Fultz vs. Tatum: What do you think now?

[Shamrock]

Tatum is disproving a lot of my (and i'm sure others) concerns about his game. He was labeled as a ISO scorer who kills ball movement and lacks the athleticism needed to thrive in today's NBA. Both have been proven false and I think his passing and ball handling have looked surprisingly polished. I really think there's no chance Fultz becomes a better player than Tatum. Especially when considering the fact that PG's are the most bountiful position in the NBA.

I think Ainge sat down with Fultz and realized how big of an airhead he is and took the high character hard working guy in Tatum.

[ConstableGeneva]

List of teenagers who averaged 14+ ppg, 6+ rpg, and 60+ TS% in their rookie season -- hasn't been done.

Very early, but Jayson Tatum (14.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 64.4 TS%) is on pace to be the first. With his role, playing time, and the system Celtics run, it's not inconceivable that he could maintain those numbers, even raise his averages.

You think his .529 3PT% is sustainable while having a .333 3PAr? Although he's getting assisted for > 93% of his attempts, that seems really unlikely.

Take down the 3PT% to 40% and you still end up with 59% TS%. Still plenty efficient for a 19-yo rookie. His 3-pt rate sounds about right the way team shares the ball. He's been money on catch-and-shoot. I think his finishing around the rim can also improve once he learns to cut more and make quicker decisions on closeouts.

[GreenBloodedC]

This, again might go down as one of Ainge's most brilliant moves.

[Kolkmania]

List of teenagers who averaged 14+ ppg, 6+ rpg, and 60+ TS% in their rookie season -- hasn't been done.

Very early, but Jayson Tatum (14.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 64.4 TS%) is on pace to be the first. With his role, playing time, and the system Celtics run, it's not inconceivable that he could maintain those numbers, even raise his averages.

You think his .529 3PT% is sustainable while having a .333 3PAr? Although he's getting assisted for > 93% of his attempts, that seems really unlikely.

Take down the 3PT% to 40% and you still end up with 59% TS%. Still plenty efficient for a 19-yo rookie. His 3-pt rate sounds about right the way team shares the ball. He's been money on catch-and-shoot. I think his finishing around the rim can also improve once he learns to cut more and make quicker decisions on closeouts.

Ending the season shooting 40% from three would be an incredible achievement. I also don't doubt he'll have an efficient season, but if he wants to increase or maintain his points per 36 minutes then he'll have to create more shots by himself. Since basically all his points are from catch-and-shoot threes, attacking closeouts or in transition. The real question with Tatum is if he's capable doing that efficiently, but that's something that can take years, kid is still 19 years old.

Tatum is disproving a lot of my (and i'm sure others) concerns about his game. He was labeled as a ISO scorer who kills ball movement and lacks the athleticism needed to thrive in today's NBA. Both have been proven false and I think his passing and ball handling have looked surprisingly polished. I really think there's no chance Fultz becomes a better player than Tatum. Especially when considering the fact that PG's are the most bountiful position in the NBA.

I think Ainge sat down with Fultz and realized how big of an airhead he is and took the high character hard working guy in Tatum.

With all due respect, but the narrative of Tatum being a chucker with tunnel vision and a big negative on the defensive end was always false. I've discussed with Duke4Life at the draft boards back in December/January extensively how incredible lazy the narrative of Tatum was, he showed decent vision out of some pick and roll plays, provided weakside protection and showed potential switching onto smaller guards. Defensively he's even exceeded my expectations, blocking Schroder last night wasn't something I expected this early for example.

The biggest gripes on Tatum were his explosion off one foot, he really had troubles finishing around legit NBA guys, and the ability to beat decent wing defenders off the dribble. These are the crucial parts for Tatum to develop if he wants to become a legit primary option on the offensive end.

[jmr07019]

The criticisms about Tatum's 3 point shooting were fair pre draft but he is quickly erasing those fears. Dude is an excellent shooter.

[ConstableGeneva]

This seemed effortless...

Watch on YouTube

[Kolkmania]

This seemed effortless...

Watch on YouTube

Really like how Aron Baynes is used in Gortat-esque way (0:12) of blocking the rim protector, ensuring an open driving lane. He does that a lot, things like this are invaluable and often overlooked.

[VeryMuchWoke]

I agree with every part you said, except the bolded above and that's why I responded. If Tatum tore his ACL after Rozier's reckless alley-oop he wouldn't have excelled. However, that doesn't do anything to the order Ainge ranked those prospects in May(!), same for Fultz struggling due to suddenly being unable to shoot.

Of course Ainge didn't incorporate the future into his pre-draft assessments, but if you believe in his drafting ability at all then his pre draft assessments are positively correlated with future performance. Thus the relative performance of Tatum vs Fultz would increase the probability that Ainge did in fact have Tatum ahead of Fultz on his board. Now, if one is a Philly homer (not you) and thinks Ainge has no clue when it comes to the draft then you'd put that correlation as very low and wouldn't incorporate this new information into your guesses about his draft board.

Fair enough, I disagree with the possitive correlation between pre-draft assessments and future performances. Too many factors and context to say that it's more likely that Ainge had Tatum at 1 because Tatum had the best first month in the NBA out of his rookie class.

For the record, I didn't say Ainge had Tatum way lower, just that I'm skeptical he had him #1 and the above reasoning to think so is just plain wrong to me.

Saying there is no positive correlation between Ainge's pre-draft assessments and player performance is equivalent to saying Ainge's drafting is no better than drawing a name out of a hat. In an earlier post you said that Ainge was slightly above average at drafting. These two things are incompatible.

[hickfromfrenchlick]

List of teenagers who averaged 14+ ppg, 6+ rpg, and 60+ TS% in their rookie season -- hasn't been done.

Very early, but Jayson Tatum (14.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 64.4 TS%) is on pace to be the first. With his role, playing time, and the system Celtics run, it's not inconceivable that he could maintain those numbers, even raise his averages.

I think the TS% is unsustainable but even if (when) it dips, he'll still be a good player deserving of PT. So I wouldn't be surprised if he's averaging 15-16 ppg and 7+ rpg. I also wouldn't be surprised if he hits a wall and the numbers all go down. Either way, nobody plays like in his first 11 games if he's not going to be awesome. They're not empty numbers; he looks good.

[hickfromfrenchlick]

Oh he could have Tatum rated as the 1st in last draft, but the trade made sense even if he was 3rd or 4th on his board. It's not Tatum for Fultz, it's Fultz for a player which fit better from position standpoint, PLUS another likely top 5 pick. Him flying to the west coast desperately trying to get a meeting with Josh Jackson is a sign that it wasn't a clear-cut choice.

That's a strawman. Who said "clear cut choice"? I believe Ainge said he thought a lot of the top players had similar potential. Ainge could've had Tatum #1 on his board but wanted to do his due diligence and check out Jackson before finalizing his board. "Desperately" is your adverb and your characterization, which is based solely on the fact that Jackson skipped out on the meeting.

[BfB]

I think that 2nd unit still needs one more scorer though. I definitely think it should become Tatum's unit, I just think you guys need to bring in another scorer for that unit. Rozier/Smart/Semi/Tatum/Theis is really lacking scoring punch. Morris is going to help a lot with that unit. But I think if you guys can get a scorer with that exception, then that bench can really be an offensive force.

Ainge did say they prefer another playmaker for the DPE instead of a big. Not too many options in the FA/trade market. Barton? Bellinelli? J.Crawford? Those guys can easily shoot you out of games as in them esp if they're defensive liabilities. But I agree, Semi and Theis aren't going to cut it most nights.

They can definitely shoot you out but they can also get a lot hotter than anyone else you guys have on the bench. I would feel more comfortable one of those guys putting up a ton of shots off the bench every night than Smart. Dont get me wrong I really like Smart but this high volume scoring thing isnt his game, it worked out today but I dont think you can count on that happening too often. I think Smart's perfect role is a Winslow type role he has for Miami. Solid distributor who is an opportunistic scorer and hard nose in all the other aspects of the game. I think one of those microwave scorers would be great, or if Ainge was just doing GM talk and you guys get a big. I think Morris can replace Semi and a big Len/Okafor can replace Theis. Semi and Theis are good players just dont think theyre ready for heavy solid rotation minutes every game yet.

Semi Ojeleye is 100% ready for rotation minutes


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[BfB]

You do know the Nets are the 7th seed in the east right? So, the 16th pick this year is more valuable than any pick in 2017?....... I mean, I have no words.

I know that, and I also know it's a long season an their starting lineup is:

Deangelo Russel
Levert
Demare Carrol
RHJ
Mozgov

That will contend for the least talented starting lineup the NBA has seen in years. Not a single player is even close to all-star level. Let's wait and see how they do this year.

Who knows...Nets fans treat LeVert as Michael Jordan so maybe they know something we don’t??!!! Lol

Russell's putting up 21/7 shooting 51% from the field


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[hickfromfrenchlick]

I know that, and I also know it's a long season an their starting lineup is:

Deangelo Russel
Levert
Demare Carrol
RHJ
Mozgov

That will contend for the least talented starting lineup the NBA has seen in years. Not a single player is even close to all-star level. Let's wait and see how they do this year.

Who knows...Nets fans treat LeVert as Michael Jordan so maybe they know something we don’t??!!! Lol

Russell's putting up 21/7 shooting 51% from the field


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Russell has a 5.6/3.9 A/TO ratio and he's shooting 46% overall and 28% from 3. His TS% and PER aren't bad but he's a volume scorer on a team that needs one.

He's on my dynasty fantasy team, as are RHJ and Carroll. Believe it or not, we're in first place. (The rest of my guys are pretty darn good: KAT, Jokic, Simmons, Nurkic, Dray, Myles Turner.)

[celticfan42487]

Who knows...Nets fans treat LeVert as Michael Jordan so maybe they know something we don’t??!!! Lol

Russell's putting up 21/7 shooting 51% from the field


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Russell has a 5.6/3.9 A/TO ratio and he's shooting 46% overall and 28% from 3. His TS% and PER aren't bad but he's a volume scorer on a team that needs one.

He's on my dynasty fantasy team, as are RHJ and Carroll. Believe it or not, we're in first place. (The rest of my guys are pretty darn good: KAT, Jokic, Simmons, Nurkic, Dray, Myles Turner.)

Well F. Looks like you stole all the frontcourt stars.

[hickfromfrenchlick]

Russell's putting up 21/7 shooting 51% from the field


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Russell has a 5.6/3.9 A/TO ratio and he's shooting 46% overall and 28% from 3. His TS% and PER aren't bad but he's a volume scorer on a team that needs one.

He's on my dynasty fantasy team, as are RHJ and Carroll. Believe it or not, we're in first place. (The rest of my guys are pretty darn good: KAT, Jokic, Simmons, Nurkic, Dray, Myles Turner.)

Well F. Looks like you stole all the frontcourt stars.

Ha, yeah, thankfully Simmons finally got PG eligibility. It's a dynasty league that started last year (things broke my way -- Jokic blowing up, Nurkic getting traded -- and I was smart to grab Simmons with a mid-round pick and stash him) and there's probably too much position flexibility. I can pretty much play all those guys. Russell's my best guard, after Simmons.

[chrisab123]

I know that, and I also know it's a long season an their starting lineup is:

Deangelo Russel
Levert
Demare Carrol
RHJ
Mozgov

That will contend for the least talented starting lineup the NBA has seen in years. Not a single player is even close to all-star level. Let's wait and see how they do this year.

Who knows...Nets fans treat LeVert as Michael Jordan so maybe they know something we don’t??!!! Lol

Russell's putting up 21/7 shooting 51% from the field


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Russell saves them from being a top 5 pick. Not a great player but someone who has talent. They made a really good trade in the offseason. Hats off to them.

[ConstableGeneva]

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Lol Ball.

[Baller1234a]

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Lol Ball.

Llnzo=Trash

[3D Chess]

Read on Twitter

Lol Ball.

Jayson making a play on The Yank!

[ddb]

Tatum is so damn good & efficient. It's scary how calm & collected he is for a 19 year old. He's getting better and better with each game. I was at the Orlando game....He seems a lot longer than he's listed as well. He's every bit of 6'8...Really good frame to add muscle too as he matures. He's going to be an absolute stud for many, many years.