Offensive distribution, will there be an odd man out?

[Klomp]

Crawford is a creator whereas Bazz is a finisher. The fact that they both score a lot doesn't mean they do so in the same ways.

Exactly

[KGdaBom]

I think Taj will start and Dieng will play more minutes. Gibson is a better fit with our starting lineup for his defense (especially leadership/communication).

Taj is the first sub out, and when Towns subs out Dieng is the C and should be very good vs backups in the post.

Dieng has more value on the bench for us, Gibson has more value starting.

This is where I'm at, as well.

As long as Dieng gets 30 MPG I'm ok with this, but I really think Dieng will start.

[shrink]

FGA's is what made me question the signing of Crawford. His game is not really what MIN needs, but maybe his off the court professionalism is.

This signing led me to believe Thibs spent the money on Crawford to show KAT and Wiggins how to be a professional and have a long career. From there. it showed me that MIN's goal wasn't necessarily to win every game he could this year, but to invest in KAT and Wiggins longterm, with such signings as Taj.

I wonder if we had retained Bazz(assume at the minimum) on the first day of free agency, that Crawford would have still been pursued as a potential signing. While he still may have been for the off court reasons you mentioned, Bazz can be a scorer off the bench which somewhat diminishes the need for the things Crawford brings. Just a thought.

Crawford is a creator whereas Bazz is a finisher. The fact that they both score a lot doesn't mean they do so in the same ways.

Do you disagree that Crawford is yet another guy who needs the ball in his hands to be effective?

[Klomp]

Do you disagree that Crawford is yet another guy who needs the ball in his hands to be effective?

All players do.

No player can make a basket without the ball in his hands.
No player can make a pass without the ball in his hands.

[shrink]

Do you disagree that Crawford is yet another guy who needs the ball in his hands to be effective?

All players do.

No player can make a basket without the ball in his hands.
No player can make a pass without the ball in his hands.

Half of a player's effectiveness comes from defense - i don't see that from Crawford at all.

On offense, my understanding of Crawford is that he is not much of a passer, and he doesn't do a lot of catch-and-shoot three's. He creates offense, but mainly just for himself.

I worry about this a little as well for our current team changing from Rubio to Teague. Teague is more of a scorer, and less of a defender, and that's not really what are team is lacking. We need players like Dieng who can help a team without having the ball in his hands, because many of these guy's usage will have to drop, and they will need to find ways to be effective.

[shangrila]

I wonder if we had retained Bazz(assume at the minimum) on the first day of free agency, that Crawford would have still been pursued as a potential signing. While he still may have been for the off court reasons you mentioned, Bazz can be a scorer off the bench which somewhat diminishes the need for the things Crawford brings. Just a thought.

Crawford is a creator whereas Bazz is a finisher. The fact that they both score a lot doesn't mean they do so in the same ways.

Do you disagree that Crawford is yet another guy who needs the ball in his hands to be effective?

Of course not. Why would you even ask that?

[shrink]

Crawford is a creator whereas Bazz is a finisher. The fact that they both score a lot doesn't mean they do so in the same ways.

Do you disagree that Crawford is yet another guy who needs the ball in his hands to be effective?

Of course not. Why would you even ask that?

Because there is only one basketball.

When I look at this team impartially, I think from a functional standpoint it needs a trade. We have added lots of talent, and will beat many teams on sheer talent alone. However, we are not constructed efficiently to maximize that talent. Butler and Wiggins have overlap. Taj and Dieng have overlap. Many players have value on the offensive end, and need shots. We don't have enough outside shooting.

However, as I've mentioned previously, I do not believe our free agent moves were made to be a functionally efficient team next year. I think Thibs realizes that superstars are the only way to win in the NBA, and each choice was made to improve Towns and Wiggins. Their biggest weakness is defense, and as Klomp said elsewhere, Butler and Taj can be "translaters" for Thibs defense - maybe the two best players for that role in the NBA. I don't think Teague is an upgrade on Rubio, but he will provide better spacing, and KAT and Wiggins will learn how to make more plays without so many spoon-fed assists in the future. Crawford isn't what MIN needs off the bench either, but he is perhaps the best example in the NBA right now of how to be a professional and have a long career, which is clearly our hope for KAT and Wiggins as well.

So this year, I will enjoy the wins, and be happy about the playoffs. However, my main focus will be on the growth of Towns and Wiggins, and what they will become two years from now.

[KGdaBom]

Do you disagree that Crawford is yet another guy who needs the ball in his hands to be effective?

Of course not. Why would you even ask that?

Because there is only one basketball.

When I look at this team impartially, I think from a functional standpoint it needs a trade. We have added lots of talent, and will beat many teams on sheer talent alone. However, we are not constructed efficiently to maximize that talent. Butler and Wiggins have overlap. Taj and Dieng have overlap. Many players have value on the offensive end, and need shots. We don't have enough outside shooting.

However, as I've mentioned previously, I do not believe our free agent moves were made to be a functionally efficient team next year. I think Thibs realizes that superstars are the only way to win in the NBA, and each choice was made to improve Towns and Wiggins. Their biggest weakness is defense, and as Klomp said elsewhere, Butler and Taj can be "translaters" for Thibs defense - maybe the two best players for that role in the NBA. I don't think Teague is an upgrade on Rubio, but he will provide better spacing, and KAT and Wiggins will learn how to make more plays without so many spoon-fed assists in the future. Crawford isn't what MIN needs off the bench either, but he is perhaps the best example in the NBA right now of how to be a professional and have a long career, which is clearly our hope for KAT and Wiggins as well.

So this year, I will enjoy the wins, and be happy about the playoffs. However, my main focus will be on the growth of Towns and Wiggins, and what they will become two years from now.

It is still a very good chance that two years from now Jimmy Butler is still the best player on the team. Jimmy Butler is the best closest impersonation of LeBron James in the NBA.

[ace625214]

I might have to amend my predictions after the preseason. Bjelica seems to be more recovered than earlier reports indicated and Teague is taking a lot more shots early in the shot clock than I expected. If this trend continues, I see KAT losing a shot or so and Wiggins losing multiple. Something more like 17/14.5/14/13 instead of the 18/17.5/15.5/10 I went with initially.

[Klomp]

It's obviously early, but here are the FGAs through 2 preseason games.

Teague 12.5
Towns 12.0
Wiggins 11.5
Gibson 11.5
Muhammad 11.0
Dieng 9.0
Butler 6.0
Bjelica 6.0
Jones/Brooks 6.0
Crawford 3.0

[C.lupus]

It's obviously early, but here are the FGAs through 2 preseason games.

Teague 12.5
Towns 12.0
Wiggins 11.5
Gibson 11.5
Muhammad 11.0
Dieng 9.0
Butler 6.0
Bjelica 6.0
Jones/Brooks 6.0
Crawford 3.0

and minutes per game. Obviously things will change shortly.


Gibson 27.7
Muhammad 26.3
Wiggins 25.8
Teague 25.6
Crawford 25.3
Dieng 24.4
Towns 23.6
Bjelica 20.3
Butler 19.1
Jones 13.9

[shangrila]

It's obviously early, but here are the FGAs through 2 preseason games.

Teague 12.5
Towns 12.0
Wiggins 11.5
Gibson 11.5
Muhammad 11.0
Dieng 9.0
Butler 6.0
Bjelica 6.0
Jones/Brooks 6.0
Crawford 3.0

and minutes per game. Obviously things will change shortly.


Gibson 27.7
Muhammad 26.3
Wiggins 25.8
Teague 25.6
Crawford 25.3
Dieng 24.4
Towns 23.6
Bjelica 20.3
Butler 19.1
Jones 13.9

Obviously, but we've really got to hope the starters aren't pushing 40mpg as the season goes on. I'm really worried about that.

[KGdaBom]

It's obviously early, but here are the FGAs through 2 preseason games.

Teague 12.5
Towns 12.0
Wiggins 11.5
Gibson 11.5
Muhammad 11.0
Dieng 9.0
Butler 6.0
Bjelica 6.0
Jones/Brooks 6.0
Crawford 3.0

and minutes per game. Obviously things will change shortly.


Gibson 27.7
Muhammad 26.3
Wiggins 25.8
Teague 25.6
Crawford 25.3
Dieng 24.4
Towns 23.6
Bjelica 20.3
Butler 19.1
Jones 13.9

Obviously, but we've really got to hope the starters aren't pushing 40mpg as the season goes on. I'm really worried about that.

I am virtually certain the starters won't be anywhere close to 40. I doubt any of them even get 38. I personally don't have any problem with highly conditioned professional athletes playing 38 minutes of basketball every other night. On Back to Back try to keep it to 35.

[fattymcgee]

Mamba is right. I mentioned this in a thread about adding Carmelo Anthony a few days ago, but here are some numbers:

2016-17 Field Goal Attempts

19.1 Wiggins
18.0 Towns
18.0 Butler
11.1 Teague
10.6 Crawford

8.1 Dieng
7.8 Gibson
7.7 Shabazz
5.5 Bjelica
3.5 Tyus
1.4 Aldrich
-----------------
110.8 FGA

Last year, the highest FGA any team had was 87.7

Anyone want to try projecting a new number that gets us down to even 87?

87 is too low unless you are predicting all eleven of those guys play all 82 games.

[Klomp]

Mamba is right. I mentioned this in a thread about adding Carmelo Anthony a few days ago, but here are some numbers:

2016-17 Field Goal Attempts

19.1 Wiggins
18.0 Towns
18.0 Butler
11.1 Teague
10.6 Crawford

8.1 Dieng
7.8 Gibson
7.7 Shabazz
5.5 Bjelica
3.5 Tyus
1.4 Aldrich
-----------------
110.8 FGA

Last year, the highest FGA any team had was 87.7

Anyone want to try projecting a new number that gets us down to even 87?

87 is too low unless you are predicting all eleven of those guys play all 82 games.

Yep. Just as an example, total the Wolves' FGAs last year and you get 106.7, not the 84.4 they actually averaged as a team.

[shangrila]

and minutes per game. Obviously things will change shortly.


Gibson 27.7
Muhammad 26.3
Wiggins 25.8
Teague 25.6
Crawford 25.3
Dieng 24.4
Towns 23.6
Bjelica 20.3
Butler 19.1
Jones 13.9

Obviously, but we've really got to hope the starters aren't pushing 40mpg as the season goes on. I'm really worried about that.

I am virtually certain the starters won't be anywhere close to 40. I doubt any of them even get 38. I personally don't have any problem with highly conditioned professional athletes playing 38 minutes of basketball every other night. On Back to Back try to keep it to 35.

Looking at the team, I'd agree. Our bench is decent this year; not the best but far from the worst.

My worry comes from both Thibs' history and the fact we've missed the playoffs for so many years. If we're on the outside looking in to the playoffs this year I could easily see guys being run into the ground just to make it.

[Klomp]

It'll be interesting to see the rotation shake out. I think we have a good handle on who the top 10 guys will be, but I'm not confident on how big of a role the 10th man (Jones) will have. I still question if they'll fully hand the keys over to him. Wouldn't surprise me if Thibs runs a 9-man rotation with Jones sprinkled in occasionally.

A lineup we haven't seen yet, but I wonder if we'll see Crawford, Butler, Wiggins, Muhammad, Towns all in the same lineup at some point.

[Klomp]

The Wolves played at a decent pace last year, averaging 84.4 fga per game. Teague & company should maintain that pace, so an estimate of 84 shots per game might still work. Efficiency improves with better shot selection. Ideally there are always 3 scorers on the floor, with a slasher and pick setter. Two scorers behind the 3 point line with one in the post is optimum, and still leaves room for a pick setter to run pick and rolls with the slasher while having two 3 point shooters and a man in the post to pass to.

Wiggins, Crawford and Bazz will be the ones taking significantly less shots, but so should Gibson, Bjelica and Teague.

Typical Shot Attempt Average for the season based on 84 shots per game and 10 Man Rotation

16 Karl Towns (2 less than last year)
15 Wiggins (4.1 less than last year. Wiggins needs to become more EFFICIENT anyway. This is his chance to be selective)
13- 15 Jimmy Butler (1.5 to 3.5 less than last year, but he has a lot more help. Towns and Wiggins are more efficient, anyway)
9 Jeff Teague (2.1 less than last year, but he has a lot more help)
8 Gorgui Dieng(0.1 less than last year, about the same)
5 Jamal Crawford (5.6 less than last year, Thibodeau's biggest challenge)
5 Taj Gibson(2.8 less than last year, but he never was a shooter)
4 Tyus Jones (1 more than last year)
4 Shabazz Muhammad (3.7 less than last year, but he's got more supporters now). Can Thibs keep Bazz in Check?
3 Nemanja Bjelica (2.5 less than last year, but he doesn't have to be the guy anymore. Another guy Thibs has to put the damper on)

That is a fairly balanced offense, and should take some pressure off of Butler and Crawford in particular. Keeping the right balance in field goal attempts will be crucial to prevent the offense from disintegrating into a playground game, and allowing the offense to become more efficient and less predicatable.
Patton could end up taking Bjelica's minutes one year from now.

If Thibs can get the team to do that, I think that between 48 and 53 wins is doable, with an expected total of 50 or 51 wins.

Through only 2 games, this is really not that far off....

16.5 Wiggins
13.5 Towns
13.0 Butler
8.0 Teague
8.0 Gibson
7.5 Crawford
6.5 Bjelica
4.0 Muhammad
3.5 Dieng
2.5 Jones

[Jammer]

The Wolves played at a decent pace last year, averaging 84.4 fga per game. Teague & company should maintain that pace, so an estimate of 84 shots per game might still work. Efficiency improves with better shot selection. Ideally there are always 3 scorers on the floor, with a slasher and pick setter. Two scorers behind the 3 point line with one in the post is optimum, and still leaves room for a pick setter to run pick and rolls with the slasher while having two 3 point shooters and a man in the post to pass to.

Wiggins, Crawford and Bazz will be the ones taking significantly less shots, but so should Gibson, Bjelica and Teague.

Typical Shot Attempt Average for the season based on 84 shots per game and 10 Man Rotation

16 Karl Towns (2 less than last year)
15 Wiggins (4.1 less than last year. Wiggins needs to become more EFFICIENT anyway. This is his chance to be selective)
13- 15 Jimmy Butler (1.5 to 3.5 less than last year, but he has a lot more help. Towns and Wiggins are more efficient, anyway)
9 Jeff Teague (2.1 less than last year, but he has a lot more help)
8 Gorgui Dieng(0.1 less than last year, about the same)
5 Jamal Crawford (5.6 less than last year, Thibodeau's biggest challenge)
5 Taj Gibson(2.8 less than last year, but he never was a shooter)
4 Tyus Jones (1 more than last year)
4 Shabazz Muhammad (3.7 less than last year, but he's got more supporters now). Can Thibs keep Bazz in Check?
3 Nemanja Bjelica (2.5 less than last year, but he doesn't have to be the guy anymore. Another guy Thibs has to put the damper on)

That is a fairly balanced offense, and should take some pressure off of Butler and Crawford in particular. Keeping the right balance in field goal attempts will be crucial to prevent the offense from disintegrating into a playground game, and allowing the offense to become more efficient and less predicatable.
Patton could end up taking Bjelica's minutes one year from now.

If Thibs can get the team to do that, I think that between 48 and 53 wins is doable, with an expected total of 50 or 51 wins.

Through only 2 games, this is really not that far off....

16.5 Wiggins
13.5 Towns
13.0 Butler
8.0 Teague
8.0 Gibson
7.5 Crawford
6.5 Bjelica
4.0 Muhammad
3.5 Dieng
2.5 Jones

About 3 shots per game currently being taken by Taj Gibson need to be re-distributed to Karl Towns.

The problem with Gibson is instead of playing the role of pick setter, even if he has to set 2 picks and then roll on one offensive possession, defenses back off Gibson and let him have the shot. And he's stupid enough to take it. So the worst shooter on the floor ends up taking the shot too often. Gibson is most effective boxing out, taking charges, rebounding, shooting within 5 feet of the basket and SETTING SCREENS. Literally someone on the coaching staff has to sit him down privately, explain the 5 on 4 defense tactic (defenses often sag off Gibson because the other 4 players on the court are usually better shooters), and one of the coaches has to privately explain to Gibson to start passing out of the situations where he has been taking open shots, start not being the pick & pop guy but be the pick & roll guy where he ends up closer to the basket, and just let the six best shooters on the team (Towns, Wiggins, Butler, Jones, Crawford and Teague) have their fair share of shots. But Gibson was only credited with 5 FGA in the last game so maybe he's starting to be smarter.

Gibson and Towns also have to learn that when they roll to the hoop after a screen, they have to turn in the direction where they can maintain eye contact with the ball handler so if there is a lob pass it doesn't end up a turnover because they momentarily took their eyes off the ball handler who is now making the pass inside to the roller.

[Klomp]

About 3 shots per game currently being taken by Taj Gibson need to be re-distributed to Karl Towns.

Another way you could look at that.....Gibson, Dieng and Bjelica are getting 18, compared to the 16 you had them getting.