Luka Doncic part II

[saphan]

So many stats about Luka on twitter lately

This one is about his impact on the team, and the eye test supports the stats. Madrid plays much better with him on the flor, and is negative in scoring (+/-) when he is on the bench.

[reanimator]

This is guy is a PERFECT fit for today's NBA as a combo guard. He's a facilitating Klay Thompson with a handle. Only one I'd take over him at this point is Bagley, and it's a tough choice.

He cannot shoot nor defend on-ball like Klay.

[Don7]

Washington Klay was better defender with 18 then Luka? i really dont no , you followed him then?

[The-Power]

This is guy is a PERFECT fit for today's NBA as a combo guard. He's a facilitating Klay Thompson with a handle. Only one I'd take over him at this point is Bagley, and it's a tough choice.

He cannot shoot nor defend on-ball like Klay.

Like current Klay? No, he can't. But current Klay is 27 and in his prime years while Doncic is 18. Klay came into the league as a worse defender than current Doncic, everybody will tell you that he developed extremely well on that end and that nobody expected this kind of development on defense. And in college, Klay shot below 40% on 3's in his second and third year while shooting ~82% on FTs. He wasn't some kind shooting marvel when he was 18-21 (i.e. even when he was a couple years older than Doncic).

[reanimator]

This is guy is a PERFECT fit for today's NBA as a combo guard. He's a facilitating Klay Thompson with a handle. Only one I'd take over him at this point is Bagley, and it's a tough choice.

He cannot shoot nor defend on-ball like Klay.

Like current Klay? No, he can't. But current Klay is 27 and in his prime years while Doncic is 18. Klay came into the league as a worse defender than current Doncic, everybody will tell you that he developed extremely well on that end and that nobody expected this kind of development on defense. And in college, Klay shot below 40% on 3's in his second and third year while shooting ~82% on FTs. He wasn't some kind shooting marvel when he was 18-21 (i.e. even when he was a couple years older than Doncic).

And Klay's development in both regards is extraordinary and an outlier. You can't use fringe cases as realistic outcomes.
Also, I sincerely doubt Klay was playing on a team with great talent, spacing, or good player development at Washington St.
The rapid development might simply be a product of getting good instruction and playing with talent which is something Doncic has as a luxury.

[The-Power]

He cannot shoot nor defend on-ball like Klay.

Like current Klay? No, he can't. But current Klay is 27 and in his prime years while Doncic is 18. Klay came into the league as a worse defender than current Doncic, everybody will tell you that he developed extremely well on that end and that nobody expected this kind of development on defense. And in college, Klay shot below 40% on 3's in his second and third year while shooting ~82% on FTs. He wasn't some kind shooting marvel when he was 18-21 (i.e. even when he was a couple years older than Doncic).

And Klay's development in both regards is extraordinary and an outlier. You can't use fringe cases as realistic outcomes.
Also, I sincerely doubt Klay was playing on a team with great talent, spacing, or good player development at Washington St.
The rapid development might simply be a product of getting good instruction and playing with talent which is something Doncic has as a luxury.

Doncic already shows signs of being a potentially elite shooter, you can't really ask for much more in this regard at his age. Is it realistic to expect him to become an elite shooter like Klay? Probably not, at least not off the catch (Klay's pull-up 3 really isn't anything special, though). But it's at least more realistic than expecting Ayton to become a good defender or Bagley to develop a genuinely good jumper even though both could still happen. When we talk about prospects we usually project them to develop and often we expect them to be more than they actually do (in some, but clearly less cases it's the opposite).

In other words: to say Doncic will definitely become the shooter Klay is today is unrealistic. To say, however, that he can develop into an elite shooter is fair I'd say and it's less unrealistic than many other implicit or explicit projections made on here every day.

Re: Defense. I'd seriously doubt that Doncic becomes as good an on-ball defender as current Klay. Part of it might be his bigger role on offense, but part of it will also certainly be that Doncic hasn't displayed flashes of elite on-ball defense against smaller players yet and it's hard to project him to develop this ability on a consistent basis. He has, however, other tools to make an impact on defense that Klay doesn't show us – namely defensive rebounding, playing the passing lanes and contesting shots at the rim as a help defender. Doncic isn't elite in any of that (except perhaps for rebounding from his position) but has advantages on Klay in those areas.

Whether he can become the defender Klay has become remains to be seen and it's fair to remain skeptical if you like Klay's defense. But overall Klay's defense is nothing to write home about either, imo. Great player to have guarding the ball handlers because he does a reliable and good job on them, but among all SGs I'd say Klay's defense is somewhere between a bit above average and good but not elite by any means.

Also I'm fairly certain clyde wasn't saying that he's exactly like Klay with playmaking and ball handling skills, of course there are differences in some areas. I personally wouldn't use Klay as a comparison because of the number of clear differences on both ends but after all everybody sees different NBA players in the prospects we scout.

[Rn5ho]

He cannot shoot nor defend on-ball like Klay.

Like current Klay? No, he can't. But current Klay is 27 and in his prime years while Doncic is 18. Klay came into the league as a worse defender than current Doncic, everybody will tell you that he developed extremely well on that end and that nobody expected this kind of development on defense. And in college, Klay shot below 40% on 3's in his second and third year while shooting ~82% on FTs. He wasn't some kind shooting marvel when he was 18-21 (i.e. even when he was a couple years older than Doncic).

And Klay's development in both regards is extraordinary and an outlier. You can't use fringe cases as realistic outcomes.
Also, I sincerely doubt Klay was playing on a team with great talent, spacing, or good player development at Washington St.
The rapid development might simply be a product of getting good instruction and playing with talent which is something Doncic has as a luxury.

To be honest the team Luka is playing on is probably the worst in whole EL (without injured players), so he's by far the best player and can't really depend on his teammates either, yet he still produces outstanding stats. Sure the structure in club is elite, but actual team (teammates) are all few classes below him.

[SportsGuy8]

He cannot shoot nor defend on-ball like Klay.

Like current Klay? No, he can't. But current Klay is 27 and in his prime years while Doncic is 18. Klay came into the league as a worse defender than current Doncic, everybody will tell you that he developed extremely well on that end and that nobody expected this kind of development on defense. And in college, Klay shot below 40% on 3's in his second and third year while shooting ~82% on FTs. He wasn't some kind shooting marvel when he was 18-21 (i.e. even when he was a couple years older than Doncic).

And Klay's development in both regards is extraordinary and an outlier. You can't use fringe cases as realistic outcomes.
Also, I sincerely doubt Klay was playing on a team with great talent, spacing, or good player development at Washington St.
The rapid development might simply be a product of getting good instruction and playing with talent which is something Doncic has as a luxury.

Most of that talent is injured this year, though.

You're correct, though. You should never use exceptions when trying to foresee the future, you get completely unrealistic results that way. Such improvements are unrealistic and rarely happen. I do think that Doncic's 3pt percentages are going to increase, but I'm going to be very surprised if he ends up being a much better shooter than Gallinari, for example. I would bet on something around 38% for Doncic's career 3pt%, maybe 39. That's also quite great, btw., just not on Klay's level.

We also shouldn't forget that Doncic is surely already getting ELITE shooting coaching at Real. He's not some high-school and/or college kid who trained under questionable coaches ...

[XTraderXL]

It might sound strange or not logical but I believe Doncic would play even better if half of the team was not injured. He probably wouldnt have the stats he has now but he would be more efficient. Its much easier to play with better teammates, its a huge difference.

I played my first real senior season when I was 17. I got about 20 min per game. I was also playing U18 at the time and strangely, it was easier for me to play the senior competition even though the level of competition was much higher. It was all because the teammates were better, they understood the game in a different way and I could have almost the same effect just playing in the flow of the game. Usage rate was obviusly lower than in youth comp but efficiency was actually up with seniors. Next year I got the lead role and played lights out while still playing U18 and again it was easier for me to play with seniors. Its easier to get in position, you know where the players will/should be, you get better help on defense, better refs...

The point is that level of competition of course plays a role but I think when a player is at a certain level, surrounding players are the factor which is more important than actual opponents. When Real gets injured players back, Doncic will raise his game on another level. You will not see it in stats (usage rate will be lower) but the 25min he will play will be more efficient and he will also be way better on defense. We just have to wait a couple of months to see it...

[Bob8]

Luka has flu, didn’t train for 2 days. Yesterday he did half of training and will almost certainly play today.

[Nikson]

It might sound strange or not logical but I believe Doncic would play even better if half of the team was not injured. He probably wouldnt have the stats he has now but he would be more efficient. Its much easier to play with better teammates, its a huge difference.

I played my first real senior season when I was 17. I got about 20 min per game. I was also playing U18 at the time and strangely, it was easier for me to play the senior competition even though the level of competition was much higher. It was all because the teammates were better, they understood the game in a different way and I could have almost the same effect just playing in the flow of the game. Usage rate was obviusly lower than in youth comp but efficiency was actually up with seniors. Next year I got the lead role and played lights out while still playing U18 and again it was easier for me to play with seniors. Its easier to get in position, you know where the players will/should be, you get better help on defense, better refs...

The point is that level of competition of course plays a role but I think when a player is at a certain level, surrounding players are the factor which is more important than actual opponents. When Real gets injured players back, Doncic will raise his game on another level. You will not see it in stats (usage rate will be lower) but the 25min he will play will be more efficient and he will also be way better on defense. We just have to wait a couple of months to see it...

At least his assist numbers will rise.

[narcolepsy]

I actually miss having Othelo Hunter on Real, I think he's been the best pick and roll player for Doncic. I remember few games last season where they were just unstoppable. Ayon is also really good because he's got high basketball iq and can make an extra pass for an easy look.

9/1/5 in first half for Luka, he didnt force much, mostly looked to get his teammates involved, Trey Thompkins really needs to hit his shots, you cant get any better looks than that.

[narcolepsy]

hahahaha finally a full court shot paid off

[FlorentinoPerez]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

[FlorentinoPerez]

IN THE PRESSENCE OF GREATNESS

[tria]

Hhah, he finaly hit one of his regular shots in last seconds of quarters. From opposite free throw line even

[Juree93]

Read on Twitter

[Bjorpa]

As a Suns fan, I'm hoping the Bulls, Hawks, Kings, etc don't believe he will translate to the NBA

what did you try to say here?

That I hope he falls to the Suns.

[narcolepsy]

DAMN I feel bad for Claver, that was dirty

[J_T]

Read on Twitter

The face he makes afterwards, what a boss.