Wiretap: Bulls Hope To Re-Sign Zach LaVine At $14M-$16M

[gf2020hotmail]

Anyone listen to the Dunc'd on podcast's Mock Off-Season? ( http://www.blogtalkradio.com/duncdon ) It really illustrated just how much leverage the Bulls have unless Lavine is willing to take his qualifying offer.

The Bulls initial proactive offer was 3 years for 40 million, which was then reduced to 3 years for 30 million after the market dried up. No team even really reconsidered Lavine. He ended up actually taking the qualifying offer because he refused to take the 3 year offer.

I really hope the Bulls drive down his price, even if it risks him walking. After handing Felicio a ridiculous deal despite their leverage, they really better not screw this up.

[TeamMan]

I wonder what the fallback options are at to start at shooting guard if we don't match and LaVine leaves? Will Barton? Avery Bradley? Valentine? Nwaba?

Sean Kilpatrick

Chandler Hutchinson is a SG.

He played SF in college but SG is his natural position.

Now that the Bulls have him, they afford to let LaVine walk, and go full Tank 2.0 look long term solution at SF.

[Ice Man]

I'd be surprised if there's much demand for LaVine. He was one of the least successful players on a 31-win team, tore his ACL, and was worse when he returned. He is not a physical player and he has trouble connecting on the court with his teammates. Those are not minor problems. Teams win titles by getting guys who get stuck in, and who play collectively.

To be sure, he can jump, shoot, and dribble pretty well, and that counts for something. But for me, there are a lot of guys his age who are better worth the gamble.

Be sure to point out I was wrong if somebody signs him for 4 years at $60 million.

[johnnyvann840]

I'd be surprised if there's much demand for LaVine. He was one of the least successful players on a 31-win team, tore his ACL, and was worse when he returned. He is not a physical player and he has trouble connecting on the court with his teammates. Those are not minor problems. Teams win titles by getting guys who get stuck in, and who play collectively.

To be sure, he can jump, shoot, and dribble pretty well, and that counts for something. But for me, there are a lot of guys his age who are better worth the gamble.

Be sure to point out I was wrong if somebody signs him for 4 years at $60 million.

This is how I see it too. However, 4/60 is on the low end of the numbers the pro Lavine people are throwing out there. I think the Bulls match anything up to $15M per year. They will view that as the top end of his range but match anyway because they will see it as a tradeable deal. I don't think he's worth anywhere near $15M per, but if you're going to gamble, it MIGHT wind up being worth it.

People keep using the fact that he was coming off a torn ACL as a PLUS and an excuse for this horrid play last season. I, OTOH, feel it makes him worth a lot less. There is a long long list of players who were never the same after an ACL. Sure, you can find some players who came back strong and never got hurt again, but for every one on that list, I can name 5 players who didn't.

[Peelboy]

I'd be surprised if there's much demand for LaVine. He was one of the least successful players on a 31-win team, tore his ACL, and was worse when he returned. He is not a physical player and he has trouble connecting on the court with his teammates. Those are not minor problems. Teams win titles by getting guys who get stuck in, and who play collectively.

To be sure, he can jump, shoot, and dribble pretty well, and that counts for something. But for me, there are a lot of guys his age who are better worth the gamble.

Be sure to point out I was wrong if somebody signs him for 4 years at $60 million.

People keep using the fact that he was coming off a torn ACL as a PLUS and an excuse for this horrid play last season. I, OTOH, feel it makes him worth a lot less. There is a long long list of players who were never the same after an ACL. Sure, you can find some players who came back strong and never got hurt again, but for every one on that list, I can name 5 players who didn't.

IMO the issue w ACL is if you get the same degree of athleticism, speed, etc. That's what Zach proved this year, which is why to me the ACL isn't really an issue anymore.

The question of efficiency, team play, etc is still outstanding, but that's where lack of practice time, offseason skills and team work, etc come into play. You can question whether that will come around with a full offseason of work or not. I think given his age and reported work ethic it is likely to, but it's debatable and not at this point knowable. Bulls (and Wolves) would have best view on that because it's more mental than anything.

[Betta Bulleavit]

I'd be surprised if there's much demand for LaVine. He was one of the least successful players on a 31-win team, tore his ACL, and was worse when he returned. He is not a physical player and he has trouble connecting on the court with his teammates. Those are not minor problems. Teams win titles by getting guys who get stuck in, and who play collectively.

To be sure, he can jump, shoot, and dribble pretty well, and that counts for something. But for me, there are a lot of guys his age who are better worth the gamble.

Be sure to point out I was wrong if somebody signs him for 4 years at $60 million.

While I don't necessarily disagree with your idea that Lavine might not demand a lot on the open market, I do feel that you casually threw around a lot of statements that are more opinion based than fact. You called him out as one of the least successful players on a 31 win team while ignoring the fact that pretty much all of the players on that team failed in some capacity (the vast majority of which completely unrelated to Lavine). And that's why they lost so many games despite that abundance of young talent. How much winning did the Wolves do after he went down with his injury?

You say that he looked "even worse" after returning from the ACL. Like..seriously? Who did you expect him to look like coming back? Prime Kobe? I don't mean any disrespect here, but I really think that some posters here need to have a seat and get a hold of themselves. We are talking about a guy returning from one of the most serious of injuries to a team that was CLEARLY tanking and the only thing he was really being asked to do was show the organization where he was physically. They didn't give a damn about what he was doing from a skill perspective. Want to know why?? Because he had already shown what he could do skill wise before his previous season was cut short.

You claim that he has trouble connect on the court with his teammates. Okay. What substantiated proof do you have for this? As if Wiggins and KAT are the models for great team chemistry....

Now, you COULD be right in some of your assertions. I just don't think that there is really any hardcore evidence that makes what you are saying true considering that Zach has never really been assessed in a winning environment. He's been placed in two environments where losing proceeded him being there and then people just clumped him as part of it all.

[BadWolf]

Yeah that were weird statememts. Is there any evidence he didn't connect with teammates? There were reports he's close with KAT and Wiggins. Dunn too.
The conclusions might be right , about the demand and the price.

[Pro-Am40]

The Bulls should let him walk. And trade Dunn as well.

[Truebiscuit]

The Bulls should let him walk. And trade Dunn as well.

[TheSuzerain]

The Bulls should let him walk. And trade Dunn as well.

Welcome to the board!

[randybrown]

Zach Lavine CARMELO player projections just came out.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/zach-lavine/

Most compariable performace to Zach Lavine
1.) Monte Ellis
2.) Eric Gordon
3.) Bradley Beal
4.) Trey Burke

LaVine Estimated Market Value is 5yr 36M ...
Thats even lower than what the dont match crowd is saying!

[Darius Miles Davis]

Sean Kilpatrick

Chandler Hutchinson is a SG.

He played SF in college but SG is his natural position.

Now that the Bulls have him, they afford to let LaVine walk, and go full Tank 2.0 look long term solution at SF.

It would seem Hutch has that ideal size so that he can play either position. But, to be honest, we don’t have an updated set measurement for him because he didn’t even get measured in the combine.


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[Kurt Heimlich]

Zach's QO is 4.4M. So if the bulls offered a 3 year 42M deal. Hed be giving up 8M next year and 38M in in total guaruntees. Hed need to make at minimum 2 years 38M the next year to make up for the 8M lost in 2018-19 in addition to the 42M total guaruntee forgone. And that's coming off a year playing on the QO which historically hasn't been good for player/team relationships and commitment.

Risky for sure, guess we'll see how much hardball hes willing to play. But if he doesnt get a big offer sheet the QO is a nuclear move that is almost always bad for everyone.

[coldfish]

Zach's QO is 4.4M. So if the bulls offered a 3 year 42M deal. Hed be giving up 8M next year and 38M in in total guaruntees. Hed need to make at minimum 2 years 38M the next year to make up for the 8M lost in 2018-19 in addition to the 42M total guaruntee forgone. And that's coming off a year playing on the QO which historically hasn't been good for player/team relationships and commitment.

Risky for sure, guess we'll see how much hardball hes willing to play. But if he doesnt get a big offer sheet the QO is a nuclear move that is almost always bad for everyone.

Particularly since the team just drafted a SG. He takes the QO, he will have the shortest of leashes next year. If Hutch does well or the team decides to tank, he simply won't play much before becoming a FA.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Hardball him into a good deal.

Ideally we would trade him.

[Chitownbulls]

Anyone listen to the Dunc'd on podcast's Mock Off-Season? ( http://www.blogtalkradio.com/duncdon ) It really illustrated just how much leverage the Bulls have unless Lavine is willing to take his qualifying offer.

The Bulls initial proactive offer was 3 years for 40 million, which was then reduced to 3 years for 30 million after the market dried up. No team even really reconsidered Lavine. He ended up actually taking the qualifying offer because he refused to take the 3 year offer.

I really hope the Bulls drive down his price, even if it risks him walking. After handing Felicio a ridiculous deal despite their leverage, they really better not screw this up.

That Felicio deal was terrible. Every Bulls player knows what he is getting paid. If I'm Bobby, Zach, Kris etc...I'm trying to get the most money I can from this organization. Signing Felicio Day 1 of free agency could end up biting us in the a$$ bigtime.

[Ice Man]

I do feel that you casually threw around a lot of statements that are more opinion based than fact.

Not really. The plus/minus numbers are there to show that Zach LaVine was consistently one of the least effective Timberwolves. As for LaVine not connecting with his teammates on the court, of course I didn't mean your interpretation, that his teammates didn't like him or whatever, but instead the fact that he tends to be a solo act. Any Timberwolves fan will tell you that, and he played the same way for Chicago when he joined us.

But what we think doesn't really matter, since my claim was what NBA GMs will do. We will learn that soon enough.

[Ice Man]

Zach Lavine CARMELO player projections just came out.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/zach-lavine/

Most compariable performace to Zach Lavine
1.) Monte Ellis
2.) Eric Gordon
3.) Bradley Beal
4.) Trey Burke

Side note, but those 538 projections are weird. The #5 guy is Robert Hawkins and the #6 guy is Chauncey Billups. Robert Hawkins had a 4-year NBA career, playing for 4 teams. How on earth is Hawkins like Billups?

[chrispatrick]

Zach Lavine CARMELO player projections just came out.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/zach-lavine/

Most compariable performace to Zach Lavine
1.) Monte Ellis
2.) Eric Gordon
3.) Bradley Beal
4.) Trey Burke

LaVine Estimated Market Value is 5yr 36M ...
Thats even lower than what the dont match crowd is saying!

We are hoping he can get back to his pre-injury form, where he was worth negative 1.5 wins in 2016!!!

[Pnjguy]

Those CARMELO projections mean absolutely nothing.