Kolkmania wrote:Duke4life831 wrote:
I think you would be in the vast minority on Carter and Brown over Ayton and Bagley. Not saying youre wrong just curious why so high on those two and low on the other two.
Marcus wrote:
why low on those two?
It's a matter of personal preferences and things I'm looking for in terms of "scouting" prospects. I value BB IQ over potential based on athleticism for instance. Let me state that I get the intrigue of Ayton and Bagley and absolutely agree with their ceiling outcome as franchise players in the NBA if everything falls into place. I just find it very unlikely that they hit those ceilings, for different reasons. In high school players who are physically overwhelming have a incredible advantage, you can't fault them for having so, but I do look for development throughout the years in the skills and mental part of the game. And I feel that both players have been roughly the same players for some time now.
Ayton has been a monster in high school for several years at this point, but when I watch a full game of him he still runs into spots where he doesn't belong, he doesn't play any defense, his motor is abysmal and his body language is even worse. Could he average 20 PPG in the NBA? Sure. But what is the value of a high usage big who doesn't have the mindset nor the IQ to play defense in the modern NBA?
Bagley is intriguing because of his mobility while being 6'10'', but besides that he's a jack of all trades, master of none. His jumper looks smooth, but his percentages are just horrible and I think he just doesn't posses the touch to convert. You don't want him to be a primary creator as well, he can't dribble in half court situations and his decision making is just very poor. For every nice dish he'll turn the ball over two times. So offensively he's a energy big with some limited dribbling abilities for me.
Defensively he's far better, but also a bit overrated for me. I've seen some games where he was absolutely dominant, he has the mentality to contest every shot around the basket, but he doesn't have the frame nor reach to consistently force misses against NBA athletes. Aside from that he's a great rebounder.
I'm higher on Bagley than Ayton and I'll place him in the same tier as Wendell Carter and Troy Brown, but he has to show me he's more than an energy big with defensive versatility to put him in the conversation for the #1 pick.
Regarding the two prospects I'm higher on than the consensus. I feel that Wendell Carter is criminally underrated. He's not extremely long, but he has the reach of a center and unlike Bagley he has the frame to absorb contact at the rim. Apart from that he's just so much smarter from a positional perspective than Ayton for example, despite being shorter and less athletic I remember him outplaying him under the boards and from a scoring perspective as well. His handle is really good for a big as well making him capable passing from the short roll.
Troy Brown's archetype is just really valuable in the NBA. He's a wing who's comfortable operating as a secondary or tertiary playmaker. He's such a willing passer in transition (loves to make quick passes like Lonzo Ball) and he rarely makes the wrong decision. Combine that with a nearly 7 foot wingspan, willingess to defend, good looking shooting motion and he's exactly what you want from a modern NBA player.
