#8 UCF [10-0] @ Tampa

[MagicFan101]

Clearly some of you value wins over performance (no, they are not the same thing).

Let me offer you this question to help explain why W/L record is not the end all metric:

UCF Knights or LA Rams? Which team is better? Which team would win if they played a neutral site game today?

The Knights have a better record so ... yeah.

[Nemesis21]

We also didn't start out in a big conference. Started in the Dixie Conference, then was and Independent for 40 years.

So how do you think we go into a bigger conference and how did we get to play bigger schools? Bobby Bowden would play anybody, anywhere that's how. He and FSU scheduled tougher opponents, scheduled tougher out of conference opponents went on the road and played anybody.

Playing bigger schools while still an independent, getting invited into the ACC, those things weren't just handed to FSU. They were earned!

And that's what UCF needs to do.

I get what you’re saying and full kudos to FSU for pulling off what was a very viable strategy in the 1970s.

Unfortunately, that just isn’t how it works today. It’s like apples and oranges. Schedules are set too far in advance and the $$$$ gap between the P5 and the G5 is something that didn't really exist at all back in the 1970s.

NCAA schedules are set 5-7, sometimes 8-10 years in advance. Ohio State already has non conference games set for 2026 and 2027 for goodness sake.

It's easy to say... "oh well just schedule tougher games!" But pretty much no elite P5 program is scheduling a home and home with the best G5 because the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

Beyond that, despite what people on this board will tell you, UCF starts so far behind the financial 8 ball that giving up home games to play out of conference road games isn't really a viable financial strategy either.

Didn't get into the ACC until 1992. So it was a strategy in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

[Nemesis21]

I don't see a single game on that schedule that I think the Knights couldn't win or wouldn't at least be competitive in. I think it's interesting you have us losing to a 4-4 VT, and a 5-4 Miami, while beating 7-2 Syracuse and 6-2 NC State. I think we would beat all 4 of them, which following the schedule would put us 8-1 with our 1 loss being Clemson (i'll assume we lose that one, even though I think we could beat them) heading into the final 3 weeks, which would probably put us right around #8 in the rankings. I also think we could beat those last 3 teams as well.

Now i'm not saying we would, i'm saying we could. So I think 11-1 is possible, which would put us in the CFP discussion (if we won the CCG). Now odds dictate we stumble somewhere else too, of course. It's why going 11-1 is so dang difficult every year, and it's why going undefeated is such an accomplishment, because teams have off weeks. So I could easily see us going 8-4 with that schedule. I really don't see us doing much worse than that though. Obviously i've got black and gold glasses on, but since you asked, that's my .02.

Maybe in most seasons we go 8-4. But maybe this year was the year we'd go 11-1.

Clearly you didn't read, I said answer the question as if the season had not started. So we don't know if VT is 4-4, UM 5-4 etc etc

Answer in the thinking the season hasn't started yet and you are just now looking at that schedule.

What is the point of thinking about how they would perform before the season started?

You're taking incorrect perceptions about teams before a season starts and assessing whether or not you believe UCF would've beaten them? Sorry, i'm just not following the point.

You're going based off your momentum in 2017. UCF just went 13-0, claimed a fake national championship. It's March 2018, you see that schedule just came out, tell me your opinion of how you think UCF would fair with that schedule in 2018.

It's actually not has hard as you think.

[Knightro]

Didn't get into the ACC until 1992. So it was a strategy in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

I understand that. It doesn't change my point.

There wasn't the ridiculous financial gap that exists today in the 70s, 80s or early 90s.

Nor were football schedules set nearly as far in advance.

Here's an example...

UCF agreed to a home and home with North Carolina back in 2015 to play in Chapel Hill in 2018 and then in Orlando in 2020.

At the time they negotiated that contract, UNC had just completed an 11-1 regular season and made the ACC title game.

Since then? UNC's win total has dropped from 8 to 3 to just 1 this season.

Is that UCF's fault? They sought out one of the best teams in the ACC in 2015, got them to agree to a home and home, but just three years later UNC has completely fallen apart and that game is mostly irrelevant for UCF now.

[Nemesis21]

Didn't get into the ACC until 1992. So it was a strategy in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

I understand that. It doesn't change my point.

There wasn't the ridiculous financial gap that exists today in the 70s, 80s or early 90s.

Nor were football schedules set nearly as far in advance.

Here's an example...

UCF agreed to a home and home with North Carolina back in 2015 to play in Chapel Hill in 2018 and then in Orlando in 2020.

At the time they negotiated that contract, UNC had just completed an 11-1 regular season and made the ACC title game.

Since then? UNC's win total has dropped from 8 to 3 to just 1 this season.

Is that UCF's fault? They sought out one of the best teams in the ACC in 2015, got them to agree to a home and home, but just three years later UNC has completely fallen apart and that game is mostly irrelevant for UCF now.

One of the best teams that one particular year. But everybody knows, UNC is a middle team in the ACC as far as football goes. They should have scheduled a Miami, Clemson or FSU(yes middle team this year, but known as a top program of ACC).

[UCF]

Love the assumption that in-state teams want to play us. They want 2-1 deals if they even consider talking and most don’t want to risk losing to us.

Read on Twitter

[UCFJayBird]

Clearly you didn't read, I said answer the question as if the season had not started. So we don't know if VT is 4-4, UM 5-4 etc etc

Answer in the thinking the season hasn't started yet and you are just now looking at that schedule.

What is the point of thinking about how they would perform before the season started?

You're taking incorrect perceptions about teams before a season starts and assessing whether or not you believe UCF would've beaten them? Sorry, i'm just not following the point.

You're going based off your momentum in 2017. UCF just went 13-0, claimed a fake national championship. It's March 2018, you see that schedule just came out, tell me your opinion of how you think UCF would fair with that schedule in 2018.

It's actually not has hard as you think.

Ok, given the coaching change and some players leaving, I'd probably have predicted 8-4, expecting us to have a drop back. I can't recall my prediction before the season started, but I think I was saying 9-3 or 10-2 in the AAC, so yea, 8-4 probably. But the team is better this year than I expected.

Still don't see the point, but there ya go.

[MagicFan101]

Didn't get into the ACC until 1992. So it was a strategy in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

I understand that. It doesn't change my point.

There wasn't the ridiculous financial gap that exists today in the 70s, 80s or early 90s.

Nor were football schedules set nearly as far in advance.

Here's an example...

UCF agreed to a home and home with North Carolina back in 2015 to play in Chapel Hill in 2018 and then in Orlando in 2020.

At the time they negotiated that contract, UNC had just completed an 11-1 regular season and made the ACC title game.

Since then? UNC's win total has dropped from 8 to 3 to just 1 this season.

Is that UCF's fault? They sought out one of the best teams in the ACC in 2015, got them to agree to a home and home, but just three years later UNC has completely fallen apart and that game is mostly irrelevant for UCF now.

Going after the UNC and Pitt’s of the world is definitely a step in the right direction. They are more often than not a notch or two above the usual opponent UCF faces and every now and then they are legit top 25 programs with a P5 schedule.

But those teams run the risk of exactly what happened.

Which is why you make a bluff for more (just in case) but quickly fold your hand and take the deal when an Oklahoma comes knocking.

[Knightro]

One of the best teams that one particular year. But everybody knows, UNC is a middle team in the ACC as far as football goes. They should have scheduled a Miami, Clemson or FSU(yes middle team this year, but known as a top program of ACC).

UCF will play a home and home against anyone in the country. Trust me on that.

A large number of P5 programs - including FSU, Miami, Florida - simply won't do it. They will not play a home and home.

Did you know UCF was supposed to play Texas in 2017? The Longhorns pushed the game back to 2023 and then Texas simply bought their way out of the contract.

Scheduling is just not as easy as you make it out to be.

[Knightro]

For what it's worth, UCF plays Stanford at home and Pitt on the road next year as their two P5 games.

[MagicFan101]

One of the best teams that one particular year. But everybody knows, UNC is a middle team in the ACC as far as football goes. They should have scheduled a Miami, Clemson or FSU(yes middle team this year, but known as a top program of ACC).

UCF will play a home and home against anyone in the country. Trust me on that.

A large number of P5 programs - including FSU, Miami, Florida - simply won't do it. They will not play a home and home.

Did you know UCF was supposed to play Texas in 2017? The Longhorns pushed the game back to 2023 and then Texas simply bought their way out of the contract.

Scheduling is just not as easy as you make it out to be.

lol, I’m sure they would.

Do you understand how valuable even one game is for these big ticket programs? Getting them to commit two games requires a lot of guaranteed return and UCF doesn’t have the pull for that yet.

Forget your home and home agreements. You’re not getting those.

Is UCF willing to pony up and agree to a single road game with a major opponent to build that leverage for home and home agreements down the road? At the moment it is clear the answer is no.

[Knightro]

Is UCF willing to pony up and agree to a single road game with a major opponent to build that leverage for home and home agreements down the road? At the moment it is clear the answer is no.

No. UCF under Danny White will not take a solo road game against a P5. I never suggested they would.

But you're dramatically overselling the amount of leverage that creates towards future home and home agreements.

In my personal opinion, agreeing to play one road game, regardless of fans that travel or result of game, doesn't create any leverage whatsoever towards a future home and home with the same opponent.

The only benefit to playing a true road game against a P5 non-conference is strength of schedule. Boise has played a TON of one off road games against P5 opponents and it hasn't gotten them jack in terms of leverage for future home and homes and it certainly hasn't gotten them any closer to getting a P5 invitation.

Since 2000, Boise has played at Arkansas x2, at South Carolina, at Georgia x2, at Utah, at Virginia Tech, at Michigan State and neutral site Ole Miss and hasn't had any one of those schools come to Idaho.

Much like UCF - who does home and homes with mid tier ACC schools - Boise is pretty much only able to get home and homes with mid tier Pac 12 schools like Oregon State, Washington and Washington State.

[Knightro]

Do you understand how valuable even one game is for these big ticket programs? Getting them to commit two games requires a lot of guaranteed return and UCF doesn’t have the pull for that yet.

What's funny about what you're saying here... the gap in television revenue is SO massive that one home game for UCF is a lot more valuable financially for their program than any single home game is for a P5 school.

UCF's ticket revenue for one home game is a bigger percentage of their overall revenue than it is for any P5 conference school.

[MagicFan101]

Do you understand how valuable even one game is for these big ticket programs? Getting them to commit two games requires a lot of guaranteed return and UCF doesn’t have the pull for that yet.

What's funny about what you're saying here... the gap in television revenue is SO massive that one home game for UCF is a lot more valuable financially for their program than any single home game is for a P5 school.

UCF's ticket revenue for one home game is a bigger percentage of their overall revenue than it is for any P5 conference school.

Uh huh... which is why I refered to settling for a road game as “ponying up.”

[MagicFan101]

Is UCF willing to pony up and agree to a single road game with a major opponent to build that leverage for home and home agreements down the road? At the moment it is clear the answer is no.

No. UCF under Danny White will not take a solo road game against a P5. I never suggested they would.

But you're dramatically overselling the amount of leverage that creates towards future home and home agreements.

In my personal opinion, agreeing to play one road game, regardless of fans that travel or result of game, doesn't create any leverage whatsoever towards a future home and home with the same opponent.

The only benefit to playing a true road game against a P5 non-conference is strength of schedule. Boise has played a TON of one off road games against P5 opponents and it hasn't gotten them jack in terms of leverage for future home and homes and it certainly hasn't gotten them any closer to getting a P5 invitation.

Since 2000, Boise has played at Arkansas x2, at South Carolina, at Georgia x2, at Utah, at Virginia Tech, at Michigan State and neutral site Ole Miss and hasn't had any one of those schools come to Idaho.

Much like UCF - who does home and homes with mid tier ACC schools - Boise is pretty much only able to get home and homes with mid tier Pac 12 schools like Oregon State, Washington and Washington State.

I would like to see a revenue / profit comp. analysis of these Boise games versus others across a variety of opponents. Just saying they played the game and didnt get in isn’t enough info.

Maybe it works. Maybe it doesn’t work.

But SOS is clearly a big piece holding UCF back. They we’re offered at least one mega game and said no.

If the goal of the program is to earn money through a strong fan base and share that across athletics then just say so and call it a success. It is a success. But playing that game and then crying about football rankings with a horrendous schedule is silly.

[Knightro]

If the goal of the program is to earn money through a strong fan base and share that across athletics then just say so and call it a success. It is a success. But playing that game and then crying about football rankings with a horrendous schedule is silly.

That most certainly is the goal for UCF athletics. I wouldn't confuse what some of the more vocal fans shout with what the UCF athletic department actually thinks.

And look... most UCF fans know they didn't win the National Title last year. It was a marketing ploy, but it was a highly effective one. It's almost 12 months later and people are still talking about the program. Danny White is a salesman. If stoking those outrage flames makes people buy more season tickets, that's what he's going to do.

You'll notice I haven't been arguing that UCF deserves to be in the playoff either. Only debunking common misconceptions about how college football schedules are made and why UCF can't just magically play a tougher schedule.

[tiderulz]

We also didn't start out in a big conference. Started in the Dixie Conference, then was and Independent for 40 years.

So how do you think we go into a bigger conference and how did we get to play bigger schools? Bobby Bowden would play anybody, anywhere that's how. He and FSU scheduled tougher opponents, scheduled tougher out of conference opponents went on the road and played anybody.

Playing bigger schools while still an independent, getting invited into the ACC, those things weren't just handed to FSU. They were earned!

And that's what UCF needs to do.

I get what you’re saying and full kudos to FSU for pulling off what was a very viable strategy in the 1970s.

Unfortunately, that just isn’t how it works today. It’s like apples and oranges. Schedules are set too far in advance and the $$$$ gap between the P5 and the G5 is something that didn't really exist at all back in the 1970s.

NCAA schedules are set 5-7, sometimes 8-10 years in advance. Ohio State already has non conference games set for 2026 and 2027 for goodness sake.

It's easy to say... "oh well just schedule tougher games!" But pretty much no elite P5 program is scheduling a home and home with the best G5 because the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

Beyond that, despite what people on this board will tell you, UCF starts so far behind the financial 8 ball that giving up home games to play out of conference road games isn't really a viable financial strategy either.

some but not all schedules are made 5-7 years out. Ive seen BAma schedule a team 2 years out.

[tiderulz]

Is UCF willing to pony up and agree to a single road game with a major opponent to build that leverage for home and home agreements down the road? At the moment it is clear the answer is no.

No. UCF under Danny White will not take a solo road game against a P5. I never suggested they would.

But you're dramatically overselling the amount of leverage that creates towards future home and home agreements.

In my personal opinion, agreeing to play one road game, regardless of fans that travel or result of game, doesn't create any leverage whatsoever towards a future home and home with the same opponent.

The only benefit to playing a true road game against a P5 non-conference is strength of schedule. Boise has played a TON of one off road games against P5 opponents and it hasn't gotten them jack in terms of leverage for future home and homes and it certainly hasn't gotten them any closer to getting a P5 invitation.

Since 2000, Boise has played at Arkansas x2, at South Carolina, at Georgia x2, at Utah, at Virginia Tech, at Michigan State and neutral site Ole Miss and hasn't had any one of those schools come to Idaho.

Much like UCF - who does home and homes with mid tier ACC schools - Boise is pretty much only able to get home and homes with mid tier Pac 12 schools like Oregon State, Washington and Washington State.

what about a neutral site game?

[Knightro]

what about a neutral site game?

One of those kickoff classic type games in Atlanta, Dallas or Orlando where both teams get paid a huge amount of money to show up? Obviously yes UCF would play one of those against anyone in the country.

But they haven’t been invited to play in one of those yet and I don’t see them or any G5 being asked any time soon.

A neutral site game v. a P5 in place of a home game is very unlikely to me.

[UCFJayBird]

Yea the only neutral site games i've seen discussed is sometimes UCF will want a 2 home 2 away series, and the other team will get a call from the Citrus Bowl lobbying to play one of the UCF games at the Camping World Stadium as a neutral site game. So all of a sudden the team from out of town is like "yea let's do that! 2 home, 1 at UCF, 1 at CWS" and UCF obviously says no because they don't want to get unfair terms. I think a 1-1-1 would probably get inked, but not sure that is ever truly considered *shrugs*

Tough to know what goes on behind closed doors though.

edit: and I mean a 1-1-1 with a real neutral site, i recognize other teams wouldn't view CWS as truly neutral since it's in Orlando.