All Aboard! Next Stop "2017 NBA Draft Lottery" All Things Draft Thread

[TheRev72]

Would NOP talk themselves into Davis for Fultz as a straight swap?

AD would be the dream. The "second coming" Wyc was talking about...

You have to ask yourself, though, why NO would do it. AD is first team all-NBA on a $22M per year "bargain" contract. You'd have to overwhelm them with a package that would give them an immediately competitive team around Boogie, so they can resign him after next year. (As it stands NO is in the opposite spot the C's are - they need better quality players across the board because their roster around AD/Boogie is a disaster, particularly if Holiday bolts.)

I think it would take at least Fultz + 2018 Nets + IT + Crowder. (Maybe costs Brown too.) That gives them a competitive team (IT/Crowder/Boogie) with high lotto prospects in the wings. Still not sure NO trades AD for anything, though.

Would be amazing though. Trade for AD to pair with Horford. Sign Hayward. Start Smart and Bradley at the guards. That's a "big 3" up front with tough, physical guards in the backcourt.

[TheOGJabroni]

but for some strange reason I know I would delight in the Lakers passing on Lonzo.

100% with you. Trade #2 for Paul George. LA will be stuck in mediocrity while the Ball family can go live in Indiana, with less media attention.

[Banks2Pierce]

DX's strengths and weaknesses vids on Collins mention his length as being average/weak and that looks quite bizarre in light of his measurements. Almost fail to acknowledge that he is the best shot blocker in the draft and try turning it into the weakness. The real issue in that respect is the fouling.

Looks like a pure 5 to me.

[aim2please]

Who do we like at pick 37? Draft and stash? An upperclassmen that may be more ready to contribute immediately? A project type player?

Considering roster spots, C's will most likely use their 2nd round picks on guys willing to go to Maine or a Euro. Like last year, it will all depend which one of the Euros is willing to stay there for a year or two.

International class isn't that strong this year, but two guys that will most likely be available in the 52-56 range are http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kostja-Mushidi-84715/ and http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Alpha-Kaba-76960/. Both have great bodies, but are projects. Worth a gamble for the future with extra picks in the 50s.

P.S. *Detective work* I checked Danny Ainge's twitter. In the last month or two he liked a bunch of tweets regarding draft prospects (mostly draftexpress videos). Most of them are about guys projected to go in the first round. (at least 3-4 about Fox and Anigbogu). Posts he liked about guys ranked 30+ in Top 100 at Draftexpress are: Harry Giles (34), Mathias Lessort (37), Thomas Bryant (39), Josh Hart (52), Mushidi (59), Damyean Dotson (68), Kaba (77) and Ilimane Diop (out of top 100). *detective work*

https://twitter.com/danielrainge/likes

I have no idea who guys like Bryant, Hart or Dotson are, but if C's draft them, you bet I'm gonna say I called it

[3D Chess]

That's some real nice detective work a2p!

Harry Giles is my target at 37, because who knows what he looks like with top tier rehab and care.

[Homerclease]

That's some real nice detective work a2p!

Harry Giles is my target at 37, because who knows what he looks like with top tier rehab and care.

Giles would be great at 37 but I think he's more likely to go lottery than second round just like Thon Maker last year. In fact I'm about 70/30 at this point that Giles goes top 10.

[Jingles]

That's some real nice detective work a2p!

Harry Giles is my target at 37, because who knows what he looks like with top tier rehab and care.

Giles would be great at 37 but I think he's more likely to go lottery than second round just like Thon Maker last year. In fact I'm about 70/30 at this point that Giles goes top 10.

If he doesn't slip that far, I hope Brooklyn drafts him (and every other raw/physically unprepared guy they can get their hands on).

[3D Chess]

That's some real nice detective work a2p!

Harry Giles is my target at 37, because who knows what he looks like with top tier rehab and care.

Giles would be great at 37 but I think he's more likely to go lottery than second round just like Thon Maker last year. In fact I'm about 70/30 at this point that Giles goes top 10.

Yep, someone is likely to take a swing before we get a chance.

[Slartibartfast]

Collins looks like a safe pick. IMO he has a higher floor but lower ceiling than Isaac.

I was trying to find a comp for him, Cody Zeller or Mason Plumlee with a jump shot came to mind. Above average athleticism, below average length, can switch on perimeter a little bit. Nothing wrong with that, I just think odds are against him being anything more than a low end starter/3rd big.

In fairness, I'm overall against using a high lotto pick on a tall white dude. (Cody Zeller, Kaminsky etc.) I was way off on Porzingis though, so there's that

So I just went back and watched all the Draftexpress video of Collins and I'm still not sold. I like his shot and his footwork, but worry about his ability to play in the interior and not get pushed around. He's got a pretty strong lower body but not upper body and he plays a little bit under the rim at times too. He bites on all sorts of pump fakes and fouls at a ridiculous rate, and that's against college scrubs. Oh yeah, he also basically never passes the ball under any circumstances.

All in all he seems like a bit of a project and is really more of a 4 than a 5. Definitely wouldn't consider him in the top 8 and probably not until mid-teens.

I'm with the two of you on this, except he he looks like a pure 5 to me. He looks like somewhat mobile as a 5, but not switchable enough to be a 4. With Horford and Zizic we don't have much need for another. What really kills it for me is the lack of length and lack of physicality (both weaknesses on the draftexpress video). Maybe he has a 9'3" standing reach, but when paired with his athleticism he plays as if he's smaller.

I wouldn't mind him at 12-18, but if we get #10 I'd hope for one of Isaac/Tatum/Jackson to drop. If none of those guys are available I'd have a hard time deciding between Collins and Anunoby. I haven't really watched much tape on any of these guys outside of the top 8, so I'm not going to flip if Ainge takes one guy over another.

I don't see how 23/14 with 4 blocks per 40 can be construed as playing smaller than his size. The guy was a statistical beast. He's also obviously still filling out - likely to be a much bigger dude as he gets older as his frame isn't really beanpole. Still 19.

[VeryMuchWoke]

I don't see how 23/14 with 4 blocks per 40 can be construed as playing smaller than his size. The guy was a statistical beast. He's also obviously still filling out - likely to be a much bigger dude as he gets older as his frame isn't really beanpole. Still 19.

I'm judging purely based on the DX video breakdowns (which seems to show him struggling against long/athletic competition), so you may be right. It just doesn't look like he has much athleticism outside of decent agility. A less agile, slightly bigger Cody Zeller looks like a good upside comp to me. That's not bad, but also not that exciting.

Do you project him as a 5 or 4, or is he versatile enough to do both?

[Slartibartfast]

DX's strengths and weaknesses vids on Collins mention his length as being average/weak and that looks quite bizarre in light of his measurements. Almost fail to acknowledge that he is the best shot blocker in the draft and try turning it into the weakness. The real issue in that respect is the fouling.

Looks like a pure 5 to me.

I think the assumption is white big guy = short arms.

True of all the Zellers and Plumlees, and KO and Kaminsky and Jason Smith, but there are other white big guys out there!

Withey has about the same standing reach and has been one of the best per minute shot-blockers in the NBA. Ditto Cole Aldrich.
Not the most flattering comps overall, but it's not like the shotblocking won't translate just because he's a white North American guy.

[Slartibartfast]

I don't see how 23/14 with 4 blocks per 40 can be construed as playing smaller than his size. The guy was a statistical beast. He's also obviously still filling out - likely to be a much bigger dude as he gets older as his frame isn't really beanpole. Still 19.

I'm judging purely based on the DX video breakdowns (which seems to show him struggling against long/athletic competition), so you may be right. It just doesn't look like he has much athleticism outside of decent agility. A less agile, slightly bigger Cody Zeller looks like a good upside comp to me. That's not bad, but also not that exciting.

Do you project him as a 5 or 4, or is he versatile enough to do both?

I say 5, but not in a bad way. A versatile 5 who will play good PNR D, block shots and stretch the floor. Myles Turner basically.

As for the Cody comp, he's not just bigger, he's got two dimensions that Cody sorely lacks - plus shotblocking and range on his J.

Give those to Cody and he'd be a stud instead of a solid rotation big.

[pasfru]

I don't see how 23/14 with 4 blocks per 40 can be construed as playing smaller than his size. The guy was a statistical beast. He's also obviously still filling out - likely to be a much bigger dude as he gets older as his frame isn't really beanpole. Still 19.

I'm judging purely based on the DX video breakdowns (which seems to show him struggling against long/athletic competition), so you may be right. It just doesn't look like he has much athleticism outside of decent agility. A less agile, slightly bigger Cody Zeller looks like a good upside comp to me. That's not bad, but also not that exciting.

Do you project him as a 5 or 4, or is he versatile enough to do both?

I say 5, but not in a bad way. A versatile 5 who will play good PNR D, block shots and stretch the floor. Myles Turner basically.

As for the Cody comp, he's not just bigger, he's got two dimensions that Cody sorely lacks - plus shotblocking and range on his J.

Give those to Cody and he'd be a stud instead of a solid rotation big.

What are your thoughts on Isaac?

[greenroom31]

I don't see how 23/14 with 4 blocks per 40 can be construed as playing smaller than his size. The guy was a statistical beast. He's also obviously still filling out - likely to be a much bigger dude as he gets older as his frame isn't really beanpole. Still 19.

Gotta look at the level of comp. He was playing against backups in the WCC. Also, he averaged 17 mpg and 2.7 fouls per game, so it's not like he even could've stayed on the court to play 40 minutes.

I wouldn't want him to get much heavier, it might limit his quickness and ability to rotate on the exterior. My perspective is that he's a decent value at late lottery, but hard to imagine him blocking shots at anywhere near the level he did in college against NBA caliber players. He also can't really put the ball on the floor or create for others offensively, so seems like a mostly catch and shoot, pick-and-pop type guy with occasional post-ups. Of course I've been wrong before, but just don't see him becoming a star.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Would NOP talk themselves into Davis for Fultz as a straight swap?

AD would be the dream. The "second coming" Wyc was talking about...

You have to ask yourself, though, why NO would do it. AD is first team all-NBA on a $22M per year "bargain" contract. You'd have to overwhelm them with a package that would give them an immediately competitive team around Boogie, so they can resign him after next year. (As it stands NO is in the opposite spot the C's are - they need better quality players across the board because their roster around AD/Boogie is a disaster, particularly if Holiday bolts.)

I think it would take at least Fultz + 2018 Nets + IT + Crowder. (Maybe costs Brown too.) That gives them a competitive team (IT/Crowder/Boogie) with high lotto prospects in the wings. Still not sure NO trades AD for anything, though.

Would be amazing though. Trade for AD to pair with Horford. Sign Hayward. Start Smart and Bradley at the guards. That's a "big 3" up front with tough, physical guards in the backcourt.

Why do they do anything? Fultz, Cousins and 40ish million in cap space.

Not likely, but theoretically possible they could be convinced.

We'd have trouble getting AD and having cap room or contracts to sign/sign&trade for Hayward.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Other point about Fultz - raw talent, but doing a lot with his superior athleticism - will still have some of that in the NBA, can rise up and shoot over people - but doesn't have a ton of "counters".

You can see a breakdown here - https://fansided.com/2017/05/10/markelle-fultz-ball-handling-kyrie-irving-nba-draft/ - that's praising him - he has a huge variety of dribble moves, but he tends to make *one*, go toward the basket, and then get a shot off with his athleticism or length. If he had a killer move and then another one once he's into the teeth of the defense, he could be incredible.

He's smooth, but the "playground" style is going to be marginally less effective against NBA defenses - his moves may not always work, or when they do, he may have less daylight getting to the rim or around rim protectors.

So that'd be my concern about how well or quickly or without adjustments his game will "translate". Fultz may have to add new skills. Ball, I think, is just going to have to learn NBA timing.

[Slartibartfast]

I don't see how 23/14 with 4 blocks per 40 can be construed as playing smaller than his size. The guy was a statistical beast. He's also obviously still filling out - likely to be a much bigger dude as he gets older as his frame isn't really beanpole. Still 19.

Gotta look at the level of comp. He was playing against backups in the WCC. Also, he averaged 17 mpg and 2.7 fouls per game, so it's not like he even could've stayed on the court to play 40 minutes.

I wouldn't want him to get much heavier, it might limit his quickness and ability to rotate on the exterior. My perspective is that he's a decent value at late lottery, but hard to imagine him blocking shots at anywhere near the level he did in college against NBA caliber players. He also can't really put the ball on the floor or create for others offensively, so seems like a mostly catch and shoot, pick-and-pop type guy with occasional post-ups. Of course I've been wrong before, but just don't see him becoming a star.

He showed pretty well against top level competition. And it's not like Gonzaga bigs have had a poor track record with the pro transition. Then look at how mediocre KO was as a bench big as a freshman for them. It's not a scrub paradise over there.

I really do think his shotblocking will translate - passes the eye test in a big way. The guy covers ground very quickly and has great timing. He will absolutely struggle with fouls and turnovers, but pretty good reason to expect that to ameliorate with age and seasoning.

And he doesn't need to put the ball on the floor or even be a great passer. If he can hit the 3, the mid-range and punish mismatches in the post he will a fine offensive weapon.

[rochrist]

That's some real nice detective work a2p!

Harry Giles is my target at 37, because who knows what he looks like with top tier rehab and care.

Giles would be great at 37 but I think he's more likely to go lottery than second round just like Thon Maker last year. In fact I'm about 70/30 at this point that Giles goes top 10.

At this point, you'd have to be insane to take Giles top ten, given the condition of his knees and the strength of the top ten in this draft.

[rochrist]

Other point about Fultz - raw talent, but doing a lot with his superior athleticism - will still have some of that in the NBA, can rise up and shoot over people - but doesn't have a ton of "counters".

You can see a breakdown here - https://fansided.com/2017/05/10/markelle-fultz-ball-handling-kyrie-irving-nba-draft/ - that's praising him - he has a huge variety of dribble moves, but he tends to make *one*, go toward the basket, and then get a shot off with his athleticism or length. If he had a killer move and then another one once he's into the teeth of the defense, he could be incredible.

He's smooth, but the "playground" style is going to be marginally less effective against NBA defenses - his moves may not always work, or when they do, he may have less daylight getting to the rim or around rim protectors.

So that'd be my concern about how well or quickly or without adjustments his game will "translate". Fultz may have to add new skills. Ball, I think, is just going to have to learn NBA timing.

And an entirely new way of shooting.

[165bows]

Next stop, new draft thread. That would make four this year if I'm not mistaken.

My thought for this post - Fultz is pretty freaking big. If he sticks at PG he will be the biggest true PG in the league.