WCQF: P1 | (4) OKC Thunder vs Utah Jazz (5) | Utah wins 4-2

[wassuphomeboy]

To me, this should be the most fascinating 1st round series this year.

This series will be a treat for old-school NBA fans. As we all know, the NBA's style of play has trended towards pace and space recently, but this series should be an old-fashioned slugfest. There will be few easy buckets, half-court execution will be key, and every possession will be critical. It will be interesting to see whether OKC's three All-Stars known for their isolation scoring will be able to overcome Utah's stout team defense.

[mowcrowbar]

If George can show up at least half the amount he did against Toronto in the playoffs, they should be a win for OKC. I expect Carmelo to lay a big fat egg, no expectations for him whatsoever.

[jjscap]

I think UTA wanted #5 instead of #3 because they play better on the road and more importantly they did not want to be seen as favorites which would put tons of pressure on their young inexperienced team. Now they're underdogs.

OKC's advantages: tons of offensive firepower, three stars, great homecourt/fans
UTA's advantages: better/smarter team-play, better defense, better coaching, less pressure

OKC's disadvantages: No Roberson, inferior bench, not great chemisty
UTA's disadvantages: lack of playoff experience (Rubio and DM's first series), limited offense

Home record 28 - 13
away record 20 - 21



I feel as though the eye test isn't always right

UTA is a top-3 road team now. Those raw stats are misleading.
launches ESPN.com, checks the road record, says "Haha they're so bad on the road".
Eye problem or brain problem?

[anish23]

I think UTA wanted #5 instead of #3 because they play better on the road and more importantly they did not want to be seen as favorites which would put tons of pressure on their young inexperienced team. Now they're underdogs.

OKC's advantages: tons of offensive firepower, three stars, great homecourt/fans
UTA's advantages: better/smarter team-play, better defense, better coaching, less pressure

OKC's disadvantages: No Roberson, inferior bench, not great chemisty
UTA's disadvantages: lack of playoff experience (Rubio and DM's first series), limited offense

Home record 28 - 13
away record 20 - 21



I feel as though the eye test isn't always right

UTA is a top-3 road team now. Those raw stats are misleading.
launches ESPN, checks road record.. says "Haha they're so bad on the road".
Eye problem or brain problem?

Either way, I don't think they WANTED TO PLAY ON THE ROAD mate.

cmon now, be realistic.

[Cappy_Smurf]

I think UTA wanted #5 instead of #3 because they play better on the road and more importantly they did not want to be seen as favorites which would put tons of pressure on their young inexperienced team.

Home record 28 - 13
away record 20 - 21



I feel as though the eye test isn't always right

6 people and1ed this post.

I'm a little surprsied that many people are so ill-informed. Utah lost almost all their road games the first half of the season with Gobert missing the majority of those games.

Meanwhile, they have won, I believe 15 of their last 16 road games, and the one loss was an overtime barn burner against the spurs.

Utah has been a beast on the road, so if you're going to post season records, at least try and put them into context.

[jjscap]

Home record 28 - 13
away record 20 - 21



I feel as though the eye test isn't always right

UTA is a top-3 road team now. Those raw stats are misleading.
launches ESPN, checks road record.. says "Haha they're so bad on the road".
Eye problem or brain problem?

Either way, I don't think they WANTED TO PLAY ON THE ROAD mate.

cmon now, be realistic.

It's debatable whether they wanted that. What's not debatable is UTA's road dominance, lazy fools need to be reminded.

Since you mentioned let me explain why #5 actually makes sense. Finish #3 and you're favorites. If you lose you fail. That'd put a lot of pressure on their young inexperienced squad. Rubio played 0 minutes. Our leading scorer is a rookie ffs. Isn't being an underdog better considering how the Jazz are playing on the road and the less pressure it brings? I'd say it's pretty realistic.
Besides watch what Quin Snyder said before POR game and think about why he pulled his starters off early vs POR which is very unusual of him.

[lambchop]

UTA is a top-3 road team now. Those raw stats are misleading.
launches ESPN, checks road record.. says "Haha they're so bad on the road".
Eye problem or brain problem?

Either way, I don't think they WANTED TO PLAY ON THE ROAD mate.

cmon now, be realistic.

It's debatable whether they wanted that. What's not debatable is UTA's road dominance, lazy fools need to be reminded.

Since you mentioned let me explain why #5 actually makes sense. Finish #3 and you're favorites. If you lose you fail. That'd put a lot of pressure on their young inexperienced squad. Rubio played 0 minutes. Our leading scorer is a rookie ffs. Isn't being an underdog better considering how the Jazz are playing on the road and the less pressure it brings? I'd say it's pretty realistic.
Besides watch what Quin Snyder said before POR game and think about why he pulled his starters off early vs POR which is very unusual of him.

this assessment lacks context too mate. In a conference where 2 wins separate the 3rd and 8th seed, how is the 3rd seed supposed to be favored? Let's say Utah finished 3rd and OKC finishes 6th, but OKC wins, is mitchell now considered a choke artist? Are the jazz then underachievers and get destroyed by fans and skip bayless?

Jazz, wolves and spurs are the teams with the least amount of pressure. Anthony Davis is under pressure to at least get his first playoff win, Russ has to prove he can get past the 1st round without KD and with a legit star in PG, HOU for obvious reasons and KD is also expected to have some success with 2 all-stars on his team.

And portland...are they really favorties against NOLA just cause theyre 3rd? Both teams have small but good players at PG / SG (POR better of course), both lack prolific wings, Davis is better than Nurkic.

[anish23]

UTA is a top-3 road team now. Those raw stats are misleading.
launches ESPN, checks road record.. says "Haha they're so bad on the road".
Eye problem or brain problem?

Either way, I don't think they WANTED TO PLAY ON THE ROAD mate.

cmon now, be realistic.

It's debatable whether they wanted that. What's not debatable is UTA's road dominance, lazy fools need to be reminded.

Since you mentioned let me explain why #5 actually makes sense. Finish #3 and you're favorites. If you lose you fail. That'd put a lot of pressure on their young inexperienced squad. Rubio played 0 minutes. Our leading scorer is a rookie ffs. Isn't being an underdog better considering how the Jazz are playing on the road and the less pressure it brings? I'd say it's pretty realistic.
Besides watch what Quin Snyder said before POR game and think about why he pulled his starters off early vs POR which is very unusual of him.

I'm gonna stop saying anything anymore. Obviously I wish you were correct, but you are not. Just hope the Jazz win. Have a good day... and until then here is a vid for you. Reminds me a lot of this "argument" we are having.

GO JAZZ!

Watch on YouTube

[Pillendreher]

OKC have way more proven playoff players than the Jazz. Gotta go with them, but regardless, going to be a good series.

My thoughts exactly. I honestly do not think the Jazz have enough scoring. Both teams will defend the spit out of each other, so @ the end of the day, it comes down to better offense and I think the Thunder just have a higher ceiling on that end of the floor. Westbrook, George, and Anthony finally figure it out and ride that sense of urgency to victory over the Utah Jazz.

The Thuner are not a good defensive team. The Jazz are elite on that end. I can easily see all 3 of Westbrook, George, and Melo shooting below their season averages for the series.

They're still 10th overall on the season in DRtG. And have defended quite well when Westbrook commited to the defensive end, even without Roberson. With them defensively, it's more about discipline than skill imo. A lot of games lost on the defensive end because of lackadaisical rotations and bad effort. With Melo back there, you gotta move and help, but sometimes they were just unwilling to do that.

Lately they've defended the PnR more conservatively which has helped the starters.

EDIT: And I think it's also important to note that while the Jazz play 'in motion' offensively, they are not playing like the teams that give the Thunder problems (especially without Roberson): It's when you have to involve everybody defensively when they struggle. That's against teams with dynamic guards who can both shoot and get to the rim.
The Jazz take the most drives in the league, yet score at the 2nd worst rate on them. Their backcourt rotation combines for ~ 4-5 3PM per game on 34 % shooting. They are 3rd in total PnR possessions finished by the ball handler, yet 27th in PPP. And even though they have been above average when their Roll Man finishes a PnR possession, they are only 22nd in total possessions.

The Jazz have been doing a very good job at executing and scoring off of that, but at the same time that's something the Thunder have been able to defend against. Especially when Adams has been able to hang back.

[Andri]

For me the difference could be about RW and RR ability to make jumpshots, and Adams or Gobert&Favs winning the rebounding battle.

So... it's going to be interesting

[RunOKC]

Honestly Jerami Grant might be the difference for OKC. He has been on a tear the second half of the season. If he can continue to give 12-15 a game on his great efficiency while drawing 3-4 fouls a game I think it will be wraps for the Jazz. No way Favors can guard him.

[Patches Perry]

Currently 54% on this forum have Utah winning this series. Interesting given betting odds slightly favor OKC. I wonder if that's just the Westbrook "love" swinging the polls a bit.

[anish23]

Currently 54% on this forum have Utah winning this series. Interesting given betting odds slightly favor OKC. I wonder if that's just the Westbrook "love" swinging the polls a bit.

Everyone is saying this will be the closest series out of all round 1 matchups.

I think Portland-NewOrleans and this both have chance of going to 7 games.

[Pillendreher]

Currently 54% on this forum have Utah winning this series. Interesting given betting odds slightly favor OKC. I wonder if that's just the Westbrook "love" swinging the polls a bit.

Everyone is saying this will be the closest series out of all round 1 matchups.

I think Portland-NewOrleans and this both have chance of going to 7 games.

I'm ready for a Thunder-Grizzlies remake. If there's one thing the Thunder have done quite often this season, it's Grit'N'Grind.

[red_power]

Bookies odds can be razor-thin close but for me it isn't a fair evaluation. Utah were simply head and shoulders above the rest of the west bunch during the second half of the season. I think jazz should be able to close this series as early as in 5 games even though their roster raises some obvious red flags.

[Patches Perry]

Currently 54% on this forum have Utah winning this series. Interesting given betting odds slightly favor OKC. I wonder if that's just the Westbrook "love" swinging the polls a bit.

Everyone is saying this will be the closest series out of all round 1 matchups.

I think Portland-NewOrleans and this both have chance of going to 7 games.

Same. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Utah win, maybe in 6 or even 5. I also wouldn't be surprised to see OKC do the same. Both teams experienced peaks and valleys this year so it's hard to get a hold of what we'll get from either team.

I do think this series also reflects a difference in style of play that people are generally biased about. OKC plays the "wrong way" with Westbrook and all of the isolations, and Utah plays the "right way" with a balanced roster and team basketball that people tend to romanticize.

[inquisitive]

Jazz in 5

[Catchall]

Regarding home-away in the series, the Jazz were 15-2 on the road after January 24th when their season turned around. They were 14-4 at home during that time. If the series goes 6 games, each team will have 3 games at home. Home court only matters if the series goes 7.

I think the Jazz will have the Thunder schemed out by the third game of the series, and it will be up to Billy Donovan to make a few adjustments. The question for me is whether Westbrook or PG13 will be so dominant that they simply take over the series. They have the talent to do it, but they haven't been efficient offensively or consistent.

[Catchall]

Honestly Jerami Grant might be the difference for OKC. He has been on a tear the second half of the season. If he can continue to give 12-15 a game on his great efficiency while drawing 3-4 fouls a game I think it will be wraps for the Jazz. No way Favors can guard him.

I like Jerami Grant. If OKC starts Carmelo and PG13, as you'd expect, then Grant will come off the bench and probably be guarded by Jae Crowder or whoever switches onto him.

[Patches Perry]

Regarding home-away in the series, the Jazz were 15-2 on the road after January 24th when their season turned around. They were 14-4 at home during that time. If the series goes 6 games, each team will have 3 games at home. Home court only matters if the series goes 7.

Home court matters if it goes 5 also.