The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[Mjee]

I watched the game today ... I don’t think he totally wowed James Jones and Robert Sarver. Yes he was good but not great ! I just can’t see them using our franchise’s FIRST EVER number one pick on a European prospect when we have a generational center in our own backyard.

[Bob8]

and in what interests of Kings and Hawks would be to say they won’t take Doncic? they don’t want to get offers for him? this story is as bogus as that how Doncic won’t come in Nba if some teams draft him. imho not going to Kings and Hawks is in his best interest, but 1 month before draft to somebody openly say, what they will do is just hard to believe.

If Doncic was absolutely the best prospect at that spot by a wide margin, this story would not make sense. But this draft has a lot of good players in it. Any one of 8 or so could end up being the best player in this draft. So there is no reason to mess with drafting a player that doesn't want to play for you when you have plenty of other great players to choose from. This will especially be true if Porter has good workouts and his back tests out ok. Bagley and Porter would look attractive there. So will Bamba with that wingspan. The Bamba as a shooter narrative is growing now too. We are hearing "Gobert with a three point shoot." Things are going to tighten up going into this draft.

Sure, but why would you openly say that you won’t take him? Hawks can get something from Memphis and still take the player they want.

And something doesn’t add up, no way that draft is that good. There would be some serious busts in top8 for sure. Luka might not have the highest ceiling, but his floor is for sure very high. It’s kinda illogical, to publicly discard some options. I believe we will hear many bogus stories in next month.

if Suns doesn’t draft him, I hope he can somehow end in New York or Chicago, but honestly cannot see that happen. Maybe Memphis if they trade up. But I’m afraid the most likely scenario is that Divac will draft him. In that case he should maybe really reconsiderd to withdraw from draft. Real will give him very genarious offer after what happened today. And next year the lottery has new rules.

[JMac1]

Its funny. I wonder how many posts have been about what Ayton can't do versus what he can do?

1) Ayton shoots a very nice 70% at the rim by dunking over smaller less athletic college players (80% of his highlights)
2) Ayton shoots a very nice 50% from mid-range to just inside the three point line by shooting over shorter less athletic players.
3) Ayton is very good with his right hand ... not so good with his left
4) Ayton is a pretty good free throw shooter for a center at 73%
5) Ayton probably one of the best college rebounders since DeMarcus Cousins
6) He runs pretty darn good for a big guy
7) Ayton excels at being tall and muscle-ly looking.

A study in condemnation with faint praise. BTW. 97% of the NBA players will be smaller and less athletic than him.

Thanks for saving me a post. Lebron James got by in high school and the pros doing just that And Kobe and Jordan and VC and Shaq etc etc...People act like its a bad thing, hilarious.

[jcsunsfan]

1) Ayton shoots a very nice 70% at the rim by dunking over smaller less athletic college players (80% of his highlights)
2) Ayton shoots a very nice 50% from mid-range to just inside the three point line by shooting over shorter less athletic players.
3) Ayton is very good with his right hand ... not so good with his left
4) Ayton is a pretty good free throw shooter for a center at 73%
5) Ayton probably one of the best college rebounders since DeMarcus Cousins
6) He runs pretty darn good for a big guy
7) Ayton excels at being tall and muscle-ly looking.

A study in condemnation with faint praise. BTW. 97% of the NBA players will be smaller and less athletic than him.

True ... only because I have heard about athletic freaks that we should draft year-after-year. How if they could just use their athleticism to play defense and just improve their three point shooting a bit and they will be an all-star. Yeah I'm jaded on the one-and-dones who have potential and bust. In reality here's what Ayton will face in the NBA every night by guys who might be shorter but can jump higher and have longer arms.

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=21543118

He got blocked once? I am shocked! One play?

Watch on YouTube

[TheLogician]

Listen to Bilas at 3:53. Ayton leapfrogged the consensus #1 HS player in Bagley, who could go #2.

Watch on YouTube

[bwgood77]

That's because he was a senior that year dominating...he knocked out the undefeated Towns/Booker/WCS Wildcats in the final four. I ignored his score anyway because I wanted to compare freshman and people around the same age.

I try to look at things with some context, though I know you'd like to throw it out to fit your agenda.

I've seen some other cherry picking too trying to discount stats but the stats are used the same way for everyone....and there may be some surprising results.

You also have to take into consideration that this isn't a widely used stat, being touted by the dude who invented it and it's got some strange, unclear calculations going on.

I tried to provide some context with my post. I'm not sure what value it brings over DPM, DWS, or DRtg - which all have their own flaws. The fact that it's really hard to find an NBA big man with a negative DPIPM is odd to me (the one I recall from the spreadsheet was Marreese Speights). Also the fact that arguable 4 of the top 5 players in the NBA don't have positive DPIPM makes me question how necessary a metric it is for NBA success.

Well you are talking about 4 of the top offensive players. All the advanced metrics show LeBron has been a terrible defender this year and it's never been a strength of Curry and Harden. I mean in the spreadsheet you linked it's obvious their net impact is still among the highest in the league because their OPIPM is so high, so combined, they still are that high.

You are right that it's not necessary for someone to have a positive impact without defense, and I definitely think Ayton will have a positive impact even if he is a poor defender, because his offense will be so good.

The fact that it is really hard to find a big man with a negative DPIPM in the NBA, combined with the fact that Ayton DID have a negative one is a bit alarming though...particularly against college competition.

I agree that the calculation is pretty complicated. It's been pretty widely accepted though. I mean if you look at most of the people who grade out the best on offense and defense in the NBA, it looks fairly accurate to me.

[bigfoot]

A study in condemnation with faint praise. BTW. 97% of the NBA players will be smaller and less athletic than him.

True ... only because I have heard about athletic freaks that we should draft year-after-year. How if they could just use their athleticism to play defense and just improve their three point shooting a bit and they will be an all-star. Yeah I'm jaded on the one-and-dones who have potential and bust. In reality here's what Ayton will face in the NBA every night by guys who might be shorter but can jump higher and have longer arms.

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=21543118

He got blocked once? I am shocked! One play?

Watch on YouTube

One very important example. Playing against someone his size he willing gives up deep post position. Doesn't handle the ball very well when backing down the opponent and gets no elevation on his fade away jump shot. Leaves a lot to be desired because he will be playing against size every night in the NBA

[Mjee]

Listen to Bilas at 3:53. Ayton leapfrogged the consensus #1 HS player in Bagley, who could go #2.

Watch on YouTube

It’s not rocket science .... you take Ayton and run !!!

[GeraldsGreenery]

Ayton’s recent snap. listen closely and you’ll hear them talking about TJ Warren

Read on Twitter

[lilfishi22]

Only just caught up on all the posts over the past 24 hours or so. Great discussions and the race card was only brought up once, awesome job guys

I've done more scout report reading, highlight/game watching and podcast listening over the weekend and I still lean towards Doncic although the idea of a Ayton/Booker pairing intrigues me a lot.

The past month or so I've argued that there's potential for the league to be moving back towards integrating modern dominant NBA bigs back into elite offense but it just hasn't happened just yet. The reason it hasn't happened yet is because the quality of the bigs, with modern NBA guard skills have only just started appearing in the past half decade or so just when the old Spurs grind-style offense became largely ineffective. 10 years ago, there weren't any super mobile, 3pt shooting big men with guard skills who can comfortably switch on the perimeter and also block shots. I think the Embiids, Davis's and Cousins/KAT to varying extents could be integrated into an elite system like the one that Houston and GS runs because they have the shooting abilities, passing and face up skills that would allow them to keep up with the pace these elite teams want to run.

But what they absolutely need to be able to do aside from keeping up on offense, is being able to play that switch heavy and rim protecting defense. Ayton imo can defend the perimeter fairly well but my concern is his defense at the rim and weak side help. I think it's too easy to say that he wasn't put in a good position to protect the rim in college because I don't think I saw much in the way of play development recognition especially from the weakside. It's not un-teachable but it just shows that his mind doesn't work in the same way that an AD, Capela or Embiid does or perhaps it just hasn't developed that far along just yet. That to me is a seriously limiting factor especially if his offense isn't absolutely elite. I think his offense will be good and he has great foundational skills already on that end which can be further developed but while he may have been further along offensively than some elite bigs of the past, it doesn't necessarily mean he has what it takes mentally (BBIQ, offensive awareness) to get his offensive game to an elite level. It's been said that Ayton has only been playing basketball for 5 years and that kind of thing scares me a lot especially since another C with potential we drafted in 2013 only had about 7-8 years of playing basketball.

That's where things start to separate with Doncic for me. The guy has had his hands on a basketball since he was a baby. He's had an ex-pro basketballer father and the fundamentals that he's played with since he was a kid absolutely still shows today. Then when you consider the high level basketball he's been playing since young and hitting the professional level at 16 says a lot about his basketball smarts. Throw in the fact that he has an NBA body (average but not great athleticism), has great fundamentals in all facets of the game, the room to develop even further and that he plays a position and a style that dominates the NBA today speaks volume for me. His weaknesses (he definitely has a number) compared to Ayton's is less significant to me because of his basketball foundations, current abilities and his basketball mind which leads me to think that they can be easier to hide or overcome.

I think both guys are a can't miss prospect and they are very close to me so just because I'm leaning towards Doncic doesn't mean I'll be disappointed going with Ayton or that I think Ayton is terrible.

[JMac1]

Backing up his truck <beep beep beep>,

Truck driver: excuse me sir, where do I drop these?

Jmac1: Man, I have been waiting for you for almost a week, glad you finally made it. drop them here in this forum:

Trucker: Okay, there are a lot of them bub. Who is this guy anyway?

Former UCLA and St. John’s head coach Steve Lavin has seen his fair share of college basketball talent over the years. However, he’s of the belief that Arizona freshman center Deandre Ayton is a transformational type talent that will change basketball.

“He’s going to transform the way we look at the center position,” Lavin told DieHards.

"He's a monster," Barkley said, via TMZ. "He's the best college player I've seen in the last 20 years. He's unbelievable."

“You’ve seen Deandre Ayton, he’s ridiculous,” Bilas said to the panel. “He’s Hall of Fame good.”

It’s Ayton’s raw ability that has the ESPN analyst advocating for his top selection.

“He has breathtaking talent and athleticism,” Fraschilla said.

“You just look at him and say ‘oh, my God, I believe in evolution,’” Walton said during UA’s win over Texas A&M in Phoenix in early December. “He’s the best player at this level since Shaquille O’Neal.”

ESPN’s Max Kellerman echoed Barkley’s statements, tagging Ayton as another “unicorn” to be added to the NBA.

“DeAndre Ayton of Arizona. 7’1, 250. Chisled, fast, quick, and nimble. Touch around the basket with a nice shooting stroke with range. Shaq with a shot.”

Stephen A. Smith says Phoenix shouldn't entertain any trade deals and should take DeAndre Ayton No. 1

[King4Day]

The growing consensus among NBA decision-makers in attendance at Stark Arena in Belgrade is that the teams drafting behind the Phoenix Suns at No. 1, the Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks are likely to pass on European prodigy in favor of American frontcourt players.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23556715/nba-prospect-luka-doncic-helps-real-madrid-win-euroleague-title

I wonder if this could mean a deal to 3 so we can draft Doncic and get assets

[TheLogician]

You can doubt his intangibles but to me it's a matter of his offense being ahead of his defense right now. I'm glad there is a healthy amount of skepticism to fuel him.

[lilfishi22]

Post offense..

The league just empowers the drive too much it also lead to the perimeter shots being less challenged because defenders may sag off to prevent the drive.

In effect, you already lost the possession once you want to run it at the low post. It takes a lot of time to set it up. The entry pass is an obstacle course. And its a heavily challenged shot. The defense wont double and if they do, the center will have to throw another pass across the court that is again an obstacle course for deflections. When the shooter catch it, it may be covered or have only a few seconds to take the shot off.

Post offense may not be bad. But the league has designed it to be the worst option. There are far better options on offense at the perimeter or drives. Currently the trend that is being talked about is the mid range since teams have tried to abandon this zone on D to take away 3s and drives

BTW love your contributions. Always nice to hear from an outsiders perspective especially one that isn't just "Doncic/Ayton is great - should totally draft him!"

[JMac1]

You can doubt his intangibles but to me it's a matter of his offense being ahead of his defense right now. I'm glad there is a healthy amount of skepticism to fuel him.

Never thought about that. Good point.

[lilfishi22]

Backing up his truck <beep beep beep>,

Truck driver: excuse me sir, where do I drop these?

Jmac1: Man, I have been waiting for you for almost a week, glad you finally made it. drop them here in this forum:

Trucker: Okay, there are a lot of them bub. Who is this guy anyway?

Former UCLA and St. John’s head coach Steve Lavin has seen his fair share of college basketball talent over the years. However, he’s of the belief that Arizona freshman center Deandre Ayton is a transformational type talent that will change basketball.

“He’s going to transform the way we look at the center position,” Lavin told DieHards.

"He's a monster," Barkley said, via TMZ. "He's the best college player I've seen in the last 20 years. He's unbelievable."

“You’ve seen Deandre Ayton, he’s ridiculous,” Bilas said to the panel. “He’s Hall of Fame good.”

It’s Ayton’s raw ability that has the ESPN analyst advocating for his top selection.

“He has breathtaking talent and athleticism,” Fraschilla said.

“You just look at him and say ‘oh, my God, I believe in evolution,’” Walton said during UA’s win over Texas A&M in Phoenix in early December. “He’s the best player at this level since Shaquille O’Neal.”

ESPN’s Max Kellerman echoed Barkley’s statements, tagging Ayton as another “unicorn” to be added to the NBA.

“DeAndre Ayton of Arizona. 7’1, 250. Chisled, fast, quick, and nimble. Touch around the basket with a nice shooting stroke with range. Shaq with a shot.”

Stephen A. Smith says Phoenix shouldn't entertain any trade deals and should take DeAndre Ayton No. 1

Great quotes

Nothing on Doncic's end?

[Mjee]

Backing up his truck <beep beep beep>,

Truck driver: excuse me sir, where do I drop these?

Jmac1: Man, I have been waiting for you for almost a week, glad you finally made it. drop them here in this forum:

Trucker: Okay, there are a lot of them bub. Who is this guy anyway?

Former UCLA and St. John’s head coach Steve Lavin has seen his fair share of college basketball talent over the years. However, he’s of the belief that Arizona freshman center Deandre Ayton is a transformational type talent that will change basketball.

“He’s going to transform the way we look at the center position,” Lavin told DieHards.

"He's a monster," Barkley said, via TMZ. "He's the best college player I've seen in the last 20 years. He's unbelievable."

“You’ve seen Deandre Ayton, he’s ridiculous,” Bilas said to the panel. “He’s Hall of Fame good.”

It’s Ayton’s raw ability that has the ESPN analyst advocating for his top selection.

“He has breathtaking talent and athleticism,” Fraschilla said.

“You just look at him and say ‘oh, my God, I believe in evolution,’” Walton said during UA’s win over Texas A&M in Phoenix in early December. “He’s the best player at this level since Shaquille O’Neal.”

ESPN’s Max Kellerman echoed Barkley’s statements, tagging Ayton as another “unicorn” to be added to the NBA.

“DeAndre Ayton of Arizona. 7’1, 250. Chisled, fast, quick, and nimble. Touch around the basket with a nice shooting stroke with range. Shaq with a shot.”

Stephen A. Smith says Phoenix shouldn't entertain any trade deals and should take DeAndre Ayton No. 1

Great post !!!

[Saberestar]

Ayton’s recent snap. listen closely and you’ll hear them talking about TJ Warren

Read on Twitter

Anyone understands what he is saying?

[JMac1]

Backing up his truck <beep beep beep>,

Truck driver: excuse me sir, where do I drop these?

Jmac1: Man, I have been waiting for you for almost a week, glad you finally made it. drop them here in this forum:

Trucker: Okay, there are a lot of them bub. Who is this guy anyway?

Former UCLA and St. John’s head coach Steve Lavin has seen his fair share of college basketball talent over the years. However, he’s of the belief that Arizona freshman center Deandre Ayton is a transformational type talent that will change basketball.

“He’s going to transform the way we look at the center position,” Lavin told DieHards.

"He's a monster," Barkley said, via TMZ. "He's the best college player I've seen in the last 20 years. He's unbelievable."

“You’ve seen Deandre Ayton, he’s ridiculous,” Bilas said to the panel. “He’s Hall of Fame good.”

It’s Ayton’s raw ability that has the ESPN analyst advocating for his top selection.

“He has breathtaking talent and athleticism,” Fraschilla said.

“You just look at him and say ‘oh, my God, I believe in evolution,’” Walton said during UA’s win over Texas A&M in Phoenix in early December. “He’s the best player at this level since Shaquille O’Neal.”

ESPN’s Max Kellerman echoed Barkley’s statements, tagging Ayton as another “unicorn” to be added to the NBA.

“DeAndre Ayton of Arizona. 7’1, 250. Chisled, fast, quick, and nimble. Touch around the basket with a nice shooting stroke with range. Shaq with a shot.”

Stephen A. Smith says Phoenix shouldn't entertain any trade deals and should take DeAndre Ayton No. 1

Great quotes

Nothing on Doncic's end?

My bad. I’m on the Ayton train. I do know you can load them up for him as well. Don’t know if they’d give you the chills like those quotes though.

[Jkam31]

and in what interests of Kings and Hawks would be to say they won’t take Doncic? they don’t want to get offers for him? this story is as bogus as that how Doncic won’t come in Nba if some teams draft him. imho not going to Kings and Hawks is in his best interest, but 1 month before draft to somebody openly say, what they will do is just hard to believe.

Ya I’m what world does a team telling others teams ya we’re not drafting him brings no good to them.

And neither team will pass, Atlanta doesn’t even have an nba starting guard on there roster why would they draft a big


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