2017-2018 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread Part Deux: Follow the Melo Brick Road

[spearsy23]

So, trying not to gloat here, but it's getting pretty hard (plus all you Roberson junkies were on such a high horse comparing him statistically to abrines, huestis, and ferguson).

Things I've been right about this year (that almost all you strongly opposed, almost as if you weren't fans of okc or didn't understand basketball beyond posting stats)

1) Grant would improve. He has. He was basically a rookie last year. News for you, too....hes probably not done improving. He'll cost $$$ though.

2) the team is good, top 5 in the league good. Maybe top 3, as they are better than all the teams in the east imo, as their top tier talent is a step above any of them (and cleveland is a mess beyond lebron).They were coasting early on. They know it's all about the playoffs, and are built for such. The Roberson injury stinks for depth, but they still have a punchers chance. Was clear they would turn it up after the all star break. Veteran team, elite superstar, with Paul George, Carmelo Anthony and adams by his side. If you doubted that, I feel sorry for you....its not going to get much better as a team from OKC. Kevin Durants don't grow on trees.

3) this one is so sweet. My argument all along Re: Roberson: He could be replaced by almost any competent 2 guard in the league, and that guard and the team would thrive. Cory brewer ladies and gentleman! You all would've pointed to his stats and said I was crazy if I told you he'd be more than serviceable replacement. He's been great, the teams looked great, instantly. He's thriving with the easy role of shoot open shots, and cut when your open, as I've been trying to tell you any NBA caliber 2 guard would on this team. It's such an easy spot. Also nice that he can dribble a ball too. Everyone is benefiting as I've told you they would, the floor is spaced, lanes are open, shots are easier.

Things I was wrong about: abrines didn't take a step up.

Still time for you guys to realize this team is good though. I don't think they will get that lottery ball, unfortunately. Roberson has instantly been replaced, and surpassed, by a guy who couldn't be more of an average NBA player. It's been seamless. Go thunder!

Not worth a super long response. I’ll just say that while you have some points (Grant and Abrines), I don’t for a minute share your thoughts about Roberson regardless of how good Brewer has been.

I'll give you this. Since he finally gave up on shooting 3s this year, Roberson backing up brewer would've been great to have going into the playoffs for 15 min a night. They will have to settle for the abrines/huestis/ferguson trio for spot minutes tho. I could see abrines getting hot for a playoff run.

You're confusing who would've been backing up whom

[hardenASG13]

Not worth a super long response. I’ll just say that while you have some points (Grant and Abrines), I don’t for a minute share your thoughts about Roberson regardless of how good Brewer has been.

I'll give you this. Since he finally gave up on shooting 3s this year, Roberson backing up brewer would've been great to have going into the playoffs for 15 min a night. They will have to settle for the abrines/huestis/ferguson trio for spot minutes tho. I could see abrines getting hot for a playoff run.

You're confusing who would've been backing up whom

Knowing how the thunder do things, probably. You'd have to be blind not to see that brewer, widely regarded as a below average NBA player, has seamlessly thrived in the position tho, as it's a very easy one for an NBA player, and done so instantly. It's funny, really. Playing a non shooter, and spotting him up at the 3 point line all these years for 25-30 minutes a night was really holding the team back, and making it so hard for Durant and Westbrook. This is fun to watch.

[thekaoswithin]

I'll give you this. Since he finally gave up on shooting 3s this year, Roberson backing up brewer would've been great to have going into the playoffs for 15 min a night. They will have to settle for the abrines/huestis/ferguson trio for spot minutes tho. I could see abrines getting hot for a playoff run.

You're confusing who would've been backing up whom

Knowing how the thunder do things, probably. You'd have to be blind not to see that brewer, widely regarded as a below average NBA player, has seamlessly thrived in the position tho, as it's a very easy one for an NBA player, and done so instantly. It's funny, really. Playing a non shooter, and spotting him up at the 3 point line all these years for 25-30 minutes a night was really holding the team back, and making it so hard for Durant and Westbrook. This is fun to watch.

I'm extremely happy Brewer has been working out but it's been 6 games so we should probably hold our horses...

[spearsy23]

I'll give you this. Since he finally gave up on shooting 3s this year, Roberson backing up brewer would've been great to have going into the playoffs for 15 min a night. They will have to settle for the abrines/huestis/ferguson trio for spot minutes tho. I could see abrines getting hot for a playoff run.

You're confusing who would've been backing up whom

Knowing how the thunder do things, probably. You'd have to be blind not to see that brewer, widely regarded as a below average NBA player, has seamlessly thrived in the position tho, as it's a very easy one for an NBA player, and done so instantly. It's funny, really. Playing a non shooter, and spotting him up at the 3 point line all these years for 25-30 minutes a night was really holding the team back, and making it so hard for Durant and Westbrook. This is fun to watch.

The team has a net rating of +6 with Brewer in and +10 with Roberson. Yes, Roberson is holding then back...

I swear this anti Roberson cult would put jonestown to Shame.

[getrichordie]

You're confusing who would've been backing up whom

Knowing how the thunder do things, probably. You'd have to be blind not to see that brewer, widely regarded as a below average NBA player, has seamlessly thrived in the position tho, as it's a very easy one for an NBA player, and done so instantly. It's funny, really. Playing a non shooter, and spotting him up at the 3 point line all these years for 25-30 minutes a night was really holding the team back, and making it so hard for Durant and Westbrook. This is fun to watch.

The team has a net rating of +6 with Brewer in and +10 with Roberson. Yes, Roberson is holding then back...

I swear this anti-Roberson cult would put Jonestown to shame.

I'm not anti-Roberson, but should it not be pointed out how good +6 is with how little time Brewer has played with these guys? Just from watching the games, it seems the offense has opened up a whole lot with him out there vs. when Roberson is in the lineup. If you adjust for Adams being out as well, that's pretty darn good. I just think what Brewer brings to the table definitely raises our offensive ceiling and takes a substantial amount of pressure off of Westbrook and George and even Melo.

[getrichordie]

Since Brewer became a starter, we're averaging 14.8 deflections per game, have an opp TOV% of 16.1 and average 17.1 fast break points per 100 possessions.
Up until the Roberson injury, those numbers were 19.0 deflections per game, 16.6 opp TOV% and 14.3 fast break points per 100 possessions.

The thing with Brewer tho is it's not just playing fast. Melo is shooting like 47 % from 3 since Brewer became a starter. Brewer shooting 40+ %. That is doing wonders for our offense.

I know it's way too early to tell if Brewer will keep this up, but I really don't see why he wouldn't be able to at least take advantage of easy bucket opportunities and continue to be able to handle the ball and keep the ball moving. He's streaky, sure, but I think as long as he is cutting hard, running the floor hard and making the easy pass and taking advantage of easy opportunities, he will be a serviceable 2 playing alongside these guys. As much as I love Roberson, if Brewer can show this consistently, you have to look hard at moving him (if possible) for another guy who can at least penetrate and get to the rim and make the easy pass and can also get out in transition and run hard. I think Roberson puts a huge cap on our offensive potential when he's on the floor.

[Dn4sty]

Since Brewer became a starter, we're averaging 14.8 deflections per game, have an opp TOV% of 16.1 and average 17.1 fast break points per 100 possessions.
Up until the Roberson injury, those numbers were 19.0 deflections per game, 16.6 opp TOV% and 14.3 fast break points per 100 possessions.

The thing with Brewer tho is it's not just playing fast. Melo is shooting like 47 % from 3 since Brewer became a starter. Brewer shooting 40+ %. That is doing wonders for our offense.

I know it's way too early to tell if Brewer will keep this up, but I really don't see why he wouldn't be able to at least take advantage of easy bucket opportunities and continue to be able to handle the ball and keep the ball moving. He's streaky, sure, but I think as long as he is cutting hard, running the floor hard and making the easy pass and taking advantage of easy opportunities, he will be a serviceable 2 playing alongside these guys. As much as I love Roberson, if Brewer can show this consistently, you have to look hard at moving him (if possible) for another guy who can at least penetrate and get to the rim and make the easy pass and can also get out in transition and run hard. I think Roberson puts a huge cap on our offensive potential when he's on the floor.

I think the Roberson trade stuff stems more from a concern over whether he can ever be the same player again. If he can get back to 100% then he’s a no brainer to keep. Having Brewer as a reliable backup would be huge though. Imagine if Brewer was able to sub in and guard Klay in game 6 when Dre got into foul trouble.

[getrichordie]

I know it is kind of early, but what guys would you target in free agency? Forget positional needs as we won't know much until after the draft, but what guys would you be interested in that could realistically be had at the MLE price? Are you interested in bringing back Felton? Huestis?

The guys I've been looking @ are:

Burke
Larkin
Clark
Harris
GRIII

[Pillendreher]

Can we please take a moment to understand what is actually happening on the court?

Westbrook-George-Adams + Roberson: 108.5 ORtG | 94.9 DRtG | +13.6 NetRtG on the season (583 minutes)
Westbrook-George-Adams + Roberson: 120.7 ORtG | 94.6 DRtG | +26.1 NetRtG from since 12/1 (2777 minutes; our offense started to get going in December)
Westbrook-George-Adams + Brewer: 117.7 ORtG | 109.3 DRtG | +8.4 NetRtG on the season (123 minutes)



The defensive drop off is still close to 15 points per 100 possessions! Why? Horrible opp eFG% at 56 % (league worst are the Kings at 55 %). The opp FTr is basically on the same level as with the Robes lineup; opp TO ratio is slightly worse, but would still rank first among teams league wide; and the defensive rebounding hasn't been as good (would rank average among teams). Our DRtG has gotten worse game after game since Brewer became a starter: 80.6 => 95.8 => 103.0 => 107.5 => 109.6 => 122.4. You're gonna get burned if you keep this up.
Now I'm not saying that this is Brewer's 'fault' - we gave up a bunch of points vs the Clippers because of that stupid switching in the 3rd and on that run at the end of the first quarter. And vs the Raptors, they just wouldn't quit and were making bs shots all over the floor (11/20 on pull ups overall, 4/8 on pull up 3s). It happens. But at some point you gotta put a stop to it if you're trying to win. After only giving up 9.5 3PM vs the Suns and Spurs, we're back to giving up 13 a game on 43 % shooting. That's bad.

And now on the offense: We're playing much, much faster with Brewer (in fact: Westbrook-Brewer-George-Adams would currently be the 2nd fastest 4-man-lineup behind Curry-Thompson-Durant-Green if it would qualify for enough minutes) which is good since we're getting more easier cracks at the basket (again: 2nd most fast break points per 100 possessions after 4-man-variations of the Warriors' starters) - that's important for a team that struggles in the half-court.
The main difference tho is the 3pt shot making with Brewer on the floor: Melo is shooting 50 % from 3, Russ is shooting 50 % from 3, Brewer is shooting 47 % from 3 and George is shooting 37 % from 3. All of them are close to 60 TS% with Brewer on the floor (Melo 59.3, Russ 57.0, Brewer 71.9 and George 57.3). At some point, that will stop. And before you say 'But Melo started playing really well with Roberson in December too': The stats disagree. Since 12/1, Melo was shooting 29.5 % with Russ-George-Roberson on the floor with him and 39.2 % with Roberson off the floor. Since Roberson has been off the floor for 6 weeks or so and Melo was shooting close to 30 % from 3, I'd chalk that up to variance tho.

I'm not rooting for the team to play bad. Just please stop with this reactionary nonsense trying to get your shots in. The Roberson starters were beating teams up left and right for two straight months after Melo had his talk with Donovan and Roberson started playing the 4 on offense. They didn't just play well: They were literally almost 14 points per 100 possessions better than the infamous Paul-Harden-Ariza-Capela lineup over the same stretch. That's more than twice as good over those ~8 weeks.

This team needs to be ready for the eventual drop off in shooting. Gotta shore up on that 3pt defense and to soften the offensive blow.

[hardenASG13]

Knowing how the thunder do things, probably. You'd have to be blind not to see that brewer, widely regarded as a below average NBA player, has seamlessly thrived in the position tho, as it's a very easy one for an NBA player, and done so instantly. It's funny, really. Playing a non shooter, and spotting him up at the 3 point line all these years for 25-30 minutes a night was really holding the team back, and making it so hard for Durant and Westbrook. This is fun to watch.

The team has a net rating of +6 with Brewer in and +10 with Roberson. Yes, Roberson is holding then back...

I swear this anti-Roberson cult would put Jonestown to shame.

I'm not anti-Roberson, but should it not be pointed out how good +6 is with how little time Brewer has played with these guys? Just from watching the games, it seems the offense has opened up a whole lot with him out there vs. when Roberson is in the lineup. If you adjust for Adams being out as well, that's pretty darn good. I just think what Brewer brings to the table definitely raises our offensive ceiling and takes a substantial amount of pressure off of Westbrook and George and even Melo.

Yes, did you adjust for adams being out? That game vs. Atlanta would've been a blowout had he played. He's doing this instantly, with minimal to no practice Brewer just a an average NBA skill set and can make layups, dribble, and shoot open jumpers. As a result, he's playing great, as most any NBA caliber 2 guard would, and the team has taken off.

[hardenASG13]

Can we please take a moment to understand what is actually happening on the court?

Westbrook-George-Adams + Roberson: 108.5 ORtG | 94.9 DRtG | +13.6 NetRtG on the season (583 minutes)
Westbrook-George-Adams + Roberson: 120.7 ORtG | 94.6 DRtG | +26.1 NetRtG from since 12/1 (2777 minutes; our offense started to get going in December)
Westbrook-George-Adams + Brewer: 117.7 ORtG | 109.3 DRtG | +8.4 NetRtG on the season (123 minutes)



The defensive drop off is still close to 15 points per 100 possessions! Why? Horrible opp eFG% at 56 % (league worst are the Kings at 55 %). The opp FTr is basically on the same level as with the Robes lineup; opp TO ratio is slightly worse, but would still rank first among teams league wide; and the defensive rebounding hasn't been as good (would rank average among teams). Our DRtG has gotten worse game after game since Brewer became a starter: 80.6 => 95.8 => 103.0 => 107.5 => 109.6 => 122.4. You're gonna get burned if you keep this up.
Now I'm not saying that this is Brewer's 'fault' - we gave up a bunch of points vs the Clippers because of that stupid switching in the 3rd and on that run at the end of the first quarter. And vs the Raptors, they just wouldn't quit and were making bs shots all over the floor (11/20 on pull ups overall, 4/8 on pull up 3s). It happens. But at some point you gotta put a stop to it if you're trying to win. After only giving up 9.5 3PM vs the Suns and Spurs, we're back to giving up 13 a game on 43 % shooting. That's bad.

And now on the offense: We're playing much, much faster with Brewer (in fact: Westbrook-Brewer-George-Adams would currently be the 2nd fastest 4-man-lineup behind Curry-Thompson-Durant-Green if it would qualify for enough minutes) which is good since we're getting more easier cracks at the basket (again: 2nd most fast break points per 100 possessions after 4-man-variations of the Warriors' starters) - that's important for a team that struggles in the half-court.
The main difference tho is the 3pt shot making with Brewer on the floor: Melo is shooting 50 % from 3, Russ is shooting 50 % from 3, Brewer is shooting 47 % from 3 and George is shooting 37 % from 3. All of them are close to 60 TS% with Brewer on the floor (Melo 59.3, Russ 57.0, Brewer 71.9 and George 57.3). At some point, that will stop. And before you say 'But Melo started playing really well with Roberson in December too': The stats disagree. Since 12/1, Melo was shooting 29.5 % with Russ-George-Roberson on the floor with him and 39.2 % with Roberson off the floor. Since Roberson has been off the floor for 6 weeks or so and Melo was shooting close to 30 % from 3, I'd chalk that up to variance tho.

I'm not rooting for the team to play bad. Just please stop with this reactionary nonsense trying to get your shots in. The Roberson starters were beating teams up left and right for two straight months after Melo had his talk with Donovan and Roberson started playing the 4 on offense. They didn't just play well: They were literally almost 14 points per 100 possessions better than the infamous Paul-Harden-Ariza-Capela lineup over the same stretch. That's more than twice as good over those ~8 weeks.

This team needs to be ready for the eventual drop off in shooting. Gotta shore up on that 3pt defense and to soften the offensive blow.

Wow that's a lot of stats. I know it's hard to believe that a competent 2 guard would make things easier on the stars offensively, and thrive offensively since the other teams can't focus on him, but it's true. It's what I've been trying to tell all of you, for years. His impact was immediate! He has barely played or practiced with the team. If they did this when Durant was here it wouldve been a title (still shouldve been in 2016, but thats moot).Brewer was widely considered below average for his position at this point, and you all would've/did scoff at the notion of how putting a guy like him in the starting lineup would effect the team. They literally haven't lost, and won the second of a back to back, on the road, in convincing fashion, without Adams.

Now imagine if it were like another NBA team, and you had a guy like brewer (competent 2 way guard) starting, and another one backing him up! The team would be an offensive dynamo. Fortunately, their stars are so good, I think they will be in the playoffs anyway. They are going to be a very tough out.

[hardenASG13]

You're confusing who would've been backing up whom

Knowing how the thunder do things, probably. You'd have to be blind not to see that brewer, widely regarded as a below average NBA player, has seamlessly thrived in the position tho, as it's a very easy one for an NBA player, and done so instantly. It's funny, really. Playing a non shooter, and spotting him up at the 3 point line all these years for 25-30 minutes a night was really holding the team back, and making it so hard for Durant and Westbrook. This is fun to watch.

I'm extremely happy Brewer has been working out but it's been 6 games so we should probably hold our horses...

Don't see why he would slow down, or the team. I've been saying it for years, his job is easy playing with these guys. Shoot if your open, run, drive when the opportunity is there. It's nice having a guy that can dribble at the basket, huh? This is easy for an NBA vet wing, which Brewer is. Why would it get worse? Defenses essentially can't pay much attention to him, as all 4 of the other starters require help to guard (not so much melo, but you can't help off of melo) when they have the ball. He has done this instantly! Barely any practice. It's really comical, since guys like him are and have always been readily available, yet they have stubbornly stood by the play a wing who can't shoot or dribble ideology in an era dominated by spacing the floor, collapsing the defense, and shooting. This is what it looks like.

[slick_watts]

dion waiters part II? you're going to look foolish when corey brewer stops shooting 43% from three and 90%+ from the line. even shooting this well, it's not a given that he's better than andre roberson.

this clown is still clowning.

yes, i think he's a professional clown.

[hardenASG13]

dion waiters part II? you're going to look foolish when corey brewer stops shooting 43% from three and 90%+ from the line. even shooting this well, it's not a given that he's better than andre roberson.

this clown is still clowning.

yes, i think he's a professional clown.

I understand, this success must be hard for you to watch. Resorting to name calling, shocking

[Pillendreher]

I know it's hard to believe that a competent 2 guard would make things easier on the stars offensively, and thrive offensively since the other teams can't focus on him, but it's true.

See, this is something you don't realize: Variance is part of the game, but it's not something you can rely on. Right now, the Russ-Brewer-George-Adams is at 61.6 TS%. If that were the shooting numbers for a team, that team would rank 1st in the league. We are 24th in 3P% on the season. This is not gonna last. They're shooting 44 % from 3 as a group with only one guy that has been close to 40 % individually this season: George. And he's at 37 %, so you know the great shooting is coming from somewhere else. Melo is capabable of providing shooting, but he's not a 50 % 3pt shooter. Corey Brewer is shooting 47 % from 3, basically 20 points above his career average.

Let's do a though experiment: Corey Brewer is 8/17 from 3 with the starters. Last season in the Playoffs, Andre Roberson shot 7/17 against the Rockets in the 1st round. Would you be on here praising Roberson for his shot making and that the Thunder finally got a competent shooter at the 2? No, because that goes against your agenda and is also nonsense because Roberson is a non-shooter. So why doesn't this apply to Brewer as well? He's a 31 % career 3pt shooter from the corners. He's at 54 % for us. Deep down, you know it is not gonna last. But of course you won't let an opportunity like this go to waste.

[bondom34]

Why can't we just enjoy nice things. They're playing well at the moment. Foe this I am grateful.

[Pillendreher]

Why can't we just enjoy nice things. They're playing well at the moment. Foe this I am grateful.

This is putting me in a tough spot: I'm almost banking on Brewer coming down to earth just so reality backs me up here.

------------------------------

https://deadspin.com/oklahoma-citys-wacky-corey-brewer-gambit-is-working-1823874424

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/19/17138146/oklahoma-city-thunder-contenders-western-conference-playoffs

[bondom34]

Why can't we just enjoy nice things. They're playing well at the moment. Foe this I am grateful.

This is putting me in a tough spot: I'm almost banking on Brewer coming down to earth just so reality backs me up here.

------------------------------

https://deadspin.com/oklahoma-citys-wacky-corey-brewer-gambit-is-working-1823874424

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/19/17138146/oklahoma-city-thunder-contenders-western-conference-playoffs

They've been good for the first-time in 2 months and naturally it starts making people angry.

Makes total sense.

[Pillendreher]

Why can't we just enjoy nice things. They're playing well at the moment. Foe this I am grateful.

This is putting me in a tough spot: I'm almost banking on Brewer coming down to earth just so reality backs me up here.

------------------------------

https://deadspin.com/oklahoma-citys-wacky-corey-brewer-gambit-is-working-1823874424

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/19/17138146/oklahoma-city-thunder-contenders-western-conference-playoffs

They've been good for the first-time in 2 months and naturally it starts making people angry.

Makes total sense.

I'm not angry. I just don't like baseless, agenda-driven gloating.

[bondom34]

This is putting me in a tough spot: I'm almost banking on Brewer coming down to earth just so reality backs me up here.

------------------------------

https://deadspin.com/oklahoma-citys-wacky-corey-brewer-gambit-is-working-1823874424

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/19/17138146/oklahoma-city-thunder-contenders-western-conference-playoffs

They've been good for the first-time in 2 months and naturally it starts making people angry.

Makes total sense.

I'm not angry. I just don't like baseless, agenda-driven gloating.

Kinda feels like what both sides are doing.