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[THE J0KER]

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538 also has ELO projections which might be more accurate. Those are based on play to date, schedule, etc. The CARMELO projections are based on how good their system ranks the players on teams. I always look at both to see how they differ...which is quite a bit in some places.

They put "CARMELO" as their default forecast, so I use it to represent 538 projections. Overall, no big difference, but for some teams that difference is notable:

[bwgood77]

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Spoiler:

538 also has ELO projections which might be more accurate. Those are based on play to date, schedule, etc. The CARMELO projections are based on how good their system ranks the players on teams. I always look at both to see how they differ...which is quite a bit in some places.

They put "CARMELO" as their default forecast, so I use it to represent 538 projections. Overall, no big difference, but for some teams that difference is notable:

Yeah, so the Spurs and Clippers would make it over the Pelicans and Blazers with ELO, so they probably fall somewhere in between projections, so it will likely be close. Kings would be right there too.

And then in the east, Miami would be in over Washington. It will be interesting to see which projections come closer.

[THE J0KER]

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[gh123]

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Utah making PO, really? That high as well? Highly doubtful.

[THE J0KER]

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[spoiler]

[/spoiler]

Utah making PO, really? That high as well? Highly doubtful.

There are many other calculations here from CBS and 538 I also can't understand, especially on the West. I understand that based on last season NBA #1 record they expect a big improvement from Houston, but I don't understand based on what they both projected Utah as TOP3 team on the West if we count only record on remaining games. Or how they projected such significant drop in the rest of the season for Kings and Mavs, teams without own 2019 draft pick, and with no reason to drop their current competitive intensity? And fact that 538 predicted for Spurs 20-28 in remaining games, but CBS 27-21, tells that at least one of them will make a big mistake in that case.

Here are projections for the rest of the season's remaining games. In red was colored projected percentages which are hard to understand based on what it is projected:

[gh123]

Spoiler:

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[spoiler]

[/spoiler]

Utah making PO, really? That high as well? Highly doubtful.

There are many other calculations here from CBS and 538 I also can't understand, especially on the West. I understand that based on last season NBA #1 record they expect a big improvement from Houston, but I don't understand based on what they both projected Utah as TOP3 team on the West if we count only record on remaining games. Or how they projected such significant drop in the rest of the season for Kings and Mavs, teams without own 2019 draft pick, and with no reason to drop their current competitive intensity? And fact that 538 predicted for Spurs 20-28 in remaining games, but CBS 27-21, tells that at least one of them will make a big mistake in that case.

Here are projections for the rest of the season's remaining games. In red was colored projected percentages which are hard to understand based on what it is projected:

Houston, Utah and Nola look highly unlikely to me. Dallas might start tanking though, we still get our pick if it's top5. Our schedule first 2 months was kinda ez. Last week we started playing better teams and racking up those L's.

[THE J0KER]

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[THE J0KER]

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According to CBS and 538 both, this season will be without any team winning 60+ games. But such thing happens only once since 1980, in 2000-01 regular season (if we ignore 2 lockout seasons)! To achieve 60th win GSW needs at least 36-9 record in the rest of the season, Bucks 35-12, Raptors 34-11, Nuggets 37-11... etc... Healthy Warriors seems like the only realistic hope.

FUN FACTS which is not even fun anymore: 10 teams on the West over .500 (only 2 under .450) only 5 on the East (7 under 0.450, 4 under .320).

[THE J0KER]

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After the end of 2018, the biggest winners compared to the preseason predictions are Nuggets and Kings from the West, and Bucks and Pacers from the East. Many bravely predicted for the Nuggets TOP5 on the West, and TOP3 for the Bucks on the East, but nobody saw them on the top of their conferences. Kings were seen as the only team without single TOP100 player and as 2nd worst behind Atlanta, but despite currently out of TOP8 and playoff spot on the West, they are over 0.500 and competing for a playoff, while Pacers stunned everyone's 2nd year in the row with great results despite low expectations.

CBS must be very proud of their predictions/projections tools when putting these projections on their official NBA standings page. But they must make at least some manual corrections on some of these results. Nuggets despite being a team with biggest injury problems so far still achieved a great 23-11 record. Starter Millsap is back on last game, and other two injured starters Harris and Barton are expected to play once again already since this week, while Wizards, with their disappointing 14-23 record so far just lose their franchise player John Wall for a season. But somehow, CBS calculate for Denver negative 23-25, and for Washington positive 24-21 record in the rest of the season!?!

[THE J0KER]

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[THE J0KER]

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I opened a thread yesterday (with a poll) Are fascinating Western Conference 14-teams race for a playoff spot suddenly dropped into 2-teams race (LAC vs UTA)? with a bold claim and conclusion that Western Conference race for TOP8 is almost over now, with only Utah realistic chances to join (instead Clippers probably). Only some TOP8 teams franchise player long-term injury or some game-changing blockbuster trade can change lottery fate of current #10-14 ranked teams on the West.

[bwgood77]

Utah making PO, really? That high as well? Highly doubtful.

There are many other calculations here from CBS and 538 I also can't understand, especially on the West. I understand that based on last season NBA #1 record they expect a big improvement from Houston, but I don't understand based on what they both projected Utah as TOP3 team on the West if we count only record on remaining games. Or how they projected such significant drop in the rest of the season for Kings and Mavs, teams without own 2019 draft pick, and with no reason to drop their current competitive intensity? And fact that 538 predicted for Spurs 20-28 in remaining games, but CBS 27-21, tells that at least one of them will make a big mistake in that case.

Here are projections for the rest of the season's remaining games. In red was colored projected percentages which are hard to understand based on what it is projected:

Houston, Utah and Nola look highly unlikely to me. Dallas might start tanking though, we still get our pick if it's top5. Our schedule first 2 months was kinda ez. Last week we started playing better teams and racking up those L's.

Utah's played the toughest schedule so far and they made a big run last half of last year to move up a lot in the standings.

[gh123]

There are many other calculations here from CBS and 538 I also can't understand, especially on the West. I understand that based on last season NBA #1 record they expect a big improvement from Houston, but I don't understand based on what they both projected Utah as TOP3 team on the West if we count only record on remaining games. Or how they projected such significant drop in the rest of the season for Kings and Mavs, teams without own 2019 draft pick, and with no reason to drop their current competitive intensity? And fact that 538 predicted for Spurs 20-28 in remaining games, but CBS 27-21, tells that at least one of them will make a big mistake in that case.

Here are projections for the rest of the season's remaining games. In red was colored projected percentages which are hard to understand based on what it is projected:

Houston, Utah and Nola look highly unlikely to me. Dallas might start tanking though, we still get our pick if it's top5. Our schedule first 2 months was kinda ez. Last week we started playing better teams and racking up those L's.

Utah's played the toughest schedule so far and they made a big run last half of last year to move up a lot in the standings.

Maaan, I bet Utah to beat Bucks last night and Rubio got injured in 5 minutes... They do have a roster full of injury-prone players, so it's very tough to predict where they finish. But I wouldn't bet anything on them finishing top 4.

[THE J0KER]

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During this week all teams will match at least 41st played game (half of the season), so I will create a special "checkpoint" standings with frozen W-L record for every team after their game #41.

[bwgood77]

Houston, Utah and Nola look highly unlikely to me. Dallas might start tanking though, we still get our pick if it's top5. Our schedule first 2 months was kinda ez. Last week we started playing better teams and racking up those L's.

Utah's played the toughest schedule so far and they made a big run last half of last year to move up a lot in the standings.

Maaan, I bet Utah to beat Bucks last night and Rubio got injured in 5 minutes... They do have a roster full of injury-prone players, so it's very tough to predict where they finish. But I wouldn't bet anything on them finishing top 4.

Yeah, I definitely wouldn't project top 4. I'm just talking playoffs. Those projections quoted were just rankings for remaining games though, not final standings (it looks like).

[gh123]

Utah's played the toughest schedule so far and they made a big run last half of last year to move up a lot in the standings.

Maaan, I bet Utah to beat Bucks last night and Rubio got injured in 5 minutes... They do have a roster full of injury-prone players, so it's very tough to predict where they finish. But I wouldn't bet anything on them finishing top 4.

Yeah, I definitely wouldn't project top 4. I'm just talking playoffs. Those projections quoted were just rankings for remaining games though, not final standings (it looks like).

I see, that makes a lot of sense.

[bwgood77]

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[THE J0KER]

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[THE J0KER]

Here are NBA standings with a record for every team after their 41st game (half of the season):

[THE J0KER]

Unexpected Denver lead of Western Conference is over, and as expected Warriors take the lead with small chances that anyone can overtake them at the end. With Houston and Lakers injury problems and Oklahoma slumping, Nuggets probably should stay TOP2 at least until March. Utah reached TOP8 record for the first time this season, and if I must to chose one team on West out of current TOP9 to miss the playoff, it would probably be the deepest one, but starless - Los Angeles Clippers.