All Things Luka Doncic

[burek3]

A very meh game from him. Frustrated to the max.

[J_T]

It's funny that he had an off night by his standard and still finished with top performance rating. He drew 8 fouls after all, not bad for the most anti-non-athletic player in the league.

Did he win MVP for this week?

I should've been clearer - he had best performance rating among all players in this game only. He will not be anywhere close to this week's MVP, no player really had an amazing night.

[burek3]

1/6 for (european) three is yeah thanks, but no thanks for today's NBA standards....

[J_T]

Variance is pretty extreme when you take 6 shots and expected single shot % is below 50%.

[SportsGuy8]

Yeah, the fewer shots someone takes, the more variance comes into play. I always find it funny and ridiculous how everyone keeps saying a player is inconsistent when that player is a shooter taking single digit shots per game ... Of course variance is going to play a huge role in that case.

And then when that same player's role greatly increases over the years, starting to get a lot more shots, everyone starts saying how that player has gotten much more consistent.

[burek3]

It's just somewhat worrying that he constantly puts himself into these positions for low % shots. OK, you take 1, 2... maybe even 3 per game if the situation really demands it.

This iso dance-dance-revolution fad when 8-10s is left on shot clock of his isn't really flattering. But sure, if he is making these shots, it's magic. If not, it leaves an aftertaste

[Bob8]

Not the best game but he still looked much better than Rodriguez and Nando and it seems that Real doesn’t miss a bit last years Mvp, what’s alone for sure impressive. He suddenly draws a lot of fouls, 14 in 2 games. I’m sure that in 80+ games we will see even much worse performance by him, that’s normal.

Real will have to sign new C. I believe season for Kuzmic is over. Randolph should be back in 1 month.

[Bob8]

Porzingis talking about Doncic.

http://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/536342/porzingis-doncic-should-be-no-1-pick/

[SportsGuy8]

It's just somewhat worrying that he constantly puts himself into these positions for low % shots. OK, you take 1, 2... maybe even 3 per game if the situation really demands it.

This iso dance-dance-revolution fad when 8-10s is left on shot clock of his isn't really flattering. But sure, if he is making these shots, it's magic. If not, it leaves an aftertaste

Those are a problem, yes. There's a time and place for such shots and it's only in the last couple seconds of the possession. Otherwise it's simply a losing play, he's not Curry.

[UcanUwill]

Kurbanov, underrated player. Super strong, great size, can play D.

[XTraderXL]

Of course he will have a bad game here and there. CSKA is the main favorite for EL title this year and the winner was not in question at any point of the game.

I wonder what Real will do now that Randolph is out for a few weeks and Kuzmic is lost for the season. My guess is Luka will have to contribute even more on the offensive end and Real will have to sign a new C. Real could be in trouble if they dont find another big soon.

[The Master]

I didn't read this whole thread, so sorry if I'm repeating statements made there before.

It's undeniable Doncic will be top6 pick next year - but my biggest concern about Luka is his shooting.

Just look at the numbers - at the Eurobasket he shoot on 31%3pt (but 6.7 3pt/game so big volume), last season it was 35% (5.2 3pt per 36), right now he started this season with 9/28 from downtown. He still was efficient, but this is european basketball - here Sergio Rodriguez is per36 20ppg scorer, and he was backup poing guard during most of his last season in NBA playing behind TJ McConnell. Milos Teodosic was >60%ts shooter in Europe and with Clippers he's below 50%ts scorer in preseason and after first game with Lakers.

Yes, Doncic is ofc better prospect than both of these guys, and has plenty of time to develop his shot fully but being ~33% 3point shooter in Europe will translate to being ~29% 3 point shooter in NBA at the beginnig of his career. And that doesn't sound good when you talk about potentially elite guard whom you want to select with top3 pick whose scoring depends on shooting.

In Europe ~half of his shots are 3s so how it will look like in NBA where he will play as SG, won't have advantage of height like in Europe, and his first step will be even bigger issue? He will shoot even more from a long distance and that means he won't be a very good scorer unless he develops his 3pt shooting to ~40% territory.

Let me be clear:
1) he's only 18/19 so he has a lot of time to develop his shot because his technique is above average
2) he's still very good prospect because of his size and ballhandling

But what I want to say that he shouldn't be considered as a first pick if he shoots this season on ~33% - because considering he's very average at his best at the defense, he has to be very good scorer to be comparable prospect to Poter, Ayton or Bagley.

For me his shooting is that big concern because this is his third season in Madrid, an second as regular player - he's very mature as a prospect but still his shooting is not as good as it should be to select him at the top.

[UcanUwill]

I didn't read this whole thread, so sorry if I'm repeating statements made there before.

It's undeniable Doncic will be top6 pick next year - but my biggest concern about Luka is his shooting.

Just look at the numbers - at the Eurobasket he shoot on 31%3pt (but 6.7 3pt/game so big volume), last season it was 35% (5.2 3pt per 36), right now he started this season with 9/28 from downtown. He still was efficient, but this is european basketball - here Sergio Rodriguez is per36 20ppg scorer, and he was backup poing guard during most of his last season in NBA playing behind TJ McConnell. Milos Teodosic was >60%ts shooter in Europe and with Clippers he's below 50%ts scorer in preseason and after first game with Lakers.

Yes, Doncic is ofc better prospect than both of these guys, and has plenty of time to develop his shot fully but being ~33% 3point shooter in Europe will translate to being ~29% 3 point shooter in NBA at the beginnig of his career. And that doesn't sound good when you talk about potentially elite guard whom you want to select with top3 pick whose scoring depends on shooting.

In Europe ~half of his shots are 3s so how it will look like in NBA where he will play as SG, won't have advantage of height like in Europe, and his first step will be even bigger issue? He will shoot even more from a long distance and that means he won't be a very good scorer unless he develops his 3pt shooting to ~40% territory.

Let me be clear:
1) he's only 18/19 so he has a lot of time to develop his shot because his technique is above average
2) he's still very good prospect because of his size and ballhandling

But what I want to say that he shouldn't be considered as a first pick if he shoots this season on ~33% - because considering he's very average at his best at the defense, he has to be very good scorer to be comparable prospect to Poter, Ayton or Bagley.

For me his shooting is that big concern because this is his third season in Madrid, an second as regular player - he's very mature as a prospect but still his shooting is not as good as it should be to select him at the top.

I think he is better shooter, than his raw percentages make it out to look. A lot of his 3 pointers are contested NBA range step backs, when open he is money. Shooting is something that players develop over time, very rarely you would see a young player who mastered long range shooting already. Doncic is way ahead of the curve I would say, and you can see clear improvements when you look back at him back in 2015. I personally believe he will develop into elite shooter, I have no worries about his shot at all.

[XTraderXL]

Yeah, he takes a bunch of full court shots at the end of quarters as well. Those shots bring down his shooting % a lot. You have guys who dont attemt those shots to keep their % high, Doncic takes every single one.

Overall, he will need to tone it down with the dribble dance on the perimeter, it is already becoming too predictable. He has shown he can penetrate consistently and can be very effective when he makes the right decisions. The problem is he only started penetrating regularly this season so he still has to learn. With that said at least he has shown willingness to penetrate which will be a huge plus for him. The mid range shot is not falling at a high % yet, but thats the easiest shot when you put enough time and practice into it. I think he will end up shooting that mid range pull-up at 75-80% clip in a few years. I believe the mid range jumper and step back 3s will become his scoring bread and butter in set offense in the future.

[The Master]

I think he is better shooter, than his raw percentages make it out to look. A lot of his 3 pointers are contested NBA range step backs, when open he is money. Shooting is something that players develop over time, very rarely you would see a young player who mastered long range shooting already. Doncic is way ahead of the curve I would say, and you can see clear improvements when you look back at him back in 2015. I personally believe he will develop into elite shooter, I have no worries about his shot at all.

Yes, but these step backs and shots of the dribble are based on a fact he's ballhandler and playmaker - and on a fact that his first step and attacking the rim is his biggest weakness. That won't change in NBA, it's easy to suggest that it would be even more troublesome for him against bigger, better defensive players.

And as I wrote above - I'm not saying he won't develop his shot, but taking into account that we should consider him as top5 prospect, and first of all - as an NBA elite prospect, we should look on a things how they look like right now:

- his position in NBA will be SG because I don't see him defending point guards at all
- he will be a very good playmaker
- he won't have these much smaller opponents defending him especially as a shooting guard, and many of his points right now are based on exploiting matchups against much smaller opponents
- his issues with first step and attacking the rim will be even bigger and he will shoot even more from long distance

That's why shooting is for him that important - 45-50% of his shots are 3s right now, and in NBA these proportions would be comparable or even higher. And he's shooting in 30-35 percentage terrritory last two seasons in Europe - with different 3pt line, with much worse, smaller defenders. That's why I don't see him matching Ayton or Porter or Bagley as a prospect - he's still great talent with his combination of ballhandling, size and playmaking, but not as good as these guys may be.

This may be premature opinion because he has just started the season and it's October - but what I want to say is that he need to shoot better from 3 to be considered as truely elite. He would be in conversation for top3 pick if he shoots all season on ~40% in Europe. Because right now when I think about Doncic as a rookie in NBA, I see poor defender (hard to think otherwise), very good playmaker and very average scorer. More "top5 pick" than "elite pick". But if he starts to shoot better, than of course I will change my mind, it's quite simple.

And about game with CSKA, I wouldn't be too harsh - he had off night with his shooting, and he still ended with 14 pts on 55%ts in 26 minutes, in fact that was quite impressive.

[BoardCrusher]

I think he is better shooter, than his raw percentages make it out to look. A lot of his 3 pointers are contested NBA range step backs, when open he is money. Shooting is something that players develop over time, very rarely you would see a young player who mastered long range shooting already. Doncic is way ahead of the curve I would say, and you can see clear improvements when you look back at him back in 2015. I personally believe he will develop into elite shooter, I have no worries about his shot at all.

Yes, but these step backs and shots of the dribble are based on a fact he's ballhandler and playmaker - and on a fact that his first step and attacking the rim is his biggest weakness. That won't change in NBA, it's easy to suggest that it would be even more troublesome for him against bigger, better defensive players.

And as I wrote above - I'm not saying he won't develop his shot, but taking into account that we should consider him as top5 prospect, and first of all - as an NBA elite prospect, we should look on a things how they look like right now:

- his position in NBA will be SG because I don't see him defending point guards at all
- he will be a very good playmaker
- he won't have these much smaller opponents defending him especially as a shooting guard, and many of his points right now are based on exploiting matchups against much smaller opponents
- his issues with first step and attacking the rim will be even bigger and he will shoot even more from long distance

That's why shooting is for him that important - 45-50% of his shots are 3s right now, and in NBA these proportions would be comparable or even higher. And he's shooting in 30-35 percentage terrritory last two seasons in Europe - with different 3pt line, with much worse, smaller defenders. That's why I don't see him matching Ayton or Porter or Bagley as a prospect - he's still great talent with his combination of ballhandling, size and playmaking, but not as good as these guys may be.

This may be premature opinion because he has just started the season and it's October - but what I want to say is that he need to shoot better from 3 to be considered as truely elite. He would be in conversation for top3 pick if he shoots all season on ~40% in Europe. Because right now when I think about Doncic as a rookie in NBA, I see poor defender (hard to think otherwise), very good playmaker and very average scorer. More "top5 pick" than "elite pick". But if he starts to shoot better, than of course I will change my mind, it's quite simple.

And about game with CSKA, I wouldn't be too harsh - he had off night with his shooting, and he still ended with 14 pts on 55%ts in 26 minutes, in fact that was quite impressive.

Im not sure how many games of Doncic have you seen last year, but I would asume not too many, cause if you did you would know he takes a lot of unnecessary half court shots at end of quarters almost EVERY game. I have pointed this out in this thread atleast 2 times.
If im not mistaken he made about 240 3pt attempts last year, lets be conservative and assume that out of 80 games he attempted a half court shot 50 times.
Do your calculations with these numbers and see if he is still a very average scorer.

[The Master]

First of all, I found your post as quite impertinent, secondly - I enjoy verifying nonempirical arguments.

So I decided to check shooting charts from Euroleague games from last season. And they show that Doncic had ONE half court shot, 3 or 4 threes from very long range at the end of quarters, and some threes from normal distance at the end of quarters. And of course some long range threes beating the clock during quarters like every guard does.

I was quite suspicious, so I checked shooting chart and boxscore stats, and numer of 3s made by Doncic were the same. So on 103 3s made last whole season in Europe, there were only few made in circumstancess you wrote. I don't know if european stats are more ''conservative'' in calculating these "half court shots" or what (but these shooting charts show some half court shots) but it seems they didn't affect Doncic efficiency in a way you want to, and there's no evidence to your claim because that would mean in Spain on 123 made threes, 40% of them would be half court shots

So next time when you will make argument like this, maybe firstly you'll check what are you talking about?

[UcanUwill]

Personally, I am far more worried about Lonzo Ball's or Dzanan Musa's ability to shoot at NBA level. I think Doncic will be a very good shooter, I have no worries there. I am far more worried about his ability to blow past his man.

[BoardCrusher]

First of all, I found your post as quite impertinent, secondly - I enjoy verifying nonempirical arguments.

So I decided to check shooting charts from Euroleague games from last season. And they show that Doncic had ONE half court shot, 3 or 4 threes from very long range at the end of quarters, and some threes from normal distance at the end of quarters. And of course some long range threes beating the clock during quarters like every guard does.

I was quite suspicious, so I checked shooting chart and boxscore stats, and numer of 3s made by Doncic were the same. So on 103 3s made last whole season in Europe, there were only few made in circumstancess you wrote. I don't know if european stats are more ''conservative'' in calculating these "half court shots" or what (but these shooting charts show some half court shots) but it seems they didn't affect Doncic efficiency in a way you want to, and there's no evidence to your claim because that would mean in Spain on 123 made threes, 40% of them would be half court shots

So next time when you will make argument like this, maybe firstly you'll check what are you talking about?

He may not have attempted many in euroleague, but anyone watching ACb games will confirm he takes many halfcourt shots there, you can believe what you want, I know what I see and I watched almost every single game of real last season.

[Rn5ho]

Does it even matter what happened last season? What matters is how he's playing now.