2018 Draft Thread #6

[Moosegary]

Maybe Robinson turns in to something, but I'm not touching him in the top 15 or even 20 with the possible red flags combined with the unknown of not playing college basketball. It's a pity he didn't go play overseas or something like Ferguson did last season so we could get more of a feel on him.

But if you want a big, there's already athletic freaks like Williams or Gafford without the red flags, or more skilled options like Porter. I'd take all 3 before Robinson.

Ya I would definitely take Williams in front of him. Would love to see the Bulls bring the others in for workouts to go against each other. I don’t know what happened at Western Kentucky, grand father was an assistant coach then was let go. I agree sounds weird. I wish the G-League was an option but I can see why they turn him down.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

It's an interesting question. Who should the Bulls select if they're not in a position to draft Ayton, JJJ, Bamba, Doncic, Bagley, Porter Jr.? I'd probably go with Young or Sexton.

I’d go Young and not feel great about it. Bulls would go with a Bridges brother, I’m almost certain.

[GimmeDat]

^Yeah I'd take Young out on a BPA basis but I'm not that hot on the outcome.

[Davell]

It's an interesting question. Who should the Bulls select if they're not in a position to draft Ayton, JJJ, Bamba, Doncic, Bagley, Porter Jr.? I'd probably go with Young or Sexton.

I’d go Young and not feel great about it. Bulls would go with a Bridges brother, I’m almost certain.

At this exact point, I think I'd go Mikal Bridges or Carter, over Trae.

[RSP83]

Anybody here listens to The Ringer podcast? Their last episode talks exclusively about the draft. Had some interesting thoughts about Bagley's projection. They don't value him as high as most people do, said that Bagley is a bit of a tweener, and not in a good way, more Julius Randle than Draymond Green. Coincidentally, I'm also not very high on Bagley. I can see the Randle comparison, overpowering in college, but won't have that size advantage in the NBA, and don't have a good enough 3-point shot to fit in today's NBA, and not really a strong interior defender/shot blocker either.

They're also not high on Trae Young, which I'm aligned with as well. I just don't like his style, he's like Steph Curry but playing without his brain turned on.

JJ and Ayton got positive reviews.

[RSP83]

It's an interesting question. Who should the Bulls select if they're not in a position to draft Ayton, JJJ, Bamba, Doncic, Bagley, Porter Jr.? I'd probably go with Young or Sexton.

I’d go Young and not feel great about it. Bulls would go with a Bridges brother, I’m almost certain.

At this exact point, I think I'd go Mikal Bridges or Carter, over Trae.

I think I'd be happy with Spsrtans duo JJ and Miles Bridges.

[The Box Office]

Anybody here listens to The Ringer podcast? Their last episode talks exclusively about the draft. Had some interesting thoughts about Bagley's projection. They don't value him as high as most people do, said that Bagley is a bit of a tweener, and not in a good way, more Julius Randle than Draymond Green. Coincidentally, I'm also not very high on Bagley. I can see the Randle comparison, overpowering in college, but won't have that size advantage in the NBA, and don't have a good enough 3-point shot to fit in today's NBA, and not really a strong interior defender/shot blocker either.

They're also not high on Trae Young, which I'm aligned with as well. I just don't like his style, he's like Steph Curry but playing without his brain turned on.

JJ and Ayton got positive reviews.

Yup I agree. I think of Trae Young as a kid getting super stats in college, but will not get that in the pros. I don't know. I've seen this many times. It just looks suspect. Harold Miner and Buddy Hield come to my mind.

Bagley is the big one for me. I was high on him, but seeing him more and more leaves me unconvinced. I'm not high on any player coming from Duke. Duke players just piss me off except for Grant Hill.

[GimmeDat]

Randles not a bad comparison at all, but I think Bagley is a better athlete, has a more projectable jumpshot, and has more of a chance to be a better defender/rim protector.

[ArizonaBullsFan]

But doesn't the point still stand that Ayton is having a season like few others have? Even if he was 1 of 20 players to achieve it I'd still say that qualifies as historic.

Ayton and Bagley are putting up video game numbers out there. That gets hard to overlook at some point.

Eh, not if you study history, which as the saying goes, always repeats itself.

Per 40 Min:

DA - 24.2 Pts, 13.4 Reb, 1.8 Ast, 0.6 Stl, 2.3 Blk, 2.2 TO, .647 TS%

MB1- 25.8 Pts, 13.9 Reb, 2.0 Ast, 1.2 Stl, 1.3 Blk, 2.9 TO, .628 TS%

MB2- 33.3 Pts, 15.7 Reb, 1.5 Ast, 1.6 Stl, 2.1 Blk, 3.7 TO, .610 TS%

Obviously DA is Ayton, MB1 is Bagley... MB2 is Michael Beasley, 10 years ago. Beasley turned 19 in January of that season.

As for Ayton's "historic" numbers, as I mentioned in another post, those "benchmark" season comparisons are pretty iffy (though certainly 100% factual).

I wonder how many college players under 20 in history have joined Beasley in putting up per 40:

33+ pts
15+ reb
2+ blk
1+ ast
1+ stl
.610+ TS%

I agree with you that it's certainly historic, but it's damn near a lock that if the Bulls pick top-2 this summer and get Michael Beasley, fans are not going to be happy.

"Bust" can have different definitions, but for me if a guy is the #2 overall pick in any sport and never makes a single All-Star game, dude's a bust, plain and simple.

[GimmeDat]

If Michael Beasley the college prospect was in this draft, I'd have him as a top pick as well. He had all the talent in the world to be a star NBA player. Sometimes things just don't come together at the NBA level for a myriad of reasons.

[StunnerKO]

Read on Twitter

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Trae Young's passing has been great in this game.

[NADROJ]

The tankers are in a win-win situation. If the Bulls still end up with a top 4 pick, they're happy. If we end up with a pick like 7 or 8, and they aren't as good as any one of the players taken ahead of that, they get to say "I told you so" (even though there's no guarantee we would have actually taken that particular player). And because we haven't done a 100% tank job, they don't have to live with the results of that decisions- i.e., if we ended up picking 2nd, let's say, and drafted a guy who turns out to be not very good. And on top of that, all the losing destroys the morale of the rest of the team, leads to a bunch of internal bickering, maybe Fred's ouster, who knows what all.

About the only way this can not go right for the tankers is if we pick 7-8th and wind up with another Lauri type pick.

I'm almost positive I disagree with you, but kudos for making it impossible to know for sure.

[Red Larrivee]

If Michael Beasley the college prospect was in this draft, I'd have him as a top pick as well. He had all the talent in the world to be a star NBA player. Sometimes things just don't come together at the NBA level for a myriad of reasons.

I think the other point is that great college numbers don't necessarily equal great NBA players. Sure, you'd prefer to see a player producing well, but the idea is to project traits before numbers. Not much is said by saying "Oh, Player X is one of 3 players to put up stats like this in the last 20 years and the other two players became all-stars."

For instance, here's the numbers of a 19-year-old, five-star recruit freshman about six years ago:

16.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, .533/.375/.701 (.609 TS%) shooting line in 27.1 mpg.

Per 40, that rounds out to:

23.7 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks.

Sounds like a great talent right?

Spoiler:

Anthony Bennett

[ArizonaBullsFan]

If Michael Beasley the college prospect was in this draft, I'd have him as a top pick as well. He had all the talent in the world to be a star NBA player. Sometimes things just don't come together at the NBA level for a myriad of reasons.

Without a doubt. 100% agreed. And he'd still be a bust. (Somebody actually said to me the other day that Marvin Williams isn't a bust, he's had a nice career. If you go #2 overall and never even make an All-Star team and have the career Marvin has had, you're a bust).

Pretty much every draft in every sport, the guys taken top-3 or so are there because teams expect them to be at the very least multiple-time All-Stars as pros.

All I can do is laugh, you just see so many fans (not just here, every team) who are 100% certain that Bagley or Ayton or Porter or Mike Hunt is a can't miss future superstar based on roughly 30 college games. Even with a 20-consecutive-year history of every single draft seeing either the #1 or #2 pick be a bust.

People declaring 100% that this season is a failure for the Bulls if we don't wind up with a top-3 pick, as if that guarantees one goddamn thing.

The one thing that used to annoy me (now I just laugh) is when people reply to basic history with the same old strawman bait-post:

"It's much better to have a top-3 pick than top-7, more players to choose from, it's so simple I can't believe anyone doesn't see that"

No freaking sheet, and nobody has ever said it's not better to pick #3 than #7. There's 4 more players available at #3.

[DanTown8587]

Anybody here listens to The Ringer podcast? Their last episode talks exclusively about the draft. Had some interesting thoughts about Bagley's projection. They don't value him as high as most people do, said that Bagley is a bit of a tweener, and not in a good way, more Julius Randle than Draymond Green. Coincidentally, I'm also not very high on Bagley. I can see the Randle comparison, overpowering in college, but won't have that size advantage in the NBA, and don't have a good enough 3-point shot to fit in today's NBA, and not really a strong interior defender/shot blocker either.

They're also not high on Trae Young, which I'm aligned with as well. I just don't like his style, he's like Steph Curry but playing without his brain turned on.

JJ and Ayton got positive reviews.

I don't get that analogy because Randle's main problem is that he's too small to play a small ball five but Bagley has the length to do so. Also, Bagley doesn't have the same straight line/lefty drive that Randle does but he plays much bigger at the rim than Randle does. If you gave Randle Bagley's size and athleticism, you'd be looking at a legit superstar.

I think people are starting to sleep on Bagley and are forgetting that draft picks is far more about how they project than how good that guy is today. I get that Bagley isn't where Ayton is today for example but drafts aren't about projecting today.

[League Circles]

If we get Bagley, who do you guys see defending opposing centers more, him or Lauri?

[Red Larrivee]

Oklahoma's defense is basically 5 on 4 every possession.

[League Circles]

Oklahoma's defense is basically 5 on 4 every possession.

Dumb question, but by that do you mean Young can't defend?

[ArizonaBullsFan]

If Michael Beasley the college prospect was in this draft, I'd have him as a top pick as well. He had all the talent in the world to be a star NBA player. Sometimes things just don't come together at the NBA level for a myriad of reasons.

I think the other point is that great college numbers don't necessarily equal great NBA players. Sure, you'd prefer to see a player producing well, but the idea is to project traits before numbers. Not much is said by saying "Oh, Player X is one of 3 players to put up stats like this in the last 20 years and the other two players became all-stars."

For instance, here's the numbers of a 19-year-old, five-star recruit freshman about six years ago:

16.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, .533/.375/.701 (.609 TS%) shooting line in 27.1 mpg.

Per 40, that rounds out to:

23.7 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks.

Sounds like a great talent right?

Spoiler:

Anthony Bennett

Per 40:

13.1 Pts, 11.9 Reb, 5.5 Blk, 2.6 Stl, 2.0 Ast
27.3 PER
.583 TS%

Spoiler:

Nerlens Noel

2015 SEC:
Player of the Year
All-SEC 1st Team
All-SEC 2nd Team

Spoiler:

Bobby Portis
Karl-Anthony Towns
Devin Booker