Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XX: Year of the Vuc

[pepe1991]

I think trading for Beal makes us a lot more enticing to land a pg (Russell? or similar tier) this summer in free agency. No one is getting excited playing with anyone on the roster now.

I mean, if Vučević leaves what's selling point to any FA ?
" oh come here, you can jack 23 shots a game, will be hated by media and fans and you will have nobody to pass ball to " ?

[MoMM]

I think trading for Beal makes us a lot more enticing to land a pg (Russell? or similar tier) this summer in free agency. No one is getting excited playing with anyone on the roster now.

I mean, if Vučević leaves what's selling point to any FA ?
" oh come here, you can jack 23 shots a game, will be hated by media and fans and you will have nobody to pass ball to " ?

State taxes...

[Skybox]

I think trading for Beal makes us a lot more enticing to land a pg (Russell? or similar tier) this summer in free agency. No one is getting excited playing with anyone on the roster now.

I mean, if Vučević leaves what's selling point to any FA ?
" oh come here, you can jack 23 shots a game, will be hated by media and fans and you will have nobody to pass ball to " ?

State taxes...

You joke but it wasn't that long ago that ORL looked like a great FA destination, even with a depleted "Heart and Hustle" team. Weather, taxes, facilities, Ownership group, Front Office, Coach, young developing supporting cast of players in need of star power...where are the gaping holes in our presentation today?

I understand it's a different era now, but I'm not sure exactly why. I guess it's simply "Stars go where the Stars already are"...LBJ didn't-which is ironic since he single-handedly turned the whole player/team power dynamic upside down.

[j-ragg]

I mean, if Vučević leaves what's selling point to any FA ?
" oh come here, you can jack 23 shots a game, will be hated by media and fans and you will have nobody to pass ball to " ?

State taxes...

You joke but it wasn't that long ago that ORL looked like a great FA destination, even with a depleted "Heart and Hustle" team. Weather, taxes, facilities, Ownership group, Front Office, Coach, young developing supporting cast of players in need of star power...where are the gaping holes in our presentation today?

I understand it's a different era now, but I'm not sure exactly why. I guess it's simply "Stars go where the Stars already are"...LBJ didn't-which is ironic since he single-handedly turned the whole player/team power dynamic upside down.

Sorta off topic but I was listening to Channing Frye talk about Orlando on a pod. Not verbatim but he said something like "when I was growing up watching basketball and playing in hs/college I thought Orlando was like the place to be for basketball. Now it seems like a place full of tourists" it was always a tourist place but I wonder if the stigma around the NBA has changed.

[drsd]

State taxes...

New York has State Tax Rate at 8.82%, which for a 30M deal is $2,646,000 in taxes per year.
. (Knicks and Nets max players)
California has State Tax Rate at 14.63%, which for a 30M deal is $4,389,000 in taxes per year.
. (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers max players)
Illinois has State Tax Rate at 4.95%, which for a 30M deal is $1,485,000 in taxes per year.
. (Bulls max players)
Massachusetts has State Tax Rate at 5.1%, which for a 30M deal is $1,530,000 in taxes per year.
. (Celts max players)

As an aside, if Walker leaves North Carolina and its 5.75% state tax to come to Florida on an averaged 35M contract, over five year, he saves $10,062,500 in taxes. That's an 8-figure savings.



..

[fendilim]

State taxes...

New York has State Tax Rate at 8.82%, which for a 30M deal is $2,646,000 in taxes per year.
. (Knicks and Nets max players)
California has State Tax Rate at 14.63%, which for a 30M deal is $4,389,000 in taxes per year.
. (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers max players)
Illinois has State Tax Rate at 4.95%, which for a 30M deal is $1,485,000 in taxes per year.
. (Bulls max players)
Massachusetts has State Tax Rate at 5.1%, which for a 30M deal is $1,530,000 in taxes per year.
. (Celts max players)

As an aside, if Walker leaves North Carolina and its 5.75% state tax to come to Florida on an averaged 35M contract, over five year, he saves $10,062,500 in taxes. That's an 8-figure savings.



..

I think it was kennedy or was that keith Smith who mentioned that the state tax don't really play a big part for free agents..

With the amount of salaries players make, state tax don't really matter that much, IMO.

To be honest, I think we are overstating the importance of the state tax on free agency decisions.

Look at the MAX players we have acquired..

TMac and Hill, we had a chance to restart our whole team, and we were in a good position to land 2 superstars, that was very easy given the clean slate.

Rashard Lewis, we already had a really good core and offered him a supermax, which many thought was an overpay. But it ended up well for us, since we went to the finals.

Whats going to attract Free Agents is not state taxes, its having a good organization and a good fit for these guys. Winning games would really help all of that.

Thats why we have overpaid for guys like Jeff Green and DJ Augustin during this rebuild, despite the lower state tax. Because no free agents would really want to go to a losing team because it also affects their value overall.

[Bergmaniac]

State taxes...

New York has State Tax Rate at 8.82%, which for a 30M deal is $2,646,000 in taxes per year.
. (Knicks and Nets max players)
California has State Tax Rate at 14.63%, which for a 30M deal is $4,389,000 in taxes per year.
. (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers max players)
Illinois has State Tax Rate at 4.95%, which for a 30M deal is $1,485,000 in taxes per year.
. (Bulls max players)
Massachusetts has State Tax Rate at 5.1%, which for a 30M deal is $1,530,000 in taxes per year.
. (Celts max players)

As an aside, if Walker leaves North Carolina and its 5.75% state tax to come to Florida on an averaged 35M contract, over five year, he saves $10,062,500 in taxes. That's an 8-figure savings.
..

He'd save less than that due to the way the so-called Jock Tax works - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jock_tax.

[darthmerrick]

I think trading for Beal makes us a lot more enticing to land a pg (Russell? or similar tier) this summer in free agency. No one is getting excited playing with anyone on the roster now.

Exactly Beal is available, you have to start somewhere. Free Agents will sure as hell want to sign to play with the potential of Beal, Gordon, Bamba then Fournier and Vucevic. Go get Beal whose price is a starter (Fournier), a young talent (Issac), and 2 picks. Very doable and I think the only team that can beat that offer is Phoenix.

[Skybox]

Here's what I'd like to see this season...
*My first choice would be a blockbuster for a Beal, McCollum - level player. I'd be willing to send one of BIG, Vuc, OKC pick, expirings, frp for the right organization-changing building block. Nobody is off the table, IMO. Vuc and AG have a nice chemistry - if we could add a legit 22ppg type. Who's the next Harden, about to be unleashed in a bigger role?..This seems unlikely so, more realistically...

1.sign some new backup PG on a 10-day minimum deal (Cam Payne?), someone who's been a major disappointment or underutilized, expect nothing but take an inexpensive shot at a great story. Send Grant and Briscoe, or both, home. Take some inexpensive, out of the box "Moneyball" type shots at an unlikely but possible salvage feel good project or two. Even if they just solidify bench.Let Troy play.
2. Trade some combination of Vuc, Ross, Simms, 2020 pick, OKC pick for a young PG/Scoring guard with upside like DSJ, DLO, Rozier,Dinwiddie, Fultz. Understand that it will hurt us short term to play Bamba. Not for a draft pick, but for a young player.
3. Watch our draft pick rise while the team begins to learn each other and Clifford adjusts to loss of Vuc. Not tanking, just changing the timetable. I hope DSJ comes in and destroys our draft pick in a surprising surge with BIG but either way is fine.

Mostly, we're at a turning point...we need a big move this season or this summer, IMO. In the meantime, they should be scouring the world, the G league, the playgrounds for an overlooked guy waiting for a shot. Really no risk right now. We've got some assets, some good young talent, some moderate success to build on...and 3 or 4 guys that shouldn't be in the NBA holding down our bench. Where's Frazier? Where's Justin Jackson? There must be some one who deserves a look.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

2 Beal Trades I've looked at.. Not sure 2nd one would fly as they take on more money and only get 2020 pick but AG Fournier definitely 2 solid pieces.

Isaac, Fournier 2nd round pick 31st and OKC 2020

or

AG Fournier OKC 2020 for Beal Morris.


I'd move either AG or Isaac if it meant getting Beal but not both.

[Skybox]

Guys I can't get out of my head as "explode in a new setting with our young guys up front" role/opportunity...

1. Beal
2. McCollum
3. Zach Lavine
4. Dennis Smith
5. Deangelo Russell
6. Jaylen Brown
7. Malcolm Brogdon
8. Rozier
9. Fultz

Obviously, a huge variation in price tags and availability on this list....to go along with the likelihood of success. All of them, for one reason or another, have some degree of availability. I'd add Lonzo Ball and/Brandon Ingram in there, as the Lakers have a pretty unique situation, with LBJ running the offense and demanding win-now moves. The Lakers can feel likely enough to score big in free agency that they might "lose" a value trade to free more cap space. They are not thinking as far down the road as others.

[rcklsscognition]

Basically there is some incentive but not a lot for taxes. Money is money though and it is important to some players, even if it seems like it wouldn't matter much to us if we were earning that much money. But they would get taxes by the states they play in on the road, outside of Miami games, they'd have 40 games outside Florida subject to possible taxation.

[pepe1991]

State taxes...

New York has State Tax Rate at 8.82%, which for a 30M deal is $2,646,000 in taxes per year.
. (Knicks and Nets max players)
California has State Tax Rate at 14.63%, which for a 30M deal is $4,389,000 in taxes per year.
. (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers max players)
Illinois has State Tax Rate at 4.95%, which for a 30M deal is $1,485,000 in taxes per year.
. (Bulls max players)
Massachusetts has State Tax Rate at 5.1%, which for a 30M deal is $1,530,000 in taxes per year.
. (Celts max players)

As an aside, if Walker leaves North Carolina and its 5.75% state tax to come to Florida on an averaged 35M contract, over five year, he saves $10,062,500 in taxes. That's an 8-figure savings.
..

He'd save less than that due to the way the so-called Jock Tax works - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jock_tax.

Pretty sure almost all star players have their accountants who use offshore companies to transfer money to save them for bigger luxury tax . That's why almost every year you have lot of athletes getting busted for that. That's why half of stars from Europe are "living" in Monaco

Also biggest stars get sooo much more from off court stuff.
Harden has $200M contract with Adidas.
Lebron allegedly makes $52M off court.

No. 1 overall pick in the draft may get paid $20 per autographed card and have an agreement to sign 7,500 cards (so the player would earn $150,000 for a few hours of signing their name).

[BadMofoPimp]

I think trading for Beal makes us a lot more enticing to land a pg (Russell? or similar tier) this summer in free agency. No one is getting excited playing with anyone on the roster now.

I mean, if Vučević leaves what's selling point to any FA ?
" oh come here, you can jack 23 shots a game, will be hated by media and fans and you will have nobody to pass ball to " ?

State taxes...

I don't think the Magic have ever landed a star free agent on that notion.

[MagicFan101]

State taxes...

New York has State Tax Rate at 8.82%, which for a 30M deal is $2,646,000 in taxes per year.
. (Knicks and Nets max players)
California has State Tax Rate at 14.63%, which for a 30M deal is $4,389,000 in taxes per year.
. (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers max players)
Illinois has State Tax Rate at 4.95%, which for a 30M deal is $1,485,000 in taxes per year.
. (Bulls max players)
Massachusetts has State Tax Rate at 5.1%, which for a 30M deal is $1,530,000 in taxes per year.
. (Celts max players)

As an aside, if Walker leaves North Carolina and its 5.75% state tax to come to Florida on an averaged 35M contract, over five year, he saves $10,062,500 in taxes. That's an 8-figure savings.



..

For a mid-level player that can be important.

For a player with stardom in their dreams (realistic or not) they can easily be swayed to forgo tax losses for the sake of endorsement deals stemming from big market fandom.

[MagicFan4Lyfe]

We need new management.

I think WeHam are in over their heads.
Keep them Hennigan leftovers and sprinkle a few changes here and there. We are rolling out the same team in 2019-20 season! Book it!

[BadHombre]

New York has State Tax Rate at 8.82%, which for a 30M deal is $2,646,000 in taxes per year.
. (Knicks and Nets max players)
California has State Tax Rate at 14.63%, which for a 30M deal is $4,389,000 in taxes per year.
. (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers max players)
Illinois has State Tax Rate at 4.95%, which for a 30M deal is $1,485,000 in taxes per year.
. (Bulls max players)
Massachusetts has State Tax Rate at 5.1%, which for a 30M deal is $1,530,000 in taxes per year.
. (Celts max players)

As an aside, if Walker leaves North Carolina and its 5.75% state tax to come to Florida on an averaged 35M contract, over five year, he saves $10,062,500 in taxes. That's an 8-figure savings.
..

He'd save less than that due to the way the so-called Jock Tax works - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jock_tax.

Pretty sure almost all star players have their accountants who use offshore companies to transfer money to save them for bigger luxury tax . That's why almost every year you have lot of athletes getting busted for that. That's why half of stars from Europe are "living" in Monaco

Also biggest stars get sooo much more from off court stuff.
Harden has $200M contract with Adidas.
Lebron allegedly makes $52M off court.

No. 1 overall pick in the draft may get paid $20 per autographed card and have an agreement to sign 7,500 cards (so the player would earn $150,000 for a few hours of signing their name).

You’d think so, and I’d imagine most are getting more savvy with how they handle their money (a good accountant could easily write off the difference of state taxes in ‘expenses’). But then there’s too many stories about players going broke once their careers are over, too.

If I were a team owner/president/GM, I’d employ some of the best financial advisors in the country to be on call financial advisors for all my players. That way you can sell FAs on how you can make them a winner on the court, and off. Could also help when trying to negotiate better deals if you’ve got a trusted money manager saying “if you take a pay-cut of $5-10M on this contract so we have save space for another player, I’ll get you double that in investments”.

Anyone know if any teams actually do this already?

[BadHombre]

Guys I can't get out of my head as "explode in a new setting with our young guys up front" role/opportunity...

1. Beal
2. McCollum
3. Zach Lavine
4. Dennis Smith
5. Deangelo Russell
6. Jaylen Brown
7. Malcolm Brogdon
8. Rozier
9. Fultz

Obviously, a huge variation in price tags and availability on this list....to go along with the likelihood of success. All of them, for one reason or another, have some degree of availability. I'd add Lonzo Ball and/Brandon Ingram in there, as the Lakers have a pretty unique situation, with LBJ running the offense and demanding win-now moves. The Lakers can feel likely enough to score big in free agency that they might "lose" a value trade to free more cap space. They are not thinking as far down the road as others.

Solid list. I’d put Brown up in the top 3, personally. He’s going to get a big contract thrown at him this summer, though.

And Fultz is the ideal kind of risk to take if it’s a low enough cost. He has his issues, but nothing I don’t think a fresh start, and a consistent and more prominent role couldn’t help him shake.

[woosah]

Ingram is fools gold.

[Skybox]

Ingram is fools gold.

I tend to agree-somebody suggested he would "add toughness" to our team ...don't care to fight about it with half of the board, but Ball would be my pick from LAL if LBJ decided he needed more complementary help.