Post#44 » by BlueSan » Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:56 pm
Ok I ll have a crack at it heh just for funs
1st of all predicting players stats is always very hard because it depends on a lot of factors but for the fun of it lets just dicuss this
1) Assists
When you are talking assists it depends a lot on many factors as with other stats but here we should start with what kind of players Doncic is surounded with on the floor. Are they good shoters, are they good pick and roll guys. Is Center atheltic and a good ally up match up. Whar kind of offense is Carlise executing, how much ISO plays are we going to watch. So before we actually have a team to look at this is even a bigger crap shot.
I do think DSJ can be used extremely well for cutting, I do think some guys, especially center could be added for spreading the floor, I find it quite vital if he is that would be good, but then it depends, how much Doncic will work on his own iso play and his own offensive game driving to the rim. If he does, than we can expect him to drive to the basket and kick out passes out to the open men.
PnR expect if you get people doing that efficiently and if you get a cener that does it well expect 2 assists per game from that alone.
If Doncic will indeed see a lot of ball in his hands and the team will execute well as I think it can I see no reason whatsoever Doncic not averaging at least 5 assists per game minimum. If Dallas is playing better then last year scoing more buckets as a result of team play and ball circling add 1 or two to that as well. I simply dont see a reason why not.
So lets say for the hack of it I predict right now 6 assists for Doncic per game. Take a note assists in NBA are counted when a pass leads directly to a bucket aka when the player receiving the ball goes into a scoring motion or rather tries to go for the bucket in other words a lot more assists as a result are counted in NBA than in Euroleague. So Luka with the same rules would probably have increase in assists in a game just by that alone. Couple that with a longer game, more space on the floor, better shooters, higher scoring games etc and you basically get an increase. It is not so easy though, as we see Milos Teodosic for instance numbers of assists dropped why so? Cause he wasnt the primary ball handler.
2) Rebounds
Rebounds, this is even harder to tell without seeing the system, seeing who the big man will be and so on. One would actually say that in NBA Luka will maybe see less rebounds then in Euroleague and in Real Madrid system or around the same so I ll go with 5 rebounds per game here.
3) Points
I ll say here with him getting more space, having plays run for him, more time on the floor, becoming better shooter, even though guys are longer and more athletic I do expect him to be a good shooter and from the bat I do say I expect him to average around the same as in Euroleague the first year so I ll say 16 points a game.
So for me expectations are = 16 points / 5 rebounds / 6 assists
That is the minimum I expect if they do it right so anything less I ll be disappointed
