'17-'18 POY discussion

[dhsilv2]

Lebron suggests something to a GM - bad.

Butler does the same - Good/no issue.

I'm done with the point, it's whatever.

On another note a thought for ROY, but Simmons was well ahead. If Utah wins this series and Philly loses, is Mitchell in the running?

I really don't get how Mitchel is even close enough to be talked about next to Simmons.


5.2 WS vs 9.2
16.7 PER vs 20
2.1 VORP vs 4.5
2.39 RPM 3.2
9.24 WINS 11.45

I'll grant you the plus minus is a bit closer, but these guys aren't on the same tier. The gap is too wide to let a single playoff series decide it. If Utah makes the finals....then maybe we can discuss it, but even then I don't see it unless Mitchel starts being the best player on the Jazz and he's not that.

I prefer Simmons for the large defensive edge, would take Mitchell by a more slim margin on offense, but I wouldn't say they are a completely different tier. Believe Donovan has the lead when you go to more pure +/- stuff (not xRAPM).

I'd have to see the vanilla numbers, though his role as the primary scorer I think is inflating his value. I guess this is an area I disagree with many on, but I feel scorers are far more available than most seem to think, most teams just would rather use guys at his level in different roles, but out of necessity the Jazz are using him more to score. Guys like Simmons on offense are far more valuable imo.

[dontcalltimeout]

I really don't get how Mitchel is even close enough to be talked about next to Simmons.


5.2 WS vs 9.2
16.7 PER vs 20
2.1 VORP vs 4.5
2.39 RPM 3.2
9.24 WINS 11.45

I'll grant you the plus minus is a bit closer, but these guys aren't on the same tier. The gap is too wide to let a single playoff series decide it. If Utah makes the finals....then maybe we can discuss it, but even then I don't see it unless Mitchel starts being the best player on the Jazz and he's not that.

I prefer Simmons for the large defensive edge, would take Mitchell by a more slim margin on offense, but I wouldn't say they are a completely different tier. Believe Donovan has the lead when you go to more pure +/- stuff (not xRAPM).

I'd have to see the vanilla numbers, though his role as the primary scorer I think is inflating his value. I guess this is an area I disagree with many on, but I feel scorers are far more available than most seem to think, most teams just would rather use guys at his level in different roles, but out of necessity the Jazz are using him more to score. Guys like Simmons on offense are far more valuable imo.

Here is a source for single year RAPM: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzp3G5rwP9xgCgluVGmR3Qj4-BMoGSYiuTKM6o_pzES6s95oQE1nQvB2CXed-4fRc_MMGgpULtDaJ_/pubhtml?gid=1825430955&single=true

Yes Mitchell's value is probably overstated on Utah because, while they are a really strong team, they lack explosive scoring talent. I do think we shouldn't take for granted what Mitchell is able to do. He already has a better balance and playmaking instinct than other guys we think of as "scorers" (DeRozan, Wiggins, etc) and that's really promising in his first year. He's also elevated his creation since Rubio's injury. He averaged 2.7 AST in the first round and in two games is averaging 8.0 against the Rockets.

That said, overall I agree Simmons would get the most out of a team with a lot of offensive talent. Just wanted to give Donovan his due.

[eminence]

Updated eliminated leaderboard:

1. Victor Oladipo - Came out of nowhere to lead a surprisingly successful Pacers squad, spot will fluctuate a bit based on what the Cavs show going forward.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo - Team just can't seem to make the jump, but I believe he's still progressing even if it's slowed.
3. Russell Westbrook - Regressed a bit from last year, but much of the backlash is from overhype, the Thunder looked like a 2nd tier team at best coming into the season and they achieved about what they should imo.
4. Nikola Jokic - RS compared to the 3 above, but a bit lower minutes and didn't get to show out in the playoffs. Looked good in the closest thing you'll see to the playoffs.
5. Kemba Walker - Another solid RS from Kemba, hope we get to see him in the playoffs again soon.

HM:
Lillard - Had a great RS, but really laid an egg come playoff time, tough matchup and all but you've got to be better than that.
Aldridge - Just wasn't quite good enough.
Butler - Missed a bunch of games and wasn't the same when he returned.
Towns - Solid during the RS, struggled in his playoff debut.

Obviously many of the best players are still playing but it's interesting to see who can hang onto their spots (realistically Oladipo feels like the only one who might).

After letting these thoughts sit for a bit they still feel right to me. Think the top 4 are a separate tier from the others. Early 2nd round thoughts.

HOU vs UTA: Harden has looked great, might have been fishing for fouls a bit too much in game 2. CP3 has been pretty meh by his standards, looking more and more like he'll miss my ballot unless he winds up taking over some future series. Jazz and Gobert especially really locked in in Game 2, but it also really highlighted how much of a team effort it is.

GSW vs NOP: Steph Curry is a supernova. Draymond has been the best player in the series. KD keeps doing enough to stay on the fringes of the conversation. Davis is still a tough one for me, I think he'll make my ballot but I don't see him ending up top 2-3.

TOR vs CLE: Poor Toronto.

BOS vs PHI: Can I vote for Brad? Simmons came back down to earth a bit in game 1, it'll be interesting to see if a rookie can make the needed adjustments over the course of the series, no shame if he can't.

If I had to guess what my top 5 winds up being, in no order, I'd guess it winds up being Harden/LeBron/Curry/Draymond/Davis, but we'll see.

[mdonnelly1989]

The way that I interpret the best player of the year is with all rosters empty which players gives you the best Odds to a win a championship provided they played enough games.

#1. Lebron James

#2. James Harden (Curry/KD are better both both played less games and KD was less consistent)

#3. Anthony Davis

#4. Giannis Antenkounpo (KD is clearly better at this point, but felt Giannis put the Bucs on his back more so)

#5. KD


If we are going top 5 best odds to win a ring regardless .

#1. Lebron

#2. Curry
#3. KD
#4. Harden
#5. AD

[dhsilv2]

My lord that fadeaway by lebron. I swear real time he barely looked at the rim, only in slow motion does it appear he did see the rim. Wow.

[iggymcfrack]

Honestly, I gotta give it to LeBron right now. I had him in 4th after the regular season, but would anyone in the world rather have Harden right now? Bron having his team up 2-0 over Toronto with the most epic playoffs carry job of all-time vs. Harden being at 1-1 with several questionable performances, I think you have to give it to Bron. Obviously if Harden beats the Warriors, LeBron’s gonna have a lot more work to do to maintain his position.

[dhsilv2]

Honestly, I gotta give it to LeBron right now. I had him in 4th after the regular season, but would anyone in the world rather have Harden right now? Bron having his team up 2-0 over Toronto with the most epic playoffs carry job of all-time vs. Harden being at 1-1 with several questionable performances, I think you have to give it to Bron. Obviously if Harden beats the Warriors, LeBron’s gonna have a lot more work to do to maintain his position.

I'd strongly rather have the 1 seed than whatever the cavs are relative to the whole league. That's NOT a small thing.

[bondom34]

I'll never trust the Raptors again. Done.

[clyde21]

I'll never trust the Raptors again. Done.

Shouldn't have trusted them this year.

Easiest money I've ever made.

[iggymcfrack]

Honestly, I gotta give it to LeBron right now. I had him in 4th after the regular season, but would anyone in the world rather have Harden right now? Bron having his team up 2-0 over Toronto with the most epic playoffs carry job of all-time vs. Harden being at 1-1 with several questionable performances, I think you have to give it to Bron. Obviously if Harden beats the Warriors, LeBron’s gonna have a lot more work to do to maintain his position.

I'd strongly rather have the 1 seed than whatever the cavs are relative to the whole league. That's NOT a small thing.

If Harden played for the Cavs, they wouldn’t be the 1 seed in the East. They might not have even made it out of the first round. They have that position in large part because of the system and the other plays around Harden.

[mischievous]

The way that I interpret the best player of the year is with all rosters empty which players gives you the best Odds to a win a championship provided they played enough games.

#1. Lebron James

#2. James Harden (Curry/KD are better both both played less games and KD was less consistent)

#3. Anthony Davis

#4. Giannis Antenkounpo (KD is clearly better at this point, but felt Giannis put the Bucs on his back more so)

#5. KD

I think this is probably what my list will end up looking like as well. Curry has missed too many games, there’s no way someone should be top 5 after missing 30ish games plus an entire round. May end up putting KD ahead of Giannis and AD depending how he plays but this list looks most reasonable to me as of now.

If we are going top 5 best odds to win a ring regardless .

#1. Lebron

#2. Curry
#3. KD
#4. Harden
#5. AD

Wouldn’t really agree with KD over Harden in a vacuum. This version of Harden has been comfortably better than any version of KD imo.

[NinjaSheppard]

Honestly, I gotta give it to LeBron right now. I had him in 4th after the regular season, but would anyone in the world rather have Harden right now? Bron having his team up 2-0 over Toronto with the most epic playoffs carry job of all-time vs. Harden being at 1-1 with several questionable performances, I think you have to give it to Bron. Obviously if Harden beats the Warriors, LeBron’s gonna have a lot more work to do to maintain his position.

I'd strongly rather have the 1 seed than whatever the cavs are relative to the whole league. That's NOT a small thing.

If Harden played for the Cavs, they wouldn’t be the 1 seed in the East. They might not have even made it out of the first round. They have that position in large part because of the system and the other plays around Harden.

You don't get to bully your team into making a bunch of short sighted win now moves and then complain about the roster when you are on the backend of those moves.

Harden embracing everything Morey and D'Antoni wanted to do and helping convince Paul to join is a good thing and not something you punish him for.

[Texas Chuck]

You don't get to bully your team into making a bunch of short sighted win now moves and then complain about the roster when you are on the backend of those moves.

I see this sentiment a lot, but I'm not sure I agree. An aging superstar player who came back to play for an owner who trashed him on the way out of town the first time has every right to make demands that the team upgrade the talent around him in the last years of his prime. And if the team then fails at executing that, he should still be able to complain about it--tho I don't think its Lebron complaining about it so much as it is people pointing out how bad the roster is that is upsetting people.


This idea that Lebron literally hand-picked every move makes for a cute narrative I suppose, but it's not reality. And however his roster got to this point, his ability to carry them is still impressive and I don't understand why it isn't.

[dhsilv2]

Honestly, I gotta give it to LeBron right now. I had him in 4th after the regular season, but would anyone in the world rather have Harden right now? Bron having his team up 2-0 over Toronto with the most epic playoffs carry job of all-time vs. Harden being at 1-1 with several questionable performances, I think you have to give it to Bron. Obviously if Harden beats the Warriors, LeBron’s gonna have a lot more work to do to maintain his position.

I'd strongly rather have the 1 seed than whatever the cavs are relative to the whole league. That's NOT a small thing.

If Harden played for the Cavs, they wouldn’t be the 1 seed in the East. They might not have even made it out of the first round. They have that position in large part because of the system and the other plays around Harden.

They would have a far far better seed and would have gotten out of the first round.

[dhsilv2]

You don't get to bully your team into making a bunch of short sighted win now moves and then complain about the roster when you are on the backend of those moves.

I see this sentiment a lot, but I'm not sure I agree. An aging superstar player who came back to play for an owner who trashed him on the way out of town the first time has every right to make demands that the team upgrade the talent around him in the last years of his prime. And if the team then fails at executing that, he should still be able to complain about it--tho I don't think its Lebron complaining about it so much as it is people pointing out how bad the roster is that is upsetting people.


This idea that Lebron literally hand-picked every move makes for a cute narrative I suppose, but it's not reality. And however his roster got to this point, his ability to carry them is still impressive and I don't understand why it isn't.

That might float if that wasn't the narrative before he left too. Now the question is if cleveland can't think long term or if lebron forced their hand every year of his career. That's hard to comment on, I don't know much about all those kinds of details.

[MisterHibachi]

Simmons really struggling against the Celtics these first two games.

[mdonnelly1989]

The way that I interpret the best player of the year is with all rosters empty which players gives you the best Odds to a win a championship provided they played enough games.

#1. Lebron James

#2. James Harden (Curry/KD are better both both played less games and KD was less consistent)

#3. Anthony Davis

#4. Giannis Antenkounpo (KD is clearly better at this point, but felt Giannis put the Bucs on his back more so)

#5. KD

I think this is probably what my list will end up looking like as well. Curry has missed too many games, there’s no way someone should be top 5 after missing 30ish games plus an entire round. May end up putting KD ahead of Giannis and AD depending how he plays but this list looks most reasonable to me as of now.

If we are going top 5 best odds to win a ring regardless .

#1. Lebron

#2. Curry
#3. KD
#4. Harden
#5. AD

Wouldn’t really agree with KD over Harden in a vacuum. This version of Harden has been comfortably better than any version of KD imo.

Yeah I feel you could argue a case for KD > Giannis in terms of player of the year. That's close, but I feel the top 3 for player of the year are locks.

As for Harden > Curry. Idk that's saying a LOT. Harden plays in a great system catered to his strengths. Harden will be a top 30 Peak of all time year but KD is already top 25ish and has to share the ball with Curry/Klay

Harden is comfortably better on offense, but it's not that far out when you consider usage rate. Harden has made to average on defense where as KD is maybe not a lock down defender but very sound defensively is how I would say it.

They are close!

[NinjaSheppard]

Man Kyrie Irving really missed out on this postseason

He'd have gotten so much undeserved credit if he had stayed healthy and it would have elevated him as a basketball player to a level that he has no business being in terms of perception.

[INKtastic]

Man Kyrie Irving really missed out on this postseason

He'd have gotten so much undeserved credit if he had stayed healthy and it would have elevated him as a basketball player to a level that he has no business being in terms of perception.

It's just a matter of time before he requests a trade somewhere where he can be The Man.

[GSP]

Watching Lebron and the Cavs do whatever they want to the Craptors makes me really appreciate Victor Oladipos defense

i dont think its a coincidence their shooting was much worse in that series