John Wall Appreciation Thread - Part III

[payitforward]

I was being sarcastic, but I appreciate the response. I think Wall needs to be much more consistent on defense and has to reign in the bad midrange shots.

Let me get your take on this. Some of these discussions act like the Wizards have been a .500 team the last few years but unlocked the magic formula when Wall got injured. There is a lot of talk about how the Wizards are sharing the ball without Wall.

But what was up with last years team? How did "Wall dominant" ball have them on a 55 win pace for a lot of the season? Was there some kind of issue with the offense on last years team? Was it a team that didn't move the ball around? I feel like that developed this season, but I think for two months last year they had the second highest winning percentage in the league behind Golden State. How were they doing that with the flawed "Wall ball" style? Am I wrong or did we have one of the best performing starting line-ups in the league? The issue seemed to be defense and having no bench.

I think last year's offense with a better defense and a better bench would win the East this year.

But it hasn't worked out that way, I'm not sure if it's less an indictment on Wall's style of play and more of a result of him playing hurt and being generally ineffective.

The team won 49 games last year, so let's not talk about 55 wins like it actually happened.

And now we are seeing that the same team, with Sato in place of Wall, looks like it can win at the same pace, perhaps even at a slightly better pace. And that supports what I was saying earlier that so much of Wall's positive contributions are offset by his negatives.

It goes w/o saying that John's positive contributions can't be viewed alone in assessing his play, that his negatives have to be subtracted from them to arrive at his net positive impact.

But, that's true of any player of course. & every player puts up negative numbers. The best player in the world will turn the ball over some number of times per 40 minutes.

Last year, his best year, his positive contributions offset his negatives to the greatest degree of any season in his career -- duh! that's what it means to say it was his best year! As a result, he was one of the best PGs in the league last year. He was behind Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kyle Lowry, Steph Curry, Mike Conley, & Isaiah Thomas (whether his fanatical fans like it or not), but that is still an extremely high level of play.

If he played at last year's level from now on in his career, that would be great.

That said, in the last month Tomas Satoransky has been playing, overall, at a higher level than Wall played even last year. He is also playing differently, of course, nor can there be any guarantee that he'd be able to play at this level for a whole season, let alone for his career. For one thing, how much time have teams been able to put into figuring him out & preparing for him? All the same, right now, overall, he is absolutely killing it. That's why we're 10-4 in that stretch. Duh.

Now, Wall's fanatical fans won't like reading that, & they'll imagine that it means I think Sato should start when Wall returns, etc. Who cares? Facts are facts, & that's the way Satoransky is playing.

[Shanghai Kid]

I was being sarcastic, but I appreciate the response. I think Wall needs to be much more consistent on defense and has to reign in the bad midrange shots.

Let me get your take on this. Some of these discussions act like the Wizards have been a .500 team the last few years but unlocked the magic formula when Wall got injured. There is a lot of talk about how the Wizards are sharing the ball without Wall.

But what was up with last years team? How did "Wall dominant" ball have them on a 55 win pace for a lot of the season? Was there some kind of issue with the offense on last years team? Was it a team that didn't move the ball around? I feel like that developed this season, but I think for two months last year they had the second highest winning percentage in the league behind Golden State. How were they doing that with the flawed "Wall ball" style? Am I wrong or did we have one of the best performing starting line-ups in the league? The issue seemed to be defense and having no bench.

I think last year's offense with a better defense and a better bench would win the East this year.

But it hasn't worked out that way, I'm not sure if it's less an indictment on Wall's style of play and more of a result of him playing hurt and being generally ineffective.

The team won 49 games last year, so let's not talk about 55 wins like it actually happened.

And now we are seeing that the same team, with Sato in place of Wall, looks like it can win at the same pace, perhaps even at a slightly better pace. And that supports what I was saying earlier that so much of Wall's positive contributions are offset by his negatives.

It goes w/o saying that John's positive contributions can't be viewed alone in assessing his play, that his negatives have to be subtracted from them to arrive at his net positive impact.

But, that's true of any player of course. & every player puts up negative numbers. The best player in the world will turn the ball over some number of times per 40 minutes.

Last year, his best year, his positive contributions offset his negatives to the greatest degree of any season in his career -- duh! that's what it means to say it was his best year! As a result, he was one of the best PGs in the league last year. He was behind Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kyle Lowry, Steph Curry, Mike Conley, & Isaiah Thomas (whether his fanatical fans like it or not), but that is still an extremely high level of play.

If he played at last year's level from now on in his career, that would be great.

That said, in the last month Tomas Satoransky has been playing, overall, at a higher level than Wall played even last year. He is also playing differently, of course, nor can there be any guarantee that he'd be able to play at this level for a whole season, let alone for his career. For one thing, how much time have teams been able to put into figuring him out & preparing for him? All the same, right now, overall, he is absolutely killing it. That's why we're 10-4 in that stretch. Duh.

Now, Wall's fanatical fans won't like reading that, & they'll imagine that it means I think Sato should start when Wall returns, etc. Who cares? Facts are facts, & that's the way Satoransky is playing.

Its a fact that Sato is playing at a higher level then Wall did last year? Am I a Wall fanatic if I disagree with that objective fact? I think its arguable which is a testament to Sato. But I think Wall at one point won player of the month while leading us through a better winning stretch then the 10-4 Sato has.

But I do agree with the rest of your post.

[CobraCommander]

The team won 49 games last year, so let's not talk about 55 wins like it actually happened.

And now we are seeing that the same team, with Sato in place of Wall, looks like it can win at the same pace, perhaps even at a slightly better pace. And that supports what I was saying earlier that so much of Wall's positive contributions are offset by his negatives.

It goes w/o saying that John's positive contributions can't be viewed alone in assessing his play, that his negatives have to be subtracted from them to arrive at his net positive impact.

But, that's true of any player of course. & every player puts up negative numbers. The best player in the world will turn the ball over some number of times per 40 minutes.

Last year, his best year, his positive contributions offset his negatives to the greatest degree of any season in his career -- duh! that's what it means to say it was his best year! As a result, he was one of the best PGs in the league last year. He was behind Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kyle Lowry, Steph Curry, Mike Conley, & Isaiah Thomas (whether his fanatical fans like it or not), but that is still an extremely high level of play.

If he played at last year's level from now on in his career, that would be great.

That said, in the last month Tomas Satoransky has been playing, overall, at a higher level than Wall played even last year. He is also playing differently, of course, nor can there be any guarantee that he'd be able to play at this level for a whole season, let alone for his career. For one thing, how much time have teams been able to put into figuring him out & preparing for him? All the same, right now, overall, he is absolutely killing it. That's why we're 10-4 in that stretch. Duh.

Now, Wall's fanatical fans won't like reading that, & they'll imagine that it means I think Sato should start when Wall returns, etc. Who cares? Facts are facts, & that's the way Satoransky is playing.

Its a fact that Sato is playing at a higher level then Wall did last year? Am I a Wall fanatic if I disagree with that objective fact?

But I do agree with the rest of your post.

I thought he was joking about Sato playing at a higher level than Wall last year when i thought...wow Wall made a AllNBA team and avg 23 and 11...some of the Sato Hyperbole is over the top...I love WhiteWall but wow...better than a ALLNBA team nod ?? Wow y’all officially trippin now....LOL

Yeah ill have what PayItForward is havin...

[Shanghai Kid]

It goes w/o saying that John's positive contributions can't be viewed alone in assessing his play, that his negatives have to be subtracted from them to arrive at his net positive impact.

But, that's true of any player of course. & every player puts up negative numbers. The best player in the world will turn the ball over some number of times per 40 minutes.

Last year, his best year, his positive contributions offset his negatives to the greatest degree of any season in his career -- duh! that's what it means to say it was his best year! As a result, he was one of the best PGs in the league last year. He was behind Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kyle Lowry, Steph Curry, Mike Conley, & Isaiah Thomas (whether his fanatical fans like it or not), but that is still an extremely high level of play.

If he played at last year's level from now on in his career, that would be great.

That said, in the last month Tomas Satoransky has been playing, overall, at a higher level than Wall played even last year. He is also playing differently, of course, nor can there be any guarantee that he'd be able to play at this level for a whole season, let alone for his career. For one thing, how much time have teams been able to put into figuring him out & preparing for him? All the same, right now, overall, he is absolutely killing it. That's why we're 10-4 in that stretch. Duh.

Now, Wall's fanatical fans won't like reading that, & they'll imagine that it means I think Sato should start when Wall returns, etc. Who cares? Facts are facts, & that's the way Satoransky is playing.

Its a fact that Sato is playing at a higher level then Wall did last year? Am I a Wall fanatic if I disagree with that objective fact?

But I do agree with the rest of your post.

I thought he was joking about Sato playing at a higher level than Wall last year when i thought...wow Wall made a AllNBA team and avg 23 and 11...some of the Sato Hyperbole is over the top...I love WhiteWall but wow...better than a ALLNBA team nod ?? Wow y’all officially trippin now....LOL

Yeah ill have what PayItForward is havin...

I think he recently said that Rubio and someone Im forgetting was better then Wall also.

The hyperbole is strong with Payitforward.

[P'Oed]

John Wall closed out the Atlanta Hawks singlehandedly on the road in a game 6 playoff game with 42 points. In fact, his playoff performances last year were all around impressive. I love what Sato is doing as much as anyone but as we all know, playoff basketball is quite different. Do we win that first round series last year with this year's version of Sato? I'm not sure. Maybe? But John willed the team to the second round. That's hard to argue.

[CobraCommander]

Its a fact that Sato is playing at a higher level then Wall did last year? Am I a Wall fanatic if I disagree with that objective fact?

But I do agree with the rest of your post.

I thought he was joking about Sato playing at a higher level than Wall last year when i thought...wow Wall made a AllNBA team and avg 23 and 11...some of the Sato Hyperbole is over the top...I love WhiteWall but wow...better than a ALLNBA team nod ?? Wow y’all officially trippin now....LOL

Yeah ill have what PayItForward is havin...

I think he recently said that Rubio and someone Im forgetting was better then Wall also.

The hyperbole is strong with Payitforward.

Ahhhh... i get it... but john better not go 3 for 15 against and score 8 points when he gets back ...because if he does...the internet will blow up...SAS’s head will and explode and gortat will post something about a “solo” defeat.

[Shanghai Kid]

John Wall closed out the Atlanta Hawks singlehandedly on the road in a game 6 playoff game with 42 points. In fact, his playoff performances last year were all around impressive. I love what Sato is doing as much as anyone but as we all know, playoff basketball is quite different. Do we win that first round series last year with this year's version of Sato? I'm not sure. Maybe? But John willed the team to the second round. That's hard to argue.

30/10 on 60% TS, probably the best 6 game stretch of his career and it happened in the playoffs.

But in truth, Sato would have swept them Hawks!

[tontoz]

Sure Wall's positives outweigh his negatives. Nobody is debating that. But the fact remains that he has a lot of negatives that really reduce his effectiveness.

Last season was his career year yet he still took over 6 shots per game from 10-22 feet while shooting 38.6%. many of those shots were without anyone else touching the ball.

http://bkref.com/tiny/GvN6p

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The problem with the Wall stuff is a lot of guys weren't capable of even playing well until this year.

Sato got plenty of run last year and was bad. Beal has only been good at basketball for two years. Kelly sucked last year. We just got Mike Scott weeks into the season. Heck, Sato wasn't even getting consistent minutes until December of this year.

The last time we had a truly "complete" team that didn't need to be dependent on John was probably 13-14 (last year Ariza played for us) and 14-15 (last year of Nene), John averaged 15.55 shots a game on average for both seasons.

My main point being we need to give John a chance to play with these guys and adapt to what's going on.

Worse case scenario is that John Wall returns and he and teammates struggle. The offseason will be eventfully interesting. Best case is Eastern Conference Finals or NBA Finals with WallStar balling.

Guys all know that they can play well

I feel optimistic!

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

[FAH1223]

Sure Wall's positives outweigh his negatives. Nobody is debating that. But the fact remains that he has a lot of negatives that really reduce his effectiveness.

Last season was his career year yet he still took over 6 shots per game from 10-22 feet while shooting 38.6%. many of those shots were without anyone else touching the ball.

http://bkref.com/tiny/GvN6p

This is why you fire Ernie and Flip in 2010

Or fire Ernie and let Witt go in 2012

COACHING matters. And getting a coach while Wall was 20-22 years old that emphasized paint points, improving the 3, defense, and moving with and without the ball would have John as not just an All-Star but one of the top players in the game. In the game!

[nate33]

So this is the same team from last year?

What about the improvements from Beal, Oubre, Mahimi, Satoransky, the addition of Mike Scott, a competent back up point guard in Frazier?

If you look at the numbers, Beal and Porter aren't better than they were last year, they're actually a bit worse efficiency-wise but they are getting more shots. And Oubre and Scott actually haven't played all that well during this 14-game Sato-at-PG stretch. I'll give you Mahinmi. He is an upgrade over 2016/17 Mahinmi or Jason Smith (though Smith wasn't all that bad last year either).

Last years team won 49 games...after starting 12-18. Thats a hell of a winning pace and a much bigger sample size then the 14 game Satoransky era. You didnt really touch on how good last years offense was. Beal and Porter both shot over 60% TS playing "Wall Ball" last year.

Fair point on sample size. It's only been 14 games. I doubt that a Sato-led team can sustain a 59-win pace for a whole season, but I'm not assuming that they will. I think 10-4 is indicative of their ability to play winning basketball overall, but I do expect some regression to a lower mean. (If we really felt that a 10-4 winning pace was sustainable indefinitely, then benching Wall and starting Sato would be a no-brainer. We're talking about a 59-win pace for a team that hasn't won 50 games in 40 years.)

And I readily cede that Wall helped Beal and Porter shoot those high percentages. But Porter got those high percentages because he was underutilized. He only got to shoot wide open shots. It's bad shot distribution for Wall to shoot 21.8 times at a .541 TS% while Porter shoots just 10.7 times at a .628 TS%. As we have seen, with Sato at the helm, more of those shots are coming from Porter and less are from the PG.

My point is that Im curious how this team with last years Wall would play. Of course that version of Wall with better defense and better shot selection would be good.

I'm curious too. I'm not actually calling for Wall to be benched. Clearly, when he comes back, he should start so we can see how things work out. I'm just saying that, as much as we wish for Wall to change and become a better defender with better shot selection, we have scant evidence to conclude that he will in fact do so. And if he maintains his old habits while continuing to shoot at those horrible early-season shooting percentages, we will become a worse team.

[payitforward]

...Its a fact that Sato is playing at a higher level then Wall did last year? Am I a Wall fanatic if I disagree with that objective fact? I think its arguable which is a testament to Sato. But I think Wall at one point won player of the month while leading us through a better winning stretch then the 10-4 Sato has.

But I do agree with the rest of your post.

Sigh...

I'm sure Wall had games, stretches, months or whatever last season, in which he played at a higher level than Sato has played these last weeks. Nor is that any kind of surprise.

What does that have to do w/ what I wrote?

[tontoz]

Wall has missed 26 games total this season. We have won 16 of them with Sato (who had minimal NBA experience) and Frazier ( a vet min player) replacing Wall's minutes.

That is a 50 win pace. I never would have thought that possible. It definitely makes me question whether Wall's negative possessions we're having a bigger impact than I realized.

[nate33]

Wall has missed 26 games total this season. We have won 16 of them with Sato (who had minimal NBA experience) and Frazier ( a vet min player) replacing Wall's minutes.

That is a 50 win pace. I never would have thought that possible. It definitely makes me question whether Wall's negative possessions we're having a bigger impact than I realized.

And to be fair, context matters. On a bad team, a guy with high positives but also a lot of wasted possessions can help because the alternatives are so bad. That's why the team was so much better with Wall on the floor prior to 2016. There was nobody else to absorb the scoring load.

But on a team with some pretty good offensive options like the current versions of Beal and Porter, plus a few more good-shooting role players like Morris, Oubre, Scott and Sato, Wall's wasted possessions are more harmful. Again, this doesn't mean the team can't be even better with Wall. But in order to do so, Wall is going to have to alter his style of play. He has the talent to do so.

[tontoz]

Scott has actually been in a slump during this recent run. He was hot as Hades when Wall was playing.

[Illmatic12]

Wall has missed 26 games total this season. We have won 16 of them with Sato (who had minimal NBA experience) and Frazier ( a vet min player) replacing Wall's minutes.

That is a 50 win pace. I never would have thought that possible. It definitely makes me question whether Wall's negative possessions we're having a bigger impact than I realized.

Why would that be surprising, now that we know John was playing hurt and struggling on one knee? The point is that he has the ability to be better than he was to start the season, as long as he comes back fully healthy and in shape.

[Shanghai Kid]

Wall has missed 26 games total this season. We have won 16 of them with Sato (who had minimal NBA experience) and Frazier ( a vet min player) replacing Wall's minutes.

That is a 50 win pace. I never would have thought that possible. It definitely makes me question whether Wall's negative possessions we're having a bigger impact than I realized.

But was that with a healthy effective Wall, or was it a Wall that was having the worst season his career since his rookie year because he was playing injured? We'll find out when he's healthy, but it was easy to see that he just wasn't effective out there. The fact that Wall was playing hurt seems to be continually ignored by some. I would expect that from the general media, but not Wizards fans specifically.

[tontoz]

Wall has missed 26 games total this season. We have won 16 of them with Sato (who had minimal NBA experience) and Frazier ( a vet min player) replacing Wall's minutes.

That is a 50 win pace. I never would have thought that possible. It definitely makes me question whether Wall's negative possessions we're having a bigger impact than I realized.

Why would that be surprising, now that we know John was playing hurt and struggling on one knee? The point is that he has the ability to be better than he was to start the season, as long as he comes back fully healthy and in shape.

His injury isn't the reason that he continues to take mid-range shots without anyone else touching the ball. His injury did stop his one man fast breaks or chase down blocks. It didn't stop him from playing hero ball late in games.

Wall's big problem is between his ears and getting healthy won't make it go away.

[Shanghai Kid]

[quote="nate33"}
And to be fair, context matters. On a bad team, a guy with high positives but also a lot of wasted possessions can help because the alternatives are so bad]do so.[/quote]

The context that Wall has been playing on a bum knee should be factored in also. It's not like he was playing great individually at the expense of the team, he's just had a lot of nights this season where he was just ineffective and not a good player.

[Shanghai Kid]

Wall has missed 26 games total this season. We have won 16 of them with Sato (who had minimal NBA experience) and Frazier ( a vet min player) replacing Wall's minutes.

That is a 50 win pace. I never would have thought that possible. It definitely makes me question whether Wall's negative possessions we're having a bigger impact than I realized.

Why would that be surprising, now that we know John was playing hurt and struggling on one knee? The point is that he has the ability to be better than he was to start the season, as long as he comes back fully healthy and in shape.

His injury isn't the reason that he continues to take mid-range shots without anyone else touching the ball. His injury did stop his one man fast breaks or chase down blocks. It didn't stop him from playing hero ball late in games.

Wall's big problem is between his ears and getting healthy won't make it go away.

It didn't stop him from leading one of the most effective starting line-ups in the league last year and a top 7 offense last year either.

I guess where we disagree is I think he needs to improve upon it, yes, but i don't see it as being as detrimental as you do. Your clearly not even a fan of last years Wall, or Wall in general, where I think he was a top 6 point guard in the league last season. We can agree do to disagree.