snaquille oatmeal wrote:what is the cap situation for Houston to get Lebron?
The Rockets only "advantage" in getting Lebron cap wise is the fact that CP3 opted in for his contract (which is curious to say the least if you're a believer of players planning where they'll go ahead of time).
Even if you're talking about major discounts, getting Lebron pretty much means Capella is gone, and Anderson/Gordon would have to be traded, and Ariza won't be resigned.
The Rockets have Harden making 30m next year, with PJ Tucker and Nene on long term contracts that realistically can't be dumped without assets, making 10m combined.
So you have 40 million contracts that you realistically can't get rid of for 3 players. You also have 2 more players under contracts in some form of rookie deals, totally 3 million. That's 43 million for 5 players. Minimum Cap Holds would equal around 6 million for the 7 players they are short of.
So you have 49 million, leaving around 54 million for Lebron AND CP3
if they trade Anderson and Gordon without any contracts coming back. Now, would Lebron and CP3 take paycuts to play together (and with Harden obviously), possibly.......Would they take around $13 million annual paycuts each? Even if by some miracle they can trade all four of the none harden players they would have contract in addition to Gordon and Anderson, you're still only talking 8 million a year discounts for both Lebron and CP3.
So basically you are talking about a salary dump for Gordon and Anderson and HUGE discounts needed from LBJ and CP3.
Eric Gordon is a very solid player on a reasonable contract 12-13M for two more years after this. Ryan Anderson is a mediocre player on a terrible contract. 20-21 million.
There are 9 teams that can absorb either one of their contracts with capspace next year, going off projected capspace for this summer. These teams are:
Lakers
Hawks
Nets -Can only absorb Gordon
Bulls-(they realistically can only absorb Gordon....and even then they would have to send a million or two to the 76ers)
Mavs
Magic
kings
Philly
Suns
Lets go over these teams one by one:
The Lakers would not help the Rockets in any case. They also wouldn't waste valuable cap space on either of those players, as they don't fit the 2018 cap plan or the 2019 cap plan. The Rockets realistically don't have enough assets to work a trade out with the lakers. NEXT
The Bulls- A rebuilding team. Can't take on Anderson. Could take on Gordon, but he doesn't fit their timeline. They wouldn't take Gordon on for free.....maybe they would with assets.
The Haawks- See Bulls, but they can take either of them, but again certainly not for free.......They wouldn't even take on Gordon for free imo.
Suns- Same except they can't take on Anderson, and have their best prospect/player playing Gordon's position.
Kings- See Hawks, but they are stupider. They might take on Gordon for free even though he doesn't fit their timeline. Won't touch Anderson without major assets though.
Magaic- See Kings, but they can only take on Gordon
Nets- A possible trade partner for them for taking on Gordon for free....can't take on Anderson.
Mavs- A possible trade partner for them taking on Gordon for free.....can't see them taking on Anderson unless major assets are attached.
Philly- A team trying to actually sign Lebron and compete in free agency. Has it's own free agents like Redick to sign. Even if they are willing to help the Rockets get Lebron, they certainly have no need for Anderson or any of the minor assets that would be coming along with him as incentive. If they aren't prideful,they would take Gordon for free easily.
So there you have it. Even if you convince to Lebron and CP3 to take HUUUUUGE paycuts, your trade market to dump players is looking weak at best, and borderline impossible at worst. But let's say the Rockets get lucky and get some cooperation from other teams. They find a suiter for Gordon, taking him on for free....it's something that could reasonably happen relatively easily. THEN you address the Anderson problem. You have 4 teams that have the capspace to absorb him without giving you anything back, one of them being the Lakers.So you realistically have 3 teams that are possible trade partners for Ryan Anderson, and that's assuming that one of these teams isn't the one who absorbed Gordon.
These three teams are the mavs, Kings, and Hawks.
So let's say you convince one of these teams who either plan on tanking, have a decent young prospect at the 4, or are pursuing other agents to absorb anderson. None of these teams are taking him on for free. They want assets, picks, etc. The Rockets have no young prosopects with trade value. They also don't have their own first round pick this year.
Here is the catch: Any team willing to take on Anderson surely knows that the Rockets are only trading him to build a super team. Their first round picks available for trade, 2019 and 2021, have minimal trade value. One pick surely won't cut it. Basically, the Rockets would have to give a Nets/Celtics type 3 unprotected first round pick type deal to have anyone take on Anderson.
Now, if all that isn't enough, here are some two more factors making the Rockets a none threat in Free Agency from the perspective of the Lakers:
1. While Anderson is more servicible than Deng at this point, he is set to make 7 more millions than him in the next two years. Simply put, for a rebuilding team, he has Deng like value. Any deal that the Rockets can make to dump Anderson, the Lakers can easily top as incnetive for a team to take on Deng .....Rockets offer 2 unprotected firsts? Lakers offer 2 unprotected firsts and the Cavs pick. Rockets some how offer 3 unprotected firsts? Lakers still have Hart, Zubac, Bryant, and god forbid Kuzma to add. Simply put, if a bad team is taking on a crap contract with assets attached, they Lakers are the favorites to Dump Deng before the Rockets can dump Anderson.
2. So you might say....well, what if Lebron and CP3 really want to play together and are willing to take 13 million annual discounts each. My counter is this: If they are that willing to play together, to the level of taking that dramatic level of discounts, why wouldn't they just come to the Lakers? The Lakers are projected to have 70 million in capspace this summer, with the potential to go up to 81m if we trade Deng instead of stretching him...somethign I already said we are more likely to do than the Rockets are likely to dump anderson. A 13m each discount taking Lebron/CP3 Duo would leave enough cap for us to Max out PG13. Yeah...the Rockets have Harden, but they literally have no one else even in the best case scenario. The Lakers would still PG13, IPngram, Lonzo in this scenario, and possibly some combo of Zu, Hart, Bryant and Kuz. Please don't get me wrong, I'm not in any way saying we have a shot of signing CP3, Lebron and PG13 all together, because simply put
Lebron and CP3 won't take discounts like that, but if any crazy scenario they actually are willing to do that, the Lakers arguably create a better situation for them to do that.
So basically......The Rockets have the slimmest of slim chances to sign Lebron in free agency. I would put it less than 1%. If Lebron is leaving Cleveland in free agency, he's going to LA or Philly. Period. No where else has a chance. No where else is even an option. But that doesn't mean I'm saying Lebron has no chance of going to the Rockets...the only realistic scenario for the Rockets to get Lebron is through a sign and trade.
A sign and trade is far more likely than a free agency signing. This is how they got CP3 after all...they had no reasonable means of getting him through FA but they worked out a sign and trade. The problem with a sign and trade is that they need Clevelands Cooperation....which means Dan Gilbert's cooperation. That said, Gilbert already did sign and trade Lebron once....he traded him to Miami, for a couple of late picks IIRC....because it's better to get something for him than nothing.
But the rules have changed since, and S&T's are far less easy to pull off, as salary needs to be sent back....basically the Cavs would have to take on Anderson and picks to do a S&T with the Rockets.......Would you rather lose Lebron for nothing or get Anderson's crap contract and some late picks if you are the Cavs? I'm not sure....I don't think it's likely, but it's far more likely than all the above having to happen for them to sign Lebron.
TLDR is: imo, Lebron is staying in CLE if and only if they win this year, which is not impossible especially considering Curry's Injury.
IF lebron leaves via free agency, he has only two realistic options...the Lakers and the Sixers. IF lebron goes to the Rockets, it's going to be through a S & T, an option only possible with Clevelands cooperation, with them having little incentives to do so considering the fact that they would have to take on Anderson's contract.
