Post#128 » by Curmudgeon » Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:30 pm
I don't understand how to choose intelligently given how the poll in this thread is constructed. Let's start with the current roster and go from there.
Avery Bradley
Jaylen Brown
Jae Crowder
Gerald Green
Al Horford
Demetrius Jackson
Jonas Jerebko
Amir Johnson
Jordan Mickey
Kelly Olynyk
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Isaiah Thomas
James Young
Tyler Zeller
In addition to those 15, the Celtics have:
Ante Zizic
Guerschon Yabusele
Abdul Nader
2017 First round pick. Let's call him Lonzo Fultz for the time being.
Three 2017 second round picks
Next year roster size goes up to 17 with the new two-way contracts. So with 22 guys under control (or potentially under control), 5 guys will have to go or be non-roster players, regardless of your "philosophy" of how the roster should be constructed.
1. I think it's safe to say that Johnson, Zeller, Young and Green will be gone. All have expiring contracts. They will be replaced by Zizic, Yabusele, Nader and Fultz. As first round picks, Zizic, Yabusele and Fultz are not eligibe for two-way contracts, but Nader is. The player taken with #37 this June will also be a strong candidate for a two-way, especially if they can get someone like Jonathan Motley or Jordan Bell. Jerebko may also be gone, but he's more valuable than the other three and makes less money, so who knows?
2. Mickey, Jackson and Rozier are highly expendible. None of them is eligible for a two-way contract because they are already signed. Jackson and Rozier have some talent, but the team has a glut of guards and needs to get bigger. The guard glut will likely be even larger after the draft.
3. The two late second rounders will either be traded, consolidated or used for players Ainge can stash, e.g. Alpha Kaba, Aleksandar Vezenkov or Matthias Lessort.
4. Olynyk is 50-50 in my view. I don't think Ainge will match offers over 10-11 million annually.
5. Even if Olynyk, Jerebko, Rozier, Mickey and Jackson all stay, they will have roster room for one free agent.
So regardless of your philosophy as to who should be traded and who should be kept, and barring draft night trades, the working depth chart will be very close to this after the quiet period ends:
C: Horford Olynyk Zizic
PF: Jerebko Yabusele Mickey
SF: Crowder Brown Nader
SG: Bradley Smart
PG: Thomas Fultz Rozier Jackson
That's 15, which leaves room for a free agent and another two way contact, plus two stashed picks (#53, #54).
"Numbers lie alot. Wins and losses don't lie." - Jerry West
"You are what your record says you are."- Bill Parcells
"Offense sells tickets. Defense wins games. Rebounding wins championships." Pat Summit