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Political Roundtable Part XIV

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1581 » by dckingsfan » Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:16 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:What are the cost drivers in the ACA?

I know that single payer would lower the *level* of costs, but it wouldn't do anything about cost *growth.* What's making health care costs *rise* so fast?

I'm pretty sure it's that our system is profit driven, and so we focus our attention on what people are willing to pay for, like cures to cancer and so on. Other countries do research but only to reduce costs, not to address OH MY GOD MOM IS DYING OF CANCER DO SOMETHING ANYTHING. So we funnel our research towards the cures that people really, really want and, to be brutally honest about it, the rest of the world free rides on our research.

I think single payer might succeed in slowing health care cost growth by choking off the incentive to research the deadliest diseases. Frankly I'm not sure it's such a good idea. Maybe we should get the rest of the world to pay their fair share of our research costs?

Biggest cost drivers would be: pharma (yes, the rest of the world benfits), litigation and the cost of Malpractice Insurance, AMA (AMA vigorously restricting competition and reducing automation), Facility costs (much of it due to provider consolidation), Lack of cost consideration from patients (you want to make sure there are always some deductibles - hear that Bernie?), Fee-for-service (ever try to figure out that hospital stay :)), and high administrative expenses (that could be cured by something like single payer or made worse if done like the VA).

I put the high administrative expenses last - I think that the cost drivers listed earlier should be addressed first. It would then make the likelihood of a single payer or other system more likely to succeed.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1582 » by Zonkerbl » Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:31 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:What are the cost drivers in the ACA?

I know that single payer would lower the *level* of costs, but it wouldn't do anything about cost *growth.* What's making health care costs *rise* so fast?

I'm pretty sure it's that our system is profit driven, and so we focus our attention on what people are willing to pay for, like cures to cancer and so on. Other countries do research but only to reduce costs, not to address OH MY GOD MOM IS DYING OF CANCER DO SOMETHING ANYTHING. So we funnel our research towards the cures that people really, really want and, to be brutally honest about it, the rest of the world free rides on our research.

I think single payer might succeed in slowing health care cost growth by choking off the incentive to research the deadliest diseases. Frankly I'm not sure it's such a good idea. Maybe we should get the rest of the world to pay their fair share of our research costs?

Biggest cost drivers would be: pharma (yes, the rest of the world benfits), litigation and the cost of Malpractice Insurance, AMA (AMA vigorously restricting competition and reducing automation), Facility costs (much of it due to provider consolidation), Lack of cost consideration from patients (you want to make sure there are always some deductibles - hear that Bernie?), Fee-for-service (ever try to figure out that hospital stay :)), and high administrative expenses (that could be cured by something like single payer or made worse if done like the VA).

I put the high administrative expenses last - I think that the cost drivers listed earlier should be addressed first. It would then make the likelihood of a single payer or other system more likely to succeed.


So of the above factors, here are the *levels* factors:
litigation and malpractice (it's just a certain percentage of overall costs, right? It's not rising as a share of total costs is it?)
AMA restricting entry into medical practice
Facility costs, admin stuff
I think these things can be addressed without needing a single payer. All single payer does is give us negotiating leverage, which is only relevant if facing monopoly power. Bust the AMA and you don't really have any monopoly power to worry about. But solving these problems, intuitively, would just cause a one time decrease in costs. It wouldn't actually cause costs to rise any more slowly.

I just don't see anything single payer does that the individual mandate doesn't do better. Republicans screwed up - they went with the best solution first, now they have no negotiating room.

I don't know if the deductible issue is a level or a growth thing. I agree it's a problem. The only alternative is to have some stranger deciding how to ration limited health care services. I hate that solution.

The only thing obviously driving growth is pharma costs, which is connected to my "the rest of the world is free riding on our research" narrative.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1583 » by dckingsfan » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:35 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Litigation and malpractice (it's just a certain percentage of overall costs, right? It's not rising as a share of total costs is it?

It is rising - but you are right, basically a one time adjustment.
Zonkerbl wrote:AMA restricting entry into medical practice

This is a longer term growth (resource scarcity) issue. This one would have the potential to continue to drive down costs long-term.
Zonkerbl wrote:Facility costs

I will take this one separately - I think the "hospital monopolization" and their continued drive toward fee-for-service to be able to increase profit over time has been and will continue to be a long-term driver, a single payer system might help this or may have some interesting (not in a good way) unintended consequences.
Zonkerbl wrote:Admin stuff

Single payer could have the affect of simplifying the process or cause a governmental bureaucracy that drives us nuts. Not sure on this one.
Zonkerbl wrote:I think these things can be addressed without needing a single payer. All single payer does is give us negotiating leverage, which is only relevant if facing monopoly power. Bust the AMA and you don't really have any monopoly power to worry about. But solving these problems, intuitively, would just cause a one time decrease in costs. It wouldn't actually cause costs to rise any more slowly.

You have a very good point. We could address the cost drivers without single payer. And even relatively small decreases to the cost drivers would make our system solvent.
Zonkerbl wrote:I just don't see anything single payer does that the individual mandate doesn't do better. Republicans screwed up - they went with the best solution first, now they have no negotiating room.

Hehehe - boom!
Zonkerbl wrote:I don't know if the deductible issue is a level or a growth thing. I agree it's a problem. The only alternative is to have some stranger deciding how to ration limited health care services. I hate that solution.

By deductible, I mean co-pay or some skin in the game. When there are no costs to the recipient, they will overuse the system. Unlike with a cigarette tax (where you want them to stop using the product), in this case you just want a small fee so they don't use services they don't need.
Zonkerbl wrote:The only thing obviously driving growth is pharma costs, which is connected to my "the rest of the world is free riding on our research" narrative.

Agreed it is a leading driver - but some of the above are still drivers (they don't need a single payer system to address them though. And this one could be solved outside of single payer - just let drugs come in from other countries. Our pharma companies sell the drugs to other countries for much less than they sell them here.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1584 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:19 am

Letting our pharma companies sell drugs here at exorbitant prices is the only way they can recoup R&D costs. If we let cheap pharma flood in from Canada, we have to realize we are giving up one of the strongest incentives the WORLD has to cure deadly diseases.

Personally, having endured seeing my mother in law suffering from dementia, I'm not ready to make that sacrifice yet.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1585 » by dckingsfan » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:37 am

Zonkerbl wrote:Letting our pharma companies sell drugs here at exorbitant prices is the only way they can recoup R&D costs. If we let cheap pharma flood in from Canada, we have to realize we are giving up one of the strongest incentives the WORLD has to cure deadly diseases.

Personally, having endured seeing my mother in law suffering from dementia, I'm not ready to make that sacrifice yet.

It is a tough one. And you could make a case for each of the cost drivers... guessing you are not going to like this figure:

Image
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1586 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:40 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Letting our pharma companies sell drugs here at exorbitant prices is the only way they can recoup R&D costs. If we let cheap pharma flood in from Canada, we have to realize we are giving up one of the strongest incentives the WORLD has to cure deadly diseases.

Personally, having endured seeing my mother in law suffering from dementia, I'm not ready to make that sacrifice yet.

It is a tough one. And you could make a case for each of the cost drivers... guessing you are not going to like this figure:

Image


That's pathetic.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1587 » by TGW » Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:09 pm

I don't buy the idea that the free market drives innovation i.e. R&D. It's in humankind's best interest to create cures, not just because it puts money in people's pockets.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1588 » by montestewart » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:32 pm

TGW wrote:I don't buy the idea that the free market drives innovation i.e. R&D. It's in humankind's best interest to create cures, not just because it puts money in people's pockets.

I agree with you that it's in humankind's best interest, but still seems a disproportionate share of medical advances comes out of the US, motivated greatly by the market and profits. Maybe alternative models could accomplish the same or better.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1589 » by Wizardspride » Thu Jul 20, 2017 12:01 am

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President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1590 » by cammac » Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:25 am

Let me start by saying I am sad to hear about Senator McCain's illness he is a true hero not just a American hero and a man of honor. While I could disagree with some of the policies he favored his integrity could never be blemished. I would also like to add and give credit to Senator Flake of Arizona for standing up for a potential opponent who happens to be Muslim.

But back to politics it does open up a interesting scenario in that if McCain must resign because of illness yes a temporary Republican will take his place but a special election must be called. While McCain could not be defeated Flake is in some jeopardy from Trump running tea party type. Plus he will be running against the changing demographic of the state and any appointed Senator could possibly turn both Senate seats blue.

In Nevada Heller will have to fight a Trump delegated adversary in the primaries which costs money and bring out the worst in politics.

The most endangered Democrats in Montana, ND., Indiana, Missouri & WV. have gotten a huge break with the fiasco with the Republican Health Care plans.

The one really dark horse is Cruz in Texas could a credible opponent actually beat him using his views against him. Obviously this might be pie in sky thinking but in the right conditions he could be vulnerable.

Yes the Republicans could very well pick up a seat or two but I think it is no longer a given.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1591 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:00 am

TGW wrote:I don't buy the idea that the free market drives innovation i.e. R&D. It's in humankind's best interest to create cures, not just because it puts money in people's pockets.


Do you think market driven research would not create cures? I find this a very curious way to think about the world.

In what sense would a centrally planned health research agenda create an outcome superior to a market driven one? There's several decades of research showing the market driven outcome is the socially efficient one and central planning can only hope to approximate it.

When I ask this question on Quora, respondents tell me, "of course national health systems are motivated to research cures! They need to control costs!" So, in other words, the incentive to research cancer is driven entirely by the costs of current cancer treatments (radiation and chemotherapy), *not* the family's desire to not have their mom die of cancer! That's RIDICULOUS. It's offensive to me how dehumanizing and uncaring that attitude is. Is the purpose of citizenship to serve the government? Or does the government serve the people?

There's no market failures in the health care *research* market that I'm aware of, except the normal need for fundamental research that applies to all sciences. The more market freedom there the better.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1592 » by dobrojim » Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:16 pm

http://www.377union.com

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1593 » by Wizardspride » Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:55 pm

dobrojim wrote:http://www.377union.com

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1594 » by Wizardspride » Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:24 pm

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President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1595 » by Wizardspride » Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:36 pm

Read on Twitter

President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1596 » by Wizardspride » Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:40 pm

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President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1597 » by Wizardspride » Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:43 pm

Read on Twitter

President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1598 » by cammac » Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:54 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
TGW wrote:I don't buy the idea that the free market drives innovation i.e. R&D. It's in humankind's best interest to create cures, not just because it puts money in people's pockets.


Do you think market driven research would not create cures? I find this a very curious way to think about the world.

In what sense would a centrally planned health research agenda create an outcome superior to a market driven one? There's several decades of research showing the market driven outcome is the socially efficient one and central planning can only hope to approximate it.

When I ask this question on Quora, respondents tell me, "of course national health systems are motivated to research cures! They need to control costs!" So, in other words, the incentive to research cancer is driven entirely by the costs of current cancer treatments (radiation and chemotherapy), *not* the family's desire to not have their mom die of cancer! That's RIDICULOUS. It's offensive to me how dehumanizing and uncaring that attitude is. Is the purpose of citizenship to serve the government? Or does the government serve the people?

There's no market failures in the health care *research* market that I'm aware of, except the normal need for fundamental research that applies to all sciences. The more market freedom there the better.


Yes the USA is a world leader in the pharmaceutical industry but many of the drugs developed are not particularly new but new applications of older drugs. Innovation and new research happens all over the world and breakthroughs do come. I am sympathetic to your mother in laws condition and experienced myself with my mother in the latter stages of her life. But how many Americans die every year because of the inability to afford drugs?
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1599 » by verbal8 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:27 pm

Wizardspride wrote:
Read on Twitter


I guess for the Trump administration - "The less you know the better".
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XIV 

Post#1600 » by montestewart » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:25 pm

verbal8 wrote:
Wizardspride wrote:
Read on Twitter


I guess for the Trump administration - "The less you know the better".

I was expecting more of a Lysenko type :wink:

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