Westbrooks shooting

[Thundershock88]

Hate to say it, but I'm convinced it's the knees.

[SecondTake]

Hate to say it, but I'm convinced it's the knees.

Doesnt really explain the the extremity of his free throw decline. It's probably part physical (knees), but I think it's definitely big part mental too now.

[SecondTake]

His scoring will go down. However his defense is leagues better than it has been in many seasons, and it's helping make up for much (not all) of his offensive struggles. His decision making has improved and obviously has room to improve further, which I think it will given his growth this year. So although his scoring will probably level out around 18-20 over the next 2-3 seasons I think his effectiveness can remain relatively similar due to much better defense and decision making. His defense is extremely good and all the numbers bare that out. That could not be said in the past on a consistent basis.

He needs to become more of a 15pt, 15 ast, 8-10 reb guy to remain effective. A lot less shots, especially jumpers, and more of a focus on the drive and kick aspect of his game. I'm not saying he can't still be a very good player, but he's no longer a superstar. He's no longer the guy that could carry the post-kd season team to the playoffs. PG is clearly the best player on the team now and before long we'll have to consider if Adams isn't the 2nd best player.

I don't believe Russ can/will change enough. It is nice to see him refocused on defense. He was drafted for his defense and athleticism. He was DPOY in college. I just don't think he can accept that he shouldn't be taking 18+ shots a night. The other problem is that there aren't a lot of options on the roster to take the shots that Russ has been taking and be as efficient. The lack of shooting on the roster AND the decline of Russ is going to make things ugly fast if Presti can't find some shooters. Abrines has to come back as the 38% 3pt shooter he has shown he is. Ferguson needs to continue shooting 37% from 3 like he did in December on an increased volume, 2 a game isn't enough. Jerami Grant's run appears to be over as he is shooting 29% from 3 over the last 12 games.

This team looks on paper like it was built with the unrealistic expectation that Russ had 2-3 more years before he dropped off. That was a massive failure by Presti as there was very little chance Russ didn't start to drop off enough this year that everyone would see it. Although, I didn't expect him to drop off this much until next year.

I agree with just about everything you have said. Russ could be averaging 15 ASTs a night and we would be better off for it. Grant’s shooting #s are down because the defense is sagging so hard on Westbrook, they would rather guard Grant closer than they would Westbrook which speaks to Westbrook’s struggles. In order for this team to reach it’s peak, Westbrook MUST learn to take less shots and be more selective with his shots but I’m not sure he has the patience to play this way. Hard to teach an old dog new tricks.

This is the main reason why I think Presti is feeling a lot of pressure to make a significant trade at the deadline. We need to put another star in between Russ and George that Russ respects. I think if Presti can do that, Westbrook would actually be more committed to changing.

I think the whole roster is in question right now, though. I wouldn’t be surprised if we traded Grant at this point. I feel extremely confident that Adams is getting traded soon. At the very least, this offseason. We need to put a 2-guard between Russ and George that can take away a chunk of Russ’ shooting. This 2-guard also needs to be able to run the second unit. I think we are going to see a very different Thunder team next season. Presti is going to put more emphasis on offense than ever before, in my opinion.

I find it strange that Russ and George both followed Beal. It makes you think...

I like to think Presti sits down with Russ and George and shows them a list of practical trade targets and they collaboratively decide who they would be most interested in.


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You're basically trading away defense for offense. I dont see the point of such a lateral move. Grant and Adams would not be guys I'm trading, especially Adams (Grant maybe, but not for anything less than a 17 point a night scorer with 38%+ from three)

Grant is making a case for most improved player this year, is a threat from outside, is now making fadeaway midrange shots, is an excellent defender and good finisher.

Adams is a beast on the boards, gives them inside finishing and is a great defender.

They're both also yet to reach their prime and have been getting better every year.

They're your 3rd and 4th best players on a starting unit that is one of the best in the entire NBA, on the strength of their defense. At best a good trade gives you better offense, worse defense and an equal to the now already dominant net differential of the starting 5. There's no win there - you really can't improve the starting unit a whole lot when they're as good as any unit in the NBA.

The issue is the bench. You don't fix that by trading way your strength (starting unit) and by giving WB an extra shooter at the expense of defenders around him. You need to create a package of Nader/Patterson/Abrines and see if you can find a a 3 and D guy that can create something off the dribble. If you had a guy like that beside Shroder, you would effectively transform the second unit in to a poor mans first man unit, with Shroder+2nd creator/outside shooter being like WB/PG combo.

I honestly don't understand your obsession with dumping Adams who is one of the best (though underrated) big men in the NBA and only getting better. Grant is quietly turning in to a beast. You keep wanting to trade away our assets to replace them with other...assets? We need to trade up and that needs to happen through the bench.

[Kizz Fastfists]

At this point does anyone actually expect things to change? We're almost half way through the season and it's not like there's an upward trend.

At this point I'll actually be surprised if they hold on to a playoff spot. Things are really bad and it has been masked a lot by the schedule. They are 9-1 against the bottom 5 teams and only have 2 more games against them. They are something like 5-8 against teams over .500 and that consists of over half their schedule the rest of the way. They barely beat the baby Lakers with Kuzma getting hurt.

[1bigfan13]

It's definitely a mental issue. Lots of self-doubt going on with him as well.

You an see literally see the hesitancy in him sometimes when he goes up for a shot. He has a case of the yips, which explains all of the airballs.

[1bigfan13]

I’m more irritated about the 1-7 from three than the 3-20. Russ really believes he’s a good shooter.

Bingo! 100% agree!!!

I've been pointing out this same thing about his shooting struggles. His shot selection flat out sucks. As you mentioned he takes way too many 3 pointers and other bad shots.

If he would just stick to his strengths (drives to the basket and mid-range jumpers) the shooting slump wouldn't be so pronounced. But he's too stubborn or stupid to play within his skill set.

That's why I've always given guys like Derozan and Ben Simmons a ton of credit. They know their limitations as shooters and have the self-restraint to avoid taking shots that are low percentage for them. Basically they're the anti-Westbrook.

[SecondTake]

At this point does anyone actually expect things to change? We're almost half way through the season and it's not like there's an upward trend.

At this point I'll actually be surprised if they hold on to a playoff spot. Things are really bad and it has been masked a lot by the schedule. They are 9-1 against the bottom 5 teams and only have 2 more games against them. They are something like 5-8 against teams over .500 and that consists of over half their schedule the rest of the way. They barely beat the baby Lakers with Kuzma getting hurt.

I think they'll be a top 3 seed and I could see them going #1. Once Roberson comes back this defense could go from great to all time great - we're already at a supreme defense differential and with Roberson that could easily rise to 08 Celtic levels. I expect Westbrook to get better than he currently is (I mean it would be hard to get any worse than December) and I trust Westbrooks work ethic and drive to bounce back. To me those two factors alone keep us in the top 3 out West.

Patterson is showing some small signs of life and I think Schroder is going through rough stretch now that I think will improve if Abrines starts hitting his career avg's in 3's and Nader keeps playing at even 80% of what he's playing at. I just believe that with Schroder+Noel there is enough bench talent that they should be doing a much better job than they did last year, and we saw that in November. Nader improves that further. I think this is going to be a WCF team, and with a move at the deadline I would give it a punchers chance to go all the way.

[slick_watts]

the idea of sam presti sitting down with westbrook and george and collaborating on trade ideas is hilarious.

[Pillendreher]

At this point does anyone actually expect things to change? We're almost half way through the season and it's not like there's an upward trend.

At this point I'll actually be surprised if they hold on to a playoff spot. Things are really bad and it has been masked a lot by the schedule. They are 9-1 against the bottom 5 teams and only have 2 more games against them. They are something like 5-8 against teams over .500 and that consists of over half their schedule the rest of the way. They barely beat the baby Lakers with Kuzma getting hurt.

They are literally the 2nd best team by SRS right now. Can you at least come up with something original and not always this gloom and doom bull?

[getrichordie]

At this point does anyone actually expect things to change? We're almost half way through the season and it's not like there's an upward trend.

At this point I'll actually be surprised if they hold on to a playoff spot. Things are really bad and it has been masked a lot by the schedule. They are 9-1 against the bottom 5 teams and only have 2 more games against them. They are something like 5-8 against teams over .500 and that consists of over half their schedule the rest of the way. They barely beat the baby Lakers with Kuzma getting hurt.

They are literally the 2nd best team by SRS right now. Can you at least come up with something original and not always this gloom and doom bull?

Can you explain to me what SRS means and what it means that they are the 2nd best team by SRS?

[Kizz Fastfists]

Can you explain to me what SRS means and what it means that they are the 2nd best team by SRS?

It is basically ranks teams based on their pythagorean record. Blowing out the Suns is more impressive than a 2 point win over GS. What it means is that OKC has blown out a bunch of bad teams. Anytime someone says what OKC ranks in SRS they are basically just citing point differential, which OKC is 2nd in. SRS stands for simple rating system because it only looks at final scores. It is very friendly to OKC because they have blown out several weak teams, i.e. Detroit, Phoenix, Chicago and NYK. The system loves teams that blow out bad teams.

I tend to prefer systems that more heavily favor SOS. Yes, SRS takes the SOS into account, but at such a small weight it is just enough that they can claim it. To simplify it, if OKC were to beat Phoenix by 20 and lose to both Denver and GS by 3 while Denver beat Phoenix, GS and OKC by 3 and GS beat Phoenix by 15, OKC by 3 and lost by 3 to Denver then SRS would rank it 1) OKC 2) GS 3) Denver 4) Phoenix. So the undefeated team would be 3rd behind two teams it beat and the 1-2 team would be at the top of the rankings.

[slick_watts]

Can you explain to me what SRS means and what it means that they are the 2nd best team by SRS?

It is basically ranks teams based on their pythagorean record. Blowing out the Suns is more impressive than a 2 point win over GS. What it means is that OKC has blown out a bunch of bad teams. Anytime someone says what OKC ranks in SRS they are basically just citing point differential, which OKC is 2nd in. SRS stands for simple rating system because it only looks at final scores. It is very friendly to OKC because they have blown out several weak teams, i.e. Detroit, Phoenix, Chicago and NYK. The system loves teams that blow out bad teams.

I tend to prefer systems that more heavily favor SOS. Yes, SRS takes the SOS into account, but at such a small weight it is just enough that they can claim it. To simplify it, if OKC were to beat Phoenix by 20 and lose to both Denver and GS by 3 while Denver beat Phoenix, GS and OKC by 3 and GS beat Phoenix by 15, OKC by 3 and lost by 3 to Denver then SRS would rank it 1) OKC 2) GS 3) Denver 4) Phoenix. So the undefeated team would be 3rd behind two teams it beat and the 1-2 team would be at the top of the rankings.

thunder lose well over a point of MOV on the SRS adjustment right now which is pretty significant.

[getrichordie]

Can you explain to me what SRS means and what it means that they are the 2nd best team by SRS?

It is basically ranks teams based on their pythagorean record. Blowing out the Suns is more impressive than a 2 point win over GS. What it means is that OKC has blown out a bunch of bad teams. Anytime someone says what OKC ranks in SRS they are basically just citing point differential, which OKC is 2nd in. SRS stands for simple rating system because it only looks at final scores. It is very friendly to OKC because they have blown out several weak teams, i.e. Detroit, Phoenix, Chicago and NYK. The system loves teams that blow out bad teams.

I tend to prefer systems that more heavily favor SOS. Yes, SRS takes the SOS into account, but at such a small weight it is just enough that they can claim it. To simplify it, if OKC were to beat Phoenix by 20 and lose to both Denver and GS by 3 while Denver beat Phoenix, GS and OKC by 3 and GS beat Phoenix by 15, OKC by 3 and lost by 3 to Denver then SRS would rank it 1) OKC 2) GS 3) Denver 4) Phoenix. So the undefeated team would be 3rd behind two teams it beat and the 1-2 team would be at the top of the rankings.

thunder lose well over a point of MOV on the SRS adjustment right now which is pretty significant.

where can I look at these numbers? so basically what you guys are saying is that Pill is putting too much emphasis on the SRS #s?


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[Pillendreher]

It is basically ranks teams based on their pythagorean record. Blowing out the Suns is more impressive than a 2 point win over GS. What it means is that OKC has blown out a bunch of bad teams. Anytime someone says what OKC ranks in SRS they are basically just citing point differential, which OKC is 2nd in. SRS stands for simple rating system because it only looks at final scores. It is very friendly to OKC because they have blown out several weak teams, i.e. Detroit, Phoenix, Chicago and NYK. The system loves teams that blow out bad teams.

I tend to prefer systems that more heavily favor SOS. Yes, SRS takes the SOS into account, but at such a small weight it is just enough that they can claim it. To simplify it, if OKC were to beat Phoenix by 20 and lose to both Denver and GS by 3 while Denver beat Phoenix, GS and OKC by 3 and GS beat Phoenix by 15, OKC by 3 and lost by 3 to Denver then SRS would rank it 1) OKC 2) GS 3) Denver 4) Phoenix. So the undefeated team would be 3rd behind two teams it beat and the 1-2 team would be at the top of the rankings.

Great teams are supposed to beat bad teams. These squads don't lose by 25 nightly, so when teams blow them out, it's an accomplishment. And furthermore, the Thunder are among the top against the better teams in the league:



That's every team with a positive NetRtG per basketball-reference.com against each other. The starters have been great against these squads (108.3 ORtG | 100.6 DRtG | +7.7 NetRtG in 1159 possessions for George-Grant-Adams to account for injuries to Westbrook and Ferguson), but the bench not so much (95.9 ORtG | 107.1 DRtG | -11.2 NetRtG in 525 possessions for Noel ON). Just as a quick comparison a look at the other top teams:

1.Toronto with Lowry-Leonard-Siakam: 122.3 ORtG | 111.1 DRtG | +11.2 NetRtG in 566 possessions
2.Boston with Irving-Taytum-Horford: 114.3 ORtG | 106.3 DRtG | +8.1 NetRtG in 699 possessions
3.OKC with George-Grant-Adams (to account for injuries to Westbrook and Ferguson): 108.3 ORtG | 100.6 DRtG | +7.7 NetRtG in 1159 possessions
4.Mikwaukee with Middleton-Giannis-Lopez: 113.3 ORtG | 109.6 DRtG | +3.7 NetRtG in 644 possessions
5.Denver with Murray-Jokic (to account for injuries to Millsap and Harris): 109.2 ORtG | 111.8 DRtG | -2.6 NetRtG in 1045 possessions
6.Indiana with Turner-Young (to account for the injury to Oladipo): 105.2 ORtG | 108.7 DRtG | -3.5 NetRtG in 593 possessions
7.Warriors with Thompson-Durant (to account for injuries to Green and Curry): 108.2 ORtG | 115.0 DRtG | -6.8 NetRtG in 1284 possessions

The schedule argument is a lazy one if you want to act like the Thunder have been frauds this season. You have to do better than that. Especially if you want bring up the schedule when 90 % of all the trash teams are in the East.

[anthony00]

I’m more irritated about the 1-7 from three than the 3-20. Russ really believes he’s a good shooter.

Bingo! 100% agree!!!

I've been pointing out this same thing about his shooting struggles. His shot selection flat out sucks. As you mentioned he takes way too many 3 pointers and other bad shots.

If he would just stick to his strengths (drives to the basket and mid-range jumpers) the shooting slump wouldn't be so pronounced. But he's too stubborn or stupid to play within his skill set.

That's why I've always given guys like Derozan and Ben Simmons a ton of credit. They know their limitations as shooters and have the self-restraint to avoid taking shots that are low percentage for them. Basically they're the anti-Westbrook.

Although i kinda agree you can't get better as a shooter if you don't shoot, Derozan still shoots the midrange shot (he is good at it) but Ben Simmons doesn't shoot at all .

[CROklahoma]

Westbrook has always made his living around mid range, we shouldn't change that.
His immense athleticism and playmaking allows him to recover from bad spots if the shot from mid is not there, you just cannot expect him to start being Curry and change his offensive approach completely by doing the whole work starting behind the 3pt line.
Curry, Lillard are those whose gamed starts well behind the line.
Westbrooks game always was 2-3 feet inside.
That is my take on his struggles, and trying to adjust that.
Maybe some other offseason when his health allows him to take the time to do the adjustments, this is just not this season.

[Pillendreher]

Russ has been alternating trash and good shooting for the last ~3 weeks:

[Jstock12]

At this point does anyone actually expect things to change? We're almost half way through the season and it's not like there's an upward trend.

At this point I'll actually be surprised if they hold on to a playoff spot. Things are really bad and it has been masked a lot by the schedule. They are 9-1 against the bottom 5 teams and only have 2 more games against them. They are something like 5-8 against teams over .500 and that consists of over half their schedule the rest of the way. They barely beat the baby Lakers with Kuzma getting hurt.

OKC is 7-8 (.466) vs .500 or above teams.

TOP-10 vs .500 or above:

1. Rockets .684
2. Nuggets .666
3. Bucks .647
4. Raptors .579
5. Spurs .565
6. Blazers .522
7. Clippers .478
8. Lakers .476
9. Thunder .466
10. Pacers .438

... Warriors are only .389, Sixers are .384 ...

[getrichordie]

Russ has been alternating trash and good shooting for the last ~3 weeks:

Of course.. this is the most Westbrook thing to do...


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[sleestak33]

Westbrook has had about the highest usage rate of any player in NBA history the last few years since KD left but now he's having to adjust to playing off the ball more which he's really not very good at. Also he is distributing it much more to PG, Adams and Grant more which clearly has helped their games and the team improve but it's hurting his shot because he's so used to having the ball so much. It's much easier to get into a flow offensively when you have the ball in your hands all the time. He needs to figure it out by the time playoffs start. They need him to be efficient to have any chance of challenging the Warriors and Rockets in a playoff series.