The Draft (Postseason Edition): 1/16/31/59 (NEW POLL)

[Mjee]

I can pretty much guarantee that if we drop to pick #4 in the lottery...... its getting traded.

Just a hunch

[bwgood77]

I can pretty much guarantee that if we drop to pick #4 in the lottery...... its getting traded.

Just a hunch

You think to trade down a few spots? Or for a player?

[darealjuice]

As far as % at the rim, some hold that against Trae as well, since he shoots 53.5% at the rim, which is far worse than most of the other pg prospects. So similarly on offense, he can't seem to finish there and the shooting strength is from 3 like JJJ. Of course their others skills are different, JJJ being the elite defender and Trae the elite floor distributor.

Are you similarly low on Trae after more research and the low % at the rim #?

Yup, it definitely limits Trae in my eyes and is part of why I wouldn't consider him with a top 2 pick. I've said for awhile that it's something he needs to improve though. Your point on JJJ and Trae's strength both being 3-point shooting is exactly why I say there's more to the game than 3PT%. Their percentages are similar, but the way the get those shots and their ability to counter when the open looks are taken away are only completely different levels. I'm not as confident in JJJ's ability to counter being chased off the 3-point line as I am with Trae, and I think it's inevitable that teams will do that assuming his shot translates.

You're getting too focused on one aspect of my argument at a time. I'm not saying "he's bad at the rim, therefore I'm low on him as a prospect." It's a combination of all the questions I have (i.e. poor finishing around the rim, below average rebounding, lack of creating offense, complete lack of being a "roll man" in college, funky release/mechanics/outlier games, etc.) that make me skeptical of him as the top tier prospect that he's being made out as. I'm not trying to get people to think he's a bad prospect, but I am trying to get across that he's more of a project than people are implying and the reasons I don't see the high-upside, instant impact, elite prospect that some people do. I mean people mention him in the same sentence as the elite of the elite like AD, KAT, KG, and Embiid on almost every page that he's discussed, and that seems crazy to me.

[bwgood77]

As far as % at the rim, some hold that against Trae as well, since he shoots 53.5% at the rim, which is far worse than most of the other pg prospects. So similarly on offense, he can't seem to finish there and the shooting strength is from 3 like JJJ. Of course their others skills are different, JJJ being the elite defender and Trae the elite floor distributor.

Are you similarly low on Trae after more research and the low % at the rim #?

Yup, it definitely limits Trae in my eyes and is part of why I wouldn't consider him with a top 2 pick. I've said for awhile that it's something he needs to improve though. Your point on JJJ and Trae's strength both being 3-point shooting is exactly why I say there's more to the game than 3PT%. Their percentages are similar, but the way the get those shots and their ability to counter when the open looks are taken away are only completely different levels. I'm not as confident in JJJ's ability to counter being chased off the 3-point line as I am with Trae, and I think it's inevitable that teams will do that assuming his shot translates.

You're getting too focused on one aspect of my argument at a time. I'm not saying "he's bad at the rim, therefore I'm low on him as a prospect." It's a combination of all the questions I have (i.e. poor finishing around the rim, below average rebounding, lack of creating offense, complete lack of being a "roll man" in college, funky release/mechanics/outlier games, etc.) that make me skeptical of him as the top tier prospect that he's being made out as. I'm not trying to get people to think he's a bad prospect, but I am trying to get across that he's more of a project than people are implying and the reasons I don't see the high-upside, instant impact, elite prospect that some people do. I mean people mention him in the same sentence as the elite of the elite like AD, KAT, KG, and Embiid on almost every page that he's discussed, and that seems crazy to me.

Oh yeah, Trae's drop to 36% in 3 pt shooting isn't a concern to me because of that stuff, and I still consider him an elite shooter based on the types of shots he takes. And I wasn't comparing JJJ to that. In fact I edited part of that out of my post after posting it because it's not real comparable, even though I think the outside shooting is a strength for both.

I don't think many expect him to be instant AD, KAT, KD or Embiid at all. I certainly don't. I expect defensive impact initiallyt and a player with a lot of the tools to be extremely effective in today's nba.

I think of him more like Myles Turner with higher upside...a guy who I kept overlooking in college because he only played a little over 20 mpg and averaged 10/6.

But he's been better defensively and as a shooter (from 2 and 3) in college than Myles was. Now Myles started fairly slow but has progressed nicely and is a major part to what Indiana does. Myles was a little better at the rim..over 71%, but that is a guy I think of that is somewhat similar, though I think JJJ can make a little bit quicker impact and have a higher ceiling.

Now I know getting a better version of Myles Turner may not excite many people, or even just a guy similar to Myles Turner.

But I don't think there is an Embiid, KG or AD in this draft. KAT's not a good comparison other than they both didn't play much or put up great box raw numbers because of timed played and both had about the same foul rate...over 5+ per 36.

JJJ/Myles side by side college #s

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jaren-jackson-jr--myles-turner

[WeekapaugGroove]

Read on Twitter

Good article and makes me a little more optimistic about Bagley. Interesting they talk about him as a 'blank canvas' it reinforces my belief that Bagley is biggest project at the top of this draft. I know that seems odd considering the counting stats he put in college and considering that guys like Bamba and JJJ seem like raw prospects but counting stats don't tell a full story when it comes to building a winning lineup int he NBA. With Bagley you will need to be patient because parts of his game are going to take time and his weaknesses will get exploited early in his career. You will need a system that makes him work on those weaknesses and you will have to live with the mistakes early that will cost a team some games.

[bwgood77]

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Good article and makes me a little more optimistic about Bagley. Interesting they talk about him as a 'blank canvas' it reinforces my belief that Bagley is biggest project at the top of this draft. I know that seems odd considering the counting stats he put in college and considering that guys like Bamba and JJJ seem like raw prospects but counting stats don't tell a full story when it comes to building a winning lineup int he NBA. With Bagley you will need to be patient because parts of his game are going to take time and his weaknesses will get exploited early in his career. You will need a system that makes him work on those weaknesses and you will have to live with the mistakes early that will cost a team some games.

Yeah, it's a little strange that it is meant to be a pro Bagley argument but continues to mention weaknesses "which mean he has a lot of upside"...but then it also emphasizes he'd be best at the 5 and could be somewhat like Blake or Amare as an inside finisher. Which is something I think many of us have brought up. Of course it is all offense based so if we played him at C I don't know what the D would look like without any rim protection. That guy has Ayton at 6 on his board and Bagley at 7 though, so it's interesting reading it with that context as well.

[AtheJ415]

I'll just say this re-Ayton. I think people are looking at today's game and penalizing him for not being an ideal fit. He does have a great jumper, and I do personally think he will hit the 3 ball at a decent clip within a few years. But I think people are underestimating his ability to bully people down low, hit jumpers at a high clip, and finish over the top of everyone, while remaining nimble enough to run with smaller guys. It is really rare. I will never understand the Okafor comparisons. And I don't think he's even comparable to Bagley offensively because right now Bagley is a glorified Kenneth Faried. People are assuming he isn't a fit due to things he hasn't done yet (like hit 3s), while taking that as proof that he CAN'T do that. I think his raw skills point to that not being the case.

[Kerrsed]

Read on Twitter

I LOVE it!!! That Garnett video is great. Damn i miss Kev.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I'll just say this re-Ayton. I think people are looking at today's game and penalizing him for not being an ideal fit. He does have a great jumper, and I do personally think he will hit the 3 ball at a decent clip within a few years. But I think people are underestimating his ability to bully people down low, hit jumpers at a high clip, and finish over the top of everyone, while remaining nimble enough to run with smaller guys. It is really rare. I will never understand the Okafor comparisons. And I don't think he's even comparable to Bagley offensively because right now Bagley is a glorified Kenneth Faried. People are assuming he isn't a fit due to things he hasn't done yet (like hit 3s), while taking that as proof that he CAN'T do that. I think his raw skills point to that not being the case.

Yeah the way I view Ayton and his fit in today's NBA is that you expect him to be the so dominant that you make teams adjust to what you're doing and not the other way around. Basically say to teams 'you want to go small' well we have this monster in the post that's going to punish the **** out of you if you do. In a way that can even help your defense because it prevents some teams from playing their best offensive lineup against you because they will be forced to play a traditional big against him.

The reason that small ball is so popular and works is most teams bigs aren't talented enough to punish teams for doing it.

[Kerrsed]

I'll just say this re-Ayton. I think people are looking at today's game and penalizing him for not being an ideal fit. He does have a great jumper, and I do personally think he will hit the 3 ball at a decent clip within a few years. But I think people are underestimating his ability to bully people down low, hit jumpers at a high clip, and finish over the top of everyone, while remaining nimble enough to run with smaller guys. It is really rare. I will never understand the Okafor comparisons. And I don't think he's even comparable to Bagley offensively because right now Bagley is a glorified Kenneth Faried. People are assuming he isn't a fit due to things he hasn't done yet (like hit 3s), while taking that as proof that he CAN'T do that. I think his raw skills point to that not being the case.

The great players evolve. They see what is working and whats not working and evolve. They figure out what they need to improve on to make themselves the best player they can be and they do that. But they have to have that will in them, that want to be great if not THE Greatest, and i have to say that i do see that in Ayton. I think he wants to be the best. I think he has that mentality to him, that we will see him improve himself year after year after year.

[JMac1]

Only reason I’m afraid of the 4th pick is that we may pick someone not named Young, otherwise I would not even be debating who we should pick versus how he would fit, because I have no issues with Doncic Ayton Bagley and Trae. I think without a doubt neither do the FO except with Trae....

People are over analyzing these players because we really don’t have anything to do as basketball fans now. Also, I know we hate Knight but he isn’t bad as our frustrations tell us he is, that’s why McD talked about C being a bigger priority. We have Booker Knight and JJ as ball handlers, I know Doncic gets love, but we have other needs of priority.

Our board could be

1 Ayton
2 Bagley
3 JJJ
4 Bamba with 2-4 being interchangeable.

I know we want a two way player allstar at 1-4, however, a 10 year starter is all we really need if those two young guys we have turn out to be what we hope they can be. I hate JJJ, but if his game translates, he’d be perfect with Booker and JJ. He doesn’t need the ball to be effective offensively and he can play D. Not pretty, but he is a needed type player.

Picking top 4 is what we wanted when the tank started and now it’s what we have and people can still find away to not be happy being where they wanted to be. We should chill and trust the process.

After the way JJ finished the season, my entire outlook on the draft changed; none of these players may be as good as JJ, not because they are bad, but because JJ is just that good.

What’s wrong with selecting a third wheel with Booker and JJ as core players?

Hell....trading the pick just may be a better option

What is your reasoning for no doncic in the top 4? He'd be a huge improvement on Knight and fit in well with Booker and Jackson

My top four are Doncic Ayton then Bagley. I was trying to figure out what our FO might be thinking.

[bwgood77]

I'll just say this re-Ayton. I think people are looking at today's game and penalizing him for not being an ideal fit. He does have a great jumper, and I do personally think he will hit the 3 ball at a decent clip within a few years. But I think people are underestimating his ability to bully people down low, hit jumpers at a high clip, and finish over the top of everyone, while remaining nimble enough to run with smaller guys. It is really rare. I will never understand the Okafor comparisons. And I don't think he's even comparable to Bagley offensively because right now Bagley is a glorified Kenneth Faried. People are assuming he isn't a fit due to things he hasn't done yet (like hit 3s), while taking that as proof that he CAN'T do that. I think his raw skills point to that not being the case.

You keep mentioning people here being too hard on him. I don't really think that's the case. He's clearly most everyone's 1 or 2 and many who might have him 2 he is right there at 1.

I think he will be able to hit the 3 at a reasonable rate. He already shoots 34% and 73% from the line. While not great, it is much better than like Bagley and Bamba. But for a C his offense is ahead of everyone's and his rebounding too...his size and length and ability to tip back to himself will all be useful in the NBA where Bagley's motor being nice, the lack of length could hurt him with rebounding.

Shot blocking he obviously is much better than Bagley even if it's not his greatest strength (at least in relation to other elite top big men in past drafts..he still has an ok block rate). The main thing he will need to improve on his rotating to the rim and not getting out of position and his awareness overall on team defense. The extremely low steal rate though is a concern given that is usually a prime defensive indicator. But at least he has the size, length and tools and should be a plus offensively, solid rebounder, and hopefully at least a passable defender to start. But offensively there shouldn't be too much question that he should be good.

People have been mentioning Bamba being a defensive guy who can hit the 3. I think Ayton is probably a bit more equipped to do that right now. And of course he wants to play 4.

[JMac1]

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As my man Randy Quaid said in Independence Day...”I’ve been saying it.....”

Nice work. Especially from a detractor of his. Doesn’t mean any more or any less than other takes, but I like the reinforcement. I’d still put Ayton and Doncic before him, however, that’s why I have no issues with 3. Like I said I wouldn’t at four if Trae is our guy.

All four have questions.....all four have star potential. It’s a toss up as to who will be what?

Don’t blow it Suns. The lotto can’t hurt us as much as a poor pick.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

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As my man Randy Quaid said in Independence Day...”I’ve been saying it.....”

Nice work. Especially from a detractor of his. Doesn’t mean any more or any less than other takes, but I like the reinforcement. I’d still put Ayton and Doncic before him, however, that’s why I have no issues with 3. Like I said I wouldn’t at four if Trae is our guy.

All four have questions.....all four have star potential. It’s a toss up as to who will be what?

Don’t blow it Suns. The lotto can’t hurt us as much as a poor pick.

I think the Suns will be particularly risk-averse with this pick, and will be especially wary of the possibility that the player we draft might take some time to develop. So while my personal board differs, I think the Suns board is:

1. Ayton
2. Doncic
3. Bagley
4. Bamba

If he stays healthy, I think Bamba's floor is very high. He would immediately elevate our defense, though he would also really hurt us on offense for at least the first couple seasons.

I have Trae #3 on my board, but man, the fit with Booker truly is worrisome. Can our offense be so good that it will compensate for what we lose on the other end? I'm not really sure. Offenses will target Trae every possession of every game for the whole of his career. Bagley and Ayton may be flawed defensively, but those guys have tools you can work with. Trae is going to have to discipline and train his body for years to be able to get to a point where he can be anything less than a major negative on defense. But then again, his offensive profile is so crazy, you still wonder if it might be worth it. For teams with more flexibility in their roster construction, I think that question is not nearly as tough: pair Trae with a versatile 3&D player at the 2 and otherwise build your team around him.

[bwgood77]

Read on Twitter

As my man Randy Quaid said in Independence Day...”I’ve been saying it.....”

Nice work. Especially from a detractor of his. Doesn’t mean any more or any less than other takes, but I like the reinforcement. I’d still put Ayton and Doncic before him, however, that’s why I have no issues with 3. Like I said I wouldn’t at four if Trae is our guy.

All four have questions.....all four have star potential. It’s a toss up as to who will be what?

Don’t blow it Suns. The lotto can’t hurt us as much as a poor pick.

I think the Suns will be particularly risk-averse with this pick, and will be especially wary of the possibility that the player we draft might take some time to develop. So while my personal board differs, I think the Suns board is:

1. Ayton
2. Doncic
3. Bagley
4. Bamba

If he stays healthy, I think Bamba's floor is very high. He would immediately elevate our defense, though he would also really hurt us on offense for at least the first couple seasons.

It just depends on perspective. I think a number of people view Bagley and Bamba as some of the bigger risks. Heck, a few are that way of Ayton and some of Doncic, so it comes down to the eye of the beholder. Most of what that article mentioned in path to stardom still laid in "potential upside since now it's a weakness".

The sure thing about Bagley is that he will crash the boards and get points on putbacks as well as finish. So the question is, are those the types of sure thing qualities you want at the top of a draft. Or can a lot of guys do that?

Then you have a guy like Jackson being a pretty sure thing as a quality defender...man to man and team defender, inside and out, and can shoot. Or are those the things that you want as your likely floor?

So the potential things to improve on and upside are JJ developing more of a well rounded offensive game and becoming a better rebounder, cutting down on fouls (this one concerns me the least), and Bagley developing any semblance of a defensive game and expanding his offensive game outside of the small area.

I mean these things are truly in the eye of the beholder about who is safer and who has more upside.

I mean in this one and done era, ANY of these guys could end up being great and it's obviously all guesswork.

I still have a hard time seeing a coach like Bud preferring Bagley over JJJ though.

[Kerrsed]

Say we land the #1 pick, my question is what would it take to land #2 or #3?

#16
#31
Bucks 1st
Miami 1st
Suns 2019 1st

Would there be a team crazy enough to do that?

Thats 4 First round picks. We gamble our future for the next year (Maybe 2) that getting both Ayton and Doncic is the right thing to do and that we cant do any better in next years draft. We still have our future picks (Besides the 2019), so the Miami and Milwaukee picks are just bonuses. I think i would do this in a heartbeat, but trying to judge what other team would in the event that someone jumps ahead in the lotto and is willing to wait a few years to collect that kings ransom.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

As my man Randy Quaid said in Independence Day...”I’ve been saying it.....”

Nice work. Especially from a detractor of his. Doesn’t mean any more or any less than other takes, but I like the reinforcement. I’d still put Ayton and Doncic before him, however, that’s why I have no issues with 3. Like I said I wouldn’t at four if Trae is our guy.

All four have questions.....all four have star potential. It’s a toss up as to who will be what?

Don’t blow it Suns. The lotto can’t hurt us as much as a poor pick.

I think the Suns will be particularly risk-averse with this pick, and will be especially wary of the possibility that the player we draft might take some time to develop. So while my personal board differs, I think the Suns board is:

1. Ayton
2. Doncic
3. Bagley
4. Bamba

If he stays healthy, I think Bamba's floor is very high. He would immediately elevate our defense, though he would also really hurt us on offense for at least the first couple seasons.

It just depends on perspective. I think a number of people view Bagley and Bamba as some of the bigger risks. Heck, a few are that way of Ayton and some of Doncic, so it comes down to the eye of the beholder. Most of what that article mentioned in path to stardom still laid in "potential upside since now it's a weakness".

The sure thing about Bagley is that he will crash the boards and get points on putbacks as well as finish. So the question is, are those the types of sure thing qualities you want at the top of a draft. Or can a lot of guys do that?

Then you have a guy like Jackson being a pretty sure thing as a quality defender...man to man and team defender, inside and out, and can shoot. Or those the things that you want as your likely floor?

So the potential things to improve on and upside are JJ developing more of a well rounded offensive game and becoming a better rebounder, cutting down on fouls (this one concerns me the least), and Bagley developing any semblance of a defensive game and expanding his offensive game outside of the small area.

I mean these things are truly in the eye of the beholder about who is safer and who has more upside.

I mean in this one and done era, ANY of these guys could end up being great and it's obviously all guesswork.

I still have a hard time seeing a coach like Bud preferring Bagley over JJJ though.

Funny that I'm MOST worried about JJJr's fouls (and what that means for how his defense will translate) and the thing I'm LEAST worried about with Bagley is whether he will develop a well-rounded offensive game.

Bagley's got special tools, man. He's a bouncy 6'11" kid with a nack for putting the ball in the basket, but his footwork and quickness are like those of a small forward. He's five on my board but he's probably my favorite prospect in the draft! (I'm a mess!)

[WeekapaugGroove]

Definitely a big 'eye of the beholder' draft. Makes me think of something that Mike Lombardi said about NFL scouts that I think can apply to how both fans and NBA draftnicks think about prospects. He said that there are 4 "P's" that scouts fall into

Poor Scout- The scout that is just bad

Picker Scout- The scout that picks on the things a player can't do

Production Scout- The scout that just grades on production at the college level

Projection Scout- The scout that focuses on what a guy could become and has a more optimistic outlook

I think where you fall on that scale probably impacts who you like of this years class.

[bwgood77]

Funny that I'm MOST worried about JJJr's fouls (and what that means for how his defense will translate) and the thing I'm LEAST worried about with Bagley is whether he will develop a well-rounded offensive game.

Bagley's got special tools, man. He's a bouncy 6'11" kid with a nack for putting the ball in the basket, but his footwork and quickness are like those of a small forward. He's five on my board but he's probably my favorite prospect in the draft! (I'm a mess!)

I don't understand the fouls. By all indications he is a very smart kid who learns at a rapid pace. Towns had similar foul problems in college, Bender had far worse foul problems coming in and fixed them. With proper coaching I just don't see it as a big deal. I think that is probably one of the easier things to learn.

So being high on Bagley and thinking he can expand his offensive game, it seems I read a post from you yesterday mentioning that in your view, defense was our biggest need....this was as an alternative to 3 pt shooting but it seemed to be what you thought we should focus on.

[thamadkant]

Read on Twitter

Good article and makes me a little more optimistic about Bagley. Interesting they talk about him as a 'blank canvas' it reinforces my belief that Bagley is biggest project at the top of this draft. I know that seems odd considering the counting stats he put in college and considering that guys like Bamba and JJJ seem like raw prospects but counting stats don't tell a full story when it comes to building a winning lineup int he NBA. With Bagley you will need to be patient because parts of his game are going to take time and his weaknesses will get exploited early in his career. You will need a system that makes him work on those weaknesses and you will have to live with the mistakes early that will cost a team some games.

Yeah, it's a little strange that it is meant to be a pro Bagley argument but continues to mention weaknesses "which mean he has a lot of upside"...but then it also emphasizes he'd be best at the 5 and could be somewhat like Blake or Amare as an inside finisher. Which is something I think many of us have brought up. Of course it is all offense based so if we played him at C I don't know what the D would look like without any rim protection. That guy has Ayton at 6 on his board and Bagley at 7 though, so it's interesting reading it with that context as well.

Except Bagley is narrow bodied... Stoudemire and Griffin are jacked and thick or wide.

Bagley is also narrower than Marion... Marion has longer wingspan as well.

Bagley has a the height of PF but measurements of an average SF... And game style of a Center.

He can get around that if he was a good shooter like Rashard Lewis but he isn't... He relies on hustle and energy inside. I feel he will do well off offensive rebounds but would struggle against longer stronger defenders one on one...