I_Like_Dirt wrote:payitforward wrote:After the first 3 picks NBA GMs have no demonstrable ability to rank players in the draft in order of their likely performance in the league.
I disagree with this. The problem is that you don't actually see any particular team's list for the draft and there are a lot of factors that go into these kinds of rankings. ...
I don't quite follow your 2d sentence (or what came after it that I snipped), but this is not my opinion -- i.e. it's not something you agree with or disagree with.
If you look at the performance of NBA players, once you get past picks 1-3, there is no statistically significant correlation between where a player was picked & how good that player turns out to be.
Period. You don't get to "disagree."
GMs overall will over & over again take Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Austin Rivers, Terrence Ross, Meyers Leonard, Kendall Marshall, Evan Fournier, Royce White, Terrance Jones, Andrew Nicholson, Jared Sullinger, John Jenkins, Tony Wroten, Jared Cunningham, Arnett Moultrie, Fab Melo, Perry Jones, Festus Ezeli, & Jeff Taylor...
while they leave Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Will Barton, Tomas Satoransky, Jae Crowder, Kyle O'Quinn, etc. on the board.
That is because they are unable "to rank players in the draft in order of their likely performance in the league."
& it's more or less the same every year. I chose 2012 at random for my examples. Would you prefer 2011?
Jimmy Butler went #30. E'Twaun Moore went #55, IT went #60. But, Derrick Williams went #2, Vesely #6, Brandon Knight #8, Jimmer Fredette #10, etc. etc. etc.
This is not an opinion; you don't have to support it with reasoning. It's a picture of reality; all you have to do is point at it.
Why this is might be an interesting question, but whatever the reason is -- this is the way it is.