Your reaction if Lakers move up in the draft lottery? (Poll)

[LukaV]

Hello.

Let's suppose the Lakers finish with the 12th worst record (as they stand now). Their odds would be 1.3% for the #1 pick, 1.4# for the #2 pick, 1.6 for the #3 pick and 1.8 for the #4 pick. Full odds at http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds . EDIT: Correction, the odds would be 1.5, 1.7, 1.9 and 2.1.

How would you react if the Lakers won the #1 pick? How if they got one of the #2, #3 or #4 picks? Would it cause you to (further?) question the integrity of the NBA, to consider that the NBA is in some way rigged?

We know that the lottery process itself is audited by Ernst & Young, a very famous & prestigious company, but not without its black marks, including some heavy fines and also some very loud rumours of helping cover up big transgressions (for example the Lehman Brothers collapse).

We have also had some very interesting results (Ewing to Knicks, Rose to Chicago, Lebron to Cleveland, AD to the Pelicans, Cleveland getting 3 #1 picks after Lebron leaving and rumours of him eventually returning etc.) that some see as arguments in favour of the theory that the lottery is, at least on occasion, rigged.

So, how would you react if the Lakers jumped ahead in the lottery just as they're looking at a summer where they hope they'll have enough enticing "trade assets" to get AD and/or to lure the best free agents to LA regardless of whether they trade for AD, with the looming danger that the NBA will suffer greatly marketing-wise etc. if another year of Lebron's last highly productive years gets wasted?

If they get #1/Zion, he might be enough for Lakers to not need to get AD + another star to contend in 2019-2020, instead just getting one big FA and retaining their young core alongside Zion, Lebron and the FA star. If they get a 2-4 pick, that greatly improves their chances of trading for AD/otherwise improving.

Thanks for your replies!

[IgorK]

Where's the "OP needs to take off his tinfoil hat" option?

[Optms]

If the NBA lottery was rigged, LA would have gotten the first pick in one of the 4 years they were in the bottom 7. HINT: They didn't.

Are people seriously just waiting for the year the Lakers do eventually move up just to scream rigged? That's pretty lame.

[ChartFiction]

I'm sure if the Lakers don't win this year, they'll win some year and you'll be able to claim rigged.

[NyKnicks1714]

Somebody please tell me how the NBA can rig the draft, purely in terms of logistics.

[HoopsterJones]

IMO, the lottery is much much more difficult to rig now then just pulling envelopes out of a bowl (Hello Patrick Ewing) back in the day.

[lonzo_pelota]

everybody is so concerned with the lakers & future hypotheticals, i used to think only skip , sas, cowherd & nick wright were preoccupied with the team's future endeavors ,its not just them anymore

[Mister Ze]

I'd hope that the Pels and Knicks win the lottery

[Pelon chingon]

everybody is so concerned with the lakers & future hypotheticals, i used to think only skip , sas, cowherd & nick wright were preoccupied with the team's future endeavors ,its not just them anymore

A team with LBJ struggling to even get in the playoffs is going to be a story. Then add in the Davis ish show and its 100% entertaining.

[7thshield]

Hello.

Let's suppose the Lakers finish with the 12th worst record (as they stand now). Their odds would be 1.3% for the #1 pick, 1.4# for the #2 pick, 1.6 for the #3 pick and 1.8 for the #4 pick. Full odds at http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds . EDIT: Correction, the odds would be 1.5, 1.7, 1.9 and 2.1.

How would you react if the Lakers won the #1 pick? How if they got one of the #2, #3 or #4 picks? Would it cause you to (further?) question the integrity of the NBA, to consider that the NBA is in some way rigged?

We know that the lottery process itself is audited by Ernst & Young, a very famous & prestigious company, but not without its black marks, including some heavy fines and also some very loud rumours of helping cover up big transgressions (for example the Lehman Brothers collapse).

We have also had some very interesting results (Ewing to Knicks, Rose to Chicago, Lebron to Cleveland, AD to the Pelicans, Cleveland getting 3 #1 picks after Lebron leaving and rumours of him eventually returning etc.) that some see as arguments in favour of the theory that the lottery is, at least on occasion, rigged.

So, how would you react if the Lakers jumped ahead in the lottery just as they're looking at a summer where they hope they'll have enough enticing "trade assets" to get AD and/or to lure the best free agents to LA regardless of whether they trade for AD, with the looming danger that the NBA will suffer greatly marketing-wise etc. if another year of Lebron's last highly productive years gets wasted?

If they get #1/Zion, he might be enough for Lakers to not need to get AD + another star to contend in 2019-2020, instead just getting one big FA and retaining their young core alongside Zion, Lebron and the FA star. If they get a 2-4 pick, that greatly improves their chances of trading for AD/otherwise improving.

Thanks for your replies!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAA. IF THEY GET NO 1 ZION. HAHAHAHAHA. You Lakers fans are delusional

[Hellcrooner]

If the lakers get the first pick it will not be rigging.

It will be something called KARMA.


keep hating please.

[Duke4life831]

If it was rigged, I think there NBA would've gift wrapped KAT or Simmons for them. If it was rigged, the Knicks would've gotten the #1 pick in one of these years. If it was rigged super hyped up prospects like AD or Wiggins (yes I know he's a busy, but still was very hyped) wouldn't have ended up in New Orleans and Minnesota.

Looking back at the results on the lottery, its almost like looking at random results from a.......... Lottery.

[scrabbarista]

Great poll. It's rare to see a poll on rgm where every reasonable option is presented among the choices.

Off the top of my head, I'd be rooting for Dallas, Atlanta, Memphis, or New Orleans to win Zion, in that order. I might change my mind on that in the next few months.

[LukaV]

Adding two interesting articles:

1. Wojnarowski article from the AD lottery -> https://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--nba-s-problematic-ownership-of-hornets-opens-door-to-rigged-talk-over-draft-lottery-20120531.html

The reaction of several league executives was part disgust, part resignation on Wednesday night. So many had predicted this happening, so many suspected that somehow, someway, the Hornets would walk away with Davis. That's the worst part for the NBA; these aren't the railings from the guy sitting at the corner tavern, but the belief of those working within the machinery that something undue happened here, that they suspect it happens all the time under Stern.

2. The Ringer 2017 article -> https://www.theringer.com/2017/5/17/16041680/conspiracy-corner-2017-nba-draft-rigged-los-angeles-lakers-2c18e7831379

I do not believe that the lottery is rigged. Not really. I don’t know, maybe. Sometimes I do, sure. But only, like, 10 percent of the time. Generally speaking, I think most conspiracy theories that boil are a matter of mistakes and miscommunication. The fun is in the analysis. Life unfolds haphazardly. Slow anything down and look at it from from multiple camera angles, and it will appear suspicious. Out of place. Perhaps even nefarious.

"The lottery works like this: 14 ping-pong balls, numbered 1–14, are placed in a machine that jumbles them at random. The machine is clear and the helter-skelter action of the balls is visible to the witnesses in the room and the cameras observing the proceedings. Balls are drawn from the machine at regular intervals until four have been selected. There are 1,001 possible four-digit combinations. The team with the worst regular-season record, in this case the Nets, is allotted 250 combinations, giving them a 25 percent chance of winning (Brooklyn’s pick would, of course, transfer to the Celtics). The Suns, with the second-worst record, received 199 combinations, and so on. The process is repeated two times, for the second and third picks." (This is still according to the old system, but it describes how the lottery itself is conducted.)

[NBAFan93]

Based on what is happening w/ the ratings, I think of the league was going to rig the lottery they’d go w/ an East team to get the number one pick. They may help the Lakers too so they have a better trade chip for AD. Who knows.

[Jack Dempsey]

I'm pretty sure David Stern rigged pretty much every Draft lottery but since Silver became the Comissioner the Lottery looks much more believable. During Stern's tenure the worst Team in the League has won the Lottery only 4 times (Clippers '88, Nets '90, Cavs '03 and Magic '04). 4 times in almost 30 years!!! Since his retirement the worst Team won it every year.

I know he did a great Job at globalizing the League but he also turned the NBA into a WWF like League. Silver has to eliminate the hand-checking rule and the Superstar calls and the game would be much more entertaining.

[LukaV]

Great poll. It's rare to see a poll on rgm where every reasonable option is presented among the choices.

Thanks! I really tried to cover all possible options, because I'm genuinely interested in what people think about this, especially since I really don't know what to think about this.

The vast majority of the time I don't think the lottery can be rigged (as it's currently set up, where it's a mechanical, apparently completely random analog (instead of digital) selection of balls), but reading that Wojnarowski article and seeing that some NBA executives (at least somewhat) doubt its integrity gives me a lot to think.

It doesn't help that I'm fairly certain that the NBA often influences what happens on the court through refs, so that gets me thinking cynically when contemplating whether the NBA would occasionally (not always, just as it doesn't constantly influence on-court events - it'd be too obvious) rig the lottery, provided it could (again, due to the mechanics). Admittedly, I don't know enough about physics etc. to know how the NBA could rig individual balls/grabbing mechanism.

Furthermore, it doesn't help to know how much rigging went/goes on everywhere even when the stakes are really high (including other types of lotteries, for example https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/mastermind-of-lottery-fraud-admits-he-rigged-jackpots.html / https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/03/magazine/money-issue-iowa-lottery-fraud-mystery.html ) and that corruption/rigging the rules&system seems to be pervasive in all pores of today's society with few exceptions.

Still, I always come back to not knowing enough to think of a plausible way to rig the machine/process as it's used now.

So who knows. But the Donaghy case really planted a lot of seeds of doubt in my mind about how much of what we see in the NBA is real and how much is influenced one way or the other by things we'd rather weren't involved (refs, prohibited substances,...) . I love basketball and have so many fond memories of NBA, so I'd love to think NBA was by and large genuine and pure, but yeah, it's grown to be such a money maker, one has its doubts it remained untouched by greed&corruption. That's why for example I really hope the NBA soon introduces some sort of system where the coach can challenge a ref's decision.

Anyway, thank you all for your replies thus far!

[scrabbarista]

Great poll. It's rare to see a poll on rgm where every reasonable option is presented among the choices.

Your take on things sounds very close to mine. It's clear that many if not the majority of humans will conspire whenever they think it'll benefit them and they'll get away with it - which is quite often!

As far as its being hard to rig the current system, two things. First, the short description you posted leaves many questions. Who are the witnesses in the room? (I know the answers to these questions are public knowledge, I'm just pointing out their importance.) What happens to the video recording? Who has access to the 1,001 combinations, and for how long? Isn't it true that the law firm that oversees the "impartiality" of the draft has been in the NBA's pocket for decades? There are probably others. Second, and more to the point, I'd think that anyone who's ever seen a good magic show would find it perfectly plausible that the current system could potentially be rigged.

But, as I said, your take is close to mine. I love the game and generally try to give the benefit of the doubt to the league whenever I can do so without feeling like I'm betraying rationality or my own eyes.

[Cavsfansince84]

I don't care either way and imo the league has more integrity now than it did 10-20 years ago when it really felt like almost every playoffs had some serious rigging going on and there were multiple refs you just knew were nothing more than Stern's hit men. Stern was all around more shady than Silver.

[Repeat 3-peat]

rigged.