This is a bit of a relief. Hearing so much praise for JJJ, I was starting to fear I drastically overlooking something.
Noteworthy that Jaren has the lowest bust potential of anyone in this draft...according to the model.
Jamaaliver wrote:Boom or bust: ESPN's Draft Analytics model predicts top players in 2018 NBA draft
The best prospect in the 2018 NBA draft is not Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic. It's Marvin Bagley III.
That assertion is neither a scout's opinion nor a writer's hot take, but rather the conclusion of ESPN's Draft Analytics model.
The former Arizona center and the Slovenian point guard are widely regarded as the primary candidates for the Suns' selection at the No. 1 spot, but the model -- based on a variety of criteria -- projects Bagley to have the best average early career of anyone in the class. It also believes Bagley has the best chance among this year's crop of playing at an All-Star level in his first five seasons.
this is not a unanimous decision: Ayton and Doncic both rank higher in ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony's Top 100.ESPNSo where does the model come down on some of the other top names in this year's class?
No. 4 Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Michigan State
Overall, the model likes Jackson in spite of what it would consider a lack of star potential. The system believes he is remarkably solid and the most likely player to end up a regular starter -- but not an All-Star -- in the NBA with a 42 percent chance. His shot to reach that next level -- of being an All-Star -- is much lower (8 percent) than someone like Mikal Bridges (15 percent). For teams picking this high, it's hard to pass upside in a star-driven league like the NBA.
No. 5 Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova
Besides Bagley at No. 1, Bridges is a fairly big call for the model at No. 5. It's only a handful of spots ahead of where many expect him to go, but this early, that makes a big difference. To wrap up the thought above, Bridges' 15 percent All-Star chance makes him second-most likely in the class, behind only Bagley, despite the fact that he quite possibly will be the oldest person selected in the lottery. This is all about his college production: at Villanova he was an efficient scorer with strong ball security and provided both steals and blocks en route to a strong overall defensive rating. From the model's standpoint, looking at his college play, what's not to like?
No. 10 Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
There's no boom-or-bust prospect in this year's class quite like Young, the divisive player who took college hoops by storm at the beginning of the season before struggling in the second half. Outside of Lonnie Walker IV, whom the model despises, no one has a higher bust percentage (23 percent) than Young in Givony's top 15. But at the same time, the former Oklahoma point guard also has the fifth-best shot at becoming an All-Star (12 percent).
