Deandre Ayton news and highlights

[Revived]

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Definitely plenty of room to improve defensively still.

[lilfishi22]

Ehhh happens to everyone. Not really an indication of under-performing individual defense

[bwgood77]

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[WeekapaugGroove]

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Plus I feel like there's some pretty easy growth to be had with Ayton. Something like boxing out or setting a little better screens are very fixable if he takes coaching. Plus he hasn't played with a good P&R point guard and they havent had him extend his range out to 3. Defensively he's never gonna be mutumbo but if he takes coaching and studies his opponents and system he can absolutely be passable.

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[wheezy]

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I'm into it but it isn't exactly a fair comparison considering that snippet leaves out a lot. Even if you're only comparing offense (Towns had 2x the blocks...) Towns was making over a 3 a game and still had that high of a TS%.

[bwgood77]

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I'm into it but it isn't exactly a fair comparison considering that snippet leaves out a lot. Even if you're only comparing offense (Towns had 2x the blocks...) Towns was making over a 3 a game and still had that high of a TS%.

Yeah...the 3s are nice to have, but ultimately the better the TS%, the more efficient the points, though you could argue the 3 pt shooting makes it easier for others to drive to the rim for easy buckets if Ayton pulls out a big to guard him at the 3 pt line.

But yeah, we knew the blocks. Of course those get left out while he's making his case though, and he does mention the lack of defense part which includes blocks.

[WeekapaugGroove]

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nba/2018/11/30/18118743/deandre-ayton-defense-wendell-carter-jaren-jackson

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[wheezy]

A bit of Ayton talk on the most recent Lowe Post:
http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=25401817

[bwgood77]

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nba/2018/11/30/18118743/deandre-ayton-defense-wendell-carter-jaren-jackson

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We knew most of this stuff, but it's still tough to read...

But basketball is a two-way game, and Ayton has also been as advertised on the defensive end. His defensive numbers in college raised red flags about his potential on that side of the ball in the NBA, and rather than allay those concerns, he has only exacerbated them through his first quarter-season. Ayton’s defensive issues at Arizona were a bit of a puzzle, given his seemingly ideal physique for the job, but they glared both on the court and on the stat sheet. Essentially, the freshman’s block and steal numbers in college—which typically have a strong relationship with a player’s block and steal numbers in the NBA—were far lower than previous big men taken first overall, and none of his statistical comps in the broader lottery range turned into franchise cornerstones in the pros.

The same weaknesses have appeared in his nascent NBA career—again, easily visible both on the court and on the stat sheet. That’s not to say he can’t recover, but we can check off some potential reasons for the issues. It is apparent, for instance, that Ayton’s defensive lag was not the result of a poor system or a lack of effort that would be soon solved at the next level. Instead, he might just have real, persistent problems that make him easy to exploit. He’s already produced his share of lowlights, like the time he was a nutmeg victim four times in one game against the Raptors, or the time a Darren Collison crossover dropped him to the floor.

But Ayton doesn’t just lapse in the odd play that makes the rounds on Twitter; he struggles game after game, possession after possession, to anticipate and navigate the most basic NBA sets. Pick-and-roll defense is tricky, especially for a rookie big—and extra especially for a rookie big in 2018, when offenses can spread the floor around a point guard who can sink 25-foot 3s like layups.

This is alarming:

Ayton’s various failings coalesce into one broader illustrative statistic: When he defends an attempt within 6 feet of the hoop, opponents are shooting 65.5 percent, the highest for any player who’s faced at least 100 such shots. (Second and third from the bottom, respectively, are Nemanja Bjelica and Enes Kanter, who don’t quite serve as role models for aspiring rim protectors.) Carter and Jaren Jackson Jr. rank fourth and seventh, respectively, with allowed field goal percentages hovering around 50 percent.

A player’s success rate when defending an attempt within 6 feet is fairly stable year to year, as stingy at-rim defenders generally remain stingy at-rim defenders, and the most generous at-rim defenders generally remain generous at-rim defenders. And second, even a quarter-season of games is a useful sample to forecast rookies’ paths. This data extends back to the 2013-14 season at NBA.com/Stats, and in that span, rookies as effective as Carter and Jackson within 6 feet this early in the season include Joel Embiid, Steven Adams, and Kristaps Porzingis. (Jahlil Okafor is also among that group; it’s not a perfectly predictive measure.) Conversely, Ayton has by far the highest allowed field goal percentage among high-volume bigs in the sample; his only company in the upper 60s is wings like Kyle Kuzma and Jabari Parker.

One of the reasons opposing players finish so easily over and around Ayton is that he doesn’t block many shots. It’s not a surprise, given the LaVine clips above, that he’s blocked just 2.2 percent of opposing 2-point shots. That ranks 36th out of 43 qualifying centers this season and, more broadly, just 87th out of 119 qualifying rookie centers since 1974-75, when the statistic was first recorded. Carter (at 5.3 percent) ranks 21st out of the 119, and fellow rookie Mo Bamba (6.6 percent) ranks eighth. Jackson doesn’t qualify as a center in Basketball-Reference, but he would place in the top five with a 7.9 percent block rate. And pay attention to the Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson, whose 9.6 percent rate would rank second all time, behind only 7-foot-7 Manute Bol’s, if he maintained it for the full season.

[Frank Lee]

Ouch

She-andre needs to buck up. With his physical tools he is a huge under achiever. He'll get a pass for a while, but there needs to be demonstrable improvement.

Think it will come ?

[MrMiyagi]

Some On/Off stats of current/past premier bigs during their rookie seasons:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01/on-off/2005
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gasolma01/on-off/2009
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01/on-off/2011
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02/on-off/2013
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/goberru01/on-off/2014
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01/on-off/2016
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jokicni01/on-off/2016
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/on-off/2017
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/on-off/2019

Interesting notes: Opponents played better offensively when rookie Dwight, Gasol, Cousins, Davis, and Towns were on the court - 3 of those 5 went on to be All-NBA Defenders. We aren't any better/worse defensively with Ayton on the court vs Ayton off the court. Ayton makes the 2nd greatest impact on his team as a rookie, Embiid being 1st.

[oddity]

Ayton is already a truly gifted package of athleticism and skill, but he doesn't have the killer instinct that Booker or Luka have in spades and it shows. The truly gifted scoring big men in this league attack space - Davis, Embiid, Boogie, Kat - but Ayton settles for jumpers. He seems afraid to put the ball down in front of him and blow by his defender Amare style. I've never seen Ayton do that................

[MrMiyagi]

Ayton is already a truly gifted package of athleticism and skill, but he doesn't have the killer instinct that Booker or Luka have in spades and it shows. The truly gifted scoring big men in this league attack space - Davis, Embiid, Boogie, Kat - but Ayton settles for jumpers. He seems afraid to put the ball down in front of him and blow by his defender Amare style. I've never seen Ayton do that................

Rookie Amar'e's On/Off numbers: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01/on-off/2003
Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01/shooting/2003
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 13.13%

Davis Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02/shooting/2013
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 34.76%

Embiid Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/shooting/2017
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 48.71%

Boogie Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01/shooting/2011
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 34.76%

Towns Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01/shooting/2016
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 44.70%

Ayton's Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/shooting/2019
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 29.91%

So Deandre is taking less shots from beyond 10 feet than everyone but STAT and also shoots the ball from every distance better than all of those players as rookies except for Towns and Embiid (outside of 16 feet). And I'm not sure how much driving those guys did as rookies outside of maybe Davis, because he had very good handles coming into the league.

Honestly, I think the biggest "problem" with Deandre Ayton isn't anything he actually does on a basketball court - it's people comparing him with their memory of other Bigs in their prime and not other Bigs as rookies.

[ATTL]

Amare as a rookie had no post game, could only go one direction, couldn't stop once he started and couldnt shoot.
Next year he could go both ways (giggity), stop and change directions if needed, and his jumper was coming along.
He was never the rebounder or defender heel should have been.

I don't see ayton ever dribble the ball to attack. I don't know if he can't do it or he's told not to. That would have been the way to attack that ogre the other night.
Amare was able to use a super quick first step to get around most bigs guarding him. Have not seen ayton even try it.

[oddity]

Ayton is already a truly gifted package of athleticism and skill, but he doesn't have the killer instinct that Booker or Luka have in spades and it shows. The truly gifted scoring big men in this league attack space - Davis, Embiid, Boogie, Kat - but Ayton settles for jumpers. He seems afraid to put the ball down in front of him and blow by his defender Amare style. I've never seen Ayton do that................

Rookie Amar'e's On/Off numbers: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01/on-off/2003
Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01/shooting/2003
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 13.13%

Davis Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02/shooting/2013
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 34.76%

Embiid Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/shooting/2017
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 48.71%

Boogie Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01/shooting/2011
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 34.76%

Towns Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01/shooting/2016
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 44.70%

Ayton's Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/shooting/2019
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 29.91%

So Deandre is taking less shots from beyond 10 feet than everyone but STAT and also shoots the ball from every distance better than all of those players as rookies except for Towns and Embiid (outside of 16 feet). And I'm not sure how much driving those guys did as rookies outside of maybe Davis, because he had very good handles coming into the league.

Honestly, I think the biggest "problem" with Deandre Ayton isn't anything he actually does on a basketball court - it's people comparing him with their memory of other Bigs in their prime and not other Bigs as rookies.

Can't just use shot clocks, man. I'm talkin times when Ayton took the ball into the paint in face up situations. I barely see it happen.

Ayton is still very young and I am by no means signing off on him, but he has to get more comfortable and expand his game to attacking space and getting into the lane himself. He's fantastic for his age, and could be incredible, but he has quite a road ahead of him.

[bwgood77]

Some On/Off stats of current/past premier bigs during their rookie seasons:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01/on-off/2005
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gasolma01/on-off/2009
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01/on-off/2011
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02/on-off/2013
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/goberru01/on-off/2014
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01/on-off/2016
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jokicni01/on-off/2016
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/on-off/2017
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/on-off/2019

Interesting notes: Opponents played better offensively when rookie Dwight, Gasol, Cousins, Davis, and Towns were on the court - 3 of those 5 went on to be All-NBA Defenders. We aren't any better/worse defensively with Ayton on the court vs Ayton off the court. Ayton makes the 2nd greatest impact on his team as a rookie, Embiid being 1st.

Great work and encouraging. The eye test is tough right now, but perhaps it was for all of them too.

[bwgood77]

Ayton is already a truly gifted package of athleticism and skill, but he doesn't have the killer instinct that Booker or Luka have in spades and it shows. The truly gifted scoring big men in this league attack space - Davis, Embiid, Boogie, Kat - but Ayton settles for jumpers. He seems afraid to put the ball down in front of him and blow by his defender Amare style. I've never seen Ayton do that................

Rookie Amar'e's On/Off numbers: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01/on-off/2003
Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01/shooting/2003
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 13.13%

Davis Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02/shooting/2013
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 34.76%

Embiid Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/shooting/2017
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 48.71%

Boogie Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01/shooting/2011
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 34.76%

Towns Rookie Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01/shooting/2016
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 44.70%

Ayton's Shot Chart: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/shooting/2019
% of FG taken outside 10 feet: 29.91%

So Deandre is taking less shots from beyond 10 feet than everyone but STAT and also shoots the ball from every distance better than all of those players as rookies except for Towns and Embiid (outside of 16 feet). And I'm not sure how much driving those guys did as rookies outside of maybe Davis, because he had very good handles coming into the league.

Honestly, I think the biggest "problem" with Deandre Ayton isn't anything he actually does on a basketball court - it's people comparing him with their memory of other Bigs in their prime and not other Bigs as rookies.

I agree he needs to be compared to other rookies. Unfortunately, defensively, he was compared to the other rookie bigs on The Ringer article and it didn't paint a good picture...in fact it was a very bad one. But his offense has been great, and that is the Suns, so we have that, and we have a good rebounder (though he has looked a little hesitant the last few games going up for them for whatever reason).

[sunsbg]

At least we have Ayton and not Bamba. The modern center who plays defense and shoots 3s. Despite the impressive pre-draft training videos is now looking like the player with biggest bust potential from the top picks. For me Mo Bamba is the C version of JJ, while Ayton is the C version of Tatum. Glad the Suns have the right one on the team this time.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Amare as a rookie had no post game, could only go one direction, couldn't stop once he started and couldnt shoot.
Next year he could go both ways (giggity), stop and change directions if needed, and his jumper was coming along.
He was never the rebounder or defender heel should have been.

I don't see ayton ever dribble the ball to attack. I don't know if he can't do it or he's told not to. That would have been the way to attack that ogre the other night.
Amare was able to use a super quick first step to get around most bigs guarding him. Have not seen ayton even try it.

Ayton needs to work on the dribble drive this summer. He's such a good mid range shooters guys have to run out on him so if he could pump fake and go to the rim he would get a bunch of easy hoops and fouls. It would be a huge step in his game.

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[bwgood77]

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