Lebron's Decline

Moderators: Domejandro, infinite11285, Harry Garris, ken6199, Dirk, bisme37, KingDavid, bwgood77, zimpy27, cupcakesnake

What age will Lebron Significantly Decline

33
13
6%
34
23
10%
35
53
24%
36
54
24%
37
29
13%
38
16
7%
39
3
1%
40
3
1%
Older than 40
12
5%
He won't really decline before retirement and will retire as a top 5 player in the league
16
7%
 
Total votes: 222

User avatar
Vee-Rex
Starter
Posts: 2,494
And1: 2,666
Joined: Apr 17, 2015
     

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#21 » by Vee-Rex » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:16 am

Hangtime84 wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:Lebron offensive best year was this one statistically. His defensive decline has already happened.


His defensive peak was probably 2016, most certainly it was the best defensive playoff run of his career. His decline on that end was pretty overstated this season, it was more to do with opponents and roster construction than anything he did worse.


Miami Lebron was flying all over the place defensively and was crazy smart helpside.


2016 was undoubtedly the best defensive playoff run of LeBron's career. It was historical. His Miami Heat years don't even come close to it, box +/- aside (his DBPM at 5.8 was a career high in the playoffs). Personally, I'm not an enormous fan of BPM and DBPM. I feel better looking at RPM but the way cats throw RPM numbers out these days is just ridiculous. They clearly don't understand what they're doing. Still, his DBPM shows a career high in the 2016 playoffs and I don't think it can be completely discounted considering his man-to-man defense numbers were historical.

I suggest you examine LeBron's man-to-man defense via SportVu tracking.

In the 2016 playoffs (21 total games), LeBron had a WHOPPING -14.0 net differential. Guys he faced up against normally shot 45.9%FG, whereas when he was the man guarding them, they shot 31.9%FG. That's right, LeBron held all of his guys in the 2016 playoffs to 31.9%FG. -14.0 net differential.

And the scary part about it is he did it from everywhere on the court. Beyond the arc? -12.6 net differential. They shot 36.7 from 3pt range, but when LeBron guarded them, they shot 24.1% from 3pt range.

Inside the arc? -13.9 net differential. They shot 50.5% normally, but only 36.6% when guarded by LeBron.

Inside the paint? A SCORCHING -23.5 net differential. Opponents that LeBron defended normally shot 61.3% in the paint, but with LeBron actually guarding them, they shot 37.9% IN THE PAINT.

Miami/Evil LeBron was incredible, but none of his defensive performances can measure up to what he did in the 2016 NBA playoffs.
User avatar
homecourtloss
RealGM
Posts: 10,668
And1: 17,568
Joined: Dec 29, 2012

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#22 » by homecourtloss » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:32 am

Should have already happened, so who knows. But I would say the 2019 season.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effectā€¦
vxmike
Head Coach
Posts: 6,026
And1: 3,987
Joined: Sep 24, 2014
 

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#23 » by vxmike » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:32 am

laika wrote:1. Kareem---------------66300
2. Karl Malone---------62760
3. Kobe Bryant--------57280
4. Tim Duncan---------56740
5. Jason Kidd----------56200
6. Kevin Garnett------55700
7. Wilt Chamberlain--55420
8. Dirk Nowitzki-------54570
9. Elvin Hayes----------54160
10. John Stockton-----54160

25. LeBron James 50400

Lebron averages about 3500 minutes a year. No player in NBA history has been a top player after 55000 minutes. So that means that Lebron has 1 more year before he has to start doing something that literally NO ONE has ever done. Let's suppose that you think Lebron has the best longetivity in NBA history. Even then I think it would be extremely generous to say that he can do something absolutely unprecedented for more than 3 years.

So the answer to the question is 1-4 years before you start to become ridiculously optimistic.


Lebron is the greatest physical specimen in NBA history. Wilt is the only guy who can come close. He didn't play college ball and has acces to medical resources nobody on that list did until much later in their careers...the minutes thing is overblown.

Anyone talking about his "decline" must not watch very many of his games...he's still a man among boys and NEVER physically overmatched in any way. Sure he picks and chooses his battles defensively over the course of a season like any player giving heavy minutes, but there is no decline.

I voted 39. I think he'll transition to PF after age ~36 and destroy guys there with his quickness. He already has PF strength.
Hangtime84
RealGM
Posts: 20,228
And1: 4,373
Joined: Aug 18, 2006
Location: Rogers Park
     

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#24 » by Hangtime84 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:45 am

Vee-Rex wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
His defensive peak was probably 2016, most certainly it was the best defensive playoff run of his career. His decline on that end was pretty overstated this season, it was more to do with opponents and roster construction than anything he did worse.


Miami Lebron was flying all over the place defensively and was crazy smart helpside.


2016 was undoubtedly the best defensive playoff run of LeBron's career. It was historical. His Miami Heat years don't even come close to it, box +/- aside (his DBPM at 5.8 was a career high in the playoffs). Personally, I'm not an enormous fan of BPM and DBPM. I feel better looking at RPM but the way cats throw RPM numbers out these days is just ridiculous. They clearly don't understand what they're doing. Still, his DBPM shows a career high in the 2016 playoffs and I don't think it can be completely discounted considering his man-to-man defense numbers were historical.

I suggest you examine LeBron's man-to-man defense via SportVu tracking.

In the 2016 playoffs (21 total games), LeBron had a WHOPPING -14.0 net differential. Guys he faced up against normally shot 45.9%FG, whereas when he was the man guarding them, they shot 31.9%FG. That's right, LeBron held all of his guys in the 2016 playoffs to 31.9%FG. -14.0 net differential.

And the scary part about it is he did it from everywhere on the court. Beyond the arc? -12.6 net differential. They shot 36.7 from 3pt range, but when LeBron guarded them, they shot 24.1% from 3pt range.

Inside the arc? -13.9 net differential. They shot 50.5% normally, but only 36.6% when guarded by LeBron.

Inside the paint? A SCORCHING -23.5 net differential. Opponents that LeBron defended normally shot 61.3% in the paint, but with LeBron actually guarding them, they shot 37.9% IN THE PAINT.

Miami/Evil LeBron was incredible, but none of his defensive performances can measure up to what he did in the 2016 NBA playoffs.


I think that speaks more to the defenders Lebron with now. But I think he much more smarter overall as a player. I just don't see him doing the same things as he did in Miami. Maybe cause offensively he carries more for cavs
Jcool0 wrote:
aguifs wrote:Do we have a friggin plan?


If the Bulls do, you would be complaining to much to ever hear it.


NBA fan logic we need to trade one of two best players because (Player X) one needs to shine more.
TheWolfoftheNBA
Sophomore
Posts: 158
And1: 125
Joined: Dec 09, 2015

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#25 » by TheWolfoftheNBA » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:49 am

RCM88x wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:Lebron offensive best year was this one statistically. His defensive decline has already happened.


His defensive peak was probably 2016, most certainly it was the best defensive playoff run of his career. His decline on that end was pretty overstated this season, it was more to do with opponents and roster construction than anything he did worse.


Did you watch LeBron in 2012-2013. He was the best defensively and his best overall year.
Patches Perry
RealGM
Posts: 11,119
And1: 15,073
Joined: May 11, 2016
 

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#26 » by Patches Perry » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:20 am

Next season I think he comes out and wins MVP. Dominates regular season and playoffs. After that, I think he takes a big dip. So 2018-2019 probably. Players never last as long as we think they will.

That said - I do think he can have several good years as a top 10-15 player as well. That's the transition that needs to be graceful. If he can transition into a secondary superstar, at 34 or so, then he will make an even bigger dent in the history books.
User avatar
Ryoga Hibiki
RealGM
Posts: 11,134
And1: 6,508
Joined: Nov 14, 2001
Location: Warszawa now, but from Northern Italy

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#27 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:41 am

It's all about injuries. Being 39 I can tell you the physical decline is not that crazy, strength stays and straight line speed isn't too affected. You lose bounce and lateral speed, but then you can somewhat balance it with experience.
The real difference maker is that it takes forever to recover from an injury and get back in shape, and these guys are not amateurs who manage their long term health but are always at the edge. If he stays injury free LeBron can be an MVP level offensive player at 40, but he will need to change the way he plays on defense.

Sent from my Nokia 3210 using Tapatalk
Š”Š»Š°Š²Š° Š£ŠŗрŠ°ŠøŠ½Šµ!
User avatar
LakerLegend
RealGM
Posts: 12,641
And1: 6,915
Joined: Jun 15, 2002
Location: SoCal

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#28 » by LakerLegend » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:49 am

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:It's all about injuries. Being 39 I can tell you the physical decline is not that crazy, strength stays and straight line speed isn't too affected. You lose bounce and lateral speed, but then you can somewhat balance it with experience.
The real difference maker is that it takes forever to recover from an injury and get back in shape, and these guys are not amateurs who manage their long term health but are always at the edge. If he stays injury free LeBron can be an MVP level offensive player at 40, but he will need to change the way he plays on defense.

Sent from my Nokia 3210 using Tapatalk
There hasn't been more than a couple of players(Jordan Malone) who had MVP level offense at 35, let alone 40.
User avatar
DaddyCool19
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,107
And1: 6,380
Joined: Jul 28, 2013

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#29 » by DaddyCool19 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:33 am

I think he has 2 MVP'ish years left. Afterwards you could make him your PF and I think he could still put up 22/7/6 without even being the primary ballhandler with the right teammates.
Goon
Pro Prospect
Posts: 963
And1: 1,332
Joined: Nov 27, 2012

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#30 » by Goon » Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:55 am

Prince187 wrote:Whatever year the NBA get serious about testing for PED's

The whole NBA will decline when that happens. Not just LeBron.
Don Draper
General Manager
Posts: 8,677
And1: 506
Joined: Mar 09, 2008
Location: schƶnes Wetter

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#31 » by Don Draper » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:08 pm

Prince187 wrote:Whatever year the NBA get serious about testing for PED's

fishing for those and 1s
soda wrote:I will never, ever, ever vote for a socialist. I'd vote for a member of the KKK first. I'd vote for Hitler first, because the Nazis have less blood on their hands

This is the state of modern day political discourse.
User avatar
Dupp
RealGM
Posts: 112,066
And1: 66,677
Joined: Aug 16, 2009
Location: Lifelong Nuggets Fan
 

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#32 » by Dupp » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:13 pm

Hangtime84 wrote:
Vee-Rex wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:
Miami Lebron was flying all over the place defensively and was crazy smart helpside.


2016 was undoubtedly the best defensive playoff run of LeBron's career. It was historical. His Miami Heat years don't even come close to it, box +/- aside (his DBPM at 5.8 was a career high in the playoffs). Personally, I'm not an enormous fan of BPM and DBPM. I feel better looking at RPM but the way cats throw RPM numbers out these days is just ridiculous. They clearly don't understand what they're doing. Still, his DBPM shows a career high in the 2016 playoffs and I don't think it can be completely discounted considering his man-to-man defense numbers were historical.

I suggest you examine LeBron's man-to-man defense via SportVu tracking.

In the 2016 playoffs (21 total games), LeBron had a WHOPPING -14.0 net differential. Guys he faced up against normally shot 45.9%FG, whereas when he was the man guarding them, they shot 31.9%FG. That's right, LeBron held all of his guys in the 2016 playoffs to 31.9%FG. -14.0 net differential.

And the scary part about it is he did it from everywhere on the court. Beyond the arc? -12.6 net differential. They shot 36.7 from 3pt range, but when LeBron guarded them, they shot 24.1% from 3pt range.

Inside the arc? -13.9 net differential. They shot 50.5% normally, but only 36.6% when guarded by LeBron.

Inside the paint? A SCORCHING -23.5 net differential. Opponents that LeBron defended normally shot 61.3% in the paint, but with LeBron actually guarding them, they shot 37.9% IN THE PAINT.

Miami/Evil LeBron was incredible, but none of his defensive performances can measure up to what he did in the 2016 NBA playoffs.


I think that speaks more to the defenders Lebron with now. But I think he much more smarter overall as a player. I just don't see him doing the same things as he did in Miami. Maybe cause offensively he carries more for cavs[/quote]


Think its just because hes surrounded be incompetent defenders now so its hard to look as good as he did in miami. Although he did in 2016.
User avatar
macNcheese3
RealGM
Posts: 11,213
And1: 6,915
Joined: Jul 04, 2015
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada.
   

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#33 » by macNcheese3 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:13 pm

I cant say when he will decline maybe 3 more years could be sooner. But now he definitely needs a supporting cast more then ever.
BasketballFan7
Analyst
Posts: 3,668
And1: 2,344
Joined: Mar 11, 2015
   

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#34 » by BasketballFan7 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:14 pm

We don't know how Magic would have aged. We know that he came back after a long, long hiatus and came back to still shoot over 60 TS%, have a PER of over 20, and average 18-8-7 per 36 minutes. I wish we did know definitively, because that would be the closest analogue.

If LeBron is content to pile up assists, plant himself in the post, and cut to the basket when off ball... he can play as long as he wants, with or without a jumper.
FGA Restricted All-Time Draft

In My Hood, The Bullies Get Bullied
PG: 2013 Mike Conley, 1998 Greg Anthony
SG: 2005 Manu Ginobili, 2015 Khris Middleton
SF: 1991 Scottie Pippen
PF: 1986 Larry Bird, 1996 Dennis Rodman
C: 1999 Alonzo Mourning
User avatar
Ryoga Hibiki
RealGM
Posts: 11,134
And1: 6,508
Joined: Nov 14, 2001
Location: Warszawa now, but from Northern Italy

Re: RE: Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#35 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:19 pm

Lakerfan17 wrote:There hasn't been more than a couple of players(Jordan Malone) who had MVP level offense at 35, let alone 40.

I'm aware, I'm just saying that LeBron's offensive game I believe can age very well as long as he stays healthy.
He will have the strength and he will transition to more of a PF role in a small ball offence.
Once again, as long as he can stay healthy. Age itself won't slow him down this much, and I think he relies on hops much less than what people think.

Sent from my Nokia 3210 using Tapatalk
Š”Š»Š°Š²Š° Š£ŠŗрŠ°ŠøŠ½Šµ!
spicy6
Starter
Posts: 2,003
And1: 1,841
Joined: Apr 21, 2017
 

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#36 » by spicy6 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:44 pm

He hasnt and wont decline for another couple of years. People fail to see the warriors needed to add arguably the second best player in the world to a 73 win team with a unanimous mvp to beat lebron and lebron still averaged a triple double. Says a lot of how great this guy is.
tidho
General Manager
Posts: 9,405
And1: 3,061
Joined: Jun 12, 2009

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#37 » by tidho » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:23 pm

Prince187 wrote:Whatever year the NBA get serious about testing for PED's

Sooooo, never? LeBron is going to play forever!, lol.
Suspect its more HGH that's the issue not PEDs.

Anyway, he's already slowing down.
This is one of the more interesting aspects of his pending free agency. There's an extremely good chance that contract that Lakers fans are so eager to give him will be a bad one. Guy's going to be a $40M per anchor.
HeatedEnd
Sophomore
Posts: 241
And1: 129
Joined: Aug 10, 2015
     

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#38 » by HeatedEnd » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:30 pm

Since LeBron's game is not necessarily reliant on speed, he will just slowly just become more and more of a great passing post player with a semi-decent outside shot.
Golabki
General Manager
Posts: 8,333
And1: 1,058
Joined: Jan 31, 2005

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#39 » by Golabki » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:35 pm

nbafan38 wrote:Lebron has shown very little decline for his age but can't imagine he keeps it up forever. By what age will Lebron significantly decline?

LeBron is one of the most sophisticated dopers of all time. I'm confident that he will have a freakishly long peak.
Dr Spaceman
General Manager
Posts: 8,575
And1: 11,205
Joined: Jan 16, 2013
   

Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#40 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:57 pm

Hangtime84 wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:Lebron offensive best year was this one statistically. His defensive decline has already happened.


His defensive peak was probably 2016, most certainly it was the best defensive playoff run of his career. His decline on that end was pretty overstated this season, it was more to do with opponents and roster construction than anything he did worse.


Miami Lebron was flying all over the place defensively and was crazy smart helpside.


Activity doesn't equal efficacy. Cleveland LeBron is a much smarter defender and makes plays through positioning and reading sets. He was more spectacular in Miami but more effective in 2016.

No perimeter player in history has had as much impact defensively as LeBron did in the 2016 Finals. A lot of that is due to the Warriors' specific roster construction; a long guy who's athletic enough to guard Dray and switch onto Steph on the screen is pretty much their kryptonite since they didn't run any other plays.
ā€œIā€™m not the fastest guy on the court, but I can dictate when the race begins.ā€

Return to The General Board