nate33 wrote:payitforward wrote:1. Ernie will do anything he needs to do, pay any amount he has to pay, to keep at least one of Portis & Parker. Otherwise, he'll have made himself look like a bozo (pick a guy #3 in the draft, max him, then give him away for no return). Ernie never does anything that reveals his mistakes. No matter how much he gives 1 or both those guys, however bad the overpay(s) he will still have kicked the can down the road, which is all that matters to him.
Ernie won't do
anything. He won't go $10M over the luxtax, for example. And that's what it would probably cost to retain all three of Ariza, Portis and Parker, assuming Sato is also kept.
payitforward wrote:2. Yes, Bobby Portis is certainly worth more than $7-9m. That's pitched too low in the current NBA. But, $16m -- what he wants -- is too high, I agree. But the fact that he turned down 4 yrs/$50m doesn't mean Ernie can't sign him for @$12m a year. It'll just be for 2 years instead of 4. That's a good bet for Bobby & his agent. Salaries will continue to rise.
I agree that Portis will probably cost too much. I think he is the guy that is likely to get priced out of the Wizards salary range.
payitforward wrote:3. If someone gives Jabari Parker a 3 year contract for $15-18m a year -- a guy who has PROVEN he's a bust over almost 5 years in the league -- they are nuts. I don't think anybody is quite that nuts.
It would be nuts to give him that, right now, today. But if he plays for the next 30 games as well as he played the last 2, then the calculation starts to change. The Parker that I have seen for the last 2 games is a difference maker - a guy worth $15M. The only question is whether or not that guy I've seen for the past 2 games is likely to remain that guy for the next 2-4 seasons. Making that gamble right now would be wildly reckless. But making it after 30 games of very good play is merely a gamble. It could work out, or maybe it doesn't. But at least there's a plausible chance of it working out. There's no reason to discuss it further right now. Let's wait 30 games and see how things look.
payitforward wrote:4. But, if Bobby goes elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernie offer Parker a $15m 1-year contract -- good faith, make good. But, keep in mind: that's what his $20m contract with the Bulls was! Moreover, they played him 27 minutes a game for the first 39 games of the season. He was so bad that they proceeded to make him inactive.
I would be very surprised to see a fat, 1-year offer for Portis. We just don't have the luxtax room to be offering big money up front. If anything, I think EG will go the other way and try to get Portis a little cheaper by signing him to a very long-term deal.
payitforward wrote:That's not the way I'd go. If I offered him anything at all it would be a 3-year contract with a cheap first year & team options for years 2 & 3, & quite big raises for each of those years. Make him prove something.
You can't have multiple team options in the same contract (except on a rookie 1st round pick contract).
Ahhh -- thanks for the info.
Re: 1 -- I agree he won't be able to keep all 3 of them. Plus, one way to "keep" Portis would be simply to give him his qualifying offer & then let yourself be priced out, so that you can claim there was nothing you could do about it. I hadn't thought of that possibility. Still, I will be surprised if he doesn't prioritize Portis over Ariza. We'll see....
Re 2 -- ... a 2-year contract might work. Ernie hides his error by keeping Portis.
Re 3 -- You're an old hand, nate. Surely you aren't judging Jabari on 2 games!
But, sure, lets just pay attention. For that matter, as with any player, I'd be really pleased to see this kid get it together.
Re 4 -- I was talking about Parker not Portis (...it's funny that it's Porter, Parker, Portis I have to say!)
