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Political Roundtable Part XV

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#321 » by nate33 » Fri Sep 8, 2017 11:27 am

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:But enough with the numbers. You are an economist and I'm sure you understand that we don't often get opportunities to run massive social experiments over a period of decades with perfect control groups. It would be nice to run the experiment that you suggest, but we both know it'll never happen. You have to go with the data that you have. For now, ALL the data we have, in whatever country, city or county you want to pick, whether you normalize for poverty or not, will show blacks having a higher violent crime rate than whites. At some point, you need to apply Occum's Razor.

But, what has happened is that the "data" was used in the worst possible way. We used the data to have a "war on crime" and a "war on drugs" and those initiatives have turned out the same way as the prohibition - we wasted our resources and treasure. Also look at our numbers of incarcerated as a percentage of our population - we have a systematic problem driven by fear.

Let's take it another way.

Let's let all out of jail that have committed non-violent crimes (especially those having to deal with drugs) immediately. We know that economically this is the right decision - especially against backdrop of continually dropping crime.

Let's take some of those funds and put it against all those that are incarcerated on violent behavior that didn't result in fatalities and get them out of the system just as fast as possible.

But that won't happen - they will just look at "data" of violent behavior and use fear to continue to incarcerate people at high rates. And this will result in an ever shrinking pool of money that goes toward education and infrastructure and ever increasing taxes.

So, although you may focus on the "data", those same numbers drove really bad decisions for this country.

This is an entirely different issue. It is one in which I agree with you for the most part. Our criminal justice system is unquestionably flawed and we incarcerate far too many people (of all races) for non violent crimes and misdemeanors that arguably shouldn't be crimes at all. We would do better if we spent some of that money on more preventative measures like drug treatment and mental institutions. But let's not act like this would be some kind of magic bullet. The crime rate in several U.S. cities is appallingly high and letting out minor criminals and non-violent criminals isn't going to fix the problem.

What we really need are more jobs for the unskilled workers. Employed people don't have time to commit crime, and they have more to lose if they get caught. Also, having a job provides a sense of self-fulfillment and more of a sense of belonging to the community. This is why I favor Trump's economic policies of trade protectionism and restriction of low skill immigrants.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#322 » by nate33 » Fri Sep 8, 2017 11:32 am

payitforward wrote:Some months ago, I asked that this thread be taken down. I had concluded from crappy evidence that it had come into existence as a podium for nate's ideas. Monte, doc & some others demonstrated to me that I was incorrect about that.

In the months that followed I mostly stayed away from the thread, but in the end I returned to it. & I've come to value the diversity of experience, opinion & analysis here. I'm grateful to those who helped me get past my objections.

For that reason alone I would be disappointed if things got nasty between ...well between anyone here. That will shut down discussion. Nobody says life is easy; nobody says people will agree; nobody says you won't hear people say negative things about those w/ whom you identify (or about you, for that matter).

Once, in this thread, I asked if people would talk about how they came to hold their political opinions. The response to had request was, in general, pretty negative. I still think it would increase understanding. But, if not that, then I hope something will happen to lower the heat.

I had avoided this thread too, but Zonker dragged me back into it by calling me out on this subject. (I'm not mad at Zonker, he was being civil about it.) I regret being sucked back in. I'll go back to avoiding this thread.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#323 » by popper » Fri Sep 8, 2017 2:22 pm

I've really enjoyed this thread. Although my political leanings are different than the majority here I've learned a lot about the thinking and positions held by those on the opposite end of the spectrum. It has helped me to be more understanding of D's and their mindsets (some positive and some not so much).
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#324 » by DCZards » Fri Sep 8, 2017 2:45 pm

I find this debate about the habits, history and alleged innate behavior of African Americans maddeningly frustrating. Why is it that we only seem to dissect the behavior and traits of black people on this thread?

I won’t add to the debate other than to say that I am EXTREMELY proud of--and marvel at--what black folks have achieved and overcome in this country, often against odds and obstacles that most would shrink from. We are indeed a majestic people.

As to Nate’s suggestion that the races should live separate and apart: I live in upper NW DC, and spend a lot of time in downtown Silver Spring, MD, which has to be one of the most racially and ethnically diverse areas of the DMV...if not the country. I don’t get why anyone would not want to avail themselves of the rich experiences and cultural enlightment that comes from living amongst that kind of diversity. I'm sure I would be absolutely miserable living in the kind of homogenous (safe) setting that Nate seems to advocate for...where everyone walks, talks and looks like me
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#325 » by doclinkin » Fri Sep 8, 2017 5:08 pm

payitforward wrote:Once, in this thread, I asked if people would talk about how they came to hold their political opinions. The response to had request was, in general, pretty negative. I still think it would increase understanding. But, if not that, then I hope something will happen to lower the heat.


I get busy with life, but this was something I asked as well, in specific of nate, to help clear up some cognitive dissonance of how one can respect a person and completely (occasionally) violently disagree with them on a particular topic. But then I got busy and distracted by life and lazyass and failed to answer the bell to pin down my own prejudices and where they came from.

I still intend to do that. But I'm still busy and a lazyass who is distracted by life. I will get back to it though. Eventually.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#326 » by doclinkin » Fri Sep 8, 2017 5:16 pm

DCZards wrote:I find this debate about the habits, history and alleged innate behavior of African Americans maddeningly frustrating. Why is it that we only seem to dissect the behavior and traits of black people on this thread?

I won’t add to the debate other than to say that I am EXTREMELY proud of--and marvel at--what black folks have achieved and overcome in this country, often against odds and obstacles that most would shrink from. We are indeed a majestic people.

As to Nate’s suggestion that the races should live separate and apart: I live in upper NW DC, and spend a lot of time in downtown Silver Spring, MD, which has to be one of the most racially and ethnically diverse areas of the DMV...if not the country. I don’t get why anyone would not want to avail themselves of the rich experiences and cultural enlightment that comes from living amongst that kind of diversity. I'm sure I would be absolutely miserable living in the kind of homogenous (safe) setting that Nate seems to advocate for...where everyone walks, talks and looks like me


Just had a great time shimmying at an Ethiopian day celebration at the pavillion in downtown Silver Spring (with a black girl friend and mixed godson), and some weeks before that at a bachata concert with my ethncially diverse daughter. Then we ate sushi.

I don't see america as a melting pot, but but a gumbo. A chili. A stew. You need a mess of different flavors and spices to make the thing savory. Sometimes that includes a bit of firey a bit of bitter. One reason I do like this thread.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#327 » by montestewart » Fri Sep 8, 2017 5:30 pm

DCZards wrote:I find this debate about the habits, history and alleged innate behavior of African Americans maddeningly frustrating. Why is it that we only seem to dissect the behavior and traits of black people on this thread?

I won’t add to the debate other than to say that I am EXTREMELY proud of--and marvel at--what black folks have achieved and overcome in this country, often against odds and obstacles that most would shrink from. We are indeed a majestic people.

As to Nate’s suggestion that the races should live separate and apart: I live in upper NW DC, and spend a lot of time in downtown Silver Spring, MD, which has to be one of the most racially and ethnically diverse areas of the DMV...if not the country. I don’t get why anyone would not want to avail themselves of the rich experiences and cultural enlightment that comes from living amongst that kind of diversity. I'm sure I would be absolutely miserable living in the kind of homogenous (safe) setting that Nate seems to advocate for...where everyone walks, talks and looks like me

I've lived in Logan/Shaw/Downtown most of my adult life, and I've enjoyed so much of what this city has. For a non-port city, there has always been a wide variety of restaurants, thanks to the diplomatic corps. I certainly got more exposure to go go and hip hop (to name just a few kinds of music) and slam poetry and theater than I likely would have in Arlington. Coaching in DC Rec and church leagues and getting my *** kicked on DC courts showed me a lot about how the city game is played. Teaching at Cardoza gave me a lot of insight into the joys and sorrows of city school systems.

Living within diversity, most people don't really even have to try to very hard, as preconceptions will gradually be supplanted by concrete information. I see this among my own white family and friends; generally, those most apprehensive of others are those with the least exposure to others. Most people in this city, country, world are just trying to live their lives and get along, and the more people interact, without superficially defined and tacitly enforced divisions, the better for everyone.

payitforward wrote:Once, in this thread, I asked if people would talk about how they came to hold their political opinions. The response to had request was, in general, pretty negative. I still think it would increase understanding.

The above info probably speaks a little to that question, and my upbringing prepared me somewhat to seek out and experience different things. When I was younger, I never really thought of my parents as anything but my parents, but at some point I realized they were the union of a Jew and a WASP (pardon the phrasing, but that was literally how it was described in those days) and that their parents didn't really like the marriage. It was like they were all afraid of the boogeyman. I started early on distrusting prejudice.

My parents were interested in politics, and Federal employees cannot be involved in national politics, so they became very involved in Arlington politics, joining and organizing for Arlingtonians for a Better County (ABC, as they always called it) which, as my mother described it, was an organization that advocated for better services in South Arlington, then as now the poorer half of the county (south of Route 50). They frequently held meetings at our house, and though I never had a clue what they were talking about, I could see they were passionate and they sure sounded like they knew what they were talking about. Politics was something people cared enough about to devote their free time to it.

In 1968 my mother chose to support Nixon (in hindsight, I think his quasi-libertarian shtick and pledge to deescalate the Vietnam War attracted her). My father supported Humphrey. They put posters up in the house advertising their preferred choices. We thought that was funny until Nixon won and they were divorced by the end of the year. Politics breaks up families. Re the Vietnam War, over time I came to see that the escalation of that war could be attributed to both Democrats and Republicans, which contributed early on to a distrust of political parties.

My father worked for the State Department, traveled around the world, seemed to speak every language, exposed us to all sorts of food (especially East Asian and Middle Eastern cuisines), and came back from trips with pictures and stories of cultures quite unlike anything I had experienced. One summer, we had two Nigerian men stay as guests at our house, and since there were no blacks living in our community (our complex had a restrictive covenant, subsequently deemed unconstitutional), this was a novelty to me and, as I later learned, the cause of great consternation among some of our neighbors. These things, people, places, cultures, beliefs that were different and interesting to me were different and disturbing to some people.

I know that's more anecdote than insight, and it's a long time ago, but I think these early observations and experiences had a lot of influence on the way I see things now. Growing up, my better informed older sister was my guide on most specific political views, although she's a pretty straight down the line liberal today and sometimes seems disappointed that I don't join her in every position.

About the only other thing I can add is that I've always had many relatives that were conservatives/Republicans, with many relatives starting in Kansas/Oklahoma/southeast Colorado and many ending up in the central valley of California. Reagan people. That experience has taught me how to politely disagree without calling someone a moron and upsetting Thanksgiving dinner. Likewise, I'm a bit of an outlier at Jewish family get togethers if Israel-Palestine comes up.

I've seen some of these people change, so why not offer an alternate point of view? My stepfather, who was a lifelong Republican, surprised me by voicing support for Jesse Jackson, and after later voting for George W, voted for Obama twice. My mother, attracted to libertarianism, eventually abandoned the Republican party as "hopelessly bigoted" and increasingly in the thrall of Christian conservatism. She had a popular California cousin who came out, forcing a number of the California conservatives to confront their homophobia. Both my younger sisters were briefly Republicans, but appear to have abandoned the party for reasons similar to my mother's reasons.

This tome is for you, hands...

PS: A lot of the above is exactly why I engage in discussions with people on issues (race, gender, religion, to name a few) about which we strongly disagree. I don't blame anyone for faulting that approach, and maybe it's not always the right way, but it's the only way I know, and sometimes I think I've actually seen it work.

EDIT TO ADD: My mother was an engineer and a very smart woman, and she and my three sisters and my wife--all of them quite talented in their own rights--have had a great influence on the way I view the intelligence and abilities of women.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#328 » by dckingsfan » Fri Sep 8, 2017 5:55 pm

nate33 wrote:This is an entirely different issue. It is one in which I agree with you for the most part. Our criminal justice system is unquestionably flawed and we incarcerate far too many people (of all races) for non violent crimes and misdemeanors that arguably shouldn't be crimes at all. We would do better if we spent some of that money on more preventative measures like drug treatment and mental institutions. But let's not act like this would be some kind of magic bullet. The crime rate in several U.S. cities is appallingly high and letting out minor criminals and non-violent criminals isn't going to fix the problem.

What we really need are more jobs for the unskilled workers. Employed people don't have time to commit crime, and they have more to lose if they get caught. Also, having a job provides a sense of self-fulfillment and more of a sense of belonging to the community. This is why I favor Trump's economic policies of trade protectionism and restriction of low skill immigrants.

Well, it is part of the same issue - numbers were used to justify building the prison industrial complex. But when the numbers started falling - we didn't disassemble the same complex.

And although the crime is "appallingly" high, it is "dramatically" falling. and only the former gets mentioned in the press.

And yes, it rehabilitation is a the bullet. And yes, letting minor criminals and non-violent criminals out is the casing on the bullet.

But, we never get to using the bullet - because folks fall back on those numbers you cite - and then it becomes institutional racism. Intentional or not - so then you become part of the problem.

And then we don't have the employees we need so we need immigrants. And we put our money to prisons instead of schools. So, although your numbers are numbers - they are in fact a part of the problem.

We took a temporary detour with Donald "boy" Trump (Reagan's quote that boys will be boys but boys should not be President). And that will end badly. And much of his support came from those same type of numbers. My guess is that it will put the Rs into the minority for quite some time.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#329 » by montestewart » Sat Sep 9, 2017 5:18 pm

No surprise here: Kris Kobach, vice-chairman of the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, doesn't understand the difference between evidence and proof. Or maybe he doesn't understand logic. Or maybe he's using just using the Trump model of literally saying anything he feels like, no matter how nonsensically ridiculous, so long as it advances his career/personal interests.

Kobach-authored BLOCKBUSTER! expose in Breitbart, a publication with the courage to print it!

The commission and its results are a waste of time and resources, a Trump red herring like "where's Obama's birth certificate." People who focus on facts already know this is a partisan diversion from actual voter suppression, rather than a reasonable suspicion of voter fraud. I pity any poor saps on the commission who are actually trying to examine and analyze facts.

Those who do not understand the difference between reasonable suspicion and false allegation will continue to dance to the obnoxious music of partisan extremist outlets that on-the-fly redefine guilt, innocence, proof, evidence, facts, reasonable suspicion, false allegation, and any other useful word or phrase hindered only by its meaning.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#330 » by Wizardspride » Sat Sep 9, 2017 5:40 pm

Read on Twitter

President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#331 » by payitforward » Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:08 am

popper wrote:I've really enjoyed this thread. Although my political leanings are different than the majority here I've learned a lot about the thinking and positions held by those on the opposite end of the spectrum. It has helped me to be more understanding of D's and their mindsets (some positive and some not so much).

Awright! You go, popper!
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#332 » by payitforward » Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:43 am

nate33 wrote:...Our criminal justice system is unquestionably flawed and we incarcerate far too many people (of all races) for non violent crimes and misdemeanors that arguably shouldn't be crimes at all. We would do better if we spent some of that money on more preventative measures like drug treatment and mental institutions. But let's not act like this would be some kind of magic bullet. The crime rate in several U.S. cities is appallingly high and letting out minor criminals and non-violent criminals isn't going to fix the problem.

What we really need are more jobs for the unskilled workers. Employed people don't have time to commit crime, and they have more to lose if they get caught. Also, having a job provides a sense of self-fulfillment and more of a sense of belonging to the community. This is why I favor Trump's economic policies of trade protectionism and restriction of low skill immigrants.

There are no magic bullets when it comes to issues like these. But lowering incarceration rates would be a good thing all the same. For one thing, jail time doesn't make it more likely that once out of jail a person is likely to find a job.

One terribly complex problem is that there just are not going to be "more jobs for the unskilled workers." Protectionist trade policies won't help with that -- how would they? Moreover, they tend to raise costs. For example, have you looked at what Trump's protectionism has done to the price of lumber?

As to "low skill immigrants," I take you to be pointing mostly at Hispanic immigrants from Mexico and/or Central America -- is that right? If so, it's unclear to me where they have taken jobs from from anyone. Certainly a large proportion of them do jobs others won't seek or accept -- agricultural labor, for example. At the same time, I'm sure there are some cases where you would be right.

But the big issue is that low-skill jobs are going away. & this trend is structural; it's based on technology; it's not changing; it's certainly not something that trade policies can change. All protectionism can do is artificially buoy up our ability to do things economically in the US that we can't do at a competitive level of efficiency. Since all economic growth is based on increased productivity, that's a poor idea.

In short, it would be better to say that what we need is more jobs for high-skill workers! & social policies in every field that help us increase the percentage of our citizenry that has those skills.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#333 » by cammac » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:22 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:...Our criminal justice system is unquestionably flawed and we incarcerate far too many people (of all races) for non violent crimes and misdemeanors that arguably shouldn't be crimes at all. We would do better if we spent some of that money on more preventative measures like drug treatment and mental institutions. But let's not act like this would be some kind of magic bullet. The crime rate in several U.S. cities is appallingly high and letting out minor criminals and non-violent criminals isn't going to fix the problem.

What we really need are more jobs for the unskilled workers. Employed people don't have time to commit crime, and they have more to lose if they get caught. Also, having a job provides a sense of self-fulfillment and more of a sense of belonging to the community. This is why I favor Trump's economic policies of trade protectionism and restriction of low skill immigrants.

There are no magic bullets when it comes to issues like these. But lowering incarceration rates would be a good thing all the same. For one thing, jail time doesn't make it more likely that once out of jail a person is likely to find a job.

One terribly complex problem is that there just are not going to be "more jobs for the unskilled workers." Protectionist trade policies won't help with that -- how would they? Moreover, they tend to raise costs. For example, have you looked at what Trump's protectionism has done to the price of lumber?

As to "low skill immigrants," I take you to be pointing mostly at Hispanic immigrants from Mexico and/or Central America -- is that right? If so, it's unclear to me where they have taken jobs from from anyone. Certainly a large proportion of them do jobs others won't seek or accept -- agricultural labor, for example. At the same time, I'm sure there are some cases where you would be right.

But the big issue is that low-skill jobs are going away. & this trend is structural; it's based on technology; it's not changing; it's certainly not something that trade policies can change. All protectionism can do is artificially buoy up our ability to do things economically in the US that we can't do at a competitive level of efficiency. Since all economic growth is based on increased productivity, that's a poor idea.

In short, it would be better to say that what we need is more jobs for high-skill workers! & social policies in every field that help us increase the percentage of our citizenry that has those skills.


I liked your post payitforward yes education is one of the keys to racial harmony. Nate can use statistics which is nice and are accurate but they are also just numbers that do not take social factors and the ability of people to change their place in life. It is interesting in the NAFTA process the USA negotiators are hounding Mexico about its unfair labor policies and using monetary incentives to lure business and factories to Mexico. At the same time many right to work states and most states compete to give significant benefits to companies. A prime example is the proposed Foxconn investment in Wisconsin which is likely a fraud. The Trump administration is also working at warp speed to eliminate workers safety and EPA regulations that protect society.

The reality is that education is inferior in minority areas of the USA which does create major problems in that it doesn't allow upwards mobility of people. Does a student in South East Chicago get a similar education to a student in North East Chicago. Lack of future and the inability of getting a job creates the reality that illegal practices are one of the few ways to move up the ladder.

Yes this is over simplified but isn't different than utilizing statistics that are just numbers without context.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#334 » by gtn130 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:21 pm

Read on Twitter


Just askin' questions.

I do wonder how pro-statue morons adopted the absurdist slippery slope rhetoric.

Spoiler:
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#335 » by JWizmentality » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:02 pm

Fox News ever on the crusade to dumb down America...and harass female co-workers. It's a thankless job.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#336 » by montestewart » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:02 pm

gtn130 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Just askin' questions.

I do wonder how pro-statue morons adopted the absurdist slippery slope rhetoric.

Spoiler:
Image

It starts with a Confederate statue and the next thing you know they're pulling off your ugly tie!
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#337 » by Ruzious » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:33 pm

gtn130 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Just askin' questions.

I do wonder how pro-statue morons adopted the absurdist slippery slope rhetoric.

Spoiler:
Image

The slippery slope is when you put people like that on tv, they'll make ever increasingly stupid and inflamatory comments
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#338 » by cammac » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:17 pm

Nate has used statistics to in his mind that African Americans are more prone to violence than the rest of humanity.
So I picked a country that happens to be White/Asian which is Russia and USA
These statistics are from 2014
http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Russia/United-States/Crime/Violent-crime#2014
Guns per 100 people residents Russia 8.9 USA 88.8
Intentional Murder Rate Russia 12 USA 4.7 Russia has about 4 times the violent crimes
Murder Rate per million people Russia 102.5 USA 42.01

You can look at more but this statistically proves that White/Asian Societies are much more violent than a racially mixed population of the USA.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#339 » by Wizardspride » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:35 pm

Interesting.

Read on Twitter

President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XV 

Post#340 » by gtn130 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:22 pm

cammac wrote:Nate has used statistics to in his mind that African Americans are more prone to violence than the rest of humanity.
So I picked a country that happens to be White/Asian which is Russia and USA
These statistics are from 2014
http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Russia/United-States/Crime/Violent-crime#2014
Guns per 100 people residents Russia 8.9 USA 88.8
Intentional Murder Rate Russia 12 USA 4.7 Russia has about 4 times the violent crimes
Murder Rate per million people Russia 102.5 USA 42.01

You can look at more but this statistically proves that White/Asian Societies are much more violent than a racially mixed population of the USA.


Whites and asians are obviously genetically predisposed to violence. Very bad hombres!

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