'17-'18 POY discussion

[dhsilv2]

In what sense?

25/5.7/6.6 on 58 TS% is a solid series. Yes, he struggled to get to the free throw line (averaged 2 attempts per game) but he was still having a big impact on the game. In fact I think he played better than this years "Regular season MVP" in James Harden.

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You have come off as one of the better posters on this board and you respond with his points totals for a 7 game stretch?

That was the only point I was making with my statement as it was directed as an analysis of just point totals and the question of scoring consistency. You also went off onto James and I really don't want to engage in that discussion at the moment as the focus was just on curry and his consistency.

[Outside]

I'm obviously a Curry supporter, but I consider scoring consistency a valid criticism. It's not the only thing, and it's not disqualifying from his candidacy for POY or FMVP or whatever, but it's a checkmark in the negative column.

It seems a natural effect based on the type of player that he is. As far as I can think of, he's the only elite player in the current league and one of the very few from all-time perspective who doesn't have some kind of dominating physical advantage -- size, speed, strength, whatever. (Nash and Stockton are others that come to mind.) That alone means he can't use that physical advantage in a way that, say, LeBron or Durant can to get easy buckets. Plus Curry's greatest asset is shooting from distance, and that inherently has more variability compared to scoring in other ways. Curry is going to have games when his shot isn't falling, and he can't overpower opponents to get easy buckets when that happens.

So you have a guy who can set the finals record for made threes one game and go 1-10 on threes the next. That doesn't mean he doesn't still have good production in other areas and significant positive secondary impact when his shot is off, but he's shown that tendency to have bad shooting games, and it's fair to criticize him for it.

[clyde21]

I'm obviously a Curry supporter, but I consider scoring consistency a valid criticism. It's not the only thing, and it's not disqualifying from his candidacy for POY or FMVP or whatever, but it's a checkmark in the negative column.

It seems a natural effect based on the type of player that he is. As far as I can think of, he's the only elite player in the current league and one of the very few from all-time perspective who doesn't have some kind of dominating physical advantage -- size, speed, strength, whatever. (Nash and Stockton are others that come to mind.) That alone means he can't use that physical advantage in a way that, say, LeBron or Durant can to get easy buckets. Plus Curry's greatest asset is shooting from distance, and that inherently has more variability compared to scoring in other ways. Curry is going to have games when his shot isn't falling, and he can't overpower opponents to get easy buckets when that happens.

So you have a guy who can set the finals record for made threes one game and go 1-10 on threes the next. That doesn't mean he doesn't still have good production in other areas and significant positive secondary impact when his shot is off, but he's shown that tendency to have bad shooting games, and it's fair to criticize him for it.

But the numbers don't really back that up. Again, the last two seasons against the Cavs in the finals he scored 26+ points in 7 out of 9 games. How is that not consistent?

I do think he needs to utilize mid-range and the rim a lot more often when he's not feeling it from deep. He shot an absurd 60% from mid range and 67% at the rim so if he can rely more on those when his outside shot falling, it'll go a long way in dispelling these narratives, IMO.

[Outside]

I'm obviously a Curry supporter, but I consider scoring consistency a valid criticism. It's not the only thing, and it's not disqualifying from his candidacy for POY or FMVP or whatever, but it's a checkmark in the negative column.

It seems a natural effect based on the type of player that he is. As far as I can think of, he's the only elite player in the current league and one of the very few from all-time perspective who doesn't have some kind of dominating physical advantage -- size, speed, strength, whatever. (Nash and Stockton are others that come to mind.) That alone means he can't use that physical advantage in a way that, say, LeBron or Durant can to get easy buckets. Plus Curry's greatest asset is shooting from distance, and that inherently has more variability compared to scoring in other ways. Curry is going to have games when his shot isn't falling, and he can't overpower opponents to get easy buckets when that happens.

So you have a guy who can set the finals record for made threes one game and go 1-10 on threes the next. That doesn't mean he doesn't still have good production in other areas and significant positive secondary impact when his shot is off, but he's shown that tendency to have bad shooting games, and it's fair to criticize him for it.

But the numbers don't really back that up. Again, the last two seasons against the Cavs in the finals he scored 26+ points in 7 out of 9 games. How is that not consistent?

I do think he needs to utilize mid-range and the rim a lot more often when he's not feeling it from deep. He shot an absurd 60% from mid range and 67% at the rim so if he can rely more on those when his outside shot falling, it'll go a long way in dispelling these narratives, IMO.

It's that one stinker shooting game per series.

2015 finals game 2 -- 5-23 FG, 2-15 3pt
2017 finals game 4 -- 4-13 FG, 2-9 3pt
2018 finals game 3 -- 3-16 FG, 1-10 3pt

Sure, his averages are great, but consistency is how well you can produce each and every game. You know I've got plenty of stuff to put in Curry's plus column. I just don't see how it's unreasonable to acknowledge this as one of the few items in the negative column. I don't think people should overstate it as a negative or discount everything else he does because of this one thing, which Curry detractors seem to do, but it's also not fair to deny that this happens.

It's not disqualifying, and I'll gladly take Curry as a centerpiece over anyone, even LeBron. All I'm doing is acknowledging one of the few negatives the guy has. It's no biggee.

[pelifan]

Draymond wanting the max means he's going to be out the door soon.

Thank god. That day cant come quickly enough. Just trade him to guangdong or the Nets now please. Hopefully while he's still in his prime so he can get exposed as overrated, but I'd settle for irrelevant.

[pelifan]

In m eyes Curry deserves a top 3 finish in offensive player of the year but just an HM for POTY. You can't miss that many games and still finish in the top 5 for POTY. He showed up when he had to in the postseason and was at least decent. He was good in games 5 (Durant blew this game), 6, 7 of the Houston series and game 2 against the Pelicans. But you have to be spectacular if you're missing 31 games.

[iggymcfrack]

In m eyes Curry deserves a top 3 finish in offensive player of the year but just an HM for POTY. You can't miss that many games and still finish in the top 5 for POTY. He showed up when he had to in the postseason and was at least decent. He was good in games 5 (Durant blew this game), 6, 7 of the Houston series and game 2 against the Pelicans. But you have to be spectacular if you're missing 31 games.

The way I look at it, is you definitely can’t just lean on the regular season if you’re going to miss that many games. You have to deliver something big in the playoffs. This year, Curry by round:

Spurs: Missed entire series, team won 4-1 without him.
Pelicans: Missed first game (22 point GSW win), good but not great in last 4 games
Rockets: Good but not great, stunk up the joint first 2.5 games, seemed like he didn’t get dialed in until his teammates already had it going
Finals: Played a little better, but still had one absolute stinker

His playoffs were.... fine. He played at an acceptable level for a superstar. But he never just took over in a way that made you say “wow, this guy’s having a special impact and carrying his team to victory”. Curry didn’t lead the Warriors in game score one series and his defense generally looked worse than I remember seeing it.

So when you compare him to someone like Oladipo who played 82 out of a possible 89 games (including all 51 Pacer wins) and did have a special impact in his one playoff series, Steph’s just gonna come up short.

[dhsilv2]

Piggybacking what iggymcfrack said. Where is everyone on Dipo? It is really hard to see his RPM and well in general his two way play analytically and not have him in the 5 spot, but there's something keeping me from putting him clearly there.

[Missing Rings]

Piggybacking what iggymcfrack said. Where is everyone on Dipo? It is really hard to see his RPM and well in general his two way play analytically and not have him in the 5 spot, but there's something keeping me from putting him clearly there.

I couldn't agree more. I'm going to be honest, out of all of the top 10 candidates this season I have watched the least of Oladipo.



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[dhsilv2]

Piggybacking what iggymcfrack said. Where is everyone on Dipo? It is really hard to see his RPM and well in general his two way play analytically and not have him in the 5 spot, but there's something keeping me from putting him clearly there.

I couldn't agree more. I'm going to be honest, out of all of the top 10 candidates this season I have watched the least of Oladipo.



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I saw just enough to question my analysis and yet think yeah he should be top 8 at least. But yeah indy wasn't must see tv for me.

[clyde21]

He was one of the better two way guards in the league this year and I think that's what pushes him into the top 5 if you want to make that argument -- leading the league in steals on top of his 23/5/4. He killed it in RPM and I think that's primarily due to him taking on a more on-ball and playmaking role vs. what he was asked to do last year in OKC.

Wasn't wildly efficient but pretty good across the board...48%, 37%, 57 TS%. The Pacers were also clearly better with him on the court and that showed in On/Off...+14 in the RS and +20 in the PS.

For me the top 5 is:

1. LeBron James
2. James Harden
3. Anthony Davis
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo
5. Victor Oladipo

I do think it's kind of weird that Westbrook wins MVP one year because he averaged a triple-double, but is being left out of the top 5 POY lists after doing the same this past season.

[bondom34]

My top 5 is the same. I think people struggled to buy what they saw from Dipo but he was also great the year before. Fitting two ball dominant guards together is tough and he struggled in the 17 playoffs but his season numbers even then we're a top 5 or so SG. I hammered it then and still do that he was that good last year and worth hos contract and he made a big leap too after the fact. I think people have a hard time putting a less established guy there.

[Missing Rings]

He was one of the better two way guards in the league this year and I think that's what pushes him into the top 5 if you want to make that argument -- leading the league in steals on top of his 23/5/4. He killed it in RPM and I think that's primarily due to him taking on a more on-ball and playmaking role vs. what he was asked to do last year in OKC.

Wasn't wildly efficient but pretty good across the board...48%, 37%, 57 TS%. The Pacers were also clearly better with him on the court and that showed in On/Off...+14 in the RS and +20 in the PS.

For me the top 5 is:

1. LeBron James
2. James Harden
3. Anthony Davis
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo
5. Victor Oladipo

I do think it's kind of weird that Westbrook wins MVP one year because he averaged a triple-double, but is being left out of the top 5 POY lists after doing the same this past season.

I believe Westbrook was a better player last season. It isn't uncommon for players who aren't generational to have down years, especially when their play relies on athleticism to the degree in which Westbrook's does.

PER down from 30.6 to 24.7, TS% down from 55.4 to 52.4, WS down from 13.1 to 10.1, BPM down from 15.6 to 8.2.

It has a lot more to do than him being the same player.

(For the record, I didn't think Westbrook was top 3 last season )

[bondom34]

Yeah Westbrook's advanced numbers were well done.thi year. He might be an HM guy, not sure yet. Definitely a solid argument top 3 last year, think I had him around there. Maybe 2-4, forget

[dhsilv2]

More on Dipo but RPM/RAPM are a function of roles and team construction. Some teams who REALLY like scorers will show really strong "like" for scorers even if they are not nearly as elite as their impact is. This is simply a function of they're really the only consistent option. I think mitchell and dipo are prime examples of guys who may be getting a mega boost that is more role related than the actual quality of their offensive game.

I find making that judgement really difficult and a part of me wants to regress them back towards their box score metrics vs using RAPM.

[ztejas]

How is Durant not in y'alls top 5s? That seems absolutely absurd to me. 29 ppg scorer on a championship team.

And please don't respond with "plus minus metric x doesn't like him"

[dhsilv2]

How is Durant not in y'alls top 5s? That seems absolutely absurd to me. 29 ppg scorer on a championship team.

And please don't respond with "plus minus metric x doesn't like him"

What's the case for him over the guys being listed? It isn't about why he isn't. It is about why he should be. Make your case if you want to change minds. I'm open to a discussion on him.

[NinjaSheppard]

Oladipo over Durant is such a "I want to be a basketball contrarian and not state the obvious" opinion.

[dhsilv2]

Oladipo over Durant is such a "I want to be a basketball contrarian and not state the obvious" opinion.

Why is that? Maybe I miss all the talk but Dipo has been in this discussion and has stats that back it up.

[ztejas]

I have to make a case for Kevin Durant being one of the 5 best players in the league this season?

He had the 5th highest TS% in NBA History for a 25/5/5 season.

He's the 5th player in NBA history to qualify for leading in 3P% with 1.7+ blocks per game, and had the most blocks per game of any 40%+ 3P shooter in NBA history.

He had the 3rd most efficient 600 point playoff run in league history, behind '84 Larry Bird and '18 LeBron.

He outplayed Davis in their playoff matchup and was at least as good as Harden in theirs, despite a couple of poor showings, and was 5-1 in playoff games without Curry on the floor.

He averaged 28.8/10.8/7.5 in the Finals on absolutely off the charts splits of .526/.409/.963 and remains the only player in the league where, when playing against LeBron, LeBron sometimes isn't the best player on the floor. (he outplayed LeBron on Christmas sans Curry and outplayed him in game 3 effectively sans Curry)

It's fine if you don't like the man, but considering him as less than the 5th best player in the world is insane