Luka Doncic part II

[SportsGuy8]

It's not just common sense and logic that's saying that Doncic must be fatigued, but also the eye-test. Doncic clearly had more hop to his step early in the season, while lately he's looking like he's playing wearing a weighted vest. I'm not trying to be funny, that's exactly what it looks like.

[Ruzious]

For everyone who keeps saying that fatigue shouldn't be a problem since he's a teenager: why aren't teenagers winning marathons then, or even better, endurance competitions that go on for longer periods like Tour de France? Why is it almost impossible for anyone under 24 to even be competitive, much less win?

Think about it. I know you probably won't and remain ignorant about how your own bodies work.

Yeah, I remember playing on a church team - many moons ago - of 15 and 16 year olds, and we were playing a big game (for us) against a team of mostly 30 year olds. Everyone told us we should run them out of the gym. Just say... we were in for a big surprise.

[SportsGuy8]

I think that the problem is that youthful energy often gets confused with actual endurance and conditioning. It's also not just a physical thing, a lot of it is mental. It takes extreme mental toughness to convince your body to keep going and perform close to your peak when it's getting extremely exhausted/fatigued, the type of mental toughness you cannot have as a teenager. Bball IQ is different, if someone is very smart, he's going to pick things up quickly, much quicker than his peers ... That's not the case with mental toughness.

[lavta]

Note: So this post is mainly two parts. I titled them both. First is titled as "Takeaways About Euroleague's Place in Basketball and How That Affects Perceptions About a) Luka's performance this season and b) Player translations between Euroleague and NBA" and sub-titled within the text for different topics under that main title. 2nd part is titled as "Back To Discussion About Doncic Scouting" and again sub-titled within the text for different topics under that main title. So read whatever part you wish. As I noticed my posts are too long and talk about different things when somebody could wish to look at one part but don't wanna read some other thing, so I titled different topics.

Jesus christ, please format your text dude. I'm sure it's really insightful and I'd like to read it but it's just hurting my eyes.

This is valuable feedback but I don't follow what exactly you mean. It's probably better to answer via PM to not derail the thread but do you point to problems with texts inside spoilers or something else? One thing I should have done in hindsight was to title the non-film related parts of the post in subjects so that people could have passed/read certain parts with that knowledge in mind. Will try to do that in this one, and please send a PM if there's anything else wrong.

I've viewed Euroleague/European basketball as structurally very different from NBA basketball, due to court size/rules and systemic approach/priorities. Would you say that's an accurate surface level assessment?

Yep this is a good summary and starting point. What I mostly am harsher on are garbage takes with no basis like this:

Yeah, it is pretty obvious that there are not "star" players in the EuroLeague because if someone plays really well then he goes to the NBA.

Bogdanovic and Teodosic were stars in EuroLeague and role players in the NBA. That shows you the huge difference.

Not that difficult to understand IMO. It is all about the overall talent of the players.

And this isn't garbage just because there are faulty things in evaluations or normative value of all the statements don't hold up, then I'd say I just disagree or argue against it; but it's garbage because it shows a fundamental lack of understanding about Euroleague while making big statements with regard to it.

But I just was able to read some previous posts and saw even better (or not better but more detailed) assessments from you in this topic so wanna highlight them for the never ending topic of what is and what level of play is there in Euroleague and how that translates to NBA.

Takeaways About Euroleague's Place in Basketball and How That Affects Perceptions About a) Luka's performance this season and b) Player translations between Euroleague and NBA

I think it's incredibly difficult to find players that might dominate the Euroleague. With the lack of defensive 3 seconds and incredibly physical perimeter defense allowed, a player would have to be both physically and skill/IQ dominant to be able to combat any and all coverages, while putting up insane boxscore production in limited minutes. Basically you would need an all-time great basketball player. And I think that underlines just how difficult the level of competition is.

This is basically true. The understanding of it is perfect, there are some stuff to say about the conclusion though, mostly because of history. So, there are 2 players imo that dominated the Euroleague since ULEB became the governing body of the league in 2000 over FIBA:

A Look At Only 2 Players That Dominated Euroleague since 2000 and How:

Dejan Bodiroga and 2003-05 Sarunas Jasikevicius. Bodiroga fits the description generally, physically strong, insane amount of skill, elite touch, elite ball handling, elite IQ, great BS production, all-time great player. About the last title, I think I'd put him in top 100 basketball players ever, but keep in mind I've really not thought about it all that much and have only a clear defined list of 11 players at the top, and not ranked but roughly clear group of players out to top 18. So I'm saying I think I would rank him in top 100, not saying I actually do since I don't have a defined list beyond 11 players at the moment. To me, towards the bottom of top 100 and around that level counts as all time great, so I mentioned that.

About Saras, now this is a more interesting case. There are a few hundred players better than him all-time, he didn't dominate the league outside of that 2003-05 run, and he doesn't fit the description unlike Bodiroga, who does. However Saras' impact and domination was Bill Russellian in a way that he didn't dominate the league by impact on both ends (and his defense was worse than an avg prime year Russ' offense), wasn't an all-around player, didn't have superlative box score production also unlike Russell he was physically challenged. The Bill Russellian aspect of his performance was that he was able to dominate in that time span due to being so ahead of everyone else in a particular aspect of the game and simply not just overcoming all the areas of the game he was negative at or didn't affect, but dominating despite them just because how effective he was at something. Russell's defensive performances are so ahead that it's in the tier in NBA and basketball history where it also reaches a point that it can only be replicated by him, cover the team identity and basketball strategy by itself (imagine an NBA team trying to increase the pace to tire the opponent and run in the fast break for easy points as much as possible because they sucked at halfcourt creation and wanted to play on defense as much as possible to demoralize the opponent and every point of attack defender except KC Jones wanted to channel and let ball handlers toward their defensive anchor... They won 11 titles, a strategic anomaly that doesn't make sense to any team that doesn't have Russell and no matter how transcendent their own defensive anchors might be). Same with Saras but in Euroleague. In a game where Anthony Parker might have scored 26 points with great shooting and usual defense, Saras was still easily the best player in the game with BS numbers like 9/3/7 with his usual shooting. I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but that was an usual occasion during that time. I won't prolong this longer, but to sum up, Saras' shooting threat off-the-dribble and without the ball at the time, best passing years of his career, unseen control of pace, marriage with Gershon similar to Russell-Auerbach strategically, and probably the most motivated and least partying years of his career gave us that run. An average prime Jasikevicius season was great in Euroleague too, that run was something else though, best guard peak in Europe since at least Galis if not Drazen ('87 for Galis, '86 for Drazen, less confident in Galis pick for the year although he has many footage available online, so I should sort that out for the definite some time).

So yes, it's hard to dominate Euroleague due to those reasons, but you don't have to be great at many things or have great BS production (which is even less valuable in Euroleague than NBA even in general) but looking at Russell in general and 2003-05 Saras as historical outliers among all players who dominated their respective leagues is not an idea I would argue against too.

Arguing Against If Players Cannot Dominate Because of Lack of Quality in Top End Talent

Then there's this:

I used to believe that dominating Euroleague would be harder than the NBA, but I dont think that way anymore. The main reason why no one really dominates Euroleague is because players are just not that good, and the talent level between players is way more balanced in the Euroleague all around. What I mean is that the talent gap between Euroleague star and Euroleague role player is far smaller, than the gap between NBA star and NBA role player. Thats why Euroleague's shot attempts are spread out more, where NBA is the league where we have people people averaging 20FGAs and 30 points per game. But I am certain that most players who dominate NBA would easily dominate Euroleague as well. Just looking at scoring rates Nando and Doncic are putting, it is possible to average NBA type superstar numbers in Euroleague. The main difference is minutes per game.

I will argue against the conclusion that players cannot dominate because top end talent isn't good enough to dominate. However, everything else is spot on. Gap between EL "stars" and role players being much smaller than gap between NBA stars and role players is objectively true. I would simply ignore someone who would even attempt to argue against this. Shots and minutes being more spread out for this reason is also true along with comparative talent level between players being more balanced. However conclusion is wrong, the reason people are not dominating Euroleague is not this. If this was true, you'd expect to add a borderline All-Star level players and beyond from the NBA to already "good" teams and expect them to (easily) win the championship. Then why Galis was unable to win it all in his best years with an Aris supporting cast when prime Giannakis was his backcourt partner? They made the F4 few times, they didn't win. Aris had more top end talent than any other team, Galis is a borderline All-Star at worst in a hypothetical NBA career and prime Giannakis is a starting PG in the NBA. Because all those other F4 teams had less top end talent, but a more balanced squad with at least one great player at guard/wing/big rotations each and better role players. That amounts to success in Euroleague, always had. Same with pre-injury Sabonis who wasn't able to win it with his Zalgiris rosters that was good enough to win titles against CSKA mainly due to him but didn't win anything against contemporary top Euroleague teams, pre-injury Sabas was certainly good enough, his supporting cast was good enough and had prime Kurtinaitis as the sidekick, why didn't he do it? To be fair, he lost to peak Drazen (GOAT intl perimeter peak) and Cibona in '86 in the final. But even after the injuries, while he was still a great player, it took the GOAT coach joining Real Madrid in '95 for him to win his title, didn't sniff the trophy in Real Madrid in previous two seasons. And the Deron Williams argument. I'm sure he didn't care all that much and just wanted to stay in game shape but he was what, still a top 20 player in the planet at the time? 30, to be safe?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/06/sports/basketball/nba-star-deron-williams-struggles-on-turkish-team.html

I mean, I've played in a lot of European basketball. I've played in the Olympics. But this is definitely different. The way the reffing has been going has been different to me, but I've got to adjust.

This was prime Deron.

His Eurochallenge stats: http://archive.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/player/p/pid/44573/sid/8593/tid//_/2012_EuroChallenge/index.html

Other than the 50pt game, nothing impressive. He was playing 34mins per game in 2nd (or 3rd? can't remember) tier of European basketball with 24.6/2.4/6 stats. These are basically (almost) per36 stats.

Luka has per36 of 22.8/7.8/6.4 against MUCH better competition in Europe, being a teenager. And Deron came back to NBA after his Europe stint to average 21/3.3/8.7 for the rest of the season.

So this would be my ranking of European competitions in that season:

Tier 1: Euroleague

Tier 2: ACB, then Eurocup, then VTB, then Adriatic League, then Turkish League

Tier 3: Lega Basket, then German League, then French League, then Greek League (Greek League had 2 of the best teams in Europe, but completely crappy rest of the way)

Tier 4: Russian League, then Eurochallenge where Deron Williams and Besiktas competed, then Lithuanian League

Hope I didn't forget anything. So tier 4 in Europe, 12th best competition imo. The German team Williams scored 50 on went last and relegated in the German League by far with a record of 4-30 FWIW. Besiktas also won the league, domestic cup and Eurochallenge that season after Williams and Semih Erden went back to NBA.

So, historically, the argument that lack of domination in Euroleague and Europe is due to insufficient top end talent, doesn't really add up. Instead, it's due to reasons Thespianoid explains mostly, other than the necessity of the player profile he outlined but I already explained that at length in the Jasikevicius part of the post. To win Euroleague, you need elite depth, great player(s) in all parts of the squad, effective role players, great coaching. A great player (who would be considered great in NBA level as well) doesn't really drag you there, even if they have a good supporting cast. No, you need all of those things. And that's just to win it, to dominate it, you need something else.

Some More Stuff With Regard to Player Domination in Euroleague and Doncic's Season

I'm not saying it's harder than in the NBA. It's just the most difficult of any competition level pre-NBA. That's all I'm trying to say.

Guys who dominate the NBA would easily dominate the Euroleague. The NBA is a much more difficult competition level. That shouldn't be in question.

I don't think de Colo or Doncic or Bogdanovic (last year) dominated the Euroleague. They were very good, but did they dominate? not at all. I should link the Euroleague BPM charts that Jacob Goldstein calculated, most guys have not touched the levels Doncic has this year, and can you really say Doncic has dominated Euroleague this year? I really don't think he has. He has been very good, but very erratic. And yet he is probably by far the best Euroleague player in the past...5+ years?

Every single sentence in this quote is true and things I %100 agree with. Except maybe remove the "by far" in the last sentence and then I agree %100. Think this is the best regular season performance since '12 Kirilenko but depending on how much this recent slump of his continue in these last few (very important) games, I might let that opinion go.

Anyway, the feel and/or thought there when explaining how Doncic isn't and doesn't seem to be dominating Euroleague this season, shows a much better understanding of Euroleague than many who I've known to be following Euroleague and/or Euroball for years whereas I suppose you only really watch/follow it this season for the first time and probably just the Real Madrid games + statistical looks of EL in general. Correct me if I'm wrong.

39 year old Sabonis with practically no knees left..

Euroleague stats 16.7 points,10 rebounds,2.4 assists,1 blk 26.3 PIR..On 28 minutes per game.If that's not domination i dont know what it is.The idea that players cant dominate Euroleague is laughable.As UcanUwill wrote it's just that there are no quality players able to dominate in euroleague.

That was pleasantly strange and a great season by Sabas after he looked done in his final season in Blazers but I think it's also a bit overrated. An average prime Sabas season was better imo. His rim protection was mainly gone, only some intimidation due to sheer size had stayed, post defense was still there, shot outside shots whenever he was there, but it was mainly a "What if we entered the ball to the post for the majority of the game and let Sabas create stuff" season that worked well but didn't make that team underachieve or overachieve in relation to roster strength. Quite honestly, I don't know how to evaluate that season, he was awesome but his mobility within all areas of the game that made him so effective was completely gone which was somewhat there before his NBA stint. If it was there, I'm sure they wouldn't just barely get past the first round and get eliminated clearly in Top 16. I think it was an awesome season, but his boxscore numbers allow people to overrate '04 Sabonis a bit imo. But certainly, it's strange to think he dominated Euroleague at the same time when Maccabi was obliterating it with peak Saras.

Back To Discussion About Doncic Scouting

Spoiler:

Doncic is a player that has almost always good positioning on the weakside as he has here as well. He's also a player that has inherent problems in his close-out technique, sometimes he sucks at closing out because he's exhausted and plays terrible defense all game due to near non-existent effort, but that shouldn't mask flaws in close-out technique. Here he tries, but his technique allows the dribble drive which results in Milutinov FTs. It's something a defensive anchor can fix but he needs to be elite and it's harder to fix in the NBA due to differences in defensive rules and officiating. This to me, is an accurate possession reflecting on his inherent close-out technique problems.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Another classic Doncic possession. When the defender sits on his drive 1-on-1 and gives him the shot he never beats his defender to the rim. But he's never able to pull up immediately either. He's a capable pull-up shooter and has good handles if it is accepted that his carries are not gonna be called (and in the current NBA, it won't even as a rookie) but he needs to improve his yo-yo dribble. It's bad and potentially can cause trouble against disruptive defenders. Here it does. Ideally watching some Oscar tape would be great, or actually any great ball handler from 60s and 70s because of the dribbling rules back then. Magic is also great as he fits in the height + lead ball handler role combo as well with Doncic's game. He doesn't need improvement with getting low with the dribble, as shown just above in that missed 3 against K-Pap as well, but needs vast improvement with yo-yo dribble.
Its badness not only creates a near TOV here, but also his inability in that regard causes him to not pull-up immediately in that giving space possessions and reset himself and his handles to attack in a less favorable position. And the near-TOV comes here after that reset and attacking from a less favorable position against a disruptive defender.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Not all that much related to him, this one. An example of the effect of the slightly closer 3pt line and the def. 3 seconds rule compared to NBA. Lane is more crowded, Luka finds a drive opening on the switch on Milutinov's left but Printezis is able to get there immediately and then even close out to Thompkins. This is on Thompkins as much as the closer 3pt line (admittedly not even sure 3pt line plays that much of a role in here as Thompkins stands quite further back, it may just have a very minor effect because of other 2 shooters) + def 3 secs rule because that is simply poor court positioning. That's such a bad spot to stand. All other 4 Real players have good court positioning on the court, his mistake in court placement arguably costs the possession. He needs to be much closer to the corner.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

I've talked about it a few times here, has big issues navigating through screens. A simple off-ball Printezis screen leaves him behind his defender here, but RM switches these all the time now as they did here and gets rid of the issue at least for off-ball screens. Doncic's ability to stay on bigs for the remainder of a possession with size is valuable but both teammates are less aware of these things and necessary adjustments, and also NBA coaches take more time to figure these things out and a lot of them don't care/try to/focus on making adjustments like these. This consistent adjustment is a European Xs-and-Os thing, Luka can hope to find an NBA coaching staff and teammates that are willing to make regular season adjustments like these and have good awareness of these in the NBA. But there are quite a lot of them that won't, even if he mentions it himself to coaching staff explicitly like "I suck at navigating through screens so can we switch at least off-ball ones all the time" that's just a tactical difference in Europe and the NBA.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

This looks like a handles issue that is not. At first glance it looks like that but upon a slower review, his hip and lower body doesn't generate enough power to step back after the forward momentum. Do a 90 minute lower body workout heavy on squats and then try this move on a defender after the workout immediately. Same thing will happen. The issue isn't ball handling here.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Can't speak to if anything is wrong with body mechanics here but has good lowness during the attack here. Can't pull-off that Bodiroga move as Milutinov completely sits on the pump fake and has to reset the offense back. Crowded lane doesn't do any favors him here and Milutinov's defense. But it's a negative. Had good lowness when attacking, maybe other things are wrong in his body mechanics. But definitely this is also related to inability of one-two finishes. But good perimeter defending bigs can shut him down in these possessions as long as they have the awareness against that Bodiroga move. Vesely did this against Doncic a couple times as well.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Another usual Doncic possession. Another laggy gif, sorry. Tavares' length bothers Spanoulis and forces the bad pass but this is a rotation he makes a lot. Radoncic is jailed and his man is available for the pass and the bucket, Doncic makes the rotation to get in front of him & create a TOV/force a miss as Radoncic is able to switch to Doncic's man. Tavares' length makes those things unnecessary in this possession but he creates TOVs this way not so rarely.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

This miss is interesting. The front rimming may show exhaustion and lack of power on lower body to most people. But it's actually quite knowingly done. On a previous possession you can remember how he had a TOV because of lack of power generation by lower body. And I mentioned going through a squat heavy, tough lower body workout and doing the move would cause the same for a lot of people. Basketball is an instinctual game, these kind of adjustments are usually done by players preconsciously or subconsciously not consciously. Even though the player can spot what he's done in the game tape, it doesn't happen consciously.
So I think Luka uses the split legs and that final single dribble to disallow the same situation that happened earlier, meaning losing the ball because his lower body doesn't generate enough power on the stepback after the move to the front. So there's not a radical move up and down on the stepback here, split legs and that final single dribble eases the transition but those adjustments themselves will make you make front rim the shot. Like, the adjustment is done because of lack of power generation by the lower body, but even if there was that power, if you execute this move this way exactly, you'd front rim the shot more than likely.
So the lack of power generation here is both not at all the reason and also the reason for front rimming the shot. It depends on whether you are asking the indirect reason that causes it, or the direct reason (movement) that causes it.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

This is what happens here: Doncic drives, but Printezis helps one pass away and is on his drive path. So he passes to his man. But Printezis closes out fast. One pass aways are punished more in the NBA due to a more open halfcourt game. And guys like Harden and Doncic who pass to the even slightly open shooter are rewarded more in the NBA (or current NBA at least) and punished to usually reset the offense in Europe. Which I love about European game (and older NBA game). Anyways, so they reset the offense and go to secondary PnR. Doncic attacks left this time, forces Printezis to help further, finds his man again but close-out distance is harder this time, shooter is more open and bucket.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

When I just watched the move before the shot now, I said "this won't be a front rimmer" and it turned out to be a make.
Not all that surprising because there's rhythm to the move this time, he feels the power on his lower body for the stepback.
He closes his feet together to generate power for the lateral movement first, and pulls off a successful stepback upon using the rhythm that is created by the power for the initial lateral step, his feet alignment is also better. All this makes this shot look in better rhythm. Rhythm is a reflection on power generation from lower body on shots. The reason you cannot practice shooting for 6 hours straight for example, after a certain point you don't have any rhythm in the shot and it is like playing shot put. Even on spot-ups let alone step backs, pull-ups, etc. That's not because of lack of power in your wrist or whatever, it is because lack of power on your lower body after hours of shooting practice which is one of the least intense individual practices. You're likely to fall on your stepback with no defender in sight after like 5 hours of shooting practice for example, there's not just any power left. Your rhythm on stepbacks won't be the same after two hours compared to beginning of the practice for the same reason. As it isn't the same for week 1 against Efes and week 22 against Olympiakos in a season. Luka needs to solve this. This season with no offseason might be an outlier, work on lower body might cause improvements but he needs to solve this. If it's late January and he's having the same issues in his 3rd season in the NBA, it puts a ceiling on his off-the-dribble shooting. His touch is elite anyway, he can't solve these problematic shooting slumps by shooting 2000 shots on offseason.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

This one made me go "not a front rim either" as well. Nothing to criticize for shot balance and mechanics really, just another miss. Only thing I can point out is about the shot selection. It's a perfect one for a crossover to the right as defender is in perfect position to get beaten by that and there's sufficient space for a midrange pull-up on the right. So crossover + optional single dribble to the pull-up is a better shot selection imo. However, shot clock is running out, so I can't really call out that one.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

He has to carry because he can't yo-yo dribble. He has to have issues with ball placement on top of the ball/palming.
Can't really spot it without working with him or playing together with him. His low crossover after is great though. He's probably one of 3 best Euro prospects ever, definitely the best in the last 30 years and his handles are overall good but he couldn't make a high school team in 60s with the same handles. Seriously, over the top dribble needs a lot of work.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Another example of high dribble issues. He can't beat the defender in transition to the rim not because of any athletic issues here, but because of inability to high dribble. His inability to high dribble with a tried in & out disallows him to get lowness and attack to the rim. He always gets low by getting low from a non-dribbling start or with a carry like the previous possession,
but inability of "high dribble into the getting low" limits him one-on-one quite a lot.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Again, carry allows him to get lowness out of the dribble which results in FTs. He won't get called for these carries in the NBA and doesn't get called in Euroleague either. But as exemplified above, carries don't solve every problem. Still needs to improve the high dribble.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

A non-carry lowness example. I also mentioned non-dribble starts as possessions he gains lowness. Well, a non-dribbling start here. He's low from the beginning, hang dribble isn't a carry but he's able to hang dribble because of the non-dribbling start which allows him to get low from the beginning. But again, for dribbling starts, carrying doesn't solve everything, he needs to work on high dribble. I don't wanna comment on physicality here, but I think I have to. Foul is called on Spanoulis FWIW, not Thompson's smacks. Euroleague officiating pulls out weak calls all the time, but doesn't try to protect perimeter offensive players at any costs like NBA refs do. But that's a bad thing for many Doncic fans here, because that's an argument for them as in "European officating allows physicality that NBA refs don't" while I like how it is in Europe. So don't wanna underline this as if it's bad officiating.
I like it.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

Lack of power on lower body problems again. His behind leg which is left leg, can't generate enough power to carry his momentum to the back. His left break sort of breaks under pressure, but then he crossovers to the right and gains the foul.
Remember when I talked about crossing over to the right as a criticism of shot selection on that shot with a running out shot clock?
This time he did it (shot clock is also not running out here) and even did it when his left leg broke under pressure from his momentum shift. But that lack of power on legs is still valuable to look at here, even with the drawn foul. Worth to remember he played (I think) all of the second half and this is the final minute of the game.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Spoiler:

On the final possession of the game, I don't think he falls because he slips or due to contact. His behind leg broke under pressure of his own momentum the previous possession. I think he falls because both of his legs can't carry his momentum on the spin this time, left one turns outwards where it doesn't supposed to and the right one completely stretches out probably with no power under pressure and causes the fall.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

About Doncic's close-out technique

Thanks for this scouting section, wanted to reply with some questions to get some discussion going. Tried to leave in the clips of the relevant topic areas.

On the first clip I agree with what you've mentioned, that his closeout technique is quite poor. I'm seeing how he kinda hops around lately instead of using smaller steps to get to a spot like he did last season, and by hopping into a spot it's much more difficult to change momentum/direction in an instant. Would that be an accurate reading?

Yep, sometimes hopping into close-outs work but generally taught to be forbidden and advised to use small steps when closing in on the player by coaches from the youth (don't know about US youth or anything, it's taught this way in Euro youth ball. Can't imagine it's different in US though). His hopping disallows to recover, generally even if he had great lateral quickness, he wouldn't recover there, so it's just wrong technique.

About Doncic's Insufficient High Dribble

You mention a lot about how Doncic needs considerable improvement in high dribbles. I'm not very familiar with what that is, Is that a sort of push dribble that allows a guy to get to speed from a standstill? Maintain already built up speed? And could you maybe elaborate on what improvements we might see if Luka does add a high dribble?

What I mean by high dribble is just dribbling when you're standing still or are not very low. What I mean by low dribble is similar, just dribbling ability when the player gets low (to attack). Yes, it allows to maintain already built up speed. But imo more importantly, when attacking the rim, a great high dribble allows the transition to the low dribble/lowness.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

This is a great example of this, he tries a move, but doesn't trust his dribble to get to lowness, get close to the body of the defender and try a layup and maybe draw a foul. Players like Jordan, Kawhi, Giannis have naturally big hands and don't have to be great high dribblers for this transition to happen. But anyone else needs great handles both when he's low and knees are closer to the ground, and also when he's high and knees are higher up.

He basically needs improvement at dribbling when the palm and hand is absolutely on top of the ball. Oscar and Magic are two of the best at it. Chris Paul is great at it nowadays. Having an insufficient high dribble gives you insecurity when trying to attack. You pull back yourself. Think every perimeter attack, whether it's an attack to the rim from PnR or just one-on-one, or off-screens, your body is high, knees are barely broken, you're not in position to attack at one moment. And then you suddenly take the step forward, start to get lowness. At the first position, you need your high dribble. At the second, you need your low dribble. Having an insufficient high dribble means insufficient ball control (and having large hands is enough, because guys like MJ, Kawhi, Giannis don't feel the insecurity with ball control just because they are able to palm the hell out of it, Luka obviously doesn't have hands like that), a lot of the time the reason why he dribbles dribbles dribbles, looks to be preparing for an attack and just pulls back himself for a stepback is because the insecurity with high dribble, which disallows the confidence for that transition into both high stand => lowness and high dribble => low dribble.

This can be seen in 2nd, 3rd and 8th gifs above in the quoted gifs, although there are other factors in some of them like lane being crowded so he passes, or K-Pap sits on drivepath so he has to take the jumper anyway. But inability with high dribble still is evident in them as well. And in here:

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

As I mentioned in the original post, he carries because he can't yo-yo dribble. Can you imagine him to make a hard right dribble before the crossover? I can't, he never does. He carries because he only trusts himself to go from that standing position to that lowness with the crossover with a carry, not a dribble. And carrying there is just palming for small-handed players (or not small but let's say smaller than MJ/Kawhi/Giannis level hands) essentially. MJ/Kawhi/Giannis brings the ball in their palms slowly to their right knee level for the crossover as they're getting low, Doncic carries it to bring the ball low and to his right side of the body for the crossover and to get low.

About Doncic's Lack of 1-2 Finishes

His lack of one-two finishes is a weird problem, as it seems this season especially he has preferred the motor pattern of a two foot plant before finishing at the basket. Last season he was better at getting the footwork right for at-basket finishes, but would take off too early. Not sure exactly if it's just a preference thing or if split second motor patterns can be retrained.

Yeah he was, wasn't he? I remember 1-2 finishes last season, basically none this season outside of easy open layups.

Campazzo had success against Jason Thompson who's our worst big imo (yes, Duverioglu is better) and didn't have Vesely to cover his butt due to Vesely's foul troubles all game. So Campazzo did a good job of attacking him. Here he makes the bucket because he has elite touch as I argued in an earlier post, but why he's not attacking Thompson and going for a shot that is contested by two people when he had his defender in jail is not clear to me. I mean even an attack and floater would be nice to see, let alone a 1-2 attack for a traditional layup around the rim, but he stopped and tried jumpers in these possessions all season. He made most of them, but lack of 1-2 finishes don't affect him just in these possessions. Starts at 0:50, as timestamps don't seem to work here:

Watch on YouTube

About What Doncic Does in Isolations and What Can He Improve At There

Also in isolation situations vs switches, really seems like he needs better change of pace in conjunction with fixing one-two motor patterns, you can always tell when he is going to attack maybe due to the lack of a high dribble? Like a big intake breath before exhale + aggressive drive.

I think you can tell when he's going to attack due to lack of high dribble because he either gets lowness to attack by carries or moreso, just gets lowness from the catch as he doesn't have to high dribble into a low dribble from a catch. In the only three he hit vs Olympiakos for example, which I made a gif for, that happens. Just gets lowness from the catch and low dribbles from the start for a good rhythm shot. But front rims another one vs Milutinov, because he can't get to that lowness + hop into the shot motion which causes the good rhythm shot. Of course lack of power in lower body at that point there doesn't help with front rim as well. But that happens due to having to attack off-the-dribble from the start as they (I think) switch a PnR and he was already dribbling high before the switch. I think that possession is the 8th gif in the above quoted spoilers&gifs.

I think his change of pace is good, as he does have good chance of pass when he uses carries for the transition between standing high and getting low. It's just insufficient, as he needs the high dribble. Hypothetically, if a great high dribbling ability gets implemented in his skillset tomorrow, he'd be suddenly great at change of pace when attacking imo. And of course, fixing 1-2 motor patterns can only help his isolation game. A big intake breath before exhale + aggressive drive happens in the gif that is 3rd from the last btw, the drive against Hollis Thompson that results in foul. But that can only happen off the catch. He doesn't have to dribble there already while his body is upright, look at how he prepares his lower body as he gets low before dribbling, then start with low dribble and lowness from the start already. In these possessions he can attack, and draw fouls and whatever. Off-the-catch where he gets low from the start, or carries. But a high dribble that you maintain before the attack doesn't really allow you to get a breath and adjust your body for the lowness and attack, you just need to be great at it, for it to make the transition between high dribble to the low dribble and upright position to lowness.

About How Doncic's Or Anybody's Lack of Power from Lower Body Affects His Shot

And lastly, it's good to see more confirmation that his lower body force production has regressed quite a lot, quite noticeable with how his left leg collapses twice, and that there's definite room for improvement there. I think that may be a big reason for of his declining outside shot percentages, as on some of his misses it really looks like the inconsistent base is a big contributing factor. But also seems like he's changed from a more stable wide base, simple up and down/two foot landing to something where both feet are closer together on shot prep, and lands on foot afterward?

Yeah, when you can't generate power from lower body, you try different things on the court to get some sorts of rhythm. Normally his consistent shot has a wide base yes, feet are wider apart also, but you try all sorts of things in the moment to create any rhythm so feet alignment, base, basically all the body motion except the release part becomes inconsistent in the game. He attempted a 3PA with "10 toes to the rim" as his feet alignment in that game which he never really does and attempted another where his right foot was almost as further to the front as Steph's is when Steph attempts a transition pull-up 3 (Luka's consistent outside shot motion usually has feet alignment in the middle of both techniques, and closer to 10 toes during those stop-and-fadeaway shots inside the arc like he did against Fener in the video above).

Speaking of Euroleague, Khimki-Milano and RM-Pao games are the only ones that are worth to watch for me tonight. So I started to write this after Khimki-Milano finished and RM-Pao is about to start just about now. So, have no time to proofread the post. I will share a strange annoying habit of mine when typing fast: I write "team" and "time" for each other a lot, so if there's something that doesn't make sense with those words in it, just switch it. And also couldn't sub-title the 2nd part of the post which is under the Doncic scouting discussion main title. Will do that during Pao-Real Madrid halftime.

edit: Added the sub-titles for the second part of the post in the RM-Pao halftime. Also added a note to the beginning to hopefully make it less messy.

[peZt]

Jesus christ, please format your text dude. I'm sure it's really insightful and I'd like to read it but it's just hurting my eyes.

This is valuable feedback but I don't follow what exactly you mean. It's probably better to answer via PM to not derail the thread but do you point to problems with texts inside spoilers or something else? One thing I should have done in hindsight was to title the non-film related parts of the post in subjects so that people could have passed/read certain parts with that knowledge in mind. Will try to do that in this one, and please send a PM if there's anything else wrong.

Sorry my post came of pretty rude now that I'm reading it again. I just meant putting paragraphes into your text every now and then because a super big wall of text can be pretty hard on the eyes.

[XTraderXL]

We had a debate in January about when he is going to hit the wall and that he is an injury waiting to happen. It was predictable and some of us did just that. Nothing surprising here and its not an excuse. The same thing happened to him last season, it was just a bit later in the season which is understandable as he played less games, lower usg%, lower minutes, more rest and better rotation with Llull being the star of the team. He came back better and stronger in Eurobasket and I think he same thing will happen when he comes back in couple of weeks.

This injury is a good thing for him, he will get much needed rest, he can take a few days for himself and get his mind right. In my opinion he will finish the season strong and win the EL MVP.

[peja_the_legend]

Without Doncic Real Madrid had their most convincing perfromance and win in Euroleague in a long time.Could be a case similar to Wizards and John Wall,team performing better without their supposedly best player.

[Ettorefm]

Without Doncic Real Madrid had their most convincing perfromance and win in Euroleague in a long time.Could be a case similar to Wizards and John Wall,team performing better without their supposedly best player.

And why is that, in your opinion?

Let me understand your rationale

[peja_the_legend]

the ball moved better without Doncic holding it too long just to launch some stepback 3s in the last seconds,everyone was involved and defensively there was a huge improvement as well.

[Nikson]

the ball moved better without Doncic holding it too long just to launch some stepback 3s in the last seconds,everyone was involved and defensively there was a huge improvement as well.

Didn't watch the game. Is there any possibility, as far as defence and ball movement is concerned, that Real have more players who returns after injuries and getting used to their normal minutes in those last 4-5 games, like Ayon, Randolph, Rudy... on it's roster?

Or it might be your opinion is when Dončić is in game he is holding the ball to a degree others are not involved enough and that is his main characteristic?

[Ettorefm]

the ball moved better without Doncic holding it too long just to launch some stepback 3s in the last seconds,everyone was involved and defensively there was a huge improvement as well.

If Real Madrid played 30 games with this lineup without Doncic, how many games do you think they would win?

Would it beat their record with Doncic?

How long would it take for this 'amazing new style' to wear out, teams suddenly prepare for their new style and they see themselves in need of an Alpha like Doncic back?

Wizards would get swept with Satoransky as the starter, even though they're playing great basketball without wall.

[XTraderXL]

Without Doncic Real Madrid had their most convincing perfromance and win in Euroleague in a long time.Could be a case similar to Wizards and John Wall,team performing better without their supposedly best player.

You are seriously judging their play after 1 game without Luka?
Besides, why does Doncic have by far the highest +/- on the team? If you are not familiar with +/- let me explain. It means that when Luka is in the game, the team is by far better than without him. Even with his recent slump his +/- is highest and its not close. Give it a few games, they will need Luka to come back more than you think.

[Ruzious]

The thread is continued here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1683998

[Ruzious]

The thread is continued here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1683998