The Bucks player personnel issues under LED

[paulpressey25]

Understand the frustration with Kidd. Just wondering if we can also discuss the player personnel moves the team has made since LED took over.

Let me know if I'm missing some moves or people disagree with the categories these are in. If people want to better understand why the team sucks the minute Giannis leaves the court, the answer seems to be here.

The Bad Moves
Passed on Lakers pick or Isaiah Thomas or Dragic and took MCW/Plumlee/Ennis in Brandon Knight trade.
Monroe 3/$51 - Bad signing
Henson 4/$44 - Bad signing
Plumlee 4/$52- Bad signing, Hawes amnesty impacts roster moves today due to luxury tax
Delly 4/$38 - Bad signing.
Telly 3/$30 - Bad signing.
Vaughn - wasted first rounder
1st Round pick dealt to Raptors for Greivis, 20th overall in 2017 draft used to draft OG
2nd Round pick dealt to Raptors for Greivis used to draft Norman Powell
2nd Round pick sold to Warriors, used on Patrick McCaw
Use of 2014 second round picks on Johnny O'Bryant and Damien Inglis
Release/trades of ZaZa, Ersan and Dudley in July of 2015 for little or no compensation

Positive moves
Traded Delfino's contract for Dudley and Clippers first rounder
Drafted Brogdon in round two 2016
Trading Brandon Knight versus signing him to extension
Traded MCW for Snell
Signed Middleton to market deal in 2015
Signed Jerryd Bayless to 2/$6 deal

Jury is still out moves
Drafting Jabari at #2 over Embiid at #3 (I don't fault them for this at all, but may not pan out)
Drafting Thon at #10 over Sabonis or other players
Signing Snell to a 4/$44 extension
Drafting of DJ Wilson with 2017 first rounder (At moment he looks bad compared to others picked afterwards)
Drafting of Sterling Brown with 2017 second round pick

[tydett]

I think you're being charitable on the "Jury is still out" moves.

Thon looks like a train wreck and his age complications slot it into the bad move category ("But that one play where he guarded Kyle Lowry!").

Wilson looks even worse, and didn't even look like he belonged on the court against G-Leaguers. Bad move as a result of the bungled FO transition (that private workout for Kidd and Ron **** Thorn).

Jabari is a bad move. He's a great kid and showed a lot of potential, but he hasn't played enough to work on realizing that potential, and now it's looking like the team is going to have to shell out a near-max contract for a broken body. Again, not like there was another realistic choice, since that was viewed as a 3-man draft, but it's still a bad move nonetheless.

Snell is a bad move. He doesn't move the needle on his own. Theoretically he's a good complimentary piece for Giannis, but for a team that is cap-strapped, signing a nothing player for 10% of the cap is a bad move, especially for 4 years.

I would also add signing Giannis to a 4 year contract instead of a 5 year contract is an incredibly terrible move that will cost the Bucks come his free agency.

Just about every move that has happened aside from drafting Giannis has been a huge train wreck, and also typified our previous GM - shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. Giannis realizing his mammoth potential has also put the team in a terrible spot - he's way too good for the team to get into a position to grab a second banana via the draft, and his contract, in addition to the other contracts our team has handed out, makes it so that acquiring that second star via trade or free agency will be incredibly difficult. It's sad because we as fans finally get a generational player after about 40 years, but we'll have to watch him in the peak of his career in a glamour market for a team that doesn't **** everything up.

[sidney lanier]

I don't have any major issues with this regime's player moves. It's facile to analyze moves in this way:

Most acquisitions bad (because most NBA players bad)

Most outbound moves good (see reason above)

Bargain-basement acquisitions OK (again, see reason above)

Draft choices iffy, because they eventually become regular NBA players, who are bad

Paul, I agree with the underlying theme of your post. Most NBA players ARE bad. Think of the NBA as a subdivision filled with tract homes, all of which suffer from shoddy construction and leaky roofs. If I'm your neighbor, you're not getting any sympathy from me if you complain that your roof leaks, because mine does, too. It's a given.

All NBA teams make what can be construed in isolation to be bad personnel moves because the personnel pool is filled with practically nothing but bad players. To indict one set of owners or one GM for swimming in that pool is parochial and misguided.

[Jimmmycrackcorn]

the player personnel moves pale in comparison to the embarrassing way they handled the hiring of Jason Kidd, and the search for a new GM.

it's pretty obvious these guys are just jock sniffers, and have no idea what the first thing about running a basketball operation (not that they should).

the guy they hand picked to coach this franchise has control over player personnel issues...and until they put an established basketball person in charge, there is going to be no change.

[Ron Swanson]

Even if you have a GM making good moves in a vacuum, the overall direction, composition, and identity of your team comes from the coaching staff and the philosophy they implement. You could give Kidd and the staff the Houston roster right this second and they'd find a way to underwhelm and get bounced in a 1st round playoff series. We have our Mark Jackson....

[Jimmmycrackcorn]

Even if you have a GM making good moves in a vacuum, the overall direction, composition, and identity of your team comes from the coaching staff and the philosophy they implement. You could give Kidd and the staff the Houston roster right this second and they'd find a way to underwhelm and get bounced in a 1st round playoff series. We have our Mark Jackson....

.....and it's time to move on

[LUKE23]

FA signings: Delly, Telly, Henson, Snell
Last three 1st rounders: Maker, Vaughn, Wilson

That's half our roster. Tell me how much production we are getting from those guys.

Giannis, Middleton, Parker, Brogdon, Monroe. Theoretically, you should be able to create a pretty solid offense with that five. The issue is how badly we've wasted the surrounding roster spots, both with blown picks and lighting money on fire. And only one of those mistakes (Telly) is gone by the end of next season.

[machu46]

Are we considering these moves in retrospect or saying that signing ______ was bad even at the time?

I also think a lot of the moves were fine individually, but in conjunction with the other moves that were made, were bad.

[LUKE23]

Also, even with Middleton on a very friendly deal, and Parker on his rookie contract:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/

6th in payroll. Telly, Delly, Snell, Henson type deals add up.

[gbpakman]

Are we considering these moves in retrospect or saying that signing ______ was bad even at the time?

I also think a lot of the moves were fine individually, but in conjunction with the other moves that were made, were bad.

Good point. Monroe signing was amazing and exciting at the time. Many of us thought it was the best FA signing in Bucks history (not that that says much)

Monroe hasn't lived up to expectations, but he is no Simmons/Gadzuric

[LUKE23]

Monroe contract was fine regardless. Had a PO, wasn't long, talented player. He was meh year 1, valuable as hell last year, this year started off injured. It's the long contracts to easily replaceable players that is a much bigger issue. That, and not being able to produce legit rotation players in the first round since Parker (jury may still be out on Thon, but he's looked awful this year and is obviously 23/24).

[Zeezprah]

Even if you have a GM making good moves in a vacuum, the overall direction, composition, and identity of your team comes from the coaching staff and the philosophy they implement. You could give Kidd and the staff the Houston roster right this second and they'd find a way to underwhelm and get bounced in a 1st round playoff series. We have our Mark Jackson....

Agreed. And I don’t think our situation is as dire as people think either. A couple contract dumps and we’re in solid financial shape as soon as next year. If Snell keeps this play up you could get an asset for him. Not sure why everyone keeps dogging on that contract, even if he’s not right for us at the moment, someone will want him.

And obviously the biggest elephant in the room is get a better coaching staff. Our offense consistently looks horrendous in the half court. I’m convinced this roster as-is could win 50 games with a coaching change and someone like a Kyle o’quinn instead of henson.

So no, not happy with the current situation at all, but this really isn’t that bad if we could just finally get rid of kidd and have Horst make some moves

[LUKE23]

I don't see which contracts you're "dumping". Of the four contracts we'd be looking to move, we are either taking back equal length or giving assets to cut off a year.

[Ron Swanson]

I mean, we still have a **** ton of time to figure this thing out. You have a 22-year old superstar locked up for the long term and you definitely have some intriguing young pieces/assets. The cupboard is far from bare even outside of Giannis. But this is why you need to get creative, value young players/prospects (questionable with Kidd/LED), and not consider guys like Khris Middleton borderline "untouchable".

[Treebeard]

I'll make a counterpoint to Sydney's comment that "most NBA players are bad". I'm assuming he was using hyperbole to prove a point - though I'm honestly not quite sure what his point was...

I think we are all jaded as to how good the vast majority of the NBA players are. The 500+ players that make NBA rosters for part of a season are at the pinnacle of hundreds of thousands (millions?) of world-wide basketball players. The problem is that after the topmost tier (10-50) that are transcendent - for a time - the next tier drops off to merely superb; and so on.

The Bucks Front Office needs to be transcendent as well to get past this "above average" status. Of course, one possibility is that LED are quietly content to follow the Kohl model, in spite of their public statements otherwise. Talk is cheap..... They may view this as a few years investment to cash in on a windfall sale as the larger game grows.

The Bucks scouting system struck gold with Giannis and they have not done very well backfilling around him. No argument on the points PP raised. The one thing with the Parker pick: It was the logical pick under the conditions. Most folks recognized his superior offensive ability AND his defensive weakness before draft night. So, (discounting his injuries) how have the Bucks managed the roster and the game plan to support his skills and mitigate his weaknesses - He was a #2 pick after all? Player acquisitions and game schemes seem to work at cross purposes - bringing in a steady mis-match of skill sets and a very inconsistent use of players strengths in general

[machu46]

Understand the frustration with Kidd. Just wondering if we can also discuss the player personnel moves the team has made since LED took over.

Let me know if I'm missing some moves or people disagree with the categories these are in. If people want to better understand why the team sucks the minute Giannis leaves the court, the answer seems to be here.

The Bad Moves
Passed on Lakers pick or Isaiah Thomas or Dragic and took MCW/Plumlee/Ennis in Brandon Knight trade.
Monroe 3/$51 - Bad signing
Henson 4/$44 - Bad signing
Plumlee 4/$52- Bad signing, Hawes amnesty impacts roster moves today due to luxury tax
Delly 4/$38 - Bad signing.
Telly 3/$30 - Bad signing.
Vaughn - wasted first rounder
1st Round pick dealt to Raptors for Greivis, 20th overall in 2017 draft used to draft OG
2nd Round pick dealt to Raptors for Greivis used to draft Norman Powell
2nd Round pick sold to Warriors, used on Patrick McCaw
Use of 2014 second round picks on Johnny O'Bryant and Damien Inglis
Release/trades of ZaZa, Ersan and Dudley in July of 2015 for little or no compensation

Positive moves
Traded Delfino's contract for Dudley and Clippers first rounder
Drafted Brogdon in round two 2016
Trading Brandon Knight versus signing him to extension
Traded MCW for Snell
Signed Middleton to market deal in 2015
Signed Jerryd Bayless to 2/$6 deal

Jury is still out moves
Drafting Jabari at #2 over Embiid at #3 (I don't fault them for this at all, but may not pan out)
Drafting Thon at #10 over Sabonis or other players
Signing Snell to a 4/$44 extension
Drafting of DJ Wilson with 2017 first rounder (At moment he looks bad compared to others picked afterwards)
Drafting of Sterling Brown with 2017 second round pick

Just my opinion, but focusing on what you categorized as bad:

Indefensibly bad even at the time:
Plumlee 4/$52
Rashad Vaughn - Just seemed like a **** prospect to me. I get taking a chance on a young guy, but he didn't really do anything at a high level even in college.
Greivis Vasquez trade
Selling 2nd round picks
**The fact that we gave fat contracts to 3 or 4 centers with no hope of giving all of them playing time
**Just signing too many role players to contracts. For example, if we only had like 3 role players signed to post-rookie contracts, I think we could easily stomach 1 of Monroe/Henson, Telly, and Snell. But add in all the other guys we had signed at the same time and it's just bad roster management.

Bad, but kinda understandable at the time:
Zaza/Ersan/Dudley moves - If I remember right, Ersan and Dudley wanted to leave. Zaza was replaced by Monroe if I recall correctly
John Henson 4/$44 - Seemed like he had a chance to become a really good defensive center, and had we made him the only relatively highly paid center, it wouldn't have been bad.
Passed on Lakers pick or Isaiah Thomas or Dragic and took MCW/Plumlee/Ennis in Brandon Knight trade - At the time, I believe some people (probably not majority though) thought the Lakers would land a big free agent and the pick wouldn't end up being worth a ton; we needed a starting PG and MCW was a raw prospect with some good physical tools who had been surprisingly decent early on.
Dellavadova 4/$38 - Seemed like people thought he could be a solid backup PG/possibly start with Giannis as the playmaker, but obviously he's been worse than expected. Still questionable even at the time though.

Decent at the time, but bad in retrospect:
Teletovic 3/$30 - We desperately needed shooting and he was coming off a year in which he was viewed as a serious difference maker. This signing received pretty universal praise from a lot of the kinda highly-regarded media guys.

Decent:
Monroe 3/$51 - I still have no problem with that signing. He's been a good player for us and signing him was a huge deal at the time.

[humanrefutation]

I mean, we still have a **** ton of time to figure this thing out. You have a 22-year old superstar locked up for the long term and you definitely have some intriguing young pieces/assets. The cupboard is far from bare even outside of Giannis. But this is why you need to get creative, value young players/prospects (questionable with Kidd/LED), and not consider guys like Khris Middleton borderline "untouchable".

The long term isn't very long anymore. Giannis might be 22, but after this year, he'll only have three years left on his deal. The Bucks will have a decent idea of whether he's going to re-sign going into his last year, which means you have two years to convince him that the team and organization around him is good enough to justify him signing an extension here.

I'm not saying to go all-in right now, but we can't keep **** moves up. Next thing you'll know, it'll be 2020 and Giannis will be talking about "exploring his options" in free agency.

[paulpressey25]

All NBA teams make what can be construed in isolation to be bad personnel moves because the personnel pool is filled with practically nothing but bad players. To indict one set of owners or one GM for swimming in that pool is parochial and misguided.

Sid--Don't have time to do it today, but compare the moves made by the Bucks compared to teams like the Blazers, Celtics, Rockets, OKC.

Not expecting the Bucks to hit on all those bad moves noted above. But what if you took just 2 or 3 of the many misses and put them in the "win" column? That's the difference between a good organization and a derp one.

[Rockmaninoff]

My understanding is that they retained Rod Thorn and promoted Alex Lasry to solve these issues.

[sidney lanier]

I'll make a counterpoint to Sydney's comment that "most NBA players are bad". I'm assuming he was using hyperbole to prove a point - though I'm honestly not quite sure what his point was...

I think we are all jaded as to how good the vast majority of the NBA players are. The 500+ players that make NBA rosters for part of a season are at the pinnacle of hundreds of thousands (millions?) of world-wide basketball players. The problem is that after the topmost tier (10-50) that are transcendent - for a time - the next tier drops off to merely superb; and so on.

I was being a little hyperbolic, true. Players like Delly and Telly and Snelly are all highly skilled, and NBA players generally are, I agree, the cream of the crop. But when we criticize personnel moves in the way pp did there is an unstated comparison to the very best in the world. Delly is good, but he's not Steve Nash, so acquiring him was a bad transaction at a premium price. Telly is good, but he's not Kyle Korver, so we're overpaying him. Snell is good, but he's not shooting 50% from three, so he's a disappointment.

My underlying point, and I expressed it poorly, is that we fail to make the Bayesian assessment of these moves. (OK, now I'm expressing it even more opaquely.) By that I mean we look only at the heads side of the coin, as though the tails side did not exist. Assessments of player personnel moves that start with the wrong initial beliefs -- in this case, that all journeymen perform to career norms in all settings -- are certain to disappoint because the conditional probabilities that inhere to Bayesian thinking are ignored. We think only about the rosiest outcomes without any sort of reasonable probabilistic assessment of outcomes, then criticize and complain because our expectations are unmet.

The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, GMs, or front offices, but in ourselves.