Is Russell Westbrook declining?

[Kizz Fastfists]

Wetsbrooks free throw shooting has been declining since last season. This isn’t a knee or conditioning issue.

Free throw shooting is very leg dependent in form. It is like pitching, swinging a bat or throwing a football. You can try to do it with only your arms, but you get significantly better results using your whole body, specifically starting the momentum with your legs. We are seeing the early signs of his knees giving out and they won't hold up much longer with the way he plays and his previous issues to knees.

Of course, it supports my theory that I made clear before the season that Russ is in decline so I'm naturally going to stick with it. It could also be viewed as confirmation bias at this point due to what could be considered a small sample. We'll see how the rest of the season goes. If Russ drops off significantly then it will become very obvious as OKC has a tough schedule the rest of the way. They have built a nice cushion by playing the easiest schedule in the NBA to this point, but it they continue to lose the vast majority of their games to teams .500 or better they are going to be in for a long second half of the season.

[Dadouv47]

He's declining but not as fast as it looks right now.

In other words, his prime was in 2015-2017 but he's still able to play way better than right now.

[slick_watts]

there is decline but he's also mentally weak. you can tell it's bothering him he can't do things. the indecision when teams leave him wide open is palpable. 60% ft and 20% 3pt is legs.

[oken]

Anybody here willing to rekindle the Baron Westbrook debate?
viewtopic.php?f=334&t=1637891&start=60

It even has some Patterson going downhill debate in it. These somehow seem unilateral in nature.

[getrichordie]

Wetsbrooks free throw shooting has been declining since last season. This isn’t a knee or conditioning issue.

Free throw shooting is very leg dependent in form. It is like pitching, swinging a bat or throwing a football. You can try to do it with only your arms, but you get significantly better results using your whole body, specifically starting the momentum with your legs. We are seeing the early signs of his knees giving out and they won't hold up much longer with the way he plays and his previous issues to knees.

Of course, it supports my theory that I made clear before the season that Russ is in decline so I'm naturally going to stick with it. It could also be viewed as confirmation bias at this point due to what could be considered a small sample. We'll see how the rest of the season goes. If Russ drops off significantly then it will become very obvious as OKC has a tough schedule the rest of the way. They have built a nice cushion by playing the easiest schedule in the NBA to this point, but it they continue to lose the vast majority of their games to teams .500 or better they are going to be in for a long second half of the season.

I support this theory as well. The amount of minutes Westbrook has played combined with how his play style is so reliant on athleticism (one-man fast-break; crazy dunks and finishes) should lead us to conclude that it’s not as sustainable as, let’s say, a Chris Paul.

I think the future of Westbrook lies in small ball. Let him post-up smaller guards (Curry, Paul, etc.) and force the defense to help.

I personally think he is showing improvement on being able to knock down an open catch and shoot 3.

It’s going to be a tough transition for him (see Slick’s observation below) and I think that’s what we are seeing now. He’s going to want to go back to what made him successful, but he has to try and make something sustainable work as well.

there is decline but he's also mentally weak. you can tell it's bothering him he can't do things. the indecision when teams leave him wide open is palpable. 60% ft and 20% 3pt is legs.

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[slick_watts]

Anybody here willing to rekindle the Baron Westbrook debate?
viewtopic.php?f=334&t=1637891&start=60

It even has some Patterson going downhill debate in it. These somehow seem unilateral in nature.

[getrichordie]

So, are we in agreement that Westbrook is in decline?


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[alessandrux]

So, are we in agreement that Westbrook is in decline?


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No.
It is inconclusive, except you want to dive into semantics and conclude that 'not getting better' has to mean decline and excludes the possibilty of stagnation.
I would not make a final decision until there is enough evidence (which means for me we have to wait and watch for the next ~40 games, except there is some re-injury inbetween).

[Pillendreher]

Something that we haven't considered yet is the mental part. Horne talked about this on the latest Thunder Buddies, saying that he was actually encouraged by this game with regard to Westbrook's play. What if this yet another episode of "Russ trying to adjust"?

[getrichordie]

So, are we in agreement that Westbrook is in decline?


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No.
It is inconclusive, except you want to dive into semantics and conclude that 'not getting better' has to mean decline and excludes the possibilty of stagnation.
I would not make a final decision until there is enough evidence (which means for me we have to wait and watch for the next ~40 games, except there is some re-injury inbetween).

Okay. I’ll bite. Let’s say it is stagnation. Where is the evidence for stagnation? And is there more evidence to support the opinion that he is in decline or is there more evidence to support the opinion that he “stagnating.”


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[bondom34]

Something that we haven't considered yet is the mental part. Horne talked about this on the latest Thunder Buddies, saying that he was actually encouraged by this game with regard to Westbrook's play. What if this yet another episode of "Russ trying to adjust"?

This was my exact sentiment. His TS hasn't been far off when you take out the first couple games and he's making passes I don't remember him making before. 2 games in the last 3 he passed up a shot on the final possession and 1 was to Abrines of all people. I don't think he's declining, I think he's changing.

[getrichordie]

Something that we haven't considered yet is the mental part. Horne talked about this on the latest Thunder Buddies, saying that he was actually encouraged by this game with regard to Westbrook's play. What if this yet another episode of "Russ trying to adjust"?

This was my exact sentiment. His TS hasn't been far off when you take out the first couple games and he's making passes I don't remember him making before. 2 games in the last 3 he passed up a shot on the final possession and 1 was to Abrines of all people. I don't think he's declining, I think he's changing.

I would posit that he is changing because he is declining.


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[bondom34]

I would disagree.

[getrichordie]

I would disagree.

It’s not a knock on your beloved Westbrook, Bondom.

A lot of players go through this transformation-esque phase. I just think Westbrook is going through his own version of said phase.

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[bondom34]

23/10/11 on .528 TS, 2.4 steals and a 31% usage. Box score O and D ratings of 108 and 97.

Most of these line up within expected range for career numbers, those are his numbers not counting his 1st 2 games and the 2 most recent.

[bondom34]

I would disagree.

It’s not a knock on your beloved Westbrook, Bondom.


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I know. I've placed you on ignore for a reason (But I still get notifications). See the above post.

[Pillendreher]

23/10/11 on .528 TS, 2.4 steals and a 31% usage. Box score O and D ratings of 108 and 97.

Most of these line up within expected range for career numbers, those are his numbers not counting his 1st 2 games and the 2 most recent.

That's a bit selective though, isn't it? We can't just ignore the bad games.

[bondom34]

23/10/11 on .528 TS, 2.4 steals and a 31% usage. Box score O and D ratings of 108 and 97.

Most of these line up within expected range for career numbers, those are his numbers not counting his 1st 2 games and the 2 most recent.

That's a bit selective though, isn't it? We can't just ignore the bad games.

I think taking out the 1st 2 games is fair as he was returning from injury.

Keeping the last 2 games he's 22/10/10, 4.4 TO, .513 TS, 2.4 steals, 30.8% usage and 105/98 ratings. And it's a 16 game sample, not something I'd call either way. Seems to be mostly in line with what you'd expect other than a bit of the shooting that I think will come around (at least more than it is now).

[getrichordie]

23/10/11 on .528 TS, 2.4 steals and a 31% usage. Box score O and D ratings of 108 and 97.

Most of these line up within expected range for career numbers, those are his numbers not counting his 1st 2 games and the 2 most recent.

Of course his O numbers are going to be nice. He’s still playing well and making good decisions (for the most part) with the ball in his hands and he’s been playing his usual part on D-boards. Paul George has been playing out of his mind. Adams has been a big part of helping the offense work better with O-boards, more post offense, and he’s able to kick the ball out more this year. Grant has been a revelation from 3 thanks to better ball movement and an improved shot and he’s been much better for us on offense and defense than Melo.(credit: Westbrook)

Ferguson is more of an offensive threat than Roberson, so he gets credit here too.

So his assist numbers are going to look good. He’s making smarter passes and moving ball better as well as playing more off-ball. I credit Westbrook for that.

His D-board numbers are going to look nice because he’s doing his job as most teams are schemed to get back on defense as soon as a shot goes up. Adams boxes out, Westbrook just has to secure the board and there are more opportunity for boards thanks to our elite defense.

And Westbrook gambles a lot for those steals, but he also does his job playing passing lanes for the most part.

When people say decline, they are talking mainly about athleticism and shot attempts.

Westbrook has clearly not looked like himself from an athletic standpoint. He hasn’t been his usual always-in-attack-mode self this year for a reason. His legs/knees are wearing out. He’s going to be able to turn it on and fight through the pain and stiffness when he feel like he needs to, but he (and Presti) have gotten smarter and realized that’s not good for his body long-term.

This is why you see Westbrook attempting more jump shots and passing more instead of driving to the lane and attacking.






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[bondom34]

He's getting to the rim at what's been about his average rate the last 4 years. And no, he hasn't looked himself. We're 16 games into the season.

Edit: But you're free to think what you want. You're on ignore so I'll be done.