Bucks Keep 2018 Pick

[DingleJerry]

Seems like the "give up the pick" camp is built upon one or more of the following: 1) don't give our idiot franchise a draft pick to use on the wrong player, or; 2) We'll pick higher if we draft in a later year than now.

Neither of those two seem sound. We aren't changing the GM before the bucks use the pick, regardless of whether it's this year or next or the next. IMO, the team has under-performed this year and I wouldn't bet on a worse record next year.

Am I missing something?

The increased flexibility moving the pick now creates going forward so it's not hanging over them and hampering trades. And just that there is a legit chance the pick is higher next year (or whenever it goes), can't just put your head in the sand and act like it's not a possibility for any number of reasons.

[DrWood]

Seems like the "give up the pick" camp is built upon one or more of the following: 1) don't give our idiot franchise a draft pick to use on the wrong player, or; 2) We'll pick higher if we draft in a later year than now.

Neither of those two seem sound. We aren't changing the GM before the bucks use the pick, regardless of whether it's this year or next or the next. IMO, the team has under-performed this year and I wouldn't bet on a worse record next year.

Am I missing something?

Yes. Give up the pick this year to open up flexibility sooner in trading first round picks.

That sounds like a variation on #1--take away this year's pick and as many more in the future as possible.

[DrWood]

Seems like the "give up the pick" camp is built upon one or more of the following: 1) don't give our idiot franchise a draft pick to use on the wrong player, or; 2) We'll pick higher if we draft in a later year than now.

Neither of those two seem sound. We aren't changing the GM before the bucks use the pick, regardless of whether it's this year or next or the next. IMO, the team has under-performed this year and I wouldn't bet on a worse record next year.

Am I missing something?

The increased flexibility moving the pick now creates going forward so it's not hanging over them and hampering trades. And just that there is a legit chance the pick is higher next year (or whenever it goes), can't just put your head in the sand and act like it's not a possibility for any number of reasons.

I think there's a higher chance our pick will be 20th or later next year than 10th or earlier. It's not putting head in sand, it's realizing this team should have more wins than they do.

[Ron Swanson]

Sure, we can go down the "worst case scenario" rabbit hole until our heads spin. We could re-hire Jason Kidd. Giannis could have his leg amputated tomorrow. It's all about likelihood. We've gone from 33, to 42, to now 44-45 wins the last 3 years since Giannis ascended to superstar status. And that's with garbage coaching holding the roster back all those years.

Get the pick, trade it for a 2019 or 2020 pick if we're that worried about not having a first in the future. Better yet, shop Bledsoe or Middleton for a lottery pick. Clippers (13 & 14), Charlotte (11th), Cleveland (9th) are likely teams that aren't settling on a full rebuild quite yet. Go into this draft armed with multiple firsts for the first time in decades.

[DingleJerry]

Seems like the "give up the pick" camp is built upon one or more of the following: 1) don't give our idiot franchise a draft pick to use on the wrong player, or; 2) We'll pick higher if we draft in a later year than now.

Neither of those two seem sound. We aren't changing the GM before the bucks use the pick, regardless of whether it's this year or next or the next. IMO, the team has under-performed this year and I wouldn't bet on a worse record next year.

Am I missing something?

The increased flexibility moving the pick now creates going forward so it's not hanging over them and hampering trades. And just that there is a legit chance the pick is higher next year (or whenever it goes), can't just put your head in the sand and act like it's not a possibility for any number of reasons.

I think there's a higher chance our pick will be 20th or later next year than 10th or earlier. It's not putting head in sand, it's realizing this team should have more wins than they do.

I didn't say what's most likely, I said that is a possibility and has to be factored in. You can try to predict all you want, there is a statistically relevant percent change that it ends up higher. It's part of the calculation. Then keep in mind that it could get kicked down another year, then another year. Good luck predicting the NBA 2-3 years from now. Those factors are in the calculation, can't ignore it.

[DrWood]

The increased flexibility moving the pick now creates going forward so it's not hanging over them and hampering trades. And just that there is a legit chance the pick is higher next year (or whenever it goes), can't just put your head in the sand and act like it's not a possibility for any number of reasons.

I think there's a higher chance our pick will be 20th or later next year than 10th or earlier. It's not putting head in sand, it's realizing this team should have more wins than they do.

I didn't say what's most likely, I said that is a possibility and has to be factored in. You can try to predict all you want, there is a statistically relevant percent change that it ends up higher. It's part of the calculation. Then keep in mind that it could get kicked down another year, then another year. Good luck predicting the NBA 2-3 years from now. Those factors are in the calculation, can't ignore it.

There is an inherently higher value of a pick now compared to the same pick (16th, whatever) in a year or more. I don't think anyone's mentioned that.

[Ruzious]

Sure, we can go down the "worst case scenario" rabbit hole until our heads spin. We could re-hire Jason Kidd. Giannis could have his leg amputated tomorrow. It's all about likelihood. We've gone from 33, to 42, to now 44-45 wins the last 3 years since Giannis ascended to superstar status. And that's with garbage coaching holding the roster back all those years.

Get the pick, trade it for a 2019 or 2020 pick if we're that worried about not having a first in the future. Better yet, shop Bledsoe or Middleton for a lottery pick. Clippers (13 & 14), Charlotte (11th), Cleveland (9th) are likely teams that aren't settling on a full rebuild quite yet. Go into this draft armed with multiple firsts for the first time in decades.

Right, if you really would prefer to have a 2019 pick, use the 2018 pick, and then trade the player you picked for a 2019 pick - or trade the player for something else - in a package or whatever. You could even pre-arrange a package of the player with the 2019 pick for someone picked earlier in the draft - as long as you commensate that trade after the draft. The rule is you can't trade your next 2 future picks, and there's even a way out of that - if you acquire someone else's first rounder.

[emunney]

A pick's a pick, but a future pick could be anything! It could even be a pick!

[Diggr14]

get rid of it now while you can control its worth. Just in case things go sideways, you dont want to be conveying a lottery pick down the road when you could give up #16 now.

[midranger]

Bucks looking like a team unlikely to slip to the lottery next year. Probably jumping into the top 5 and will be giving up the 26th pick next year. Unless you're betting on Giannis getting hurt.

[Lippo]

Lol, just a thought, can we forfeit the coin flip, give Miami 16 and keep 17?

[Pachinko_]

List of #16 and #17 picks in the last 10 years:

Sean Williams, Nick Young, Roy Hibbert, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday, James Johnson, Kevin Seraphin, Luke Babbitt, Iman Shumpert, Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Zeller, Royce White, Dennis Schroder, Lucas Nogueira, James Young, Jusuf Nurkic, Rashad Vaughn, Terry Rozier, Wade Baldwin, Guerschon Yabusele, D.J. Wilson, Justin Patton

At least a third of these guys would be useful to this team at their peak. And most of them were late bloomers, so I wouldn't expect much from this pick for at least 2 or 3 years.

[Baddy Chuck]

List of #16 and #17 picks in the last 10 years:

Sean Williams, Nick Young, Roy Hibbert, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday, James Johnson, Kevin Seraphin, Luke Babbitt, Iman Shumpert, Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Zeller, Royce White, Dennis Schroder, Lucas Nogueira, James Young, Jusuf Nurkic, Rashad Vaughn, Terry Rozier, Wade Baldwin, Guerschon Yabusele, D.J. Wilson, Justin Patton

At least a third of these guys would be useful to this team at their peak. And most of them were late bloomers, so I wouldn't expect much from this pick for at least 2 or 3 years.

We have two or three years.

[RiotPunch]

List of #16 and #17 picks in the last 10 years:

Sean Williams, Nick Young, Roy Hibbert, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday, James Johnson, Kevin Seraphin, Luke Babbitt, Iman Shumpert, Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Zeller, Royce White, Dennis Schroder, Lucas Nogueira, James Young, Jusuf Nurkic, Rashad Vaughn, Terry Rozier, Wade Baldwin, Guerschon Yabusele, D.J. Wilson, Justin Patton

At least a third of these guys would be useful to this team at their peak. And most of them were late bloomers, so I wouldn't expect much from this pick for at least 2 or 3 years.

We have two or three years.

Three to be exact.

[Pachinko_]

Man how good would it be if we somehow landed a Nurkic or a James Johnson.

[jayu70]

So, do you guys get to keep the pick or does it go to Phoenix?

[Buck You]

Ah how the world turns. We won Kareem on a coin flip and now we try it again!

[jschligs]

When is the coin flip?

[Siefer]

Emunney sold me on the importance of this years pick. Bombing on our last three picks may have helped encourage the mindset that mid-round firsts aren't as valuable as they are. Portis, Sabonis, and Anunoby were all guys on the radar here before their respective drafts, and every single one of them would be making a positive impact in the rotation right now. Mid/late first are still valuable, and they're one of the only tools we have left to fix this thing. We just don't have much time to get our **** together.

[Pachinko_]

Maybe we can package somebody to move up to the draft?