2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[ThunderBolt]

Shhhh... you’ll upset the board. Roberson is needed! We miss his spacing on offense.


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Nah you won’t upset anyone. Well just start talking about robersons impact using analytics and it will go over your head. Jr Smith, lol.

Not at all, you will assume you are right regardless tho if you use them....fergusons stats with the starters have looked good, too. The team looks great, face it. He isn't really missed. Oh forgot huestis, he was competent too haha

This type of reasoning is asinine. ‘Defense has been good without Roberson so if we can add one of the best defensive players in the league, we should probably trade him for dog crap.’ Roberson may not be the same player he was before the injury. I’m not afraid to admit that. If we can at least wait and see before we write him off, the defense could go to another level. Ferguson playing well doesn’t negate the kind of impact Roberson had and could have if healthy.

[slick_watts]

even if roberson and ferguson were equals defensively, which they are not even close to being, roberson is light years better on offense.

[hardenASG13]

Lmao. Have you guys seen Patterson play? Are we watching the same game?

Patterson belongs on second unit. I think he should play some minutes with starters, but he shouldn’t be starting.


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Yep, he's right where he should be. The second unit is so good this year. Even ferg has found his confidence. I wonder how long it will be before this board admits Schroeder is an awesome return for melo, too. Oh and 1 more thing. It's crazy how the team isn't missing Roberson, with competent replacements (Schroeder, abrines, diallo, ferguson), as opposed to **** abrines last year and Corey brewer.......they look great!

you must be a glutton for punishment. the team isn't missing andre roberson? lol. ok. we'll take another look at this down the line, because tbh you and many others said the same thing when waiters started, when brewer started, and basically any time 'dre gets hurt and some flash in the pan streak occurs. you can't like.. pound your chest on this one when you were wrong every other time.

i can't speak for anyone else, but for me it takes a long time and a lot of evidence to support an extraordinary subversion such as dennis schroder being a good player, or the thunder are an elite defense without andre roberson. it should for anyone imo who doesn't want to be reactionary, but i think you're too emotional.

I hear you but I disagree it's a flash in the pan. This isn't him being replaced by **** abrines, brewer (out of the league), huestis, Perry Jones, foye,etc. The entire rotation (including ferguson if he remains confident) is nba caliber this year. They have multiple competent replacements. Schroeder is a starter off the bench. No more playing 4 on 5 on offense unnecessarily, since this is the nba.

[hardenASG13]

Nah you won’t upset anyone. Well just start talking about robersons impact using analytics and it will go over your head. Jr Smith, lol.

Not at all, you will assume you are right regardless tho if you use them....fergusons stats with the starters have looked good, too. The team looks great, face it. He isn't really missed. Oh forgot huestis, he was competent too haha

This type of reasoning is asinine. ‘Defense has been good without Roberson so if we can add one of the best defensive players in the league, we should probably trade him for dog crap.’ Roberson may not be the same player he was before the injury. I’m not afraid to admit that. If we can at least wait and see before we write him off, the defense could go to another level. Ferguson playing well doesn’t negate the kind of impact Roberson had and could have if healthy.

I'm not writing him off. I'm just observing how well they are playing, and noticing this is by far the best bench they've had in years, if not ever. I don't even notice him missing.

[Old Man Game]

Slow down ya'all. This bench is fine but its not 2012. (Harden/Collison PnR R.I.P.)

[ThunderBolt]

Assuming the ankle heels to 100% and he’s not rushed back , I think it’s kind of nice to give russ’ knee a week or two off just to be safe.

[Pillendreher]

Since we talked about this after the very rough start: pbpstats is also tracking shot quality

https://dblackrun.github.io/2018/09/03/pbp-shot-quality-model.html

What is included in the model:

Shot Distance
Shot Angle (0 for straightaway shots, 90 from the corners)
Seconds since play started
Time remaining in period
Period
Score differential
Putback (a shot by the player who got the offensive rebound within 2 seconds of getting the rebound)
Regular Season / Playoffs
Play Start Type
Off Deadball
Off Live Ball Turnover
Off Block
Off Made FG
Off Missed FG
Off FT Make
Off FT Miss
Off Timeout
Off Oreb
Off FT Oreb
Off Team Oreb
Off Blocked Oreb
Off Team Blocked Oreb (these are separate from other team rebounds since the shot clock won’t have been reset)

What is not included in the model:

Closest defender distance
Touch time
Who the shooter is

Based on said model, which does not take into account who the shooters is, our shots taken so far have the 4th highest quality in the league. Based on the difference between the "shot quality" and the real eFG%, we're 30th though at -0.04 %-points.

PS: Per the same data, our opponents' "shot quality" ranks 8th in the league, ie they have been expected to shoot an above average percentage on their shots.

[alessandrux]

Since we talked about this after the very rough start: pbpstats is also tracking shot quality

https://dblackrun.github.io/2018/09/03/pbp-shot-quality-model.html

What is included in the model:

Shot Distance
Shot Angle (0 for straightaway shots, 90 from the corners)
Seconds since play started
Time remaining in period
Period
Score differential
Putback (a shot by the player who got the offensive rebound within 2 seconds of getting the rebound)
Regular Season / Playoffs
Play Start Type
Off Deadball
Off Live Ball Turnover
Off Block
Off Made FG
Off Missed FG
Off FT Make
Off FT Miss
Off Timeout
Off Oreb
Off FT Oreb
Off Team Oreb
Off Blocked Oreb
Off Team Blocked Oreb (these are separate from other team rebounds since the shot clock won’t have been reset)

What is not included in the model:

Closest defender distance
Touch time
Who the shooter is

Based on said model, which does not take into account who the shooters is, our shots taken so far have the 4th highest quality in the league. Based on the difference between the "shot quality" and the real eFG%, we're 30th though at -0.04 %-points.

PS: Per the same data, our opponents' "shot quality" ranks 8th in the league, ie they have been expected to shoot an above average percentage on their shots.

Sounds nice in theory, but I don't know what the carryover is. Giving bad shooters (of which we have some) good shots might be a better strategy than pressuring good shooters into tough shots.

[Pillendreher]

Since we talked about this after the very rough start: pbpstats is also tracking shot quality

https://dblackrun.github.io/2018/09/03/pbp-shot-quality-model.html

What is included in the model:

Shot Distance
Shot Angle (0 for straightaway shots, 90 from the corners)
Seconds since play started
Time remaining in period
Period
Score differential
Putback (a shot by the player who got the offensive rebound within 2 seconds of getting the rebound)
Regular Season / Playoffs
Play Start Type
Off Deadball
Off Live Ball Turnover
Off Block
Off Made FG
Off Missed FG
Off FT Make
Off FT Miss
Off Timeout
Off Oreb
Off FT Oreb
Off Team Oreb
Off Blocked Oreb
Off Team Blocked Oreb (these are separate from other team rebounds since the shot clock won’t have been reset)

What is not included in the model:

Closest defender distance
Touch time
Who the shooter is

Based on said model, which does not take into account who the shooters is, our shots taken so far have the 4th highest quality in the league. Based on the difference between the "shot quality" and the real eFG%, we're 30th though at -0.04 %-points.

PS: Per the same data, our opponents' "shot quality" ranks 8th in the league, ie they have been expected to shoot an above average percentage on their shots.

Sounds nice in theory, but I don't know what the carryover is. Giving bad shooters (of which we have some) good shots might be a better strategy than pressuring good shooters into tough shots.

I think they've been doing a better job of "not overshooting" it with their worst shooters. Since the Kings game where they took almost 40 3s, they've given ~18 a game to George, Abrines and Patterson while giving ~13 to 14 a game to Westbrook, Schröder, Ferguson, Diallo and Grant. And hell, Grant and Ferguson have been making 38 % of their 3s, so that of course helps.

[AirInTheLoop]

During the winning streak, Schröder has been averaging 23/6/5 per 36 on 58 TS%/107 ORtG/18 PER. Still not hitting the 3, but that is the kind of efficiency the Thunder desperately need.

Im so glad that Kenny Smith finally decided to talk about consistency of pacing.
This is something ive been harping about for years. People want to focus on Dennis not hitting the 3 well, but having a guy who can come in and run the secondary (or start if needed) at the same pace, with the same game plan and style as Westbrook.... this is invaluable, especially given how young and athletic and energetic our bench is.

[mcscotty]

Assuming the ankle heels to 100% and he’s not rushed back , I think it’s kind of nice to give russ’ knee a week or two off just to be safe.

Haha!! I agree. No need to rush Russ back at all.

[bondom34]

Assuming the ankle heels to 100% and he’s not rushed back , I think it’s kind of nice to give russ’ knee a week or two off just to be safe.

Remember the Cavs game if you want wins .

[Old Man Game]

I can't get over how much more watchable this team is versus last year.

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[bondom34]

I can't get over how much more watchable this team is versus last year.

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They're still ugly to me when Westbrook is out, but guessing why...

[bondom34]

Oh and to say it not to go on about it but to say something nicer, because apparently I'm so terribly negative, Donovan has done a few things well. He's not a totally useless coach. He's still a very bad one.

[Pillendreher]

I can't get over how much more watchable this team is versus last year.

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It makes all the difference in the world when it looks like they compete and don't go through the motions. But who knows, the season is still young.

[Pillendreher]

I took a look at the expected shooting %'s compared to the actual numbers:



I wonder where more regression will happen: Our shooting or the opponents'?

[Old Man Game]

I can't get over how much more watchable this team is versus last year.

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It makes all the difference in the world when it looks like they compete and don't go through the motions. But who knows, the season is still young.

For me, not having to watch Melo isolate and Jab step a million times before lauching a twenty footer is nearly the whole difference.

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[Old Man Game]

I can't get over how much more watchable this team is versus last year.

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They're still ugly to me when Westbrook is out, but guessing why...

You get me.

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[Pillendreher]

I can't get over how much more watchable this team is versus last year.

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It makes all the difference in the world when it looks like they compete and don't go through the motions. But who knows, the season is still young.

For me, not having to watch Melo isolate and Jab step a million times before lauching a twenty footer is nearly the whole difference.

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Yeah, I'm good with just George taking those kinds of shots.