Team Canada Basketball Thread V2.0

[Mattd97]

So what are the odds of us qualifying now? This whole process confuses me. Someone give me some good news.

I'd guesstimate our chances of qualifying at around 90% at this point - maybe higher.

However team Canada specializes in that 10%

[Samurai_Raps]

So what are the odds of us qualifying now? This whole process confuses me. Someone give me some good news.

I'd guesstimate our chances of qualifying at around 90% at this point - maybe higher.

However team Canada specializes in that 10%

If it came down to a 1 game match in our hands, like against Venezuela last time, I would definitely agree with you.

But there's so many other variables and teams involved that I think our chances are actually much higher than 90%.

I can't seeing us losing to Chile given what we did to them on their home court. And I see us taking at least 1 of the remaining 3 games with Venezuela and Brazil. I'd say there's a 90% chance of that alone happening, much less all the scenarios that need to happen with the other teams should we not be able to do that

[NotMyKawhi]

It may be too early, but I think Elijah Fisher is gonna be the best of all the canadian Prospects.

[Double Helix]

It may be too early, but I think Elijah Fisher is gonna be the best of all the canadian Prospects.

His feel for the game and tools at his size definitely look to be among the best combo we’ve seen at age 13 in Canada. He also has the kind of frame that looks like it will keep growing and that good weight can be put on. Wiggins had the height and athleticism and shot but not much else. Murray bloomed a little later. Pangos was super skilled young but lacked the physical elements. Olynyk bloomed late. Thompson was mostly motor and physical attributes. Joseph improved in college and the NBA. Barrett and Fisher seem to have that extra something else that the truly elite guys have and can be seen as young as this.

This video of him versus Mikey Williams at grade 8 really shows a lot of cerebral play from both from that age. Those two both look special.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[mojo13]

Spurs sign Olivier Hanlan to a camp deal. I expect he is earmarked for Austin and this is a way to get him some extra money to entice him to stick in the G another year.
THe Spurs are really active pulling guys up from Austin to give them a shot. So who knows - maybe Hanlan will eventually get a chance.

Hopefully this makes him available to canada in the next couple windows.

[TrueNorth31]

My goodness not a lot of love for Andrew Wiggins out there.

In a superb article Zach Lowe tells us what he thinks about him ( talks about Jamal Murray as well ).

"The Jimmy Butler drama masks another festering stench: What if Wiggins is just, like, not good? I was a cautious Wiggins optimist when analytics folks buried him as a teenaged rookie, but he has shown zero meaningful improvement over four seasons. If anything, he has gotten worse."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24736975/zach-lowe-andrew-wiggins-boston-celtics-lineups-most-intriguing-players

For me I'd much rather have a motivated, DB ( Dillon Brooks ) , RJ and Jamal Murray than a Wiggin's who doesn't want to be with the program. I see Murray and Lyles as way more important gets than an unmotivated Wiggins. I'm not sure I'd burn any bridges as the kid is only 23 and could still get better, but frankly if he's not on the World Cup team in 2019 it isn't the end of the world.

[TrueNorth31]

Not only is Zach Lowe calling him out, but perhaps one his staunchest supporters in Canada, Mike Grange is asking hard questions.

"To this point Wiggins has often received the benefit of the doubt, certainly in Canada. He’s young and even now his best should be ahead of him. It’s always felt a bit too early to render a full and lasting judgement, even though there have been some warning signs.

But it’s not often a player gets called out the way Wiggins has been called out by his peers, and so the whispers about his lack of passion and commitment to the task are gathering to full-blown shouts."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/nba/wiggins-responds-loudest-criticism-yet-define-nba-career/

My sources tell me his father is a real problem - the kid himself not so bad, although extremely shy and introverted. Many around him question whether he really likes basketball all that much.

[mojo13]

My goodness not a lot of love for Andrew Wiggins out there.

In a superb article Zach Lowe tells us what he thinks about him ( talks about Jamal Murray as well ).

"The Jimmy Butler drama masks another festering stench: What if Wiggins is just, like, not good? I was a cautious Wiggins optimist when analytics folks buried him as a teenaged rookie, but he has shown zero meaningful improvement over four seasons. If anything, he has gotten worse."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24736975/zach-lowe-andrew-wiggins-boston-celtics-lineups-most-intriguing-players

For me I'd much rather have a motivated, DB ( Dillon Brooks ) , RJ and Jamal Murray than a Wiggin's who doesn't want to be with the program. I see Murray and Lyles as way more important gets than an unmotivated Wiggins. I'm not sure I'd burn any bridges as the kid is only 23 and could still get better, but frankly if he's not on the World Cup team in 2019 it isn't the end of the world.

Agreed....I'm not so concerned with him being on the the WC team especially if we had the rest of the key wings in RJ, Brooks, and Murray (and one or two of Ennis, Pangos, Scrubb, SGA, Stauskas). Wiggins may even hurt chemistry if he is on the team. We would still miss him dearly though if some of the other key wings were missing. I am fairly confident Olynyk, Murray and CoJo are our most important FIBA players in that order - then it gets murky and dependent on who else is playing. Per Lyles - I really have seen no interest on his part and really don't think he will play - or rather my attitude is to not expect him and to just be pleasantly surprised if he does. Keep in mind Rowan Barrett said on record that the players who get them to the WC will have a say in if the guys skipping out will be invited. I take that to mean KO, CoJo, TT and maybe Ejim would have some input if all of sudden everyone wants to play. The players know the deal with guys like Wiggins, Murray, Lyles, Stauskas - whether they really want to play and just couldn't, whether they are a good team mates or whatever. This is not uncommon. France (at least) had their 2016 Olympic team where Diaw and Parker decided some of France's NBA guys didn't deserve to be on the Olympic team and were not invited.

I'm still trying to give Wiggins the benefit of the doubt - rumors keep swirling that Butler might not be a good team mate (overly confrontational a-hole) and Thibodeau is really not a great coach - especially in how he communicates with Wiggins and Towns (Wolves fans seem to have really turned against Thibs). But the clock is really ticking on Wiggins and I am glad to see the pressure on him - it will be interesting to see how he responds.

[TrueNorth31]

I don't see Lyles playing either - as the late Jack Donohue was fond of saying , " You don't win wars with mercenaries". Lyles left Canada as a seven year old for Indiana where his dad was from, the mom and dad met when his father Tom Lyles played hoops for the Saskatoon Storm of the World Basketball League. He probably has little affinity for Canada having spent most of his time in the States.

I think to play for a country you need to have a fairly strong bond to get through the grind - I'm not sure Lyles has that. Still hopefully he's buddies with Murray which might help and perhaps being an Olympian is on his bucket list. Also he may have fond memories of Saskatoon and apparently still has family up here which could help motivate him to play ? He'd certainly help as Olynyk is our only big who can stretch the floor. His dad of all things is a somewhat renowned Blues singer T Lyles ( you can download his music on Apple Music).

One issue with Murray ( and Lyles to a degree) moving forward is his contract extension talks next summer. Hopefully it doesn't drag on until October like the Tristan Thomas situation did in 2015 .

[TrueNorth31]

My goodness not a lot of love for Andrew Wiggins out there.

In a superb article Zach Lowe tells us what he thinks about him ( talks about Jamal Murray as well ).

"The Jimmy Butler drama masks another festering stench: What if Wiggins is just, like, not good? I was a cautious Wiggins optimist when analytics folks buried him as a teenaged rookie, but he has shown zero meaningful improvement over four seasons. If anything, he has gotten worse."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24736975/zach-lowe-andrew-wiggins-boston-celtics-lineups-most-intriguing-players

For me I'd much rather have a motivated, DB ( Dillon Brooks ) , RJ and Jamal Murray than a Wiggin's who doesn't want to be with the program. I see Murray and Lyles as way more important gets than an unmotivated Wiggins. I'm not sure I'd burn any bridges as the kid is only 23 and could still get better, but frankly if he's not on the World Cup team in 2019 it isn't the end of the world.

Agreed....I'm not so concerned with him being on the the WC team especially if we had the rest of the key wings in RJ, Brooks, and Murray (and one or two of Ennis, Pangos, Scrubb, SGA, Stauskas). Wiggins may even hurt chemistry if he is on the team. We would still miss him dearly though if some of the other key wings were missing. I am fairly confident Olynyk, Murray and CoJo are our most important FIBA players in that order - then it gets murky and dependent on who else is playing. Per Lyles - I really have seen no interest on his part and really don't think he will play - or rather my attitude is to not expect him and to just be pleasantly surprised if he does. Keep in mind Rowan Barrett said on record that the players who get them to the WC will have a say in if the guys skipping out will be invited. I take that to mean KO, CoJo, TT and maybe Ejim would have some input if all of sudden everyone wants to play. The players know the deal with guys like Wiggins, Murray, Lyles, Stauskas - whether they really want to play and just couldn't, whether they are a good team mates or whatever. This is not uncommon. France (at least) had their 2016 Olympic team where Diaw and Parker decided some of France's NBA guys didn't deserve to be on the Olympic team and were not invited.

I'm still trying to give Wiggins the benefit of the doubt - rumors keep swirling that Butler might not be a good team mate (overly confrontational a-hole) and Thibodeau is really not a great coach - especially in how he communicates with Wiggins and Towns (Wolves fans seem to have really turned against Thibs). But the clock is really ticking on Wiggins and I am glad to see the pressure on him - it will be interesting to see how he responds.

It was a bit of a gong show when Butler left the Bulls as well. Also adding to the drama is apparently Butler slept with Kat's girlfriend.

https://fadeawayworld.net/2018/09/20/report-jimmy-butler-may-have-cheated-with-karl-anthony-towns-girlfriend/

[frumble]

The crazy part is that in 4 years the best case team is likely leaving NBA players off the team and in 8 years that is basically a guarantee. If you were to make a best case scenario B team (kind of like Canada does for hockey) I feel like that team would fare pretty damn well too. The way the depth of this program has developed has been astounding. When you look at the NCAA ranks we aren't just looking at 1 or 2 lottery tickets who could be impact players down the road, there is NBA or high level Europe potential all over the place.

While we may have more NBA players in four or eight years than we do now, I don't think our chances for FIBA success would necessarily be any higher than.

A lot of our core guys (especially bigs) will likely be closer to their prime in 2020 than 2024.

E.g., Olynyk, Thompson, Powell, Ejim, and Joseph were all born in the spring/summer of 1991. They will be 29 in the summer of 2020 vs. 33 in summer 2024.

Birch, Bennett, Pangos, and P. Scrubb were all 92 or early 93s, so will be 27 or 28 in summer of 2020 vs. 31 or 32 for 2024 Olympics.

Fringe guys (in terms of participation or impact) like Stauskas, Heslip, Sacre< Landry, and Bachynski are around that age or older.

Maybe Wiggins and Lyles (1995s) would be better in 2024 than 2020, but that is probably not much better than 50/50, and given their participation track record, it may not be as relevant as the peaks of the guys listed above.

Maybe we will be better at guard/wing as the development of Barrett, SGA, Brooks, and Jackson and the emergence of one or more of Dort, Akot, NAW, Wigginton, Nembhard and Llewellyn is enough to overcome the likely decline of Joseph, Pangos, Scrubb, and Heslip, but I think our big situation is unlikely to be better in 2024 than it is in 2020. Even if Shi-ttu and/or Brissett develop as expected, I would take our 2020 bigs over our 2024 bigs.

[mojo13]

I don't see Lyles playing either - as the late Jack Donohue was fond of saying , " You don't win wars with mercenaries". Lyles left Canada as a seven year old for Indiana where his dad was from, the mom and dad met when his father Tom Lyles played hoops for the Saskatoon Storm of the World Basketball League. He probably has little affinity for Canada having spent most of his time in the States.

I think to play for a country you need to have a fairly strong bond to get through the grind - I'm not sure Lyles has that. Still hopefully he's buddies with Murray which might help and perhaps being an Olympian is on his bucket list. Also he may have fond memories of Saskatoon and apparently still has family up here which could help motivate him to play ? He'd certainly help as Olynyk is our only big who can stretch the floor. His dad of all things is a somewhat renowned Blues singer T Lyles ( you can download his music on Apple Music).

One issue with Murray ( and Lyles to a degree) moving forward is his contract extension talks next summer. Hopefully it doesn't drag on until October like the Tristan Thomas situation did in 2015 .

I disagree with this. There are many successful national teams littered with guys with little if any ties to the country they play for.
Take Greece for example - 4 or 5 of their core players were born, raised, trained in the US. Some had never been to Greece before the national team found out they had a distant Greek great grandparent and ordered them a passport and an invitation to play for "their country" (Cue Mirotic to tell me how wrong I am). Greece is currently chasing Naz Long and recently claimed Tyler Dorsey. These guys don;t care about Greece - but it can become a big time financial incentive for them to play for Greece (that is something we can't offer Lyles).
Anthony Randolph was a core player for Eurobasket champions Slovenia....most European countries have imported an American guard who has laughable ties to that country. Most Asian countries have imported an American bigman. Andre Blatche has been the key to any success the Philippines has seen for the last half decade or more. This happens in all sports - rugby, running, soccer - name it.

[aminiaturebuddha]

I can't imagine Murray's contract extension talks lasting too long next year. The Nuggets clearly see him as one of their cornerstone pieces moving forward (along with Jokic and Harris). So I wouldn't expect this to impact his ability to play in late August.

Lyles is a different story in addition to the other question marks about his commitment. I still really hope he comes through and ends up deciding he wants to be a part of the National Team going forward. I think he would add a very useful skill set for our forwards, particularly on the offensive end. The one thing that gives me hope is that he did suit up as a junior for Canada at the U19 World Championship. And even though that was a number of years ago (2013), the team did fairly well, finishing 6th. So hopefully he has somewhat fond memories of that, and suiting up with Tyler Ennis, who should at least be part of training camp next year.

I have no idea if he and Murray are good friends on that Nuggets team or not, but hopefully Murray is at least whispering in his ear every once and a while about participating. But as mojo said, I certainly have no expectations about Lyles, just some wishful thinking. A starting lineup of Olynyk, Lyles, Wiggins (or Brooks), Murray, and Joseph would be dominant offensively against 90% of the teams in the World Cup.

[TrueNorth31]

I don't see Lyles playing either - as the late Jack Donohue was fond of saying , " You don't win wars with mercenaries". Lyles left Canada as a seven year old for Indiana where his dad was from, the mom and dad met when his father Tom Lyles played hoops for the Saskatoon Storm of the World Basketball League. He probably has little affinity for Canada having spent most of his time in the States.

I think to play for a country you need to have a fairly strong bond to get through the grind - I'm not sure Lyles has that. Still hopefully he's buddies with Murray which might help and perhaps being an Olympian is on his bucket list. Also he may have fond memories of Saskatoon and apparently still has family up here which could help motivate him to play ? He'd certainly help as Olynyk is our only big who can stretch the floor. His dad of all things is a somewhat renowned Blues singer T Lyles ( you can download his music on Apple Music).

One issue with Murray ( and Lyles to a degree) moving forward is his contract extension talks next summer. Hopefully it doesn't drag on until October like the Tristan Thomas situation did in 2015 .

I disagree with this. There are many successful national teams littered with guys with little if any ties to the country they play for.
Take Greece for example - 4 or 5 of their core players were born, raised, trained in the US. Some had never been to Greece before the national team found out they had a distant Greek great grandparent and ordered them a passport and an invitation to play for "their country" (Cue Mirotic to tell me how wrong I am). Greece is currently chasing Naz Long and recently claimed Tyler Dorsey. These guys don;t care about Greece - but it can become a big time financial incentive for them to play for Greece (that is something we can't offer Lyles).
Anthony Randolph was a core player for Eurobasket champions Slovenia....most European countries have imported an American guard who has laughable ties to that country. Most Asian countries have imported an American bigman. Andre Blatche has been the key to any success the Philippines has seen for the last half decade or more. This happens in all sports - rugby, running, soccer - name it.

I stand by the Donahue assertion. In just about every example you give - the players in question, play not for love of country but rather for financial incentive.

Blanche is almost certainly being paid under the table to represent the Philippines( so is Randolph). Calathes and Dorsey are American born Greeks who have financial incentive to play in their domestic league and National Team ( which other Greek players are you referring to ? ) At any rate after being in attendance at the Canadian/ Greece 1994 World Championship game at old Maple Leaf Gardens it's pretty hard not to see the passion expatriate Greeks have for their motherland.

It's pretty hard to get mercenaries if you have no money, which is the case with Canada Basketball. I think it's pretty clear most winning National Programs win with their own guys ( Spain had Mirotic and Ibaka, but they started playing in Spain as youngsters).

Listen - all I'm saying is that in most successful National Programs the players generally have a strong bond to that country - and I'm just not sure Lyles has that affinity.

[VanWest82]

I think when it's all said and done, Kelly is going to be the second greatest Canadian FIBA player ever (maybe even first ahead of Nash). Some of these kids coming up might become better NBA players, but KO is going to give us a legit chance to medal in the Olympics. Olympic Olynyk even sounds the part.

[TrueNorth31]

A quick review of the mercenary situation for the top teams;

USA - 0
France - 0
Australia - 1 guy who married an Aussie ( Litsch )
Serbia - 0
Lithuania -0
Canada - 0
Spain - 0

Really the Greeks are the only top team that dabbles in the mercenary market ( and given the Greek diaspora - it's often said there are more Greeks in the GTA/Montreal than in Athens) I'm not sure I'd count them as pure mercenaries anyway.

[Hair Canada]

I watched Fenerbache today playing a pre-season scrimmage. Tyler Ennis got a lot of minutes and looked quite good. 15 points (led the team) and a couple of assists in a low scoring game. Clearly, this setting fits him much better. He was able to blow by defenders a couple of times, which he had a very hard time doing in the NBA. Hopefully, he continues to get big minutes and build his confidence.

Doesn't seem like he'll be able to make it to the two remaining windows in November and February though.

[mojo13]

A quick review of the mercenary situation for the top teams;

USA - 0
France - 0
Australia - 1 guy who married an Aussie ( Litsch )
Serbia - 0
Lithuania -0
Canada - 0
Spain - 0

Really the Greeks are the only top team that dabbles in the mercenary market ( and given the Greek diaspora - it's often said there are more Greeks in the GTA/Montreal than in Athens) I'm not sure I'd count them as pure mercenaries anyway.

The heavyweights (Serbia, Spain, USA, Lithuania) don't need to do this as they have deep enough talent pools - are you really implying they are successful because they don't do this? Clearly countries will less deep talent pools are successful with this strategy or they wouldn't do it. I am sure the Filipino fans are quite pleased with their results since retaining Blatche - of course he is paid for and that's the point. Their field of vision is the regional tournaments and merely qualification for the big ones like the WC. They have much more success with him than without him. I pointed out Anthony Randolph a top three player with the reigning Eurobasket champions - Slovenia. The Eurobasket is clearly the third most prestigious basketball tournament in the world after the WCs and Olympics. Russia won the the 2007 Eurobasket on the back of J.R. Holden.

If you don't think Canada would be a better team if we were magically able to naturalize Lebron James or Kevin Durant I don't know what to tell you or Jack Donahue. Dare to dream though right? Maybe we can convince Kawhi to play for Canada?

[mojo13]

I watched Fenerbache today playing a pre-season scrimmage. Tyler Ennis got a lot of minutes and looked quite good. 15 points (led the team) and a couple of assists in a low scoring game. Clearly, this setting fits him much better. He was able to blow by defenders a couple of times, which he had a very hard time doing in the NBA. Hopefully, he continues to get big minutes and build his confidence.

Doesn't seem like he'll be able to make it to the two remaining windows in November and February though.

I always thought he was decent getting by defenders in the NBA - it was once he was in the paint he really struggled. He really couldn't finish and wasn't the greatest passer in the paint. That step down in size, length and athleticism he faces when entering the paint could make a world of difference for him. Outside of a short stretch when he was first traded to the Lakers his outside shooting has been very bad in the NBA. If the shorter FIBA 3pt line makes a difference for him, that will really make him more effective as well. Great to see he is off to a good start - he needs to rebuild Canadians rep with Fener after the Bennett debacle.

[Double Helix]

I made the Rudy Gay comparison on these very boards 6 years ago at the peak of Wiggins mania.

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