Draft Lottery Reform & Resting Player Fines, Approved by B of Gov's. 09-28-17 ~ Woj

[Homerclease]

Butler/Winslow >>> Jaylen/Rozier

Not by a little, by a lot.

Not because of Winslow.

Ehhh... he is 21 and we are pretty good at developing guys. And he's better than either Jaylen or Rozier. But point being, it would have given us an extra top-tier trade asset.

He IS 21, but I disagree with the rest. I don't think he's better than Jaylen or Rozier, he hasn't shown any improvement at all since joining the league nor has he been able to stay healthy. He's about to lose his job to Josh Richardson. The new car smell is wearing off this kid very quickly

[Captain_Caveman]

Not because of Winslow.

Ehhh... he is 21 and we are pretty good at developing guys. And he's better than either Jaylen or Rozier. But point being, it would have given us an extra top-tier trade asset.

He IS 21, but I disagree with the rest. I don't think he's better than Jaylen or Rozier, he hasn't shown any improvement at all since joining the league nor has he been able to stay healthy. He's about to lose his job to Josh Richardson. The new car smell is wearing off this kid very quickly

IMO, he's definitely a better prospect than Rozier, and comparable to Jaylen. Think you are running too far upfield with the rest of that. Dude had one injury early in his second season, and we have never seen him play at an age older than Jaylen is right now.

[LarryBirdsFingr]

Blowing the farm on winslow would have looked really **** stupid right about now. This board, in that parallel universe would probably be in flames

[Patsfan1081]

Ehhh... he is 21 and we are pretty good at developing guys. And he's better than either Jaylen or Rozier. But point being, it would have given us an extra top-tier trade asset.

He IS 21, but I disagree with the rest. I don't think he's better than Jaylen or Rozier, he hasn't shown any improvement at all since joining the league nor has he been able to stay healthy. He's about to lose his job to Josh Richardson. The new car smell is wearing off this kid very quickly

IMO, he's definitely a better prospect than Rozier, and comparable to Jaylen. Think you are running too far upfield with the rest of that. Dude had one injury early in his second season, and we have never seen him play at an age older than Jaylen is right now.

Winslow's offense has been horrible since he's entered the league, his three point shot makes Smart look like Curry. Brown was actually decent efficiently his rookie year, the ceiling offensively looks pretty substantial.

[Captain_Caveman]

Blowing the farm on winslow would have looked really **** stupid right about now. This board, in that parallel universe would probably be in flames

Oh, yeah... trading up for Winslow was going to be way too prohibitive, no doubt. That was clear in real time.

But Homer was referring here to a late season tank job that would had us finishing higher in the draft that year.

Then all hell broke loose in the thread, lol.

[sully00]

How many teams are actually tanking year in year out? Orlando hasn't, they signed Biyombo and traded for Ibaka. Phoenix hasn't, they signed Tyson Chandler and almost Aldridge and tried to trade for Kyrie and allegedly Love. Brooklyn sure as hell hasn't. The Lakers paid up big for Mozgov and Deng.

Everyone is saying this is a major issue but who are these teams that are doing this? And the league basically put the cabosh on what Philly did. Philly is basically the only one who did it. A draft wheel would be a massive overreaction and mistake.

The NBA's parity problems lies in the max contracts, getting a LeBron, Steph, or a KD at the max is the biggest bargain you can get from a value/production stand point.

While PHI took it to a ridiculous level, multiple teams every year will intentionally tank. Most teams don't make it their organizational philosophy it is just something you resort to in Jan or Feb when hope is kind of lost. Last year LAL, PHO, and ORL were intentionally losing games based roster and line up management. I think the Lakers actually got concerned the league would come down on them near the end of the year.

The changes proposed will not stop teams from rebuilding it just stops you from losing hard. It won't stop losing teams from dealing away pending FA's but it might stop them from resting all of their competitive players for the month of March.

It is also better for the losing teams. Feature your young guys let them have that Linsanity moment maybe even sell some tickets
because people will want to watch rookies and young guys who are trying to win but if your resting those guys or playing not to win nobody wants to watch that garbage.

I get tanking for 1:4 odds but who the hell is going to lose on purpose to get a 14% of winning? Is there even a ratio for that?

Won't just be the top pick, though. Lottery would be the top 4 picks, and under this proposal, the cumulative odds of that are pretty good even if you aren't one of the worst teams. As in, maybe 8th worst with a roughly 50% shot at a top 4 pick.

Exactly, the only advantage in forcing your team to lost games will be in how bad your position can be, is a less attractive sell for all involved. If we lose 78 games we may only slide back to 5th not that exciting.

[celtxman]

We all understand why the original draft was set up the way it was. To give the bad teams or teams that were getting old a chance to get good again. It is so much more complex today than it ever was, and if you have good management you will find a way. I'm a proponent of the wheel system because it allows for EVERYBODY to have an equal chance of getting good players. I think we are simply afraid to let go of the draft because it is all we know.
Let's face it - we've been all over the place with the draft. Remember the early years when the teams with the worst record ended up drafting #4 overall. So everything changed so that the worst teams would have better odds. Ironic isn't it?
I understand the thought that who in their right mind would tank with a 14% chance of winning the lottery. And yet we watched Rick Pitino made a career decision, moved his family to Boston because he was convinced he was getting Tim Duncan......with a 42% chance of being right. He would say later he wouldn't have come to Boston if he thought he wasn't getting Duncan.
Whether it's 14% or 42% why not just get rid of the draft? Why is it so wrong to reward the good teams with a high draft pick sometimes? Two of the best teams (Boston/Golden State) built their teams with the assets they had without any top 5 picks (you know "Top 5 pick" - the term that almost made it to the dictionary as a requirement for winning championships - because of this board.
Going forward winning championships will be more about money management and hoping your team's owners have strong stomachs when you approach being championship level. I would so enjoy it to know that every game I see is straight - and if a team is playing young players they are legitimately doing it to develop their team

[Parliament10]

NBA board of governors to vote on draft lottery reform, resting players
Adrian Wojnarowski | ESPN | 09-15-17

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20710936/nba-board-governors-vote-draft-lottery-reform-sept-28

The competition committee also recommended a plan to the board of governors to curb the resting of healthy players in the regular season, league sources told ESPN. The proposed guidelines for resting players will encourage teams to sit healthy players for home rather than away games, and discourage the practice during nationally televised games.

The board of governors will vote on instituting the changes at a meeting in New York on Sept. 28. The plans will need a two-thirds majority to pass into legislation.

The NBA's proposed changes to the system would begin with the 2019 draft and include a smoothing-out of odds among the league's worst teams, league sources said.

For example, the three worst teams currently have a 25 percent, 19.9 percent and 15.6 percent chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick, respectively. Under the new plan, those teams would each have a 14 percent chance, league sources said, and the odds for ensuing teams would drop incrementally by a percentage point or two.

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[Dave_From_NB]

We all understand why the original draft was set up the way it was. To give the bad teams or teams that were getting old a chance to get good again. It is so much more complex today than it ever was, and if you have good management you will find a way. I'm a proponent of the wheel system because it allows for EVERYBODY to have an equal chance of getting good players. I think we are simply afraid to let go of the draft because it is all we know.

We (if we're talking about Celtics fans) are afraid to let go of the draft because the organizational advantage of having great ownership and management is negated with the wheel.

[Banks2Pierce]

We (if we're talking about Celtics fans) are afraid to let go of the draft because the organizational advantage of having great ownership and management is negated with the wheel.

The advantage of good management could increase with a wheel. GSW armed with a top 5 pick to either draft or trade would be scary, just as an example. I think I'd be in favor of a wheel, but maybe only in terms of how mad it'd be and the hype surrounding it.

[Froob]

We all understand why the original draft was set up the way it was. To give the bad teams or teams that were getting old a chance to get good again. It is so much more complex today than it ever was, and if you have good management you will find a way. I'm a proponent of the wheel system because it allows for EVERYBODY to have an equal chance of getting good players. I think we are simply afraid to let go of the draft because it is all we know.

We (if we're talking about Celtics fans) are afraid to let go of the draft because the organizational advantage of having great ownership and management is negated with the wheel.

The wheel doesn't address the real issues caused by the soft cap and max contracts, so not sure why we would do that. Anyone expecting a serious improvement in quality of games from the wheel is pretty off here in my opinion.

[3D Chess]

Little worried about the impact this may have on that SAC pick - must be really really hard for Danny to place a value on that pick at the moment (assuming LA doesn't convey, which I guess is something like 50/50?).

[The Corey's]

Just means you now have 4 slots to tank for instead or 1

This isn't gonna solve anything. It just increases the amount of teams with the same odds

[Curmudgeon]

Yes, it's a very modest change. The teams with bad records are still a lock to pick in the top 5.

[SMTBSI]

I agree that flattening the odds is not the long term solution. But, I do think it could actually do a little bit of good.

The issue isn't that some teams are really bad. Sometimes it's the right call to go into a rebuild, and that that means selling off vets and losing a lot of games. Fans understand that.

The issue is that there are circumstances where single games become must lose (or, even every game in a stretch of games). When a team goes into a contest that the organization feels they absolutely, positively, must lose - say, late in the season against a fellow tanker near them in the standings - that's when you get those absolute horror shows of blatant non-competitiveness.

If you flatten the odds enough, perhaps you can reach a point where there are bad teams, but no one is trying absolutely as hard as they possibly can to lose a specific game. (Or, at least not more than once or twice a year).

I think that's what these reforms are targeting: reaching a point where teams say, "Okay, we need to be in the bottom five for sure, but, we don't need to pull out all the stops for every single loss possible, because there's just not that much difference between #1 and #5. It doesn't torpedo our franchise if we happen to pick up a win against another bottom-dweller in January."

[Froob]

Any small market team approving lottery reform with no changes to the rest of the system is stupid, plain and simple.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

It got approved today. Nice!!

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[DK-All Day]

Why are we always 10 steps behind Danny Ainge?

[chakdaddy]

I agree that flattening the odds is not the long term solution. But, I do think it could actually do a little bit of good.

The issue isn't that some teams are really bad. Sometimes it's the right call to go into a rebuild, and that that means selling off vets and losing a lot of games. Fans understand that.

I think this is a plenty good long term solution. No gimmicks. No advantage in deep diving and fighting for slots 1 and 2. Very little advantage in fighting out for worse records in the middle of the pack.

The only better plan I could imagine is randomizing the whole top 8 so no more guaranteed pick 6 instead of 7 by losing that last game.

I believe the Philly style "tanks" are truly just a drastic rebuild and part of the problem. The real problem is the Spurs type in season tank job where you bench healthy/healed stars for the sake of bottoming out. Same with Lakers the last few years.

Too bad this won't help our chance with the Lakers pick this year. Next year...it helps our chances of a high Sacto pick, but also helps Philly's chances of keeping the #1 pick. There's always a slim chance Philly is worse than Sacto in 2019 though if Embiid continues to get hurt.

Bottom line looks like a great improvement to me, regardless of whether it helps or hurts the LA/SAC pick.

[chakdaddy]

It got approved today. Nice!!

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To me - this is a wonderful job of keeping the highest odds at the top and really eliminating any break points where it's worth tanking for the extra odds of the next slot (or missing the playoffs.) No wheel gimmicks, no insane playoffs gimmick, just the best and most elegant system they've had.