Wiretap: Bulls Hope To Re-Sign Zach LaVine At $14M-$16M

[JohnnyTapwater]

Worst case, Zach is a 6th man on a trash team.

Best case. Zach is a 2.5 option (between a 3rd and 2nd option) on a championship contender.

What he probably is, is a solid starter that can make the all star team due to the weakened EAST, and one that has delusions of grandeur that out pace his output on the floor.

I think if he simply plays within himself and willingly defers to Lauri, he'll become a fan favorite fast.

[Poohdini1]

i think it's severely misguided to call booker's stats hollow. if anything, he was asked to do more offensively than is ideal for him at this point in his career, and yet he did it pretty darn effectively.

the reason booker is worth $17 million / year more than lavine is not because he is that much better than him presently, but because he has demonstrated he is much more likely to become an elite offensive player going forward than lavine is. (and probably not quite the defensive liability, although booker has a whole bunch of work to do in that area as well.)

How is it that much different than LaVine in his 3rd year:

.576 TS%, .459/.387/.836 shooting line before tearing his ACL.

If you give that LaVine a ton of shots on a trash team, he's putting up Booker's numbers. To me, $17M more implies that Booker possesses some skill or talent level that LaVine is incapable of reaching. There's nothing to suggest that's the case right now.

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Much better passer/playmaker, his assist % last year was double Zach's from his 3rd season. He also probably doesn't think Lake Michigan is an ocean

[BoogieTime]

Woj just postulating that Bulls beat reporter garbage

Kings will have no interest, as IMO they have two better SGs going into the future. If that’s not true I’ll come back and pick up my words. No interest

Atlanta will be the only competition, and they will allow the Bulls most likely to bet on the prospect of post injury LaVine mostly unchecked, especially with defensive issues of Trae. I think it’ll end up 12 mil per year

[Poohdini1]

Most likely scenario we're looking at here is either Zach accepting his qualifying offer (making him an UFA next season), or the Bulls offering a big 1st year salary on a 2 year deal with the 2nd being a team option.

Atlanta trying to pair him with Trae would incredibly short sighted and Sac has Buddy Hield and Bogdanović.

[Peelboy]

Doug what’s silly is freezing your money on a free agent you have no shot at getting because you know the current team is matching? Do you think teams don’t value Capella, Parker, Smart or Gordon as no team looked at them. The RFA market is tough but it’s doesn’t mean you purposely not try and lock your guy up because of it. Obviously don’t go overboard but try and still get a deal done.

Sacramento has locked up all their money anyway. We'll see what they end up doing tomorrow (if anything). Gordon got a massive deal immediately so he doesn't belong on the list. I don't know that LaVine, Parker or Smart have that much value. I do agree though, the RFA market is tough, because you have to overpay to feel you will get a guy, but I don't think teams are that excited about any of these guys.

Zach pre injury career is on par with Booker. Also I never said give Zach 31 million like Booker got. I’m saying that a pre injured Zach being paid 17 mil is more than fair. Also that besides being rusty last season to me at least shown he didn’t lose anything from that injury.

What was Derrick Rose's pre-injury career on par with? What is his post injury career on par with?

Zach's pre-injury career consisted totally of one good half season of basketball as 3rd option where he still had a sub 15 PER and provided nothing outside of scoring and was terrible in all advanced metrics. At that level, you would still be taking a big gamble at 17 million a year that he resolves at least some of those issues.

I won't jump off a cliff if the Bulls match a 17 million offer sheet or anything. It would be understandable, but far and away the most likely outcome is that Zach won't be worth that much. Never in his career has he shown he is worth that much, and the most recent data is really bad.

IMO that's a highly flawed comparison because post-injury Rose was the product of multiple injuries, including not just the ACL but also 2 meniscus tears. Not to mention that psychologically Rose seems to have been in a far different place post-injury (as evidence by the inordinate time to return versus Zach who seems to have been if anything held back by the team rather than sitting himself out).

[StunnerKO]

The Mensicus injury hurt Rose more than the ACL


This was Rose after the ACL

Watch on YouTube

Once the season started he started to put more pressure on himself thus the struggle before the tear

[HomoSapien]

Woj just postulating that Bulls beat reporter garbage

Kings will have no interest, as IMO they have two better SGs going into the future. If that’s not true I’ll come back and pick up my words. No interest

Atlanta will be the only competition, and they will allow the Bulls most likely to bet on the prospect of post injury LaVine mostly unchecked, especially with defensive issues of Trae. I think it’ll end up 12 mil per year

What’s the point of the Bulls reporters pushing this narrative if it’s not true? To prepare fans about losing him?

Woj reporting makes me feel like there is some legitimacy to this rumor. That said, I’d also take Hield over LaVine.

[Betta Bulleavit]

Jimmy went from a 13 PER to a 21 PER during his breakout season. Blaming the Bulls FO for not expecting that is insane. Not many players experience a 7 or 8 point increase in PER. And even though we waited and had to pay him more, Jimmy’s contract still ended up an excellent value and an excellent investment.

And man, it’s a weird reaction when an ACL injury convinces people that a player deserves more cash not less. The ACL injury discounts Zach’s poor play and puts Zach on the same level as Devin Booker, right? Talk about apologist drivel. But it’s even more perplexing when those same people want to simultaneously ignore the fact that an injury even occurred.

Nobody said that Zach deserves the money that Booker just got. The belief is that Booker didn't deserve the money that Booker just got. But he did. So when we talk about the possibility of having to pay Zach 10-12M less per year, the picture starts to become a little clearer. Booker is better...but if we only want to pay Zach say...14M per year (which was never really going to happen) the question then becomes, is Booker 17M per year better??

To answer your question, BB, Booker is NOT worth 17 million per year more than Zach. Could you answer this question in exchange, though... is Zach worth 11.5 million more per year than Mario Hezonja? And why does a player who hasn’t accomplished much of anything on either side of the floor for the first four years of his career deserve to get paid 2nd or 3rd option money?

In my opinion, no. He's not. And that's just being honest. But I think that just goes to show how much of a role that perceived value plays in this league. We can go back and forth until we are blue in the face. But this salary thing isn't an exact science. There are lots of guys that are underpaid and bunch that are overpaid. Not seeing what can be done to change that.

[BearsBulls78]

Kings gonna King


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[AshyLarrysDiaper]

\Which is what we also said of Jimmy.

To the extent that we said the same thing about Jimmy that we did about LaVine, it is because we were completely, utterly wrong. Jimmy Butler was a positive NBA player from Day 1 in the league and Zach has always been a negative NBA player.

Jimmy was in the mold of Brown & Tatum, only not as offensively advanced at the same age. LaVine is in the mold of Tim Hardaway Jr. That is the comparison that I would make.

Exactly. This is why I don’t see Jimmy as an analog here. Prior to resigning, he looked like a positive impact player, the metrics bore that out, and people had noticed. In fact, the summer before his extension I recall Zach Lowe saying an exec had whispered in his ear that someone was going to throw the max at Jimmy the following year. At the time it seemed a bit overboard, but given what Jimmy had already shown, and the scarcity of two-way wings, it was plausible. In Zach’s case, I’m not seeing the positive basketball signs or hearing the kind of league-wide interest that suggest we should treat him like that level of asset. These are two totally different players and situations.

[mecxi2000]

This is way i think the offer from sacramento would happen.
Lets asume that in a normal market lavinne price is 20 mill, its just a numer.
Lets asume that chicago is offering 16 mill, why would they offer more.
And here comes sacramento offering 18 mill.
In this case can only happen two things from sac. pov.
First chicago wont match and in that case they got a player worth 20 mill for 18 mill. so they win}
SEcond chicago match, wich would happen, and in that case sacramento still wins because that would leave sacramento and atlanta as the only teams able to get a player and an asset for cap space.

[Betta Bulleavit]

Worst case, Zach is a 6th man on a trash team.

Best case. Zach is a 2.5 option (between a 3rd and 2nd option) on a championship contender.

What he probably is, is a solid starter that can make the all star team due to the weakened EAST, and one that has delusions of grandeur that out pace his output on the floor.

I think if he simply plays within himself and willingly defers to Lauri, he'll become a fan favorite fast.

This describes my position pretty well. I don't see Zach as a number one option at all on a really good team.
So if we can:
1. Accept the idea that he's probably not better than a 2a or 2b type option at his best and
2. Understand that he wouldn't be being paid as a number 1 option (30M+ per year)

It would help a lot of people to put this in a better perspective. We wouldn't be paying Zach on the premise that he is going to be our number 1 option going forward. We'd be paying a premium based on the HOPE that he can be a solid number 2 or 3 option, which could help lure a bigger fish along with the guys that we already have. Yes it's a risk. But sometimes you gotta swing the bat if you are hoping to get a hit.

[TheJordanRule]

Let me state the obvious -- the Bulls would rather pay $25m to a star Zach Lavine than $17m to a train wreck, post-injury Zach that may turn into a star, maybe, kinda', one day. Especially given how things transpired with Rose.

Unfortunately for them, they are stuck because all they have is a homeless-man Harden (who adds little to no value to a team currently) who's looking to get paid like a upper middle class Harden.

If Zach can prove he can be more than a major net negative next year, the Bulls will be ecstatic to pay him very handsomely, just like they did with Jimmy.

Btw, I am in the camp that thinks that he can be a useful player but he requires a LOT of coaching up, because Steve Wonder can tell he does not read the game well. A useful Lavine is worth $17m plus.

My biggest issue is that I see confirmation in his mindset which justifies his view of himself as a top player in his league, which is quite detached from current and past reality. That's why he needs a dedicated coach who can get through to him, because if he doesn't change, he'll set the franchise back plenty.

On another note, working hard is good, but I don't think shooting mechanics and reps are his issue per say. I've mentioned this before, but he does not need time with his dad, he needs time with a smart coach in the video room. A lot of time. If that doesn't help, then he's a lost cause.

Brilliant post. The part of your quote in bold cuts to the core of this discussion.

P.S. The premise that we should sign any below average player who has high potential to a long term 17 million per season contract just in case that below average player becomes a star is insane. Many below average players have high potential. 9 out 10 of them never become stars. Teams would be unable to sign actual star players with that mentality.

[BoogieTime]

Woj just postulating that Bulls beat reporter garbage

Kings will have no interest, as IMO they have two better SGs going into the future. If that’s not true I’ll come back and pick up my words. No interest

Atlanta will be the only competition, and they will allow the Bulls most likely to bet on the prospect of post injury LaVine mostly unchecked, especially with defensive issues of Trae. I think it’ll end up 12 mil per year

What’s the point of the Bulls reporters pushing this narrative if it’s not true? To prepare fans about losing him?

Woj reporting makes me feel like there is some legitimacy to this rumor. That said, I’d also take Hield over LaVine.

It may have originated from LaVine’s side, that’s who stood to benefit from it.

For the last several years Sacramento has been used as a boogeyman leverage in FA because of the teams reputation agents know they can tie stuff to the team. See Monta Ellis, Dion Waiters in past summers for examples (yuck)

[JimmyJammer]

Woj just postulating that Bulls beat reporter garbage

Kings will have no interest, as IMO they have two better SGs going into the future. If that’s not true I’ll come back and pick up my words. No interest

Atlanta will be the only competition, and they will allow the Bulls most likely to bet on the prospect of post injury LaVine mostly unchecked, especially with defensive issues of Trae. I think it’ll end up 12 mil per year

Woj is his own man, he doesn't follow the herd. He is as plugged in as you are going to find in the NBA. If he says it, you better believe it. Remember also, since before the beginning of free-agency, the Bulls management has been spreading words that they were preparing for a Western team to make an offer to Zach. There have to be some legs to the story.

[Poohdini1]

The Mensicus injury hurt Rose more than the ACL


This was Rose after the ACL

Watch on YouTube

Once the season started he started to put more pressure on himself thus the struggle before the tear

Injuries*. He's had 3 meniscus injuries to date. Those are taxing because of how much a healthy meniscus serves as a buffer to the bones/cartilage in your knee.

%'s were down but he'd been gone a year. You'd have no idea he tore his ACL by watching these highlights.

[BoogieTime]

Woj just postulating that Bulls beat reporter garbage

Kings will have no interest, as IMO they have two better SGs going into the future. If that’s not true I’ll come back and pick up my words. No interest

Atlanta will be the only competition, and they will allow the Bulls most likely to bet on the prospect of post injury LaVine mostly unchecked, especially with defensive issues of Trae. I think it’ll end up 12 mil per year

Woj is his own man, he doesn't follow the herd. He is as plugged in as you are going to find in the NBA. If he says it, you better believe it. Remember also, since before the beginning of free-agency, the Bulls management has been spreading words that they were preparing for a Western team to make an offer to Zach. There have to be some legs to the story.

He was speaking off the cuff on a podcast that “maybe he can” get an offer sheet from them. I do have less respect for Woj than that, and that he might re-state word around town on a podcast, but I’d hardly say that he’s making one of his official announcements

[madvillian]

I guess at this point the Bulls are just waiting for anybody to make him an offer. Seems like a good sign for the Bulls that there hasn't been any rumor of an actual offer by anybody, including the Kings. It alarms me that Gill reported that Zach was looking to be "treated fairly", as "fairly" here means a market offer, no more, no less. If nobody offers him more than two years 30 million, "fair" or not that's what he'll receive.

[Jstock12]

Worst case, Zach is a 6th man on a trash team.

Best case. Zach is a 2.5 option (between a 3rd and 2nd option) on a championship contender.

What he probably is, is a solid starter that can make the all star team due to the weakened EAST, and one that has delusions of grandeur that out pace his output on the floor.

I think if he simply plays within himself and willingly defers to Lauri, he'll become a fan favorite fast.

I don't know, I find it really hard to imagine LaVine as the 2nd option on a legit contender. He'd have to make a huge jump. Not impossible, but not very likely either. Besides, regular season is one thing. We don't even know how he responds in playoff environment, that's a completely different animal.

[musiqsoulchild]

Let me state the obvious -- the Bulls would rather pay $25m to a star Zach Lavine than $17m to a train wreck, post-injury Zach that may turn into a star, maybe, kinda', one day. Especially given how things transpired with Rose.

Unfortunately for them, they are stuck because all they have is a homeless-man Harden (who adds little to no value to a team currently) who's looking to get paid like a upper middle class Harden.

If Zach can prove he can be more than a major net negative next year, the Bulls will be ecstatic to pay him very handsomely, just like they did with Jimmy.

Btw, I am in the camp that thinks that he can be a useful player but he requires a LOT of coaching up, because Steve Wonder can tell he does not read the game well. A useful Lavine is worth $17m plus.

My biggest issue is that I see confirmation in his mindset which justifies his view of himself as a top player in his league, which is quite detached from current and past reality. That's why he needs a dedicated coach who can get through to him, because if he doesn't change, he'll set the franchise back plenty.

On another note, working hard is good, but I don't think shooting mechanics and reps are his issue per say. I've mentioned this before, but he does not need time with his dad, he needs time with a smart coach in the video room. A lot of time. If that doesn't help, then he's a lost cause.

Brilliant post. The part of your quote in bold cuts to the core of this discussion.

P.S. The premise that we should sign any below average player who has high potential to a long term 17 million per season contract just in case that below average player becomes a star is insane. Many below average players have high potential. 9 out 10 of them never become stars. Teams would be unable to sign actual star players with that mentality.

How about if Zach is an above-average player to begin with? Is it such a reach then to see if maybe he takes the next step?

Because for the majority of his NBA life, he has been above-average. And easily so.