Bob8 wrote:J_T wrote:It's hard to tell that to someone who has been supporting himself and his family with betting on basketball for 20 years. Especially when I completely agree with them.
The playoff starts in April, not tomorrow. That will be a completely different team.
Olympiacos is currently placed second, playing at home and yet they are considered only 60% fav. if you think that's wrong, you can exploit it yourself. You can bet literally a million.
You can't fool mathematics. It's easy to calculate what home court advantage is worth and Real will probably be the fav in that playoff series even without home court advantage, as long as they will actually be the better team. I think they will be the better team, but of course it could be that they wouldn't be. Having no home court advantage is NOT end of the world.
The main point is that there is enough liquidity to support my view and allow me to hedge the bet so no risk there. We will see what actually happens.
I have enough “gambling” on stock exchange and I like odds much more there. But I have won back2back Euroleague fantasy in
last 2 years, so I have to know something above Euroleague.
Anything can happen. But mistake you and your friends are doing is, you’re predicting future results on old data. Real is with all injuries not the same team like it was 1 month ago. Real is the worst team in last 6 games in Euroleague. Before they start winning some games, you can’t calculate like they’re still one the best teams in Euroleague, because they’re not at the moment. in last month they have lost against Baskonia, Pao and Maccabi away and Khimki, Zvezda at home, and beat only Unicaja, not exactly that they played against the best teams in Euroleague. Just look at Real’s starting 5 and you can see that more than half teams have better starting 5. If they will continue to lose, it won’t even matter how they will play in April. And we don’t know in which position will Real be in March, when Llull and Ayon return and we don’t know how Llull and Ayon will look either. Calculations should be remade or you will have garbage in in garbage out situation.
About playoffs, it looks to me you don’t know some facts. Last year Fener was first team ever to go 0:2 up after 2 away games. And like I said, Bogdanovic looked like LeBron in this 2 nights. In last 4 years it’s 14:2 for teams with home court advantage. Pretty convincing. Saying all that, I’m big fan of Real Madrid and hope you and your friends are right and I’m wrong. But honestly I’m not believing that..Bet on Real not coming in F4 looks incredible interesting if the odds are really that in favor of coming.
Again, if you think that Olympiacos at home is more than 60% fav right now against Real Madrid, I am sure you will not miss the opportunity to place (almost) sure bet.

As for relying on future improvements, when there are 20 rounds and 5 months to go - I think that's a reasonable assumption and I will not change my opinion for the moment. For every injured player there is timetable for return and this timetable tells me that their squad will be better in the future. Real Madrid started the season as top fav of the competition. When the players return I see no reason why they would not be considered best team in Europe again. I think that when the playoffs come, the team that gets home court advantage against them is going to be quite unhappy. I could even see teams trying to avoid Real in last round by resting best players. The reason why teams with home court advantage have been winning so convincingly has in my opinion a lot to do with the fact that teams with home court advantage are better than their opponents. If Real Madrid gets all their players back that would not be the case. Real Madrid will probably be the fav of the playoff series.
We will have to agree to disagree, I guess. Fortunately the future is always ahead of us, should be interesting.
