The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[michaelm]

He’s never going to score as much as Lebron, comparing them and their points per game doesn’t make sense. He’s going to be a special Point Guard, though.

The scorer vs shooter argument certainly applies to Lebron, close to the most unstoppable scorer in NBA history, although there have been numerous better shooters, among whom Donovan Mitchell is likely to number. I don't think even with a semi-serviceable jumper Simmons will ever average 30 ppg for a season, whereas Mitchell might well do so.

[nurseryc]

He’s never going to score as much as Lebron, comparing them and their points per game doesn’t make sense. He’s going to be a special Point Guard, though.

I wouldn’t write off Simmons putting up high ppg at some point in his career given he already can score at will.

[michaelm]

He’s never going to score as much as Lebron, comparing them and their points per game doesn’t make sense. He’s going to be a special Point Guard, though.

I wouldn’t write off Simmons putting up high ppg at some point in his career given he already can score at will.

If he does what you have said will be true. He would need to be a LeBron level shooter though, which he hasn't shown many signs of ever being as yet.

[LordCovington33]

Read on Twitter

/photo/1
Ben creating clear separation from the pack.

[Winglish]

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/photo/1
Ben creating clear separation from the pack.

The player on the farthest right is Donovan Mitchell. Pretty clear separation that way also.

It's obviously Mitchell and Simmons and then everybody else for ROTY.

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[levon]

Can someone explain TPA and why there's such a separation between Simmons and Ball when their DRPMs are so close?

[QPR]

I think part of the narrative is that it seems unfair that Mitchell could have this sort of season and not win the award, especially with Brogdon winning it last year.

Unfortunately he is up against someone who is having a historic rookie season. If voters are genuine than it should be unanimously Simmons. He has easily had the most complete season as a whole.

[MR28]

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/photo/1
Ben creating clear separation from the pack.

The player on the farthest right is Donovan Mitchell. Pretty clear separation that way also.

It's obviously Mitchell and Simmons and then everybody else for ROTY.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

30 points vs 160 points..

[michaelm]

I think part of the narrative is that it seems unfair that Mitchell could have this sort of season and not win the award, especially with Brogdon winning it last year.

Unfortunately he is up against someone who is having a historic rookie season. If voters are genuine than it should be unanimously Simmons. He has easily had the most complete season as a whole.

Best take I have seen on all this yet.

Quite legitimate to think DM should be ROTY with the season he is having, he would be a lock for ROTY most years on his current form, and that in the normal course of events Simmons should have been ROTY last year instead of Brogdon and Mitchell ROTY this year. While it is happenstance, or fate perhaps, that Simmons is a rookie this year, it is undeniable that he actually didn't play any NBA games last year however, and I haven't seen any moves for Griffin's ROTY award to be taken away from him. Once the rule is that the qualification is other than having played no NBA games I think you can forget the whole thing.

[LordCovington33]

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/photo/1
Ben creating clear separation from the pack.

The player on the farthest right is Donovan Mitchell. Pretty clear separation that way also.

It's obviously Mitchell and Simmons and then everybody else for ROTY.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

30 points vs 160 points..

Yep. Mitchell and Tatum have similar points but at different ends of the spectrum. Only separation if you forget that there are two sides of the ball.

[michaelm]

The player on the farthest right is Donovan Mitchell. Pretty clear separation that way also.

It's obviously Mitchell and Simmons and then everybody else for ROTY.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

30 points vs 160 points..

Yep. Mitchell and Tatum have similar points but at different ends of the spectrum. Only separation if you forget that there are two sides of the ball.

As someone has pointed out the axes have different scales, and offensive points added probably involves less assumptions than defensive points saved.

[deflated]

Can someone explain TPA and why there's such a separation between Simmons and Ball when their DRPMs are so close?

1) TPA is cumulative - it's a season impact rating. Simmons has a DRtg 3 points better than Ball; that adds up really quick over 50 games.
2) Ball isn't that close to Simmons by other defensive metrics - DBPM, DWS, etc. DRPM is a bit of an outlier.

[levon]

Can someone explain TPA and why there's such a separation between Simmons and Ball when their DRPMs are so close?

1) TPA is cumulative - it's a season impact rating. Simmons has a DRtg 3 points better than Ball; that adds up really quick over 50 games.
2) Ball isn't that close to Simmons by other defensive metrics - DBPM, DWS, etc. DRPM is a bit of an outlier.

What are other defensive metrics? I've heard DRtg is more unreliable for individual defense than the ones you mentioned above.

[Jazztop]

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/photo/1
Ben creating clear separation from the pack.

It’s telling...but nothing is as good as the eye test for me. The eye test tells me Donovan Mitchell is a better defender than that graphic suggests. I’ve also seen Sixer games and Simmons is really, really good on that side of the ball so that fits with the defensive rating.

I still think this race is wide open and will continue to see saw. I think if the numbers stay similar and Utah make the playoffs, you have to give it to DM.

[SmartWentCrazy]

For a guy who wont make any all-rookie teams, Daniel Theis is having a really nice season. He dropped 19 and 7 with 2 blocks, 2 steals and 2 threes last night vs the Pistons.

[LordCovington33]

For a guy who wont make any all-rookie teams, Daniel Theis is having a really nice season. He dropped 19 and 7 with 2 blocks, 2 steals and 2 threes last night vs the Pistons.

It looks to be a good defender.

edit: *He looks....

[bebopdeluxe]

Read on Twitter

/photo/1
Ben creating clear separation from the pack.

It’s telling...but nothing is as good as the eye test for me. The eye test tells me Donovan Mitchell is a better defender than that graphic suggests. I’ve also seen Sixer games and Simmons is really, really good on that side of the ball so that fits with the defensive rating.

I still think this race is wide open and will continue to see saw. I think if the numbers stay similar and Utah make the playoffs, you have to give it to DM.

I love these "eye test" arguments for Mitchell...almost as much as the ROY buzz that Mitchell gets after his dunk in Rising Stars game (the game where he scored in single digits while Simmons pollutes the stat sheet).

Dude shot 8-for-20 last night, which passes my "eye test" of his typical box score. Pretty much forgettble numbers other than his scoring as well - as well as his 1-to-2 AST/TO ratio.

Between these "eye test" comments and references to "if the Jazz make the playoffs DM is the ROY", I wonder what the Sixers have to do as a team to offset this narrative. 4 seed? 50 wins?

[Jazztop]

Read on Twitter

/photo/1
Ben creating clear separation from the pack.

It’s telling...but nothing is as good as the eye test for me. The eye test tells me Donovan Mitchell is a better defender than that graphic suggests. I’ve also seen Sixer games and Simmons is really, really good on that side of the ball so that fits with the defensive rating.

I still think this race is wide open and will continue to see saw. I think if the numbers stay similar and Utah make the playoffs, you have to give it to DM.

I love these "eye test" arguments for Mitchell...almost as much as the ROY buzz that Mitchell gets after his dunk in Rising Stars game (the game where he scored in single digits while Simmons pollutes the stat sheet).

Dude shot 8-for-20 last night, which passes my "eye test" of his typical box score. Pretty much forgettble numbers other than his scoring as well - as well as his 1-to-2 AST/TO ratio.

Between these "eye test" comments and references to "if the Jazz make the playoffs DM is the ROY", I wonder what the Sixers have to do as a team to offset this narrative. 4 seed? 50 wins?

I think I gave due credit to Simmons in my post - he’s spectacular. Especially on the defensive end. DM’s performance was not spectacular against the Blazers but he certainly wasn’t the worst and 8 from 20 isn’t the worst stat line for a SG rook who’s trying to carry the offense.

I just think that if the Jazz make the playoffs - and they’d need to win at least 43 imo it will be mostly because of DM and NOBODY expected them to make it after losing Hayward. If the 76ers win about 44 and sneak in then it would be because of Simmons but more so Embiid. And I think many expected them to break through this year.

So that’s my argument and you’re welcome to disagree. Of course I made my point assuming similar trajectory of win totals and stats (with some elevation for the Jazz because of their recent run)

[LordCovington33]

It’s telling...but nothing is as good as the eye test for me. The eye test tells me Donovan Mitchell is a better defender than that graphic suggests. I’ve also seen Sixer games and Simmons is really, really good on that side of the ball so that fits with the defensive rating.

I still think this race is wide open and will continue to see saw. I think if the numbers stay similar and Utah make the playoffs, you have to give it to DM.

I love these "eye test" arguments for Mitchell...almost as much as the ROY buzz that Mitchell gets after his dunk in Rising Stars game (the game where he scored in single digits while Simmons pollutes the stat sheet).

Dude shot 8-for-20 last night, which passes my "eye test" of his typical box score. Pretty much forgettble numbers other than his scoring as well - as well as his 1-to-2 AST/TO ratio.

Between these "eye test" comments and references to "if the Jazz make the playoffs DM is the ROY", I wonder what the Sixers have to do as a team to offset this narrative. 4 seed? 50 wins?

I think I gave due credit to Simmons in my post - he’s spectacular. Especially on the defensive end. DM’s performance was not spectacular against the Blazers but he certainly wasn’t the worst and 8 from 20 isn’t the worst stat line for a SG rook who’s trying to carry the offense.

I just think that if the Jazz make the playoffs - and they’d need to win at least 43 imo it will be mostly because of DM and NOBODY expected them to make it after losing Hayward. If the 76ers win about 44 and sneak in then it would be because of Simmons but more so Embiid. And I think many expected them to break through this year.

So that’s my argument and you’re welcome to disagree. Of course I made my point assuming similar trajectory of win totals and stats (with some elevation for the Jazz because of their recent run)

Gobert and Ingles are chopped liver now? The Jazz winning streak coincided with the return of Gobert, who is a beast on the defensive end.

[bebopdeluxe]

I love these "eye test" arguments for Mitchell...almost as much as the ROY buzz that Mitchell gets after his dunk in Rising Stars game (the game where he scored in single digits while Simmons pollutes the stat sheet).

Dude shot 8-for-20 last night, which passes my "eye test" of his typical box score. Pretty much forgettble numbers other than his scoring as well - as well as his 1-to-2 AST/TO ratio.

Between these "eye test" comments and references to "if the Jazz make the playoffs DM is the ROY", I wonder what the Sixers have to do as a team to offset this narrative. 4 seed? 50 wins?

I think I gave due credit to Simmons in my post - he’s spectacular. Especially on the defensive end. DM’s performance was not spectacular against the Blazers but he certainly wasn’t the worst and 8 from 20 isn’t the worst stat line for a SG rook who’s trying to carry the offense.

I just think that if the Jazz make the playoffs - and they’d need to win at least 43 imo it will be mostly because of DM and NOBODY expected them to make it after losing Hayward. If the 76ers win about 44 and sneak in then it would be because of Simmons but more so Embiid. And I think many expected them to break through this year.

So that’s my argument and you’re welcome to disagree. Of course I made my point assuming similar trajectory of win totals and stats (with some elevation for the Jazz because of their recent run)

Gobert and Ingles are chopped liver now? The Jazz winning streak coincided with the return of Gobert, who is a beast on the defensive end.

Yeah, right?

Gobert is the Jazz's MVP and the reason why they have been so hot lately.