The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[MrMiyagi]

That's because he was a senior that year dominating...he knocked out the undefeated Towns/Booker/WCS Wildcats in the final four. I ignored his score anyway because I wanted to compare freshman and people around the same age.

I try to look at things with some context, though I know you'd like to throw it out to fit your agenda.

I've seen some other cherry picking too trying to discount stats but the stats are used the same way for everyone....and there may be some surprising results.

You also have to take into consideration that this isn't a widely used stat, being touted by the dude who invented it and it's got some strange, unclear calculations going on.

I tried to provide some context with my post. I'm not sure what value it brings over DPM, DWS, or DRtg - which all have their own flaws. The fact that it's really hard to find an NBA big man with a negative DPIPM is odd to me (the one I recall from the spreadsheet was Marreese Speights). Also the fact that arguable 4 of the top 5 players in the NBA don't have positive DPIPM makes me question how necessary a metric it is for NBA success.

Well you are talking about 4 of the top offensive players. All the advanced metrics show LeBron has been a terrible defender this year and it's never been a strength of Curry and Harden. I mean in the spreadsheet you linked it's obvious their net impact is still among the highest in the league because their OPIPM is so high, so combined, they still are that high.

You are right that it's not necessary for someone to have a positive impact without defense, and I definitely think Ayton will have a positive impact even if he is a poor defender, because his offense will be so good.

The fact that it is really hard to find a big man with a negative DPIPM in the NBA, combined with the fact that Ayton DID have a negative one is a bit alarming though...particularly against college competition.

I agree that the calculation is pretty complicated. It's been pretty widely accepted though. I mean if you look at most of the people who grade out the best on offense and defense in the NBA, it looks fairly accurate to me.

I've never seen anyone reference this calculation other than this dude on his own website/twitter account. Maybe forum goers are adopting it, but I'm not buying it, especially as a predictive model.

[Villalobos]

And neither team will pass, Atlanta doesn’t even have an nba starting guard on there roster why would they draft a big

imo because garbage teams usually draft BPA and only they know who they consider BPA at #3.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if one or more of JJJr or Bamba or Trae Young or Wendell Carter or Mikal Bridges end up better than Doncic. Draft's a crapshoot.

[AtheJ415]

Post offense..

The league just empowers the drive too much it also lead to the perimeter shots being less challenged because defenders may sag off to prevent the drive.

In effect, you already lost the possession once you want to run it at the low post. It takes a lot of time to set it up. The entry pass is an obstacle course. And its a heavily challenged shot. The defense wont double and if they do, the center will have to throw another pass across the court that is again an obstacle course for deflections. When the shooter catch it, it may be covered or have only a few seconds to take the shot off.

Post offense may not be bad. But the league has designed it to be the worst option. There are far better options on offense at the perimeter or drives. Currently the trend that is being talked about is the mid range since teams have tried to abandon this zone on D to take away 3s and drives

BTW love your contributions. Always nice to hear from an outsiders perspective especially one that isn't just "Doncic/Ayton is great - should totally draft him!"

I think all of this is valid, but at the same time I see Ayton as much more than a post up big. I see him as an elite PnR finisher in both pop and roll man scenarios. If he ends up being able to shoot the 3, he can also pull rim protectors away from the hoop and allow a 5 out 0 in type of offense.

[lilfishi22]

Post offense..

The league just empowers the drive too much it also lead to the perimeter shots being less challenged because defenders may sag off to prevent the drive.

In effect, you already lost the possession once you want to run it at the low post. It takes a lot of time to set it up. The entry pass is an obstacle course. And its a heavily challenged shot. The defense wont double and if they do, the center will have to throw another pass across the court that is again an obstacle course for deflections. When the shooter catch it, it may be covered or have only a few seconds to take the shot off.

Post offense may not be bad. But the league has designed it to be the worst option. There are far better options on offense at the perimeter or drives. Currently the trend that is being talked about is the mid range since teams have tried to abandon this zone on D to take away 3s and drives

BTW love your contributions. Always nice to hear from an outsiders perspective especially one that isn't just "Doncic/Ayton is great - should totally draft him!"

I think all of this is valid, but at the same time I see Ayton as much more than a post up big. I see him as an elite PnR finisher in both pop and roll man scenarios. If he ends up being able to shoot the 3, he can also pull rim protectors away from the hoop and allow a 5 out 0 in type of offense.

I definitely don't think Ayton is an only post-up guy. It's probably his best strength but not his only strength. He has good foundations for 3PT shooting at NBA range and he has some ball handling skills. But he still needs a lot of work in putting these individual abilities together so he can attack the close outs and be able to make the right decision once he's past his initial defender. But making that leap between having those individual skills and being able to put it together to use a a high level are two completely different things. The varying degree at which these individual skills is put together successfully is the difference between those who come and go in the league, those who become average NBA players and those who become elite players.

[MrMiyagi]

Are we analyzing Ayton's defense wrong? Should we be comparing him more to wing prospects than big man prospects? Re-watching some of these games, I don't think I quite realized how often he's on the perimeter defending. While I'm not sold on him being an elite wing defender next level (he's not checking the opposing team's best ball-handler or perimeter player, mostly stretch bigs), I thought it'd be interesting to look at nonetheless.

Ayton
98.8 DRtg 2.1 DWS 4.0 DPM

Mikal Bridges
98.2 DRtg 2.4 DWS 4.4 DPM

Miles Bridges
95.5 DRtg 2.2 DWS 3.5 DPM

Zhaire Smith (a 6'4 guard, I know, but he's being touted as a perimeter defender)
95.1 DRtg 2.2 DWS 6.4 DPM

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
101.8 DRtg 1.9 DWS 3.6 DPM

Shake Milton
100.4 DRtg 1.3 DWS 1.4 DPM

Jacob Evans
88.3 DRtg 3.1 DWS 6.1 DPM

[J_Magic]

Question Suns fan...if the Magic offered you 3 first round draft pick (includes this years #6 pick) for the #1 pick (Ayton)...would you do it?
Also, hypothetically...let's say Doncic drops to #6 too. You get Doncic and 2 more first round picks from Orlando...Unprotected.

[lilfishi22]

Question Suns fan...if the Magic offered you 3 first round draft pick (includes this years #6 pick) for the #1 pick (Ayton)...would you do it?
Also, hypothetically...let's say Doncic drops to #6 too. You get Doncic and 2 more first round picks from Orlando...Unprotected.

I doubt Doncic would be available but he would *have* to be there for me to consider this. Future 1st round picks are great but that's two in the bush and I'd rather have a Ayton/Doncic in hand now

[J_Magic]

Question Suns fan...if the Magic offered you 3 first round draft pick (includes this years #6 pick) for the #1 pick (Ayton)...would you do it?
Also, hypothetically...let's say Doncic drops to #6 too. You get Doncic and 2 more first round picks from Orlando...Unprotected.

I doubt Doncic would be available but he would *have* to be there for me to consider this. Future 1st round picks are great but that's two in the bush and I'd rather have a Ayton/Doncic in hand now

Yes, this trade happens would only happen once Doncic is confirmed.
Magic have always done well with a center in the lottery.

[Phnxsports]

Question Suns fan...if the Magic offered you 3 first round draft pick (includes this years #6 pick) for the #1 pick (Ayton)...would you do it?
Also, hypothetically...let's say Doncic drops to #6 too. You get Doncic and 2 more first round picks from Orlando...Unprotected.

I would say no. Suns are at the point where extra first rounders are becoming an issue. There is just to much youth at this point. So much so there is a lot of belief the 16 in this years draft may be dealt. I am all for the Suns even overpaying a little if needed and trying to make a move up this year back into the top 8 if possible as one last shot at adding young talent. Go all in and get two solid youngsters this draft and sacrifice the Bucks and Heat picks.

[bwgood77]

Question Suns fan...if the Magic offered you 3 first round draft pick (includes this years #6 pick) for the #1 pick (Ayton)...would you do it?
Also, hypothetically...let's say Doncic drops to #6 too. You get Doncic and 2 more first round picks from Orlando...Unprotected.

I doubt Doncic would be available but he would *have* to be there for me to consider this. Future 1st round picks are great but that's two in the bush and I'd rather have a Ayton/Doncic in hand now

Yes, this trade happens would only happen once Doncic is confirmed.
Magic have always done well with a center in the lottery.

Doncic plus two future unprotected firsts for Ayton? That's a no brainer yes for me. Who knows what our FO would do though? If there wasn't the local pressure of Ayton, and an owner who went to UA, I'd be very surprised if they would turn something like that down.

[lilfishi22]

Question Suns fan...if the Magic offered you 3 first round draft pick (includes this years #6 pick) for the #1 pick (Ayton)...would you do it?
Also, hypothetically...let's say Doncic drops to #6 too. You get Doncic and 2 more first round picks from Orlando...Unprotected.

I would say no. Suns are at the point where extra first rounders are becoming an issue. There is just to much youth at this point. So much so there is a lot of belief the 16 in this years draft may be dealt. I am all for the Suns even overpaying a little if needed and trying to make a move up this year back into the top 8 if possible.

I agree with you about not needing more youth but they could be used as assets for future S&T's or even to move up in *this* draft. I don't think we need more youth but 1st round picks are always moveable and if we're getting the guy we want anyway (assuming Doncic is that guy), then why not?

[Phnxsports]

Question Suns fan...if the Magic offered you 3 first round draft pick (includes this years #6 pick) for the #1 pick (Ayton)...would you do it?
Also, hypothetically...let's say Doncic drops to #6 too. You get Doncic and 2 more first round picks from Orlando...Unprotected.

I would say no. Suns are at the point where extra first rounders are becoming an issue. There is just to much youth at this point. So much so there is a lot of belief the 16 in this years draft may be dealt. I am all for the Suns even overpaying a little if needed and trying to make a move up this year back into the top 8 if possible.

I agree with you about not needing more youth but they could be used as assets for future S&T's or even to move up in *this* draft. I don't think we need more youth but 1st round picks are always moveable and if we're getting the guy we want anyway (assuming Doncic is that guy), then why not?

I am all for moving up in this draft with what we have. What worries me about the Suns being sellers and obtaining future firsts is you really don't know what your getting. Especially with the new lottery rules that go in effect next year. Three first rounders from a team like Orlando would mean you get one next year, 2021, 2023 etc. To much uncertainty. Go all in this year and offer what you need to to get back in the top 8. This draft is worth it.

[GDFTony]

I would say no. Suns are at the point where extra first rounders are becoming an issue. There is just to much youth at this point. So much so there is a lot of belief the 16 in this years draft may be dealt. I am all for the Suns even overpaying a little if needed and trying to make a move up this year back into the top 8 if possible.

I agree with you about not needing more youth but they could be used as assets for future S&T's or even to move up in *this* draft. I don't think we need more youth but 1st round picks are always moveable and if we're getting the guy we want anyway (assuming Doncic is that guy), then why not?

I am all for moving up in this draft with what we have. What worries me about the Suns being sellers and obtaining future firsts is you really don't know what your getting. Especially with the new lottery rules that go in effect next year. Three first rounders from a team like Orlando would mean you get one next year, 2021, 2023 etc. To much uncertainty. Go all in this year and offer what you need to to get back in the top 8. This draft is worth it.

Agreed plus McDounough doesn't have the luxury of future first round picks. And that's what scares me about a possible KAT trade.

[JMac1]

Watch on YouTube

Back to the basket it dump it in the post

Oh!...so bouncy

[JMac1]

Watch on YouTube

More. Shows his misses at well. Look at his stroke and quick release

[lilfishi22]

I would say no. Suns are at the point where extra first rounders are becoming an issue. There is just to much youth at this point. So much so there is a lot of belief the 16 in this years draft may be dealt. I am all for the Suns even overpaying a little if needed and trying to make a move up this year back into the top 8 if possible.

I agree with you about not needing more youth but they could be used as assets for future S&T's or even to move up in *this* draft. I don't think we need more youth but 1st round picks are always moveable and if we're getting the guy we want anyway (assuming Doncic is that guy), then why not?

I am all for moving up in this draft with what we have. What worries me about the Suns being sellers and obtaining future firsts is you really don't know what your getting. Especially with the new lottery rules that go in effect next year. Three first rounders from a team like Orlando would mean you get one next year, 2021, 2023 etc. To much uncertainty. Go all in this year and offer what you need to to get back in the top 8. This draft is worth it.

But it doesn't matter what they are because they are still positive value and in this trade we're getting value for nothing because we still end up with the player we want without giving up anything other than the privilege to pick that player we want #1.

One could be #15 for all I care, we still get Doncic and we can move that #15.

[Sunzgunz]

Question Suns fan...if the Magic offered you 3 first round draft pick (includes this years #6 pick) for the #1 pick (Ayton)...would you do it?
Also, hypothetically...let's say Doncic drops to #6 too. You get Doncic and 2 more first round picks from Orlando...Unprotected.

If Doncic was at 6; in a heartbeat!

[DirtyDez]

Reason why I don’t want him to add more weight. Before adding significant bulk he was a natural athlete that could run the floor like no other big. I think he might’ve added a little much and wasn’t ready for how it affected his movement (had never lifted before college). It was hardly noticeable but he looked more lumbering than he did in HS. I’ve only seen him in a suit recently but he looks thinner IMO. I think his playing weight was closer to 265 than listed 250.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

If Ayton's BPA at 1, we can't trade that pick for anything. Kid wants to be here. It's crazy good luck.

[thamadkant]

I doubt Doncic would be available but he would *have* to be there for me to consider this. Future 1st round picks are great but that's two in the bush and I'd rather have a Ayton/Doncic in hand now

Yes, this trade happens would only happen once Doncic is confirmed.
Magic have always done well with a center in the lottery.

Doncic plus two future unprotected firsts for Ayton? That's a no brainer yes for me. Who knows what our FO would do though? If there wasn't the local pressure of Ayton, and an owner who went to UA, I'd be very surprised if they would turn something like that down.

And you just mentioned why I'm prepping for Ayton and justifying him for Pick 1.

Ayton is Sarver's pick and his visit to watch Doncic is just to see what he is missing out on.

Sarver is UA alumni, desperate for some sort of resurgence from the local community... Etc.


I believe Sarver has told Gambo that he's picking Ayton hence why Gambo acted the way he did with Doncic.