2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[Goudelock]

Watch on YouTube

[Young gun 6]

Doncic

<Big gap>

Jackson

<Big gap>

The rest.

There are going to be lots of good players in this year’s group, including Ayton and Bagley, but those 2 are going to be the game changing studs.

I think that's overstated. Ayton is a fantastic rookie. Bagley is emerging into a fantastic rookie. Bridges, Sexton, SGA, Knox are all getting better etc. While Doncic is the runaway ROY so far and clear cut best, the class is more grouped up than you're making it sound. JJJ is actually in a bit of a rookie wall last couple weeks and has had some terrible games, where as guys like SGA+Knox had rookie walls last month and are rebounding really well right now.

Bottom line is this draft class has 7-10 legit all star caliber guys in the future potentially, even if only 2 of them are probably surefire superstars (Doncic and Jackson).

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Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

Honest question; have you actually watched Ayton the last 6 weeks?

It seems like you haven’t if you think he has limited defensive upside. He’s already improved from bad to average in his first 3 months and was one of the best big man defenders in the last 6 weeks on the eye test and the stats.

It just seems a lot of people hear things, don’t actually watch the games and then run with them as facts not understanding players improve or aren’t limited to being exactly what they were as players in college.

[spanishninja]

I think that's overstated. Ayton is a fantastic rookie. Bagley is emerging into a fantastic rookie. Bridges, Sexton, SGA, Knox are all getting better etc. While Doncic is the runaway ROY so far and clear cut best, the class is more grouped up than you're making it sound. JJJ is actually in a bit of a rookie wall last couple weeks and has had some terrible games, where as guys like SGA+Knox had rookie walls last month and are rebounding really well right now.

Bottom line is this draft class has 7-10 legit all star caliber guys in the future potentially, even if only 2 of them are probably surefire superstars (Doncic and Jackson).

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

Honest question; have you actually watched Ayton the last 6 weeks?

It seems like you haven’t if you think he has limited defensive upside. He’s already improved from bad to average in his first 3 months and was one of the best big man defenders in the last 6 weeks on the eye test and the stats.

It just seems a lot of people hear things, don’t actually watch the games and then run with them as facts not understanding players improve or aren’t limited to being exactly what they were as players in college.

it's useless. people talk about the highlight plays but ignore Doncic being 7-21 from the field and missing all his shots in OT.

[bwgood77]

Doncic

<Big gap>

Jackson

<Big gap>

The rest.

There are going to be lots of good players in this year’s group, including Ayton and Bagley, but those 2 are going to be the game changing studs.

I think that's overstated. Ayton is a fantastic rookie. Bagley is emerging into a fantastic rookie. Bridges, Sexton, SGA, Knox are all getting better etc. While Doncic is the runaway ROY so far and clear cut best, the class is more grouped up than you're making it sound. JJJ is actually in a bit of a rookie wall last couple weeks and has had some terrible games, where as guys like SGA+Knox had rookie walls last month and are rebounding really well right now.

Bottom line is this draft class has 7-10 legit all star caliber guys in the future potentially, even if only 2 of them are probably surefire superstars (Doncic and Jackson).

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

I agree he is a poor defender, but how can someone be a poor defender AND have limited defensive upside? I mean I am unsure about a lot of his defensive instincts and have been frustrated with him on that side watching him at AZ and for the Suns, but he certainly has upside. I have my own doubts about what he can achieve, but if he watches film, accepts coaching, and puts in the work, he has quite a bit of upside if he wants it bad enough. He appears to lack that inner fire that someone like Doncic has, but he also quietly puts up 26 and 18 with 3 blocks and 2 steals. He's a smart player on offense, makes good reads, so there is certainly at least a decent chance he becomes a capable defender with work and study.

He's already shown glimpses of good help/team defense at times recently, which surprised me because I had not seen it before.

[Stribor]

Great, great rookie class and I can see 2 hofers and few perennial all stars.
Doncic is amazing, and I think he has plenty of upside - especially in his athletic abilities.
Ayton could become one of best centers in the league, and a hofer if he manages to improve defense to his attacking level.
JJJ is absolutely great - rookie with most natural development curve .. Athletics are here, he is improving technique and you can see that his bbIQ will easily grow with experience.
Bagley - I did not like before the draft, but I can see all the upside now.
Trae - could become a complete surprise in his sophomore year. Plenty of space to grow on athletic side, decision making will also improve and he will learn to play within himself.
Knox, both Bridges, Landrey, Sexton all look like at least a decent starters in a few years....

[The_Hater]

I think that's overstated. Ayton is a fantastic rookie. Bagley is emerging into a fantastic rookie. Bridges, Sexton, SGA, Knox are all getting better etc. While Doncic is the runaway ROY so far and clear cut best, the class is more grouped up than you're making it sound. JJJ is actually in a bit of a rookie wall last couple weeks and has had some terrible games, where as guys like SGA+Knox had rookie walls last month and are rebounding really well right now.

Bottom line is this draft class has 7-10 legit all star caliber guys in the future potentially, even if only 2 of them are probably surefire superstars (Doncic and Jackson).

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

Honest question; have you actually watched Ayton the last 6 weeks?

It seems like you haven’t if you think he has limited defensive upside. He’s already improved from bad to average in his first 3 months and was one of the best big man defenders in the last 6 weeks on the eye test and the stats.

It just seems a lot of people hear things, don’t actually watch the games and then run with them as facts not understanding players improve or aren’t limited to being exactly what they were as players in college.

Do you know how irritating it is for a home team fan to ask or question if you’ve watched their guy play just because they don’t share the same opinion?

That’s fine if you think he has terrific defensive upside but I strongly disagree. He doesn’t do a great job protecting the rim and he isn’t overly mobile on the perimeter/pick and roll. And usually with bigs, the defensive studs stand out immediately. Embiid was an all-defensive type Center from game 1 of his NBA career. Capela, Gobert and others looked like great rim protectors out of the gate and grew from there. I’m not saying that Ayton is J.Okafor bad, he’s clearly not, but IMO he’s never going to make an all defensive team and be an elite guy in the middle and I’m quite comfident with that opinion at this point in time. Offensively, I think he’s quite good and overall I wouldn’t be surprised if he became an allstar. I just don’t see a 2 way stud. Jackson on the other hand looks like he’ll be a defensive monster in a short time.

I get that you’re looking at Ayton with rose coloured glasses as a Sun’s fan and see the absolute best case scenario (and usually beyond) for him but when people have different opinions, don’t assume they haven’t seen the guy play much. Sometimes they’re just looking at the guy without the same degree of tint.

[The_Hater]

I think that's overstated. Ayton is a fantastic rookie. Bagley is emerging into a fantastic rookie. Bridges, Sexton, SGA, Knox are all getting better etc. While Doncic is the runaway ROY so far and clear cut best, the class is more grouped up than you're making it sound. JJJ is actually in a bit of a rookie wall last couple weeks and has had some terrible games, where as guys like SGA+Knox had rookie walls last month and are rebounding really well right now.

Bottom line is this draft class has 7-10 legit all star caliber guys in the future potentially, even if only 2 of them are probably surefire superstars (Doncic and Jackson).

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

I agree he is a poor defender, but how can someone be a poor defender AND have limited defensive upside? I mean I am unsure about a lot of his defensive instincts and have been frustrated with him on that side watching him at AZ and for the Suns, but he certainly has upside. I have my own doubts about what he can achieve, but if he watches film, accepts coaching, and puts in the work, he has quite a bit of upside if he wants it bad enough. He appears to lack that inner fire that someone like Doncic has, but he also quietly puts up 26 and 18 with 3 blocks and 2 steals. He's a smart player on offense, makes good reads, so there is certainly at least a decent chance he becomes a capable defender with work and study.

He's already shown glimpses of good help/team defense at times recently, which surprised me because I had not seen it before.

He’s not a very good rim protector. If he had that as a base, even while struggling on other aspects of defense, I might think differentl about his defensive potential. I don’t think rim protection and shot blocking are learned traits, they’re more instinctive. The other aspects of defense on the back end sometimes take more time.

But as I said in my other post, this isn’t J.Okafor bad, I just don’t see Embiid/Gobert either. I see something right in the middle of all that. Average. But maybe he surprises me and exceeds my expectations.

[Johnny Firpo]

it's useless. people talk about the highlight plays but ignore Doncic being 7-21 from the field and missing all his shots in OT.

Yes, because people base their opinion on a single game. Oh, wait, they don't, it's you who does that.

[The_Hater]

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

Honest question; have you actually watched Ayton the last 6 weeks?

It seems like you haven’t if you think he has limited defensive upside. He’s already improved from bad to average in his first 3 months and was one of the best big man defenders in the last 6 weeks on the eye test and the stats.

It just seems a lot of people hear things, don’t actually watch the games and then run with them as facts not understanding players improve or aren’t limited to being exactly what they were as players in college.

it's useless. people talk about the highlight plays but ignore Doncic being 7-21 from the field and missing all his shots in OT.

Useless is claiming that a player shoots 7/21 every game when the stats clearly say otherwise. His TS% is above the league average.

But whatever narrative makes you feel better I guess. One other Sun’s fan apparently thinks your post was brilliant.

[MemphisX]

Doncic

<Big gap>

Jackson

<Big gap>

The rest.

There are going to be lots of good players in this year’s group, including Ayton and Bagley, but those 2 are going to be the game changing studs.

I think that's overstated. Ayton is a fantastic rookie. Bagley is emerging into a fantastic rookie. Bridges, Sexton, SGA, Knox are all getting better etc. While Doncic is the runaway ROY so far and clear cut best, the class is more grouped up than you're making it sound. JJJ is actually in a bit of a rookie wall last couple weeks and has had some terrible games, where as guys like SGA+Knox had rookie walls last month and are rebounding really well right now.

Bottom line is this draft class has 7-10 legit all star caliber guys in the future potentially, even if only 2 of them are probably surefire superstars (Doncic and Jackson).

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

Eh, Ayton's defense has been pretty good lately. He has probably been better than Luka defensively. No way KAT was doing what Ayton is doing as a rookie.

[MemphisX]

Doncic

<Big gap>

Jackson

<Big gap>

The rest.

There are going to be lots of good players in this year’s group, including Ayton and Bagley, but those 2 are going to be the game changing studs.

I would say Doncic, Ayton and Jackson are on the same tier. Ayton also already has some good young pieces around him. They all have positives and negatives. I think it could go either way and am not ruling out Bagley forcing his way into this tier.

[The_Hater]

I think that's overstated. Ayton is a fantastic rookie. Bagley is emerging into a fantastic rookie. Bridges, Sexton, SGA, Knox are all getting better etc. While Doncic is the runaway ROY so far and clear cut best, the class is more grouped up than you're making it sound. JJJ is actually in a bit of a rookie wall last couple weeks and has had some terrible games, where as guys like SGA+Knox had rookie walls last month and are rebounding really well right now.

Bottom line is this draft class has 7-10 legit all star caliber guys in the future potentially, even if only 2 of them are probably surefire superstars (Doncic and Jackson).

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

Eh, Ayton's defense has been pretty good lately. He has probably been better than Luka defensively. No way KAT was doing what Ayton is doing as a rookie.

KAT’s rookie stats are better than Ayton’s across the board. And he wasn’t playing for the worst team in the conference either. That’s just flat out wrong.

[anish23]

It's a toss up between Ayton and Jackson, but if you wanted me to pick one i'd go with Ayton. If you wanted me to pick one for my team Jazz, i'd go with Jackson.

And obviously DONCIC.

[Young gun 6]

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

Honest question; have you actually watched Ayton the last 6 weeks?

It seems like you haven’t if you think he has limited defensive upside. He’s already improved from bad to average in his first 3 months and was one of the best big man defenders in the last 6 weeks on the eye test and the stats.

It just seems a lot of people hear things, don’t actually watch the games and then run with them as facts not understanding players improve or aren’t limited to being exactly what they were as players in college.

Do you know how irritating it is for a home team fan to ask or question if you’ve watched their guy play just because they don’t share the same opinion?

That’s fine if you think he has terrific defensive upside but I strongly disagree. He doesn’t do a great job protecting the rim and he isn’t overly mobile on the perimeter/pick and roll. And usually with bigs, the defensive studs stand out immediately. Embiid was an all-defensive type Center from game 1 of his NBA career. Capela, Gobert and others looked like great rim protectors out of the gate and grew from there. I’m not saying that Ayton is J.Okafor bad, he’s clearly not, but IMO he’s never going to make an all defensive team and be an elite guy in the middle and I’m quite comfident with that opinion at this point in time. Offensively, I think he’s quite good and overall I wouldn’t be surprised if he became an allstar. I just don’t see a 2 way stud. Jackson on the other hand looks like he’ll be a defensive monster in a short time.

I get that you’re looking at Ayton with rose coloured glasses as a Sun’s fan and see the absolute best case scenario (and usually beyond) for him but when people have different opinions, don’t assume they haven’t seen the guy play much. Sometimes they’re just looking at the guy without the same degree of tint.

Who ever mentioned all nba defensive team? You don’t have to be an all nba defensive team to be a good defender in the future. There is only 3 centres in the league that make those teams.

What I’m saying is straight away Ayton looked bad, as he did in college but the last 6 weeks around 15 games or so he’s looked awesome defensively in most games.

The stats back that up, which kind of indicate you haven’t seen him in that stretch if you think he has no interior or rim protecting defense.

Defensive rating by month:
OCT: 114.4
NOV: 109.3
DEC: 106.0

Ayton's DFG% <6 ft. from the basket by month:
OCT: 70.9%
NOV: 62.4%
DEC: 58.9%

BLK% by month:
OCT: 1.3%
NOV: 2.5%
DEC: 3.1%

‘Big development to continue monitoring: The past four games, Deandre Ayton is only allowing his matchups to shoot 38.7 percent against him.

Andre Drummond is the only other big who is holding a better DFG% (minimum 15 shots against)’

This was posted the other day too:
‘Right now he's allowing 47.1% for the season and 45% for December

Jusuf Nurkic (44.0%)
Joel Embiid (45.0%)
Karl Anthony Towns (46.3%)
Deandre Ayton (47.1%)
Steven Adams (48.1%)
Rudy Gobert (48.8%)
Clint Capela (48.9%)
DeAndre Jordan (49.8%)’



My thoughts are he had the upside to be a positive defender and that’s all he needs when he clearly has elite offensive potential.

An above average defender with elite offense would be better than KAT and a lot of other big men so not sure why you think he has to be that to be an awesome, even top 20 player in the league some day.

Jackson has more defensive upside but I think most unbiased people could see Ayton has way more of an offensive game with more upside to come. It’s also not as hard to look better defensively from day 1 when you have Marc Gasol beside you on defense inside who is nearly co leading the league in DRPM.

He is literally putting up 20pts with ease as a rookie with limited offensive plays set for him and a rookie 2nd or 3rd string PG starting. If he can even get to average on defense he’ll be a multiple time all star and top 25 player in the league. There is hope he can be better than that however if he switches on constantly on defense and allows himself to continue learning as he has done over the first 3 months in an NBA regime.

[Young gun 6]

Ayton is good, but he’s a poor defender with limited defensive upside and while he’s already a solid offensive player, he plays a position that doesn’t move the needle much in today’s perimeter based NBA. KAT has struggled to get the Wolves in the playoffs and he was much better than Ayton with better potential at the same age. And he’s not even as good as AD.

Eh, Ayton's defense has been pretty good lately. He has probably been better than Luka defensively. No way KAT was doing what Ayton is doing as a rookie.

KAT’s rookie stats are better than Ayton’s across the board. And he wasn’t playing for the worst team in the conference either. That’s just flat out wrong.

In their first 34 games:
Minnesota was 12-22
Phoenix 8-26

KAT:
16.2 points
9.5 rebounds
1.1 assists
0.7 steals
1.9 blocks
2.1 turnovers
52.68% FG
35.71% 3PT
82.52% FT
58% TS

Ayton:
16.6 points
10.9 rebounds
2.3 assists
0.6 steals
0.9 blocks
1.9 turnovers
59.9% FG
0% 3pt
77.0% FT
62.2% TS

They are pretty much equal through their first 34 games in the league. Let's compare at the end of the season if you're going on the KAT beating Ayton across the board in stats because that's yet to be proven and he definitely didn't beat him across the board in his first 34 games.

[jcsunsfan]

Watch on YouTube

[Hephaestus]

Post game weak af

[nikster]

Watch on YouTube

There isn’t that much that jumps out at me. He’s gonna be getting easy buckets in off lobs, and put backs. And he can hit a face up jumper. He has limited handles and his post game his limited (he had like 2 post moves that game that were simple hooks). Doesn’t seem like he’s anywhere close to being a player where you can just give him the ball and go to work. And if he can’t get there offensively he won’t have an all star level impact with mediocre D.

That said, he is already extremely effective in his current role, is a great offensive rebounders, and centres tend to take long to develop offensively.

[sunsbg]

Watch on YouTube

There isn’t that much that jumps out at me. He’s gonna be getting easy buckets in off lobs, and put backs. And he can hit a face up jumper. He has limited handles and his post game his limited (he had like 2 post moves that game that were simple hooks). Doesn’t seem like he’s anywhere close to being a player where you can just give him the ball and go to work. And if he can’t get there offensively he won’t have an all star level impact with mediocre D.

That said, he is already extremely effective in his current role, is a great offensive rebounders, and centres tend to take long to develop offensively.

He's also a good passer for a C. Inside/outside game, should not be that hard to build around such player.

[jcsunsfan]

Watch on YouTube

There isn’t that much that jumps out at me. He’s gonna be getting easy buckets in off lobs, and put backs. And he can hit a face up jumper. He has limited handles and his post game his limited (he had like 2 post moves that game that were simple hooks). Doesn’t seem like he’s anywhere close to being a player where you can just give him the ball and go to work. And if he can’t get there offensively he won’t have an all star level impact with mediocre D.

That said, he is already extremely effective in his current role, is a great offensive rebounders, and centres tend to take long to develop offensively.

Man. If can look at that and see nothing special, then I really have to wonder what you are watching.