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Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so

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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#161 » by Skin Blues » Tue Sep 4, 2018 9:49 pm

Schad wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:The first study is from a 2015 trade in which the pick in question was after the first round, not after the second round. And the second study concludes that a pick in the 26-30 range would be worth around $8.1M. That's before the first comp round, let alone the second comp round. Extrapolate it out and it comes in at around the $3M mark.


The THT extends to the 60th pick, and the curve certainly doesn't suggest that it'd be $3m by pick 75.

Read to the end of the article. The graph you're looking at doesn't tell the full story in terms of present day dollar value on the surplus WAR. To quote:

"a pick in the 26-30 range (like the one the Braves gave up for Ervin Santana) appears to be worth around $16.6 million in today’s dollars. However, when you account for the fact that the pick won’t produce any value for years to come, the value drops more than 50 percent to $8.1 million."

So, $8.1M for what on that graph is shown as 2.2 surplus WAR. The 75th pick is worth about half of that if you use the formula on the chart. So, sure, the chart suggests maybe $4M. But almost all data points for picks >25 are well below the curve, suggesting the model over-values later draft picks. And of course, we have two real-life trades of cash for draft picks that are identical to the one we'd have got for Donaldson that says it's worth $3M. So we have a very good idea what the market actually values them at.
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Skin Blues wrote:A simple way to look at this is: if second round comp picks were worth $7M, why was nobody willing to give even half of that amount for the two that the Orioles traded away in 2015 and 2016?


Because the Orioles are cheap, stupid and have never understood the value of player development?

Yeah, I'm not gonna buy that it happened twice in a row like that. As stupid as they are, chances of them selling a pick for less than 50% of market value once are slim. Selling nearly the same pick again, for less than half market value again, is practically impossible. It requires prolonged stupidity from all 29 other teams that didn't even make an offer or send a text saying "wtf I'd give you double" after the first time.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#162 » by Schad » Tue Sep 4, 2018 10:12 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
Read to the end of the article. The graph you're looking at doesn't tell the full story in terms of present day dollar value on the surplus WAR. To quote:

"a pick in the 26-30 range (like the one the Braves gave up for Ervin Santana) appears to be worth around $16.6 million in today’s dollars. However, when you account for the fact that the pick won’t produce any value for years to come, the value drops more than 50 percent to $8.1 million."

So, $8.1M for what on that graph is shown as 2.2 surplus WAR. The 75th pick is worth about half of that if you use the formula on the chart. So, sure, the chart suggests maybe $4M. But almost all data points for picks >25 are well below the curve, suggesting the model over-values later draft picks. And of course, we have two real-life trades of cash for draft picks that are identical to the one we'd have got for Donaldson that says it's worth $3M. So we have a very good idea what the market actually values them at.


If applying a 10% annual depreciation. If applying a smaller depreciation, as Silver does, it'd be quite a bit higher, particularly when accounting for the growth in cost/WAR. The depreciation isn't going to be a constant; a rebuilding team is going to discount future WAR less than a team competing today, as Swartz himself notes.

Yeah, I'm not gonna buy that it happened twice in a row like that. As stupid as they are, chances of them selling a pick for less than 50% of market value once are slim. Selling nearly the same pick again, for less than half market value again, is practically impossible. It requires prolonged stupidity from all 29 other teams that didn't even make an offer or send a text saying "wtf I'd give you double" after the first time.


Again, you're relying on the Orioles as your dataset. The Diamondbacks once sold Touki Toussaint for about $10m; that doesn't speak to proper valuation, it speaks to terrible asset management from a group that was noted for terrible asset management. They also made both of those trades at a time of year when many teams have already allotted their payroll (April and May, respectively), so a better explanation is likely that they **** their own market and took what they could, because they are the Orioles and the Orioles do those sorts of things.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#163 » by Skin Blues » Tue Sep 4, 2018 10:34 pm

Schad wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
Read to the end of the article. The graph you're looking at doesn't tell the full story in terms of present day dollar value on the surplus WAR. To quote:

"a pick in the 26-30 range (like the one the Braves gave up for Ervin Santana) appears to be worth around $16.6 million in today’s dollars. However, when you account for the fact that the pick won’t produce any value for years to come, the value drops more than 50 percent to $8.1 million."

So, $8.1M for what on that graph is shown as 2.2 surplus WAR. The 75th pick is worth about half of that if you use the formula on the chart. So, sure, the chart suggests maybe $4M. But almost all data points for picks >25 are well below the curve, suggesting the model over-values later draft picks. And of course, we have two real-life trades of cash for draft picks that are identical to the one we'd have got for Donaldson that says it's worth $3M. So we have a very good idea what the market actually values them at.


If applying a 10% annual depreciation. If applying a smaller depreciation, as Silver does, it'd be quite a bit higher, particularly when accounting for the growth in cost/WAR. The depreciation isn't going to be a constant; a rebuilding team is going to discount future WAR less than a team competing today, as Swartz himself notes.

Look, you're the one that cited the article. If you want to bicker about how they measured depreciation, that's another issue that's like three hops away from what the actual point of all this was. It's a $3M pick, plain and simple. We traded a guy who was owed $4M that nobody even made a claim on, and chipped in $2.7M. So, we get a player who could reasonably be assumed to be worth at most about $2.7M.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#164 » by Schad » Tue Sep 4, 2018 10:43 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Look, you're the one that cited the article. If you want to bicker about how they measured depreciation, that's another issue that's like three hops away from what the actual point of all this was. It's a $3M pick, plain and simple. We traded a guy who was owed $4M that nobody even made a claim on, and chipped in $2.7M. So, we get a player who could reasonably be assumed to be worth at most about $2.7M.


They note two separate depreciation metrics, and even show the differences between them, and the author from whom they source that full-on states that it's a guesstimate based largely around the belief that it's better to have WAR today than WAR tomorrow, while also stating that it will vary depending on the circumstances of the team.

And no, assuming that Merryweather is worth about $2.7m is nuts. It completely ignores the bending of the value/WAR curve for playoff/near playoff teams, who regularly (and logically) trade excess value over the long term because of the significant benefit to be realized if it helps you advance. This is why deadline trades happen in the first place.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#165 » by zilby » Wed Sep 5, 2018 1:06 am

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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#166 » by rarefind » Wed Sep 5, 2018 1:53 am

The optics of this deal are horrifyingly bad... what an utter disaster this season has been.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#167 » by Skin Blues » Wed Sep 5, 2018 12:22 pm

Schad wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Look, you're the one that cited the article. If you want to bicker about how they measured depreciation, that's another issue that's like three hops away from what the actual point of all this was. It's a $3M pick, plain and simple. We traded a guy who was owed $4M that nobody even made a claim on, and chipped in $2.7M. So, we get a player who could reasonably be assumed to be worth at most about $2.7M.


They note two separate depreciation metrics, and even show the differences between them, and the author from whom they source that full-on states that it's a guesstimate based largely around the belief that it's better to have WAR today than WAR tomorrow, while also stating that it will vary depending on the circumstances of the team.

And no, assuming that Merryweather is worth about $2.7m is nuts. It completely ignores the bending of the value/WAR curve for playoff/near playoff teams, who regularly (and logically) trade excess value over the long term because of the significant benefit to be realized if it helps you advance. This is why deadline trades happen in the first place.

If the Indians were willing to give away a prospect that was worth >$4M, then why didn't they just make a waiver claim for Donaldson, thereby eliminating all other trade competition? The only explanation is that they weren't willing to pay $4M cash for him, but they were willing to give up Merryweather + $1.3M. Seriously, just think this through a bit. We don't need cherry-picked valuation formulas from 2015 extrapolated out to the 75th pick to determine what that pick is worth since we have direct evidence from at least three trades that it's roughly $3M.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#168 » by I_Like_Dirt » Wed Sep 5, 2018 3:01 pm

Skin Blues wrote:If the Indians were willing to give away a prospect that was worth >$4M, then why didn't they just make a waiver claim for Donaldson, thereby eliminating all other trade competition? The only explanation is that they weren't willing to pay $4M cash for him, but they were willing to give up Merryweather + $1.3M. Seriously, just think this through a bit. We don't need cherry-picked valuation formulas from 2015 extrapolated out to the 75th pick to determine what that pick is worth since we have direct evidence from at least three trades that it's roughly $3M.


I have no idea what Cleveland was or wasn't willing to do, but that isn't the only explanation. It's revocable waivers, after all. Provided the Jays were willing to pay Donaldson, which they clearly were since they're giving money to Cleveland in the process. No matter how you slice it, it's a pretty bad setup for the Jays. I think it's pretty clear that the Jays were more interested in the prospect than the salary savings at this point. They weren't going to let Donaldson go on waivers without getting someone they liked in return. So assuming it's Merryweather, Cleveland clearly preferred not to do Merryweather + $4M rather than Merryweather + $1.3M, but it really doesn't matter who the prospect winds up being. I can see why. If that's how negotiations broke down, I'm not sure it's on the prospect side but rather the financial side. If Cleveland makes a claim on Donaldson, they get more certainty but then have to pay his entire salary and the Jays presumably want the same prospect return. They let him clear waivers to see if their negotiated deal could be made. Was it worth it to add some additional risk to the deal over $2.7M? Clearly Cleveland thought so. I don't really see that as a logical issue relative the other parts of the equation.

As for whether or not Merryweather is worth a pick in the 70s, that's entirely debatable. I've been reasonably happy with how Shapiro and Atkins have managed their transactions, though. The only issue I've had is the Jays' decades old issue of constantly pretending like they're going to be competitive somehow. Their real strength from Cleveland, too, wasn't actually drafting, it was trading stars for more established prospects. Much of the current Cleveland team is built from such trades. They won't all work out great, but I'm willing to wait and see a bit with some of these given the track record.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#169 » by Skin Blues » Thu Sep 6, 2018 2:48 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:So assuming it's Merryweather, Cleveland clearly preferred not to do Merryweather + $4M rather than Merryweather + $1.3M, but it really doesn't matter who the prospect winds up being. I can see why. If that's how negotiations broke down, I'm not sure it's on the prospect side but rather the financial side. If Cleveland makes a claim on Donaldson, they get more certainty but then have to pay his entire salary and the Jays presumably want the same prospect return. They let him clear waivers to see if their negotiated deal could be made. Was it worth it to add some additional risk to the deal over $2.7M? Clearly Cleveland thought so. I don't really see that as a logical issue relative the other parts of the equation.

That's not how revocable waivers work, though. Cleveland doesn't have to pay the full salary and then also have to chip in a prospect. They negotiate with Toronto about how much money Toronto will pay, and what players they will give in return. So, if they made a claim, they could have done the exact same trade - $2.7M paid by Toronto, and the Jays get Merryweather. The only difference is that since he cleared waivers, the other 29 teams can make competing offers. Literally the only downside of a claim, from Cleveland's perspective, is that Toronto might just let him go outright, as unlikely as we may think that was. The upside of a claim is that the Indians eliminate all other possible trade partners - an obvious benefit to them, which they felt was not worth the risk of possibly having to pay JD's entire salary.

I_Like_Dirt wrote:As for whether or not Merryweather is worth a pick in the 70s, that's entirely debatable. I've been reasonably happy with how Shapiro and Atkins have managed their transactions, though. The only issue I've had is the Jays' decades old issue of constantly pretending like they're going to be competitive somehow. Their real strength from Cleveland, too, wasn't actually drafting, it was trading stars for more established prospects. Much of the current Cleveland team is built from such trades. They won't all work out great, but I'm willing to wait and see a bit with some of these given the track record.

Yes, obviously the value of Merryweather is subjective. The only thing we can clearly ascertain from the trade is that Cleveland would rather have $2.7M cash then have been able to keep Merryweather. The Jays might think he's worth 2x, or 3x, what the Indians do. That's possible, since Shapiro and Atkins were the ones who scouted him as an amateur and drafted him. It's also possible that the Indians are aware of an increased chance of re-injury for Merryweather, or complications/delays in his rehab and so believe there is a greater risk in keeping him that the Jays FO isn't fully aware of. So, maybe the Jays think he's significantly more valuable (and the Indians think he's less valuable) than the pick which is worth on the open market, which is about $2.8M-$3M.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#170 » by I_Like_Dirt » Thu Sep 6, 2018 4:15 pm

Skin Blues wrote:That's not how revocable waivers work, though. Cleveland doesn't have to pay the full salary and then also have to chip in a prospect. They negotiate with Toronto about how much money Toronto will pay, and what players they will give in return. So, if they made a claim, they could have done the exact same trade - $2.7M paid by Toronto, and the Jays get Merryweather. The only difference is that since he cleared waivers, the other 29 teams can make competing offers. Literally the only downside of a claim, from Cleveland's perspective, is that Toronto might just let him go outright, as unlikely as we may think that was. The upside of a claim is that the Indians eliminate all other possible trade partners - an obvious benefit to them, which they felt was not worth the risk of possibly having to pay JD's entire salary.



Fair enough. To be honest, I don't really see why they wouldn't have made a claim, either, but I also don't see the downside. Given the relationship between the front offices, I have a hard time believing there wouldn't be a certain element of trust built up. We know they were trying to see if whoever they were going to trade would clear waivers. Maybe they were trying to see if they could sneak something through and it didn't work out. Maybe they didn't make up their mind until later. Maybe they had another trade and then came back more seriously to Donaldson once someone else didn't work out. There are a lot of variables here. I mean, it's possible they were worried about being on the hook for the added money but it's also possible that the Jays are concerned they wouldn't even have gotten a comp pick for him. They wound up not getting one for Bautista, after all, and Donaldson's ongoing injuries and questionable play might be such that, in baseball circles, nobody would have been willing to make that kind of move, unlikely though anyone might think it to be.

Beyond that, I have serious doubts about Cleveland retaining Donaldson after this season. They weren't likely to throw big money at him in the offseason even if that big money was less than expected like the EE situation. And they won't get a comp pick now. There had to be some value to them in trading for him now rather than later. How that all equates, I have no idea, but I think things are way more uncertain than you're suggesting here. Who values whom by how much when is extremely fluid given the circumstances.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#171 » by Schad » Thu Sep 6, 2018 4:42 pm

Skin Blues wrote:If the Indians were willing to give away a prospect that was worth >$4M, then why didn't they just make a waiver claim for Donaldson, thereby eliminating all other trade competition? The only explanation is that they weren't willing to pay $4M cash for him, but they were willing to give up Merryweather + $1.3M. Seriously, just think this through a bit. We don't need cherry-picked valuation formulas from 2015 extrapolated out to the 75th pick to determine what that pick is worth since we have direct evidence from at least three trades that it's roughly $3M.


Because the Indians are generally cash-strapped and have a pretty strict budget?
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#172 » by dagger » Thu Sep 6, 2018 4:58 pm

Schad wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:If the Indians were willing to give away a prospect that was worth >$4M, then why didn't they just make a waiver claim for Donaldson, thereby eliminating all other trade competition? The only explanation is that they weren't willing to pay $4M cash for him, but they were willing to give up Merryweather + $1.3M. Seriously, just think this through a bit. We don't need cherry-picked valuation formulas from 2015 extrapolated out to the 75th pick to determine what that pick is worth since we have direct evidence from at least three trades that it's roughly $3M.


Because the Indians are generally cash-strapped and have a pretty strict budget?


This, and I don't know their 40 man roster picture but they would have had to reinstate Merryweather after the season and perhaps losing someone else was a consideration, especially since Merryweather isn't likely to be ready to pitch until a couple of months into the 2019 season if not later.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#173 » by Skin Blues » Thu Sep 6, 2018 5:18 pm

Schad wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:If the Indians were willing to give away a prospect that was worth >$4M, then why didn't they just make a waiver claim for Donaldson, thereby eliminating all other trade competition? The only explanation is that they weren't willing to pay $4M cash for him, but they were willing to give up Merryweather + $1.3M. Seriously, just think this through a bit. We don't need cherry-picked valuation formulas from 2015 extrapolated out to the 75th pick to determine what that pick is worth since we have direct evidence from at least three trades that it's roughly $3M.


Because the Indians are generally cash-strapped and have a pretty strict budget?

Right. The prospect was worth less than $2.7M to the Indians. Prospects are easy currency though; if he's worth significantly more than that to other teams, they could have traded/sold him at any point before or after the Donaldson trade, for a better return. Yet, they didn't. They took $2.7M for him instead. And not a single team was willing to even take the slight risk that they'd have to pay Donaldson $4M if the Jays let him go. All 29 teams, even the ones at the most crucial spot on the win curve and attempted to trade for him after he cleared, deemed him worth less than $4M.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#174 » by Schad » Thu Sep 6, 2018 7:08 pm

Teams pass on waivers all the time and then work out deals that involve greater value. Justin Verlander passed through waivers last year; you really think that the Astros valued three of their top prospects at less than the $16m the Tigers picked up? Because the math doesn't support that.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#175 » by Skin Blues » Thu Sep 6, 2018 9:35 pm

Schad wrote:Teams pass on waivers all the time and then work out deals that involve greater value. Justin Verlander passed through waivers last year; you really think that the Astros valued three of their top prospects at less than the $16m the Tigers picked up? Because the math doesn't support that.

Verlander was put on Waivers on August 2nd, at which point he was 34 years old and had a 4.29 ERA and 4.81 xFIP in 130 IP. The trade didn't happen until August 31, a span of time that Verlander put up a 2.36 ERA and 3.17 xFIP over 42 innings. And importantly, waiting that extra month to acquire him saved the Astros from paying the $5M that Verlander earned in August. So not only did the Astros get $16M, they also saved the $5M they would have had to pay if they'd claimed him on August 2nd (and they didn't need him in August anyway since they had a 15 game division lead). So they saved $21M total. If Verlander had stayed performing at the same level throughout August as he did the first 4 months of the year, I also doubt the Astros would have given those same 3 prospects without the Tigers eating a lot more money. This is not comparable to the situation with the Indians in which they decided not to make a waiver claim on basically the same day they they decided to trade away Merryweather. They didn't save money, they didn't see Donaldson go from mediocre aging veteran to a healthy superstar over the span of 4+ weeks.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#176 » by sule » Fri Sep 7, 2018 4:03 am

The Toronto Blue Jays did not offer third baseman Josh Donaldson a contract extension prior to trading him to the Cleveland Indians last week, according to Donaldson’s agent.

A report from Jon Heyman of Fancred on Thursday said the Jays “extended an offer for more than the three-year, $75 million deal the Phillies gave to free agent pitcher Jake Arrieta, another major star older than 30. The belief is they were flexible to go at least a bit higher.

“... However, word is that after Donaldson initially seemed willing to continue talks, bringing brief hope for a deal, ultimately his camp suggested a figure range that put the sides far apart enough that talks discontinued.”

Donaldson’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, denied the report in an emailed statement to multiple media outlets.

“The fact is that the team never extended an offer to Josh, no years or dollars were ever specifically discussed, and it’s unfair to Josh for someone to repeatedly misrepresent his business affairs citing their ‘beliefs,’” Lozano said.



https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/article-josh-donaldsons-agent-denies-toronto-blue-jays-extension-report/

uh oh...more bad will from agents towards the organization.

Coupled with the report about MLBPA calling out the organization for manipulating Vlad Jr's service time eligibility, this doesn't bode well for the team moving forward, when they try to acquire players or sign free agents.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#177 » by BigLeagueChew » Fri Sep 7, 2018 4:07 am

Jays didn't do anything wrong there, it's between Heyman and Donaldson's agent.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#178 » by Tanner » Fri Sep 7, 2018 4:13 am

sule wrote:
The Toronto Blue Jays did not offer third baseman Josh Donaldson a contract extension prior to trading him to the Cleveland Indians last week, according to Donaldson’s agent.

A report from Jon Heyman of Fancred on Thursday said the Jays “extended an offer for more than the three-year, $75 million deal the Phillies gave to free agent pitcher Jake Arrieta, another major star older than 30. The belief is they were flexible to go at least a bit higher.

“... However, word is that after Donaldson initially seemed willing to continue talks, bringing brief hope for a deal, ultimately his camp suggested a figure range that put the sides far apart enough that talks discontinued.”

Donaldson’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, denied the report in an emailed statement to multiple media outlets.

“The fact is that the team never extended an offer to Josh, no years or dollars were ever specifically discussed, and it’s unfair to Josh for someone to repeatedly misrepresent his business affairs citing their ‘beliefs,’” Lozano said.



https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/article-josh-donaldsons-agent-denies-toronto-blue-jays-extension-report/

uh oh...more bad will from agents towards the organization.

Coupled with the report about MLBPA calling out the organization for manipulating Vlad Jr's service time eligibility, this doesn't bode well for the team moving forward, when they try to acquire players or sign free agents.


Wow. I know you want to blame the Shapiro regime for everything but nothing you quoted above has anything to do with the Jays. Heyman reported that the Jays made JD a specific offer, and his agent blasted Heyman (not the Jays) for spreading fake news. How does that make the Jays look bad at all?
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#179 » by Raptors Realtor » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:43 pm

As per Rosenthal, rivals Yankees, BoSox & Astros unhappy with Donaldson trade...

https://www.tsn.ca/report-rivals-angered-by-donaldson-trade-1.1170514

Perhaps they should have stepped up and made a better offer?... Based on the return we got, it wouldn't have been difficult.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#180 » by I_Like_Dirt » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:29 pm

Raptors Realtor wrote:As per Rosenthal, rivals Yankees, BoSox & Astros unhappy with Donaldson trade...

https://www.tsn.ca/report-rivals-angered-by-donaldson-trade-1.1170514

Perhaps they should have stepped up and made a better offer?


Or put in a waiver claim? Turns out baseball works in weird ways sometimes and it's impossible to figure out who values what when and why any team does anything at any particular time.
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