnt do that a whole lot in their O.

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=1487342#start_here

If they want another "star", they really need a guy like Paul George imo.. Durant is actually too good for a role and it affects everyone because that isnt the nature of their offense.

[nbafan38]

Warriors wanted him so he wouldn't play for their competition, not cause they needed him to win . I wonder if he's figured it out yet. Haha.

Seriously, I don't think they are better w/o him, but they certainly aren't much worse. A more competitive person would hate to be marginalized that way, but maybe Durant doesn't like the pressure of a team needing him to play well in order to win.

Yea this was a complete sell job by the warriors organization to cripple their competition and gain a dynasty, great job by GS but it's just a shame Durant was weak enough to go for it. They've basically turned the 2nd best player in the nba into a player who's needed for 1-2 series a year.

[Patches Perry]

They're not better without him. He is too good to not be an asset, but he might make no difference in the outcome of the season. If they lose Durant they probably still finish 1st seed and with the Cavs struggles this year, they probably still win the title. So while they're a better team with him, he will affect the outcome very little if any.

[SF_Warriors]

LOL we all saw this thread coming..or at least I did