Discussing Other Teams' Moves - Part 6

[Dat2U]

Look, we really need to get some things straight about Kieff.
Cons: slow first step, not long, AST% : TOV% is poor, doesnt rebound well, doesnt draw enough fouls, energy/defense ebbs and flows, not a rim protector

With that said, people need to stop saying he cant spread the floor or play defense. The guy is a legit 36-37% 3pt shooter on decent volume with an overall TS of 56.6% last year. A year in which we all acknowledge he played hurt.
Defensively, DBPM, DRtg, and DRPM have all shown Kieff to be above average to very good over the last few years. Yes, he can be inconsistent with his effectiveness/intensity, but dont let that cloud the bigger picture.

Fact is, if Kieff comes back this year healthy and is still making 37% of his 3's on solid volume, I think he has one of his best years of his career. He can guard a lot of the smaller 5's these days and spread the floor.

You can't scheme away laziness on defense and Morris often wrecks havoc on D by not rotating at all or giving a weak attempt. Look at game 6 against Toronto in the 4th and specifically watch Morris on D. Go back and look at game 7 in the 4th against Boston and you'd see the same thing: Morris basically quits on the team.

Why would anyone want a guy that doesn't put in the effort in the most important moments? I wanted him badly off the team after last season. I'm begging for the front office to dump him now. Let him be motivated or unmotivated elsewhere. The Wizards need guys that aren't weak minded and won't quit when times get tough. That's not Markieff.

[Ruzious]

Also, it's not out of the question that Jason Tatum ultimately becomes a truly elite scorer, like a Harden or Durant. If that happens, they won't need Kyrie's isolation offense ability.

Tatum is good, no doubt, but I've seen enough at this point to think that Brad Stevens can get a patchwork of almost any players out there and make them into a team that wins a playoff round or two. Some team is going to pay the Celtics' guys in free agency and is going to wind up with buyer's remorse in a big way. It isn't that their players aren't good, but it's that they aren't as good as they look for the Celtics. I'm curious to see what the Celtics do when it's time to pay guys like Rozier and Tatum, because realistically they might be able to get away with continually just flipping players and treating them as disposable with the way Stevens is getting the best out of them all.

I don't think Ainge's decisions will be all that difficult. It sucks when average-starter caliber players are free agents because you can get stuck paying $12-20M for them. But overpaying is not a problem when elite players hit free agency because of the cap on maximum salary. For the most part, Boston's key players will be max caliber players and retaining them will be no-brainers.

Smart is a free agent this year. They're pretty likely to keep him because nobody has the cap room to bid up his price. They'll probably retain him for $8-12M a year. A modest overpay, but he is a team leader and helps set the tone with his effort and swagger. If necessary, he can be moved down the road.

Rozier is a free agent next summer. I think they'll probably sense that Rozier won't stay around to be paid a backup's salary so they'll try and trade him for value, particularly if Kyrie and Smart are healthy when the Trade Deadline comes around. They'll probably work out a Kyrie extension for the 30% max at this time.

In 2 years, Brown is a free agent, but matching a 25% max offer will be fair value for him. He'll be better than Beal or Porter when they got their extensions. No buyers remorse here.

It's not until 3 years that they'll have to make a decision on Tatum. They'll know by then whether he's a superstar or merely just a pretty good scorer. If he doesn't make an All-NBA team by then, he'll only cost 25% of the cap.

I think they keep Rozier and let Smart go. Smart is one of their leaders and makes big plays on defense, but... he's an awful shooter who has killed them at end of games. I think they can find better all-around backups at lower prices. Rozier is exactly the kind of player you do want at the end of big games. He makes huge plays at both ends, and if he doesn't take the last shot, defenses still have to focus on him. No question imo that Brown, Tatum and Rozier are the future of their organization - even with Haywood and Kyrie returning. Brown is the physical freak of the team and on his way to being a terrific all-around player. Tatum - I'm not sure I've seen a more mature 20 year old player - so cool down the stretch of games and will fit at either forward position.

[nate33]

I think they keep Rozier and let Smart go. Smart is one of their leaders and makes big plays on defense, but... he's an awful shooter who has killed them at end of games. I think they can find better all-around backups at lower prices. Rozier is exactly the kind of player you do want at the end of big games. He makes huge plays at both ends, and if he doesn't take the last shot, defenses still have to focus on him.

The way I see it, they will rarely have Rozier on the floor at the end of big games when Kyrie is back. Why go with Rozier when you can put Kyrie, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Horford on the floor at the same time?

However, it will sometimes make sense to put Smart out there in crunch time if you are trying to improve the defense. If you put Smart at PG in place of Kyrie, you can have all 5 players switchable 1 through 5. Smart is also a legit wing stopper to use when Brown is in foul trouble or needs rest.

I like Rozier a lot, I just think he's redundant with Kyrie, and the team already has enough offense at forward and center that they won't ever need to play them side by side. If Kyrie is healthy, it's hard to find more than 15-20 minutes for Rozier. At least Smart can fill in at multiple positions and provide a lot of defensive flexibility while also being a capable backup PG. You can find 25-30 minutes for him even when Kyrie and Hayward are healthy.

[Ruzious]

I think they keep Rozier and let Smart go. Smart is one of their leaders and makes big plays on defense, but... he's an awful shooter who has killed them at end of games. I think they can find better all-around backups at lower prices. Rozier is exactly the kind of player you do want at the end of big games. He makes huge plays at both ends, and if he doesn't take the last shot, defenses still have to focus on him.

The way I see it, they will rarely have Rozier on the floor at the end of big games when Kyrie is back. Why go with Rozier when you can put Kyrie, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Horford on the floor at the same time?

However, it will sometimes make sense to put Smart out there in crunch time if you are trying to improve the defense. If you put Smart at PG in place of Kyrie, you can have all 5 players switchable 1 through 5. Smart is also a legit wing stopper to use when Brown is in foul trouble or needs rest.

I like Rozier a lot, I just think he's redundant with Kyrie, and the team already has enough offense at forward and center that they won't ever need to play them side by side. If Kyrie is healthy, it's hard to find more than 15-20 minutes for Rozier. At least Smart can fill in at multiple positions and provide a lot of defensive flexibility while also being a capable backup PG. You can find 25-30 minutes for him even when Kyrie and Hayward are healthy.

Imo, you HAVE to play Rozier at the end of games over Smart, because defenders have to cover Rozier, and Rozier can create for his teammates. Irving is a great scorer, but he's never looking to set up anyone else. If you have Smart out there, the defense is/should double Irving. Also, Rozier's an outstanding defender. That's why he was a mid 1st round pick. He wasn't a particularly good offensive player at Louisville and has dramatically improved in the NBA. He's not much like Irving. Smart makes a big play here or there particularly on D, but I think he's overall been a liability for them. When he has the ball down the stretch, I'm picturing Boston fans shouting PLEASE DON"T SHOOT! And he's one of those guys who will shoot in those situations just to show you that he's an alpha male - when he really isn't. He's also had issues with temper tantrums - though he did a very good job last night of standing up for Horford - that was good leadership in a big situation - I was impressed.

[stilldropin20]

^^^Boston is really in a "cant lose" situation. They likely cant beat GSW right now but they could next year with a couple of great trades.

If Rozier takes them to the finals and continues to play very well...esp. if they cont. to take care of Clev with ease...and have a good showing against GSW (compared to everyone else) then Ainge has to think long and hard about trading Kyrie.

Kyrie could net them another major coup like Kawhi leonard.

And play kawhi or hayward interchangeably at the 4 with morris.

Rozier / smart
Tatum / brown
hayward / ojele
kawhi / morris
Horford / baynes

but they should NOT stop there. Brown has proven to be TOO good to come off bench. and in fact should start at SG over Hayward and slide Hayward to 6th man. SO they need to make another trade.

Trade hayward back to utah for Rudy gobert.

rozier / smart
brown/ fa
tatum/ fa
kahwi / morris
gobert / horford (depending on need match up)

that 8 can play with GSW warrior 8. especially with horford starting matching with dray. kawhi with durant. tatum with klay. brown with iggy. rozier or smart on steph and gobert protecting the rim on off/def switch late in games.

Boston would be the best defensive team that can also put some serious points up on the board on high efficiency that GSW have ever faced.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Watch out for the Bucks. Budhy’s going to make them sing.

[Dark Faze]

do yall remember when we said no to a beal for harden swap

[queridiculo]

Watch out for the Bucks. Budhy’s going to make them sing.

I think Budenholzer isn't doing himself any favors taking that job, the Bucks are worse off than the Wizards from a roster and cap perspective. The Raptors must not have been willing to extend an offer because there's no way I'd pick the Milwaukee gig over Toronto.

[Rafael122]

Watch out for the Bucks. Budhy’s going to make them sing.

I think Budenholzer isn't doing himself any favors taking that job, the Bucks are worse off than the Wizards from a roster and cap perspective. The Raptors must not have been willing to extend an offer because there's no way I'd pick the Milwaukee gig over Toronto.

Toronto will be in a rebuilding situation a year from now if they can't get to the East finals. Seems like a lot of folks are missing that and just think Toronto will be a 55 win team for the foreseeable future. That is an aging core with terrible contracts, and that's a terrible job to take if you're Coach Bud. The same thing just happened in Atlanta.

[nate33]

Watch out for the Bucks. Budhy’s going to make them sing.

I think Budenholzer isn't doing himself any favors taking that job, the Bucks are worse off than the Wizards from a roster and cap perspective. The Raptors must not have been willing to extend an offer because there's no way I'd pick the Milwaukee gig over Toronto.

I disagree. I'd much rather the Milwaukee situation.

First of all, they have the second most valuable asset in the league in Antetokounmpo (only Davis is more valuable). Secondly, they didn't win 59 games last year so the threshold for improvement is much easier to meet. Third, Milwaukee was perhaps the most poorly coached team in the league, doing so many things on offense and defense in an unconventional and ineffective manner. Just getting them to play modern defense instead of their scrambling/trapping scheme should be a big help. Finally, Milwaukee's core is quite young. They aren't relying on any players who are on the wrong side of their peak (like Lowry).

I see no reason why the core of Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Brogdon can't win 46-52 games a year for the next 2 years, and then take it to a new level once a bunch of their bad contracts (Snell, Dellavedova, Henson) expire. There's also some wild cards with Bledsoe (can he revive his form from 2 years ago?), Parker (can he learn to defend?) and Thon Maker (is he any good?) that could provide some upside surprise.

[nate33]

I'd take Milwaukee's situation over the Wizards'.

[trast66]

Watch out for the Bucks. Budhy’s going to make them sing.

I think Budenholzer isn't doing himself any favors taking that job, the Bucks are worse off than the Wizards from a roster and cap perspective. The Raptors must not have been willing to extend an offer because there's no way I'd pick the Milwaukee gig over Toronto.

I disagree. I'd much rather the Milwaukee situation.

First of all, they have the second most valuable asset in the league in Antetokounmpo (only Davis is more valuable). Secondly, they didn't win 59 games last year so the threshold for improvement is much easier to meet. Third, Milwaukee was perhaps the most poorly coached team in the league, doing so many things on offense and defense in an unconventional and ineffective manner. Just getting them to play modern defense instead of their scrambling/trapping scheme should be a big help. Finally, Milwaukee's core is quite young. They aren't relying on any players who are on the wrong side of their peak (like Lowry).

I see no reason why the core of Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Brogdon can't win 46-52 games a year for the next 2 years, and then take it to a new level once a bunch of their bad contracts (Snell, Dellavedova, Henson) expire. There's also some wild cards with Snow (can he revive his form from 2 years ago?), Parker (can he learn to defend?) and Thon Maker (is he any good?) that could provide some upside surprise.

I just wasted a half hour of my life pretending I was offered both jobs. Bucks ownership is a bit of a cluster, and everything depends on Greek freak, what if he didn’t like me or got hurt or his agent wants him out of that market. Toronto has longer contracts so the team is what it is for 2 years unless they blow it up. It’s a good team and the GM is smart. But Its in Canada and Drake is a pain. I settled on the Bucks because it’s an easier act to follow Kidd/Punty than Casey and it’s in the US.

[closg00]

Rob Plink: Playoffs Have Revealed Young Players Can Be Difference Makers

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/249913/Rob-Pelinka-Playoffs-Have-Revealed-Young-Players-Can-Be-Difference-Makers

Something the Wizards have never understood

[TGW]

Watch out for the Bucks. Budhy’s going to make them sing.

this X1000

Bud's offense is free flowing and beautiful. My guess is that Antekoupou plays the quick 4 and Middleton plays the 3. They're going to trade Bledsoe and Parker for a distributing point guard and be set.

[gtn130]

Watch out for the Bucks. Budhy’s going to make them sing.

I think Budenholzer isn't doing himself any favors taking that job, the Bucks are worse off than the Wizards from a roster and cap perspective. The Raptors must not have been willing to extend an offer because there's no way I'd pick the Milwaukee gig over Toronto.

I do think Milwaukee's roster is a bit overrated.

Jabari is a zero on defense and needs to seriously work on his body. He's been hurt, so it's understandable that he's behind, but he's alarmingly bad defensively.

Brogdon isn't going to improve much - he was an old rookie.

Thon is 90% a bust. He's good defensively, but he can't rebound.

Eric Bledsoe - terrible

All that being said, I'd probably still take the Bucks' overall situation over the Wizards. Giannis is transcendent, and his salary is actually going to wind up being a huge bargain. Middleton is also a great piece. The Wizards are in cap hell, and the EG + Scott Brooks brain trust is a major problem.

[payitforward]

Just watched an interesting Draft Combine TV interview with the new Atlanta head coach Lloyd Pierce. He's exceptionally smart, organized, strategic, communicative, clear & energetic. I'm guessing he'll make an outstanding HC.

Given Atlanta's young roster, very attractive salary structure, 4 picks #36 & above this year, it makes me wonder how long it'll take them to put us definitively in their rear view mirror -- the way Boston, Philly & Indy & have done.

Probably take them 2-3 years. I don't anticipate it taking much longer than that.

[Dark Faze]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/249924/Warriors-Interested-In-Buying-Early-2nd-Round-Pick

super capped out team with an elite roster and still talking about buying second rounders

meanwhile in Washington...

[I_Like_Dirt]

I disagree. I'd much rather the Milwaukee situation.

First of all, they have the second most valuable asset in the league in Antetokounmpo (only Davis is more valuable). Secondly, they didn't win 59 games last year so the threshold for improvement is much easier to meet. Third, Milwaukee was perhaps the most poorly coached team in the league, doing so many things on offense and defense in an unconventional and ineffective manner. Just getting them to play modern defense instead of their scrambling/trapping scheme should be a big help. Finally, Milwaukee's core is quite young. They aren't relying on any players who are on the wrong side of their peak (like Lowry).

I see no reason why the core of Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Brogdon can't win 46-52 games a year for the next 2 years, and then take it to a new level once a bunch of their bad contracts (Snell, Dellavedova, Henson) expire. There's also some wild cards with Bledsoe (can he revive his form from 2 years ago?), Parker (can he learn to defend?) and Thon Maker (is he any good?) that could provide some upside surprise.

Milwaukee needs a massive roster overhaul. They can keep Giannis and Middleton. Everyone else can go. And even Middleton should see his role reduced and refined. I think a lot of the problems they saw last season were wrongly placed on coaching. I mean, I don't think they had the best coaching or anything, and Bud is absolutely an upgrade for them, but the reality is that their roster has 2 big problems: their passing is sub-par at pretty much every position other than Giannis, and they are loaded with guys who rely a lot on their own athleticism/skills and have issues with team-oriented fundamentals. The few fundamental-type players they have really aren't very good.

I do think the Bucks, like the Wizards, are in a state where they could turn things around pretty dramatically pretty quickly, not unlike the Raptors did when they dumped Colangelo for Ujiri. Giannis is a wonderful star player and while Middleton isn't amazing, he's good enough as a 2nd guy when Giannis is your 1st guy. They have a really, really poorly built team, though, and until they overhaul the roster (probably means changing GMs) I'm not particularly optimistic in their ability to do that just as I'm not optimistic in the Wizards suddenly figure out how to build a team around Wall, Beal and Porter.

[Dark Faze]

It's a shame as well that we never tried to get D'Antoni back in the day. He's consistently been an elite coach. His only big blemish was
not convincing the Lakers to play his brand of ball---Nash was broken and Pau Gasol cried about being forced to shoot threes. The Knicks were actually relevant when he was there.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Even on the Lakers, I think D'Antoni had them overachieving. I think that was more on the Lakers overestimating the talent they actually had on that roster. Kobe was old, Dwight was done, Nash was finished. They were playing guys like Darius Morris, Earl Clark, Chris Duhon, etc. Their roster was either old and busted, or terrible, or both. They dumped him after a season where Kobe missed the entire season so the team cratered, hired a truly bad coach and got even worse.