2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[jcsunsfan]

Ayton and Doncic are both on pace to win ROY. If you think one is ahead of the other at this point in time ur just being a fanboy

They play differently and have different skill sets. You really cant compare the two.

Theres a lot of season left to go. It will be a fun race.

Lol. No way.
You are the only fanboy.

Ayton is good for a pick number 1.

Doncic is awesome for number 3.

Ayton needs a team for him in order to being important.

Luka is the engine of his team.

Ayton is Kat/ Whiteside level of player. Nothing of being ashamed , but not a MVP .

With Luka you can believe on him or not. But you would think that the roof is higher. MVP is far away but you could see a path.

So as a Phoenix fanbase , you screw , you choose a pretty Mustang instead of a Tank, for going to the war.

You put a limit on your future.Not this year or next, just in the moment of giving Ayton a Max, right there you are the new Minnesota, Miami or Detroit.


Doncic is 3 level above anyone's else.

GET OVER IT.

LUKA IS THE ROY, No matter what.

Check the votes as a clear example.

Ayton will be MVP / NBA all first team before Doncic. That much I guarantee. At the end of the day Doncic is Euro. Euros just aren’t as good except Dirk who was a once in a lifetime outlier.

Even tho he will win ROTY I don’t think I’ve seen a rookie this overhyped as Doncic. Maybe Lonzo but that was just more how he’s not good rather than the second coming. He’s decent and certainly confident. He’ll go far but will never be the best or second best player on a championship team nor genuine MVP contender.

As a Suns fan, I disagree with this post. It is patently wrong to discount Doncic because he is a Euro player. His play at the moment is absolutely worthy of ROY. I do believe that Ayton is right there with him. It is impossible to tell how much Doncic will improve from here. He will be an all-time great if he just continues his present type of performance, maybe improves his efficiency a little. It seems to me that it is likely he will do that. Comparing Doncic to Lonzo is just wrong. There is absolutely nothing broken about Doncic's game.

[Pumpkin17]

I think at this point speaking about ROY Ayton has made things interesting again. Personally I don't see him as a winner right now, Doncic has a very different role in a more mature system with veterans well paid and ready to contribute to a team actually trying to compete. It is not the same to get the leader role in that kind of team or in a team like the suns. That said, he surely is improving and can very well be ahead of Doncic at the end of the year statistically and win ROY.

The real gap between the two is as pospects. Better, prospects that can lead you to winning. This is NBA in 2019 and people need to start realizing that the last big winning FMVP was Duncan in 2005, who was on a completely different tier as a defender wrt Ayton. You have to go back to Shaq to find another comparable name. And we are speaking about Shaq, who was just unstoppable. The league evolved and bigs are not that important today, it is what it is. Davis, KAT, Embiid are not destroying the league right now. Ayton could very well being ROY and that wouldn't mean anything, any team in the NBA would draft Doncic first right now if they are serious about winning.

*Nowitzki deserves this asterisk as the last "big" winning of course but Ayton will not become that kind of big...

[jcsunsfan]

Doncic plays with the ball in his hands. It is in his power to make his game good any night he chooses. Ayton is a center. He has to receive the ball from someone before he can create on his own. The Suns have no point guard and no one that is really very effective at getting him the ball regularly. He has managed to make himself effective and get points by some of the best offensive rebounding I have ever seen in the NBA. However, it is not Doncic's fault that Ayton doesn't have a pg. And its the nature of being a center. So advantage Doncic so far. And it is well-deserved.

[The-Power]

Rookie-RAPM Update, based on shadow's RAPM (as of 12/26/2018):

Spoiler:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2D-V8DUQn0O/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

DISCLAIMER: Do not take the numbers at face value. This is neither a ranking of the players' overall goodness nor a ranking of the players' values as prospects.

Selection Criteria: ≥ 25 GP, ≥ 15 MPG

Name | ORAPM (Rank) | DRAPM (Rank) | RAPM (Rank)

Huerter, Kevin | 0.64 (105) | 1.04 (42) | 1.68 (44)
Brunson, Jalen | 0.42 (129) | 0.94 (51) | 1.36 (56)
Okogie, Josh | -0.06 (248) | 0.81 (65) | 0.75 (111)
Doncic, Luka | 0.92 (64) | -0.25 (306) | 0.67 (118)
Hutchison, C. | -0.49 (346) | 0.84 (62) | 0.35 (168)
Clark, Gary | 0.62 (108) | -0.50 (361) | 0.12 (211)
Brown, Bruce | -1.00 (408) | 1.10 (37) | 0.10 (214)
Bridges, Mikal | -0.71 (374) | 0.78 (71) | 0.07 (221)
Jackson, Jaren | -1.54 (446) | 1.60 (12) | 0.06 (223)
Gilg.-Alex., Shai | 0.29 (154) | -0.32 (321) | -0.03 (246)
Bridges, Miles | -0.11 (267) | -0.27 (314) | -0.38 (305)
Robinson, Mit. | -0.19 (294) | -0.32 (321) | -0.51 (318)
Ayton, DeAndre | -0.47 (344) | -0.16 (283) | -0.63 (335)
Carter, Wendell | -1.95 (459) | 0.39 (128) | -1.59 (429)
Bagley, Marvin | -0.32 (322) | -1.25 (444) | -1.57 (432)
Trier, Allonzo | -0.79 (386) | -1.22 (442) | -2.11 (445)
Shamet, Landry | -0.35 (326) | -1.83 (460) | -2.18 (448)
Young, Trae | -1.38 (437) | -1.70 (459) | -3.08 (460)
Knox, Kevin | -0.72 (375) | -2.41 (467) | -3.13 (461)
Bamba, Mo | -2.67 (467) | -0.98 (424) | -3.65 (463)
Sexton, Collin | -1.60 (449) | -2.22 (465) | -3.82 (464)

(Ranking out of 468 Players (Total))

Can you tell me a little bit about who is/what is shadow, and how does this differ, what does it want to accomplish?

Shadow is the name of the user on the APBR forum (was also active in RealGM once) who runs the regressions to calculate RAPM and updates the spreadsheet regularly (link posted in the spoiler tags). As far as I know, it's the only regularly updated and publicly available source of RAPM at the moment. Obviously the other source for such numbers is ESPN's RPM, which uses different priors (notably a heavy influence of the boxscore especially at the beginning of the season) and is basically xRAPM (an RAPM variant). I can't tell you exactly what prior he uses as I haven't checked it out in detail, but he might have posted that on the forums. Generally speaking, it's just RAPM and does what other such calculations seek to accomplish. Or were you more generally interested in what RAPM is/does in the first place?

[LukaV]

Johnny Firpo, there have been plenty of posts here on RealGM (this thread and others) and elsewhere (like Reddit) where people have put down other rookies, especially Ayton and Young, and pointing out how much better Dončić is and will be, and mocking the Kings&Hawks for their draft decisions.

And there's no need to accuse me or anyone else for fishing for and1s, I've been a member of this board for a long time and I haven't fished for and1s before (among other things, you can see my post count is low, so I'm not posting here hoping to collect and1s) nor am I doing that now.

[juanc]

I wish everyone here a happy 2019!
Specially to the Hawks fans, who I belive will try to forget 2018 as soon as possible...

Spoiler:

Just kidding guys! It's ok to start a new year with a joke!

[spanishninja]

his age doesn't say anything about the years of pro ball he played too. he simply has an advantage right now.

Age matters, regardless of his pedigree.

it's an indication of his talent and maturity for sure, but when it comes to comparing between players, 19 year old Doncic vs 19 year old Ayton or JJJ is as unfair as 19 year old Lebron vs 19 year old Jordan. it's ultimately an indication of the rise of Euroleague and the dilution of NCAA in general.

[guille_4]

his age doesn't say anything about the years of pro ball he played too. he simply has an advantage right now.

Age matters, regardless of his pedigree.

it's an indication of his talent and maturity for sure, but when it comes to comparing between players, 19 year old Doncic vs 19 year old Ayton or JJJ is as unfair as 19 year old Lebron vs 19 year old Jordan. it's ultimately an indication of the rise of Euroleague and the dilution of NCAA in general.

Deandre is a year older than Doncic and JJJ, who's the youngest of the 3.

[spanishninja]

Oh boy, I'm gonna write a lot here, since I've been having that feeling that a lot of people on here don't watch the Mavs. Btw, I'm in a good mood, very calm right now, so everything I'll write I mean it and don't exaggerate or understate anything. I've also been watching tons of games in December coz I've been jobless for over a month. Missed only 7 Mavs games this season.

Barnes. The dude doesn't enjoy it here. He goes to work, doesn't enjoy it one bit, you can just tell it by everything. He's extremely salty that some random white boy is miles better than he's ever been. And that was like that since day 1, so you can't blame Cuban or whatever crap. He shoots 3 well and is a bit above average on D, that's it. Doesn't rebound, has 0 interest in playing with his teammates. Plays his iso like it's 1 on 1 game, hits 3 at a good clip, goes home.

Wes is absolutely horrible. Again, good 3 point shooter this season, completely unplayable besides that. Can't catch a ball, can't pass at all. I legit thought he had like a hand injury or something or was on medication at the start of the season. He just generates so many turnovers it's ridiculous. Can't dribble at all. Most of his possessions are close to turnovers. Chucks in crunch time like there's no 2moro, makes teenage Kobe jealous. Doesn't just chuck when there are like 5 seconds left, just chucks randomly, wildly as soon as he gets a chance. Sometimes looks like he plays defense, but that's coz he tries, but always fails. Sometimes looks like he gets about to get a steal, but something is seriously wrong with his hands, I don't know what it is.

Daj. Shows more interest in the game than Barnes. Part of the team, Barnes isn't just there at all. Doesn't play a lick of defence. Like doesn't even show that he tries or anything. I mean freaking other teams' commentators just go silent or "wow! that was easy" when a player scores over Daj. Serious issues catching the ball. I mean he surprised me with his passing, but he can't catch very simple passes. Reminds me a lot of Olowokandi, fumbles the ball so much. Regressed a lot athletically from his Clippers days. Sometimes doesn't even bother to roll to the basket, just stands there doing nothing. He's here to pad his rebounding numbers hoping some idiot will give him more than an MLE. But doesn't even box out a lot of times, good bigs have a field day on our glass more often than not.

The team was awful last year, it would be even worse this season, Luka drags them by himself. Barea is pretty good this season, I like Kleber a lot, Harris is alright sometimes, that's about it, I really can't say more.

Rc now. Oh boy, I really don't understand why people like him so much. The dude is legit senile. If I were Cuban I'd legit have him checked into a mental institution. I mean, yeah, I get it, people for some reason give him a ton of credit for that 2011 run, but we won inspite of him. We had Casey and Stots, both dudes were very successful right since 2011. Mavs D and O went to crap right the next year. Casey was our defensive assistant, Stotts offensive. That zone by Casey was great, one of the reasons we won. Raptors D improved by like 15 spots in his first season with them. The only good thing rc did was insert Barea in that Heat series and I'm pretty sure it wasn't his idea, coz he's extremely stubborn, doesn't adjust at all, never. It's been exactly same crap since what, like 2008. Fell out multiple times with his Pgs. What's that "free flow offence" crap? Is it a euphimism for "I can't teach offence" ? One of the reasons we won is that Kidd force fed Dirk in crunch. Rc was trying to run some effing Barea\Chandler pnr or something I don't even know, get Stevenson for an open 3 like wtf is wrong with you, you got Dirk super hot, one of the best in clutch in all sports, and you running something completely idiotic jesus christ man. Wtf that Wes post stuff? That's just insane, it always ends in a turnover or very bad shot, like 49 out of 50 times. Why you do that? 3rd season in a row! Why? How do you guys think he's a good coach? Always picks his favourites, always old over the hill vets. I think all fans remember when he stormed out on the pitch swearing at Darren Colison for that 3. Then inserts Mike freaking James who chucks long 3's as soon as he can and rc stands there happy. Developed 0 young players in his 10 years, has 0 vision for young talent. I can write a lot more, but I think you get the idea.

And about the rookies. It's already completely evident that Doncic is well above the rest. Young, Ayton or whatever will be good players, just not the same tier as Luka. The kid is a franchise player already. His ceiling is extremely high. Ayton is nowhere close to Hakeem, will never be. You guys watch several Dallas games you will see what a burden Luka is dragging. And he was getting frustrated at them earlier, but anymore, he's jsut at peace with these toxic scrubs. He'll be gone as soon as his rookie deal expires if we don't get rid of rc, I promise you that. You have rc you have old scrubs playing awful ball.

this is what I'm talking about with people beng unable to apreciate more than one player. it is generally foolish to use the word "never" to talk about a rookie, but especially in reference to a guy who is putting up 17/11/60% after just half a season. on what basis do you say that Ayton and JJJ have lower ceilings than Doncic? on the contrary, what we have seen so far only indicates that Doncic has a higher floor of all the rookies this year, which everyone already knew. Ayton is nowhere near Hakeem right now, obviously, but that's irrelevant to the subject of ceiling. just two years ago we were calling Oladipo a bust and now look where he's at?

[spanishninja]

Age matters, regardless of his pedigree.

it's an indication of his talent and maturity for sure, but when it comes to comparing between players, 19 year old Doncic vs 19 year old Ayton or JJJ is as unfair as 19 year old Lebron vs 19 year old Jordan. it's ultimately an indication of the rise of Euroleague and the dilution of NCAA in general.

Deandre is a year older than Doncic and JJJ, who's the youngest of the 3.

i'm talking more about the difference in experience. Doncic obviously has had a lot more pro experience than either of the other two, hence being the most nba ready as a rookie.

[King Ken]

I wish everyone here a happy 2019!
Specially to the Hawks fans, who I belive will try to forget 2018 as soon as possible...

Spoiler:

Just kidding guys! It's ok to start a new year with a joke!

Hawks fan here. We are happy with our decision. We knew what Luka was and what Trae is and can be.

Both teams won

[Mr B]

Ayton and Doncic are both on pace to win ROY. If you think one is ahead of the other at this point in time ur just being a fanboy

They play differently and have different skill sets. You really cant compare the two.

Theres a lot of season left to go. It will be a fun race.

They could very easily be named co-ROY. It happened with Jason Kidd and Grant Hill.

[Tennis19]

Doncic is way ahead of anybody for the ROY award. Theres even discussion of him making the ASG. I havent heard anybody say Ayton should be in the ASG. I was totally dead wrong on Doncic. I can see him avg 21/6/7 in the 2nd half of the season. He just needs to improve on his FT% and TO.

[Young gun 6]

All those fans saying Doncic has Dallas in playoff contention etc.

Do you realise Dallas are 17-19, 12th in the West and very very unlikely to actually make playoffs from here? They are already slipping and 3.5 games behind 8th whilst being 2-8 in their last 10...

So yeah he might’ve had them in playoff contention in the first 20 games of the season but that looks done and dusted and it looks very unlikely they’ll even finish above 10th now.

[Saberestar]

Age matters, regardless of his pedigree.

it's an indication of his talent and maturity for sure, but when it comes to comparing between players, 19 year old Doncic vs 19 year old Ayton or JJJ is as unfair as 19 year old Lebron vs 19 year old Jordan. it's ultimately an indication of the rise of Euroleague and the dilution of NCAA in general.

Deandre is a year older than Doncic and JJJ, who's the youngest of the 3.

Not that it is really important, but Ayton is just 7 months older than Doncic.

I have watched every game from Ayton and some games from Doncic (around ten complete games I would say), and for now I think that Doncic is a bit better as a overall player.

But Ayton is playing better and better every week and he is closing the gap with Doncic.

It is gonna be a fun second part of the season.

[nikster]

All those fans saying Doncic has Dallas in playoff contention etc.

Do you realise Dallas are 17-19, 12th in the West and very very unlikely to actually make playoffs from here? They are already slipping and 3.5 games behind 8th whilst being 2-8 in their last 10...

So yeah he might’ve had them in playoff contention in the first 20 games of the season but that looks done and dusted and it looks very unlikely they’ll even finish above 10th now.

They’re only 3 game so out of the playoffs and are ahead of ADs Pelicans. They are still contending for a shot at playoffs

[Golden Knight]

All those fans saying Doncic has Dallas in playoff contention etc.

Do you realise Dallas are 17-19, 12th in the West and very very unlikely to actually make playoffs from here? They are already slipping and 3.5 games behind 8th whilst being 2-8 in their last 10...

So yeah he might’ve had them in playoff contention in the first 20 games of the season but that looks done and dusted and it looks very unlikely they’ll even finish above 10th now.

Because Dallas is still in playoff contention?

They're only 3 games behind no.8 with more than half the season still remaining. Dallas is slipping but definitely still in contention.
Even Phoenix is still mathematically in contention. They're 5-5 in their last 10. Significantly better than poor Dallas with their 2-8 record.

Unless the definition of contention have suddenly changed...

[Young gun 6]

All those fans saying Doncic has Dallas in playoff contention etc.

Do you realise Dallas are 17-19, 12th in the West and very very unlikely to actually make playoffs from here? They are already slipping and 3.5 games behind 8th whilst being 2-8 in their last 10...

So yeah he might’ve had them in playoff contention in the first 20 games of the season but that looks done and dusted and it looks very unlikely they’ll even finish above 10th now.

Because Dallas is still in playoff contention?

They're only 3 games behind no.8 with more than half the season still remaining. Dallas is slipping but definitely still in contention.
Even Phoenix is still mathematically in contention. They're 5-5 in their last 10. Significantly better than poor Dallas with their 2-8 record.

Unless the definition of contention have suddenly changed...

That’s right everyone is still in contention but the Luka stans are making it out like he is dragging them into the playoffs. They are 12th and probably less than 1% chance of even making it so it’s really a moot point to be bringing up constantly this early in the season and with where they are placed.

[spanishninja]

Doncic is way ahead of anybody for the ROY award. Theres even discussion of him making the ASG. I havent heard anybody say Ayton should be in the ASG. I was totally dead wrong on Doncic. I can see him avg 21/6/7 in the 2nd half of the season. He just needs to improve on his FT% and TO.

the ASG talk is all hype and highlights. Ayton is being ignored, plain and simple. Doncic is two steps ahead of everybody else at this point but the media would like to say he already finished the race.

[Mr B]

All those fans saying Doncic has Dallas in playoff contention etc.

Do you realise Dallas are 17-19, 12th in the West and very very unlikely to actually make playoffs from here? They are already slipping and 3.5 games behind 8th whilst being 2-8 in their last 10...

So yeah he might’ve had them in playoff contention in the first 20 games of the season but that looks done and dusted and it looks very unlikely they’ll even finish above 10th now.

It’s their road record that has killed them. At home they’re really good though. As a team they haven’t been able to get over the hump an win these close games at the end. They’re rebuild is not complete though. They will eventually be able to get these road wins. They won’t be in playoff contention until they can figure out how to win on the road.