2017-2018 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread Part Deux: Follow the Melo Brick Road

[Andre Roberstan]

If i was Billy i would be actively trying to upset him so he doesnt opt in.

"let me actively make the most respected player on my roster unhappy with me and the organization so he doesn't come back next year, plays worse this year and I can ruin our locker room morale. this will surely work out well for me and all involved, especially in a year ownership earmarked as an all-in year"

[RalphSampsonJr]

If i was Billy i would be actively trying to upset him so he doesnt opt in.

"let me actively make the most respected player on my roster unhappy with me and the organization so he doesn't come back next year, plays worse this year and I can ruin our locker room morale. this will surely work out well for me and all involved, especially in a year ownership earmarked as an all-in year"

Does anyone truly believe the thunder are winning it all this year?

[RalphSampsonJr]

There is no way you'd kill his confidence. You'd build grants more, melo would be pissed, maybe enough so to get him to try off the ball on defense. That's not a bad thing. Hopefully melo comes on strong, but grant shoulda closed that last one.

If Melos is that insecure and players and coaches have to walk on egg shells so they dont upset him them Sam needs to get him out asap.

Its like theres all this proof that shows Melo has been terrible this year but Billy just wants to use the old “he use to be good” excuse.

Just seems like Billy doesnt have the balls to treat Melo like a role player. If i was Billy i would be actively trying to upset him so he doesnt opt in.

Billy is literally putting his job on the line by keeping Melos minutes up. I can only see two reasons for this:
1 Billys THAT dumb.
2 The org is scared of what Melo will do to the locker room so they need to keep him happy.

Neither is good. Neither will get us to the finals

Even if he truly felt that way, they are are in final stretch of a playoff race. I wouldn’t expect him to do something that potentially volatile that would benefit the team next year when they are trying to win this year.

Yea but he shouldnt have let it go on this long.
I get that there are 7 games left and the thunder need everything to be on point to even reach the post season but Billy should of been taking Melo out of close games far earlier in the season.

[Kizz Fastfists]

We all know Melo has been bad compared to who he used to be, but who is a better player on the roster right now? If you are going to use on/off and lineup data you really can't justify not playing Melo. In specific situations, i.e. on defense out of a timeout, yes you can justify it. Benching Melo in the 4th just because or taking him out of the starting lineup can not really be justified.

[bondom34]

Read on Twitter

[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

And that's why I said he should have done this months ago. How is this gonna work then if he does not want to do it now? 'Hey, Carmelo, we didn't want to play you according to your performance in the regular season, but it's game 6 of the first round, have a seat'.

[mccluskey]

Read on Twitter

And that's why I said he should have done this months ago. How is this gonna work then if he does not want to do it now? 'Hey, Carmelo, we didn't want to play you according to your performance in the regular season, but it's game 6 of the first round, have a seat'.

I hear you dude and I agree in a vacuum (that is, removing the imbalance in power between star players and inexperienced coaches) that Donovan would have been better off setting the table on this earlier in the season. But the key phrase to me in that tweet is "if Melo wasn't Melo" - well, he IS Melo, so saying "if he wasn't, then they'd do this" is just an exercise in futility.

the Thunder brought Melo in to start and have treated him like a big star from the jump - he enjoys tremendous respect from his teammates, especially Russ and PG, and he's being coached by a third year HC with very little NBA clout. A guy like Anthony has a huge ego and still has a superstar mentality and reputation around the league, no matter how deserving he is of that at this point in his career, and you have to tread carefully with him based on his past history.

Donovan wasn't going to start flexing his coaching muscle and benching him early in the season while the starters were still figuring out how to co-exist and run the risk of having a major locker room and media issue from Anthony. He did do it one time in November and then never did it again, so you have to believe there was some blowback there that the organization wasn't willing to risk going any further. I don't believe that a bigtime tinkerer like Billy would completely stop doing something like that unless there was a serious reason.

I thought trading for Melo was a bad move for OKC, but that's water under the bridge at this point. At this point his role is set and it's probably not going to change much unless his play continues to just slide off a cliff. I also think that the famous quote from that story about Donovan not defining his offensive role right off the bat is more an indication of the Thunder's approach to getting Melo to adapt ending up being a working strategy, rather than a serious coaching failure. Instead of bringing him in and having a relatively inexperienced coach telling him to change the way he's always played and fit into a complementary role that he'd never really been in before and might not be willing to accept, they pretty much just let him be regular Melo until he himself recognized that there needed to be a change and asked for guidance. Now that approach did put OKC in a hole through the first 20 games, so it definitely wasn't perfect, but I don't think it was the major blunder that a lot of people see in it.

Everyone on the outside could see what the Thunder needed from Melo from the start, but the problem is always going to be how far and fast can you push a guy who still thinks of himself as a top player in the league to change his ways from a 15-year career of always playing the same way? That's not nearly as easy as people think it should be and there is always going to be a point where the player thinks he's been pushed too far and pushes back. I think OKC has done a pretty good job, all things considered, of managing Melo and getting him to accept and adapt to his reduced role without crossing the line to having him become a problem or distraction in the locker room.

[slick_watts]

KOC is just upset his seven game carmelo anthony sample of better shot selection hasn't held up.

[slick_watts]

We all know Melo has been bad compared to who he used to be, but who is a better player on the roster right now? If you are going to use on/off and lineup data you really can't justify not playing Melo. In specific situations, i.e. on defense out of a timeout, yes you can justify it. Benching Melo in the 4th just because or taking him out of the starting lineup can not really be justified.

only because melo has dominated minutes played with the rest of the starters. adams-patterson lineups are +10pp100 this year despite playing far fewer minutes with the full starting group.

melo himself is hovering around the ts% mendoza line and is a poor defensive player. yes, it can be justified with even a slightly-more-than cursory glance at da numbaz.

[slick_watts]

some research i did for another discussion i thought i'd share here. maybe it's of interest.

thunder for the second straight season will make the playoffs despite their opponent out-shooting them during the season (eFG%). this is rare as far as playoff teams are concerned, and probably something that will need to be subverted if they want to seriously compete. note that this was also true for the team in games played through andre roberson's injury.

the sample i drew from is playoff teams from 1983-84, which is when the nba adopted the 16 team playoff format, through 2016-17.

of the 544 playoff teams during that period, 71 (13%) allowed a higher eFG% to their opponent.

of those 71 teams, 55 were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. 15 were eliminated in the second round of the playoffs. 1 was eliminated in the western conference finals (1984-85 denver nuggets).

since the hand check rule changes in 2004-05, it has been slightly less likely for teams in the sample to make the playoffs (22 of 208, 10.5%). this could also be simply attributed to more teams entering the league as time has gone on while playoff slots remaining static.

there were two notable 'dynasties' of teams that achieved this feat for many years in a row. the denver nuggets of the 80's, and the grindhouse memphis grizzlies. notable on the grizzlies is that their western conference finals appearance came in the one year they bucked the trend and out-shot their opponents. the nuggets improbably made the wcf in 1985 but were otherwise not considered contenders during their run, which was as a run-and-gun team that shot a high percentage but allowed an even higher one to their opponents. the contrast between them and the grizzlies is interesting to me.

switching up to SRS, the bare minimum in an ideal league and situation to be considered a title contender is about 3.0 SRS. that's around where the thunder are now (and a lot of other teams in the west- not an ideal league or situation). only 11 teams in the sample had an SRS 3.0 and above, with only three making it past the 1st round. a common theme among these teams is tough conferences i.e. 2015 MEM, 2010 POR and 2004 DAL. these teams had high SRS but so did lots of other west teams.

personally, i don't like this style of play, and i think it lends itself to high variance since you are relying on things like turnovers or rebounding to make up the slack. and i don't think it's reasonably possible to build a legit contender this way. the thunder either have to figure out a way to play a defensive style that is better at shot defense or run an offense that is better at making shots. the league precedent for teams structured that wins the way we do is not kind when it comes to title aspirations.

[ThunderBolt]

the thunder either have to figure out a way to play a defensive style that is better at shot defense or run an offense that is better at making shots.

Weren’t they doing the former before Dre’s injury?

[slick_watts]

the thunder either have to figure out a way to play a defensive style that is better at shot defense or run an offense that is better at making shots.

Weren’t they doing the former before Dre’s injury?

not really, and i mentioned that in the post. the disparity is a little bit larger since his injury, but the bigger problem has been the lower opponent TOV%, which was nuts with andre roberson healthy and was what kept the defense working. very similar to the grizzlies teams. but this style is high variance by its own nature imo, and unreliable.

[ThunderBolt]

the thunder either have to figure out a way to play a defensive style that is better at shot defense or run an offense that is better at making shots.

Weren’t they doing the former before Dre’s injury?

not really, and i mentioned that in the post. the disparity is a little bit larger since his injury, but the bigger problem has been the lower opponent TOV%, which was nuts with andre roberson healthy and was what kept the defense working. very similar to the grizzlies teams. but this style is high variance by its own nature imo, and unreliable.

What you’re saying makes sense but the solution goes back to a basic debate of where the blame lies. Is it Donovan? Presti’s construction of the roster? Westbrook’s high usage with inconsistent shooting? Playing an old school center in a small ball world along with a point guard that’s not a great shooter, then adding players like roberson and grant so the totality of the issue can’t be overcome despite good individual pieces? Just replace Melo with a better piece?

[slick_watts]

Weren’t they doing the former before Dre’s injury?

not really, and i mentioned that in the post. the disparity is a little bit larger since his injury, but the bigger problem has been the lower opponent TOV%, which was nuts with andre roberson healthy and was what kept the defense working. very similar to the grizzlies teams. but this style is high variance by its own nature imo, and unreliable.

What you’re saying makes sense but the solution goes back to a basic debate of where the blame lies. Is it Donovan? Presti’s construction of the roster? Westbrook’s high usage with inconsistent shooting? Playing an old school center in a small ball world along with a point guard that’s not a great shooter, then adding players like roberson and grant so the totality of the issue can’t be overcome despite good individual pieces? Just replace Melo with a better piece?

mostly roster construction imo.

[Pillendreher]

This is where the Roberson-George-Adams 3-man-lineup (591 minutes) would rank among teams with its defensive four factor stats:

opp eFG%: 50.4 % | 4th on a team level
opp FTr: 0.200 | 1st on a team level
opp TOV%: 19.5 | 1st on a team level
opp ORB%: 17.9 | 1st on a team level

And they were outshooting their opponent with an eFG% of 52.7 %. So I'd say that they were not just relying on turnovers.

This is individual On/Off for eFG% and opp eFG% up until the Roberson injury. And, you might have guessed it, Johs Huestis again kills everybody:



I think offensively, the lack of reliable 3pt shooting really hurts. And defensively, we're not exactly scheming towards tough shot defense.

[slick_watts]

obviously, pille, if the thunder could play their andre roberson starters 48 minutes per game with zero fatigue, they would out shoot their opponents. so would a lot of teams.

on a team level, we absolutely rely on turnovers. if you only focus on the parts of the team that don't rely on turnovers, then the team (no surprise) does not rely on turnovers.

[RalphSampsonJr]

not really, and i mentioned that in the post. the disparity is a little bit larger since his injury, but the bigger problem has been the lower opponent TOV%, which was nuts with andre roberson healthy and was what kept the defense working. very similar to the grizzlies teams. but this style is high variance by its own nature imo, and unreliable.

What you’re saying makes sense but the solution goes back to a basic debate of where the blame lies. Is it Donovan? Presti’s construction of the roster? Westbrook’s high usage with inconsistent shooting? Playing an old school center in a small ball world along with a point guard that’s not a great shooter, then adding players like roberson and grant so the totality of the issue can’t be overcome despite good individual pieces? Just replace Melo with a better piece?

mostly roster construction imo.

I think Billy should be the focal point.
Even with KD there was never a system. It was get Russ or KD to run the point, create some interest and have 3 other guys know their small role.

Now even with three “stars” its very clear the coaching system is flawed. Teams like indy and the jazz seem to be doing well just by moving the ball and playing solid D (more jazzs case) while we play this predictable style that hasnt worked.

If Russ played like this last year the thunder would struggle to get to 40 wins. Billy was lucky Russ played out of his mind.

KD left after a year of Billy because he didnt like playing for him. Said so on his burner account.

[ThunderBolt]

What you’re saying makes sense but the solution goes back to a basic debate of where the blame lies. Is it Donovan? Presti’s construction of the roster? Westbrook’s high usage with inconsistent shooting? Playing an old school center in a small ball world along with a point guard that’s not a great shooter, then adding players like roberson and grant so the totality of the issue can’t be overcome despite good individual pieces? Just replace Melo with a better piece?

mostly roster construction imo.

I think Billy should be the focal point.
Even with KD there was never a system. It was get Russ or KD to run the point, create some interest and have 3 other guys know their small role.

Now even with three “stars” its very clear the coaching system is flawed. Teams like indy and the jazz seem to be doing well just by moving the ball and playing solid D (more jazzs case) while we play this predictable style that hasnt worked.

If Russ played like this last year the thunder would struggle to get to 40 wins. Billy was lucky Russ played out of his mind.

KD left after a year of Billy because he didnt like playing for him. Said so on his burner account.

Devils advocate says, who hired billy and why? Presti could have brought in a guy that would have demanded more from his stars but if it backfires, then the issues get worse. IMO, the key is having the right guy in place before the young guys become stars. After that, it’s likely too late.

[Pillendreher]

obviously, pille, if the thunder could play their andre roberson starters 48 minutes per game with zero fatigue, they would out shoot their opponents. so would a lot of teams.

on a team level, we absolutely rely on turnovers. if you only focus on the parts of the team that don't rely on turnovers, then the team (no surprise) does not rely on turnovers.

The weird thing about them is that they have so many lineups that are completely horrible at just one thing. The bench would rank above average in shot defense, not sending teams to the line and forcing turnovers, but they'd be dead last in keeping opponents off the boards. There are non-Roberson starter lineups that can't defend shots, some lineups can't force steals, etc. The team is 17th in opp eFG%, 16th in opp FTr, 16th in opp ORB% and 1st in opp TOV%. So in the end, I guess I'm with you Just wanted to point tout that our 'main defense' was doing more than just forcing turnovers.

[mccluskey]

What you’re saying makes sense but the solution goes back to a basic debate of where the blame lies. Is it Donovan? Presti’s construction of the roster? Westbrook’s high usage with inconsistent shooting? Playing an old school center in a small ball world along with a point guard that’s not a great shooter, then adding players like roberson and grant so the totality of the issue can’t be overcome despite good individual pieces? Just replace Melo with a better piece?

mostly roster construction imo.

I think Billy should be the focal point.
Even with KD there was never a system. It was get Russ or KD to run the point, create some interest and have 3 other guys know their small role.

Now even with three “stars” its very clear the coaching system is flawed. Teams like indy and the jazz seem to be doing well just by moving the ball and playing solid D (more jazzs case) while we play this predictable style that hasnt worked.

If Russ played like this last year the thunder would struggle to get to 40 wins. Billy was lucky Russ played out of his mind.

KD left after a year of Billy because he didnt like playing for him. Said so on his burner account.

I don't know if Billy has what it takes to be a good pro coach, but it would take a really special guy to be able to run a ball movement offense around Russ and Carmelo (and to a lesser extent George).