Trade Post-Mortem 2017: Eight is Enough

[soxfan2003]

So, you guys think Wyc and DA read this forum?

Ainge based upon his comments and the fact that he is older doesn't strike me the type that would read realgm but I suspect a lot of gm's under 50 years old actually read team forums in lurk mode and similar sites.

Imagine if realgm was around in 1986 and someone 3 months before the draft said they were at a party and saw Len Bias using cocaine? I actually think its kind of irresponsible for Ainge/Wyc to not have someone they really trust to not just be reading this forum but others like it. 99% of the info may be of little use but if you can get something out of it, why not use it.

So, I believe there are at least a few high ranking Celtics employees that do read realgm and communicate some of the more relevant fan sentiment to them and how it is changing. If you had a business that is fan driven like the Celtics wouldn't you want to know what the most passionate fans are thinking? I certainly would. And like it or not, fans views of moves directly impacts Ainge as a gm. How? If Ainge was somehow convinced that trading a player would lead to a 10% drop in ticket sales that certainly impacts on the margin if it is worthwhile. Celtics are still a business after all.

And frankly I think Ainge is making a mistake if he doesn't read realgm and sites like this. Some players KG, prime Shaq, Duncan, Lebron, KD (if healthy) are no brainers to sign as free agents if you can do so but more players fit into the category of tougher decision so why not read what the opposing fanbase says since those fans may have watched literally every game a particular player has played. Of course, rely more/first on feedback from former players/ex coaches/key contacts but he may not have strong relationships that he can rely upon in every case and sometimes people don't even give honest/correct feedback.

C's reportedly have a lean staff in basketball operations so while you want people thinking for themselves and not just doing "group think", you also do want other perspectives since you may be missing something.

[165bows]

I am dreaming of a scenario where we trade for Butler and free up enough cap room for Hayward, without having to actually use it, ultimately getting him via sign-and-trade... allowing us to then trade for Griffin.

Way too many moving parts, and would need both Hayward and Griffin to put a gun in their current teams' mouths, but let's say it happens in three parts.

1. A delayed draft night trade for Butler involving Nets 2017, Crowder, and a fully-guaranteed Zeller, not to be consummated until after Hayward trade.

2. Smart, Memphis pick, and Amir and Jerebko on Bogans contracts for Hayward.

3. Clippers pick, Bradley, resigned Olynyk and Yabu for Griffin.

IT
Butler/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Griffin
Horford/Zizic

What's your opinion of that without the Butler trade? Ie, if they could make two sign and trade deals?

Hard part is they trigger the hard cap and start coming on it quick. Needs to be some in season wiggle room.

[LarryBirdsFingr]

I am dreaming of a scenario where we trade for Butler and free up enough cap room for Hayward, without having to actually use it, ultimately getting him via sign-and-trade... allowing us to then trade for Griffin.

Way too many moving parts, and would need both Hayward and Griffin to put a gun in their current teams' mouths, but let's say it happens in three parts.

1. A delayed draft night trade for Butler involving Nets 2017, Crowder, and a fully-guaranteed Zeller, not to be consummated until after Hayward trade.

2. Smart, Memphis pick, and Amir and Jerebko on Bogans contracts for Hayward.

3. Clippers pick, Bradley, resigned Olynyk and Yabu for Griffin.

IT
Butler/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Griffin
Horford/Zizic

What's your opinion of that without the Butler trade? Ie, if they could make two sign and trade deals?

Hard part is they trigger the hard cap and start coming on it quick. Needs to be some in season wiggle room.

Im still drunk from last night but part of me remembers going over it, and singing the max fa and swindling a few deals to reduce salary and bump younger players from rhe past 3 yrs up the rotation

[LarryBirdsFingr]

Damn that was an awfully worded post, but you get it bows.

[ConstableGeneva]

Good read on why sign-and-trades are rare and maybe tricky to execute in practice even though they make sense in theory: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2017/05/why-nba-sign-and-trades-are-rare.html

[165bows]

Damn that was an awfully worded post, but you get it bows.

Nah man, literally no idea what you are talking about. Seriously that is a drunk version of every single post on here.

[Homerclease]

So, you guys think Wyc and DA read this forum?

Ainge based upon his comments and the fact that he is older doesn't strike me the type that would read realgm but I suspect a lot of gm's under 50 years old actually read team forums in lurk mode and similar sites.

Imagine if realgm was around in 1986 and someone 3 months before the draft said they were at a party and saw Len Bias using cocaine? I actually think its kind of irresponsible for Ainge/Wyc to not have someone they really trust to not just be reading this forum but others like it. 99% of the info may be of little use but if you can get something out of it, why not use it.

So, I believe there are at least a few high ranking Celtics employees that do read realgm and communicate some of the more relevant fan sentiment to them and how it is changing. If you had a business that is fan driven like the Celtics wouldn't you want to know what the most passionate fans are thinking? I certainly would. And like it or not, fans views of moves directly impacts Ainge as a gm. How? If Ainge was somehow convinced that trading a player would lead to a 10% drop in ticket sales that certainly impacts on the margin if it is worthwhile. Celtics are still a business after all.

And frankly I think Ainge is making a mistake if he doesn't read realgm and sites like this. Some players KG, prime Shaq, Duncan, Lebron, KD (if healthy) are no brainers to sign as free agents if you can do so but more players fit into the category of tougher decision so why not read what the opposing fanbase says since those fans may have watched literally every game a particular player has played. Of course, rely more/first on feedback from former players/ex coaches/key contacts but he may not have strong relationships that he can rely upon in every case and sometimes people don't even give honest/correct feedback.

C's reportedly have a lean staff in basketball operations so while you want people thinking for themselves and not just doing "group think", you also do want other perspectives since you may be missing something.

Well I was citing the wiretap that said several owners do in fact read these forums but for once we actually agree on something.

Someone else mentioned Mike Zarren and I think it was a fantastic point. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he lurked here to gauge fanbase reaction to potential moves

[Jingles]

If anyone in the C's FO took realgm to heart, the team would either be Thomas, Horford, and Butler, with everything else traded away to acquire the latter, or Brown, Rozier, and a bunch of D-leaguers with a thousand draft picks in the stable.

[Homerclease]

If anyone in the C's FO took realgm to heart, the team would either be Thomas, Horford, and Butler, with everything else traded away to acquire the latter, or Brown, Rozier, and a bunch of D-leaguers with a thousand draft picks in the stable.

Who said anything about taking realgm to heart? Total strawman arguement

[TheOGJabroni]

So, you guys think Wyc and DA read this forum?

Ainge based upon his comments and the fact that he is older doesn't strike me the type that would read realgm but I suspect a lot of gm's under 50 years old actually read team forums in lurk mode and similar sites.

Imagine if realgm was around in 1986 and someone 3 months before the draft said they were at a party and saw Len Bias using cocaine? I actually think its kind of irresponsible for Ainge/Wyc to not have someone they really trust to not just be reading this forum but others like it. 99% of the info may be of little use but if you can get something out of it, why not use it.

So, I believe there are at least a few high ranking Celtics employees that do read realgm and communicate some of the more relevant fan sentiment to them and how it is changing. If you had a business that is fan driven like the Celtics wouldn't you want to know what the most passionate fans are thinking? I certainly would. And like it or not, fans views of moves directly impacts Ainge as a gm. How? If Ainge was somehow convinced that trading a player would lead to a 10% drop in ticket sales that certainly impacts on the margin if it is worthwhile. Celtics are still a business after all.

And frankly I think Ainge is making a mistake if he doesn't read realgm and sites like this. Some players KG, prime Shaq, Duncan, Lebron, KD (if healthy) are no brainers to sign as free agents if you can do so but more players fit into the category of tougher decision so why not read what the opposing fanbase says since those fans may have watched literally every game a particular player has played. Of course, rely more/first on feedback from former players/ex coaches/key contacts but he may not have strong relationships that he can rely upon in every case and sometimes people don't even give honest/correct feedback.

C's reportedly have a lean staff in basketball operations so while you want people thinking for themselves and not just doing "group think", you also do want other perspectives since you may be missing something.

Well I was citing the wiretap that said several owners do in fact read these forums but for once we actually agree on something.

Someone else mentioned Mike Zarren and I think it was a fantastic point. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he lurked here to gauge fanbase reaction to potential moves

Would make sense to me. It's not even that they wouldn't pull the trigger on a deal if they knew beforehand that the fanbase would negatively react; it's more to be prepared of what to expect after the damage is done.

[165bows]

Good read on why sign-and-trades are rare and maybe tricky to execute in practice even though they make sense in theory: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2017/05/why-nba-sign-and-trades-are-rare.html

My guess is most of the ones that do occur have been in teams with certain criteria. Ie, competitive, salary-capped teams looking to add pieces for win-now moves.

Miami for LeBron/Bosh, Celtics and Courtney Lee, the Big Baby/Bass swap, etc. Once teams get good and expensive, s/t becomes pretty attractive. LAC, Utah, Houston, etc are those types of teams right now.

[Captain_Caveman]

I am dreaming of a scenario where we trade for Butler and free up enough cap room for Hayward, without having to actually use it, ultimately getting him via sign-and-trade... allowing us to then trade for Griffin.

Way too many moving parts, and would need both Hayward and Griffin to put a gun in their current teams' mouths, but let's say it happens in three parts.

1. A delayed draft night trade for Butler involving Nets 2017, Crowder, and a fully-guaranteed Zeller, not to be consummated until after Hayward trade.

2. Smart, Memphis pick, and Amir and Jerebko on Bogans contracts for Hayward.

3. Clippers pick, Bradley, resigned Olynyk and Yabu for Griffin.

IT
Butler/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Griffin
Horford/Zizic

What's your opinion of that without the Butler trade? Ie, if they could make two sign and trade deals?

Hard part is they trigger the hard cap and start coming on it quick. Needs to be some in season wiggle room.

Hard cap would be at roughly $135m, though. That team would come in easily below. We'd eat it hard on the lux tax for one year after that once IT needed to be resigned, but we'd survive.

If we kept the Nets pick and Crowder, that'd be OK too. But a little less strong at SG. Maybe sub Crowder in Griffin trade?

[165bows]

I am dreaming of a scenario where we trade for Butler and free up enough cap room for Hayward, without having to actually use it, ultimately getting him via sign-and-trade... allowing us to then trade for Griffin.

Way too many moving parts, and would need both Hayward and Griffin to put a gun in their current teams' mouths, but let's say it happens in three parts.

1. A delayed draft night trade for Butler involving Nets 2017, Crowder, and a fully-guaranteed Zeller, not to be consummated until after Hayward trade.

2. Smart, Memphis pick, and Amir and Jerebko on Bogans contracts for Hayward.

3. Clippers pick, Bradley, resigned Olynyk and Yabu for Griffin.

IT
Butler/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Griffin
Horford/Zizic

What's your opinion of that without the Butler trade? Ie, if they could make two sign and trade deals?

Hard part is they trigger the hard cap and start coming on it quick. Needs to be some in season wiggle room.

Hard cap would be at roughly $135m, though. That team would come in easily below. We'd eat it hard on the lux tax for one year after that once IT needed to be resigned, but we'd survive.

If we kept the Nets pick and Crowder, that'd be OK too. But a little less strong at SG. Maybe sub Crowder in Griffin trade?

According to Smitty's sheets, it is $127M for the tax apron, I wish it was higher.

Hayward/Griffin would be $60.6M combined. With Horford and IT combined are $34M, making $32M left for everyone else. it looks doable if they ship out either Crowder or Bradley and bring in the Nets '17.

Most sensible way I could think of to structure it is send AB to the Clippers (maybe they work in acquiring Melo) with other salaries going out, while KO would get also sign and traded to Utah for a bulk of the salary to Utah. Then they'd need to send out the contracts of Zeller, also resign and trade out Jerebko and likely Amir, and probably James Young, along with Mickey. Yabu could wait another year.
Edit: so something like this -

IT/Smart/Jackson = $12.2M
Jaylen/Nets '17 (#1 overall)/Rozier = $14M
Hayward/Crowder/Nader = $37.9M
Griffin/fill in guy/fill in guy = $31.9M
Horford/Zizic/fill in guy = $30.2
Total of $126.15M, just under the hard cap!

Problem is, they wouldn't have room for any in-season add-ons which is pretty much a necessity. They would get a little more wiggle room with a lesser pick, or move a guy like Rozier, or Smart, who especially would open up more room.

[Edug27]

For fun.. Let's say Indy lets the draft pass without moving Paul George. Then as the season approaches, they start feeling the heat to make a move. Who offers a better deal than Smart/Jaylen/2018 pick. Who can top such an offer? I don't see LA offering Ingram. And I would see Indy wanting to rebuild rather than retool with a veteran.

[Banks2Pierce]

Who offers a better deal than Smart/Jaylen/2018 pick. Who can top such an offer?

Who is going to top *only the 2018 pick* considering the weirdness of his pending FA? Lakers are especially in a weird spot if he is planning on going there and also could be roster thin at the top if they miss out on a 2017 lotto pick. Is there a good team out there that will part with a decent asset and can also still be good enough to be confident in retaining George? He's so good that the calculus on it could be weird and open up Lillard and other guys like that.

[FlatearthZorro]

Who offers a better deal than Smart/Jaylen/2018 pick. Who can top such an offer?

Who is going to top *only the 2018 pick* considering the weirdness of his pending FA? Lakers are especially in a weird spot if he is planning on going there and also could be roster thin at the top if they miss out on a 2017 lotto pick. Is there a good team out there that will part with a decent asset and can also still be good enough to be confident in retaining George? He's so good that the calculus on it could be weird and open up Lillard and other guys like that.

If it comes down to it, I'd take Butler instead. 2 years on hid deal, plenty of time to convince him to stay. Same player, just shorter still great competitor, questionable knees tho.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

For fun.. Let's say Indy lets the draft pass without moving Paul George. Then as the season approaches, they start feeling the heat to make a move. Who offers a better deal than Smart/Jaylen/2018 pick. Who can top such an offer? I don't see LA offering Ingram. And I would see Indy wanting to rebuild rather than retool with a veteran.

Really depends on whether or not LA gets their pick this year. If they end up drafting Ball (or Fultz), I could see them offering up Russell and Ingram plus a pick. Less risky for the Lakers to trade for him since George has made it known that he would like to be a Laker.

[Homerclease]

For fun.. Let's say Indy lets the draft pass without moving Paul George. Then as the season approaches, they start feeling the heat to make a move. Who offers a better deal than Smart/Jaylen/2018 pick. Who can top such an offer? I don't see LA offering Ingram. And I would see Indy wanting to rebuild rather than retool with a veteran.

That deal doesn't work under the cap. You're off like 10 million bucks

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

For fun.. Let's say Indy lets the draft pass without moving Paul George. Then as the season approaches, they start feeling the heat to make a move. Who offers a better deal than Smart/Jaylen/2018 pick. Who can top such an offer? I don't see LA offering Ingram. And I would see Indy wanting to rebuild rather than retool with a veteran.

That deal doesn't work under the cap. You're off like 10 million bucks

We'd probably throw in Zeller as the expiring deal.

[Edug27]

For fun.. Let's say Indy lets the draft pass without moving Paul George. Then as the season approaches, they start feeling the heat to make a move. Who offers a better deal than Smart/Jaylen/2018 pick. Who can top such an offer? I don't see LA offering Ingram. And I would see Indy wanting to rebuild rather than retool with a veteran.

That deal doesn't work under the cap. You're off like 10 million bucks

You can throw in the fillers as needed. (expirings)