Sorry if I already missed this being mentioned, but on BSoTS, the mentioned in this the blog post about FVV...
A VanVleet deal would be like the ones Tyler Johnson and Allen Crabbe got from the Nets two years ago, with third year balloon salaries way over their current value to make up for the relative underpay in years one and two (each got $19 million in years three and four, which kick in this coming season).
For example, VanVleet’s deal could be something like this the next four years: $8 million, $9 million, $19-20 million, $20 million for $57-ish million over four years.
On the good side, that leaves the Suns more spending money this year and next. After that, Devin Booker’s new contract would knock the Suns out of free agency anyway. And, VanVleet does appear to fit the bill of future starter, rather than career role player. The Suns would annually still have, as a cap team, the mid-level exception to spend on adding new talent, plus Milwaukee’s first round pick (eventually) and their own picks.
On the bad side, that’s a LOT of money in years three and four. The Suns had better expect him to be a good starter at that point. And, it’s worth noting that both Crabbe and Johnson were matched by their capped out teams anyway. The Suns could miss the whole first few days of free agency just to wait out the Raptors on the offer sheet, only to lose him anyway.
But here's the kicker, and to me the most important part of all this...
Though Crabbe was eventually traded to the Nets a year later when Portland realized they REALLY wouldn’t want to pay Crabbe $19 million in 2018-19. Miami might be wishing they could do the same with Johnson. Neither is a starting caliber player on a playoff team.
Say what you want, but one year wonders make me very nervous. I'm sure, were we to read all the blogs about Johnson and Crabbe the weeks leading up to FA, we would have read similar types of platitudes...how great these guys were, and how they were worth it, and can't miss guys, etc., etc...well...we see how all that worked out, didn't we. And no, FVV is not any more 'special' than those guys were two years ago. Not saying it's impossible to work in our favor--I'm saying, it's a much bigger gamble than some are making it out to be.
If we end up back-loading an RFA contract bid to someone like Van Vleet, then we are doomed to do the same stupid stuff we've done in the past with Knight, and arguably, Chandler, as well, not to mention, re-live the horrors Miami and the Nets are living now--paying a 13/4 SF 18.5M per, while we finally did something smart, and are paying Warren $11.8M for a 20/5 SF. Let's not ruin our future by paying an average of $15M per for the next 4 years for a 5'11" one-proven-year PG. He's not that good.
Now, I know I've missed something, because I haven't paid attention closely, but apparently, Elfrid is definitely out? I'd rather give HIM that money. Why the heck are we not paying him? Or why are we not using our trade 'capital' to make a deal for Kemba Walker, or another proven PG that is still young enough to grow with our young'ns; as I've always maintained, someone 28 or younger would be my magic age 'number' for us. Doesn't have to be Walker, but IMO, it should be FVV either.
