ImageImageImageImageImage

Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

Moderators: LyricalRico, nate33, montestewart

User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,751
And1: 23,268
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#501 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:32 pm

We have $153,000 in luxtax space. I don't know what Wood's charge against the cap would be. How much of it is pro-rated? If we are only charged for 12/82nds of his $1.51M contract, that would amount to $220,000.

Remember, if we exceed the luxtax by just $1, Ted will miss out on the luxtax redistribution, which is typically $2-3M.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,951
And1: 9,281
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#502 » by payitforward » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:39 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:One of Dat's targets (and a fave of Pif's and mine) just became available as the Bucks waived Christian Wood to make room for Tim Frazier - who they picked up because of Brogdon's injury. I'd pick him up, sign him to an extension, and probably cut Randle.

Yup. I'd snap up Wood in a heartbeat. He was incredible in preseason but is buried behind way too much depth in Milwaukee.

Rather than cutting Randle, I'd cut Wesley Johnson. We don't have enough guards on the roster to cut Randle. Cutting Johnson would simply mean more minutes for Dekker and Brown, which is a good thing for now and the future.

We wouldn't need to cut either of them, I don't think. Signing Wood would take us to 15.

We might cut Johnson anyway, but it wouldn't save us any money -- we'd owe him his whole salary.

&, yes, we should certainly grab Wood! Especially if we can sign him to an extension. Not a likely Ernie move, however.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,751
And1: 23,268
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#503 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:42 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:One of Dat's targets (and a fave of Pif's and mine) just became available as the Bucks waived Christian Wood to make room for Tim Frazier - who they picked up because of Brogdon's injury. I'd pick him up, sign him to an extension, and probably cut Randle.

Yup. I'd snap up Wood in a heartbeat. He was incredible in preseason but is buried behind way too much depth in Milwaukee.

Rather than cutting Randle, I'd cut Wesley Johnson. We don't have enough guards on the roster to cut Randle. Cutting Johnson would simply mean more minutes for Dekker and Brown, which is a good thing for now and the future.

We wouldn't need to cut either of them, I don't think. Signing Wood would take us to 15.

We might cut Johnson anyway, but it wouldn't save us any money -- we'd owe him his whole salary.

&, yes, we should certainly grab Wood! Especially if we can sign him to an extension. Not a likely Ernie move, however.


As I understand it, if we claim him off waivers, his existing contract continues to apply, meaning we get the already-negotiated rate next year of $1.6M. A good deal.

I'm just not sure it's possible to sign him without getting in the luxtax. Are there any non-guaranteed salaries left to cut? I don't thinks so. I think all current contracts got locked in shortly after the Trade Deadline so that they're guaranteed for the rest of the season.
DCZards
RealGM
Posts: 11,181
And1: 5,026
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC
     

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#504 » by DCZards » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:14 pm

Dat2U wrote:
My counterargument to this is

A. Look at our schedule. Look who've beaten.
B. Look at Bradley Beal's minutes.
C. Look at how bad Ariza is playing. Why would you want to keep him?

Just a hunch. I think Green may go elsewhere.

Parker is going to the highest bidder. Is this a contract run of his or has he really turned over a new leaf the last 16 games?

The first 222 games of his career have me really skeptical.

D. What's the upside in all of this?

The Wall we know is dunzo. He could still possibly be a useful player but he's now making the super max.

Beal is desperately trying to qualify for the supermax.

This is going to become the basketball equivalent of a dead end for the next four years and beyond.


Agree on the weak schedule. We got all excited last year when the Zards (at least initially) played well when Wall went down and Sato became the starter. And some of us are doing the same this year. Last year, we played a lot of teams that were without their top 1 or 2 players during the “everybody eats” period. This team is NOT better with Sato at PG instead of Wall. Period.

I’ve said for weeks that Beal is playing too many minutes. I don’t have a problem with trying to make the playoffs--that's what pro athletes do--or Beal trying to be named All-NBA. But in the next week or so the playoff dream will likely be over and I’m hoping that Beal’s minutes will soon be limited. As far as Beal making All-NBA, I think most voters have already made up their minds as to whether or not BB is an all-NBA player.

I second Nate’s contention that there are players beyond Beal, Bryant, Sato, Brown and possibly Dekker that the Zards should bring back next season. I’d add Parker and maybe Green to that list. I wouldn’t bring back Ariza. He’s old and hasn’t really played that well recently. It’s in the best interest of Ariza and the Zards that Trevor move on. Although the Zards do desperately need help at both forward positions. (I really don’t see Brown as a SF. I think his best positions will turn out to be PG & SG.) Hopefully, some of that help will come via the draft.

There’s a case to be made for wanting to see Dwight Howard in a Zards uni next season. The Zards are currently 27th in rebounding and the team’s rim protection sucks. That HAS to change. Howard is still an elite rebounder and an above average shotblocker. I’d be fine if the Zards bought in another top rebounder/shotblocker but, in the absence of that, I’d try to keep Howard.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,951
And1: 9,281
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#505 » by payitforward » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:30 pm

nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
nate33 wrote:I've been thinking about Dat2U's overarching point that the Wizards basically suck so why should we bring back anybody except Beal and maybe Bryant, Sato and Dekker. I have to disagree.

The Wizards do basically suck right now, but the problem isn't the core players on the roster (Beal, Sato, Ariza, Green, Bryant, Parker, Portis, Dekker, Brown). Those guys collectively are decent. The problem is that our team has an effective payroll $40M less than everyone else because of the injuries (or ineptitude) of Wall, Howard and Mahinmi. Our core team right now is basically playing .500 ball. If you could take that roster and add $40M of good players to it, that's a pretty good team and we wouldn't be discussing how bad everyone sucks.

So I reject the notion that everyone must go because we suck. The fact is, if you replace everyone not named Beal with a bunch of other random free agents signed this offseason, chances are, the team would be just as bad, if not worse. You can't be good with an effective payroll of $85M when everyone else gets to spend $125M - particularly when you don't have a single starting-caliber player on a rookie scale contract.

I have no problems bringing back most of the guys on the roster. I would not bring back Portis because I think his cost will exceed his actual productivity, but I'd be okay with bringing back everyone else (Sato, Bryant, Parker, Ariza, Green, Dekker) at reasonable prices. And by reasonable, I don't mean ludicrously low, not-gonna-happen contracts like Parker at $5M a year or Ariza at the vet minimum. I'd be open to retaining Parker for $12M (on a 2+1 contract) and Ariza for $7M (on a 1-year deal) for example.

My counterargument to this is

A. Look at our schedule. Look who've beaten.
B. Look at Bradley Beal's minutes.
C. Look at how bad Ariza is playing. Why would you want to keep him?

Just a hunch. I think Green may go elsewhere.

Parker is going to the highest bidder. Is this a contract run of his or has he really turned over a new leaf the last 16 games?

The first 222 games of his career have me really skeptical.

D. What's the upside in all of this?

The Wall we know is dunzo. He could still possibly be a useful player but he's now making the super max.

Beal is desperately trying to qualify for the supermax.

This is going to become the basketball equivalent of a dead end for the next four years and beyond.

A. I realize we've beaten bad teams and can't beat good teams. I've explained why. Changing out our guys for whatever players we can find in free agency or via TPE trades isn't likely to change that. It's the Underpants Gnome theory of roster management. 1. Dump our mediocre players. 2 ? 3. Championship

B. Yes, his minutes should come down. We should definitely add a viable 3rd guard, or play Brown more. Fire Brooks if necessary. But I don't think Beal playing 35 minutes instead of 39 would suddenly make our team a cellar dweller.

C. Fair point on Ariza. Bringing him back is not my first choice. I'd definitely explore other options. But, after the draft and after resigning Sato, Bryant and Parker; if we look around and see that we've got no credible small forwards on the roster other than Brown, I'd at least consider Ariza. He's no longer that great of a player, but he is serviceable and by a accounts, a good veteran mentor. Whether we keep him or not would depend on the other options available. The one point in favor of retaining Ariza over other options is that we will have the Bird Rights to do it.

I'm not sure there's as much distance betwee you as first meets the eye. For one thing, surely Dat's list isn't 4 but 5 (i.e. Brown would be on it). Whereas, nate's is 9 -- but includes Portis whom he doesn't want to bring back.

IOW, it's all about Parker, Ariza & Green. Money is an issue right away. At $12m, $7m & say $3m (for Green), we'd be at $106m for 7 guys (including the non-playing Wall) before signing our R1 pick & turning to Bryant, Sato & Dekker.

Those 4 take us to $125m/11 guys. The 3 other players would have to be cheap & include a serviceable backup PG.

Since only 1 of these 11, the rookie, is a new addition to a team that has gone 17-17 -- with 19 home games & a pretty soft bunch of opponents, how might we improve?

1. Parker would have to pan out (surely that's a long shot), & neither Ariza nor Green could decline -- how likely is that?

2. We'd be playing Brown & Dekker way more minutes than they logged this year.

3. It would help a lot if our rookie were productive right away.

"2." looks like at least a possible reason not to re-sign Ariza. All the moreso if that productive rookie were a forward.

The most important variable is the biggish bet we'd be placing on Parker. It might come through, of course, but no one's bet on him has so far.

Then again, if we don't allocate that $12m to him, where do we turn for the now 4 players we need? We would have @$20m to work with.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,951
And1: 9,281
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#506 » by payitforward » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:49 pm

DCZards wrote:...I wouldn’t bring back Ariza. ...I’d try to keep Howard.

That wouldn't change the money crunch much. It would be nice to *add* a talented player (i.e. beyond our draft pick). That will be hard if we keep either of those guys -- much harder if we have both of them.

But... we can't "try to keep Howard" -- it's entirely his decision. I doubt he'll want to retire off an injury, so it seems very likely, to me at least, that his decision will turn on $$$.

If someone offers more than the $5.6m option he has with us it seems logical for him to take it. If not, it would make sense for him to come back.
DCZards
RealGM
Posts: 11,181
And1: 5,026
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC
     

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#507 » by DCZards » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:02 pm

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:...I wouldn’t bring back Ariza. ...I’d try to keep Howard.

That wouldn't change the money crunch much. It would be nice to *add* a talented player (i.e. beyond our draft pick). That will be hard if we keep either of those guys -- much harder if we have both of them.

But... we can't "try to keep Howard" -- it's entirely his decision. I doubt he'll want to retire off an injury, so it seems very likely, to me at least, that his decision will turn on $$$.

If someone offers more than the $5.6m option he has with us it seems logical for him to take it. If not, it would make sense for him to come back.


Sure, the Zards can "try to keep Howard." They can attempt to persuade him to pick up his option. They can offer some sweetners to his current contract (which I'm not suggesting). Yes, it's entirely Dwight's decision, but that doesn't mean the Zards can't try to keep him.

Don't you think the Pelicans tried (or are trying) to keep AD even though it's entirely his decision whether or not to sign an extension in NO?
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,951
And1: 9,281
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#508 » by payitforward » Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:31 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:...I wouldn’t bring back Ariza. ...I’d try to keep Howard.
...But... we can't "try to keep Howard" -- it's entirely his decision. ....

Sure, the Zards can "try to keep Howard." They can attempt to persuade him to pick up his option. They can offer some sweetners to his current contract (which I'm not suggesting). Yes, it's entirely Dwight's decision, but that doesn't mean the Zards can't try to keep him....

Duh. You're right, of course.
NatP4
RealGM
Posts: 14,779
And1: 6,011
Joined: Jul 24, 2016
         

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#509 » by NatP4 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:25 am

you guys are forgetting that Issuf Sanon is averaging 5 points per game on 40% shooting for Union Olimpija.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,951
And1: 9,281
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#510 » by payitforward » Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:02 am

Apparently, if you spell his name backwards he's actually averaging 40 points a game on 5% shooting for Ajip Milo No Inu.

You just have to thank your lucky stars that Ernie didn't do something dumb like take Hamidou Diallo* or DeAnthony Melton or Alonzo Trier or Gary Clark -- guys who've combined for over 3000 minutes NBA minutes as rookies.

*You do recall that Diallo was my pick, right? I mean, assuming we didn't trade our 2 picks to get more picks -- my overall & oft-repeated strategy.
Ruzious
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 47,909
And1: 11,582
Joined: Jul 17, 2001
       

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#511 » by Ruzious » Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:34 am

payitforward wrote:Apparently, if you spell his name backwards he's actually averaging 40 points a game on 5% shooting for Ajip Milo No Inu.

You just have to thank your lucky stars that Ernie didn't do something dumb like take Hamidou Diallo* or DeAnthony Melton or Alonzo Trier or Gary Clark -- guys who've combined for over 3000 minutes NBA minutes as rookies.

*You do recall that Diallo was my pick, right? I mean, assuming we didn't trade our 2 picks to get more picks -- my overall & oft-repeated strategy.

Just wondering what is it about Diallo that you like so much - you've mentioned him a bunch of times. His stats are not at all good. Gary Clark is 24 and has very poor stats. De'Anthony Melton has very poor stats. Trier's done ok, but he's 23. Granted, all of them could improve significantly next season, but if Ernie were listening, he'd be saying you're making his point.
"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." - Douglas Adams
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 24,951
And1: 9,281
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#512 » by payitforward » Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:54 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Apparently, if you spell his name backwards he's actually averaging 40 points a game on 5% shooting for Ajip Milo No Inu.

You just have to thank your lucky stars that Ernie didn't do something dumb like take Hamidou Diallo* or DeAnthony Melton or Alonzo Trier or Gary Clark -- guys who've combined for over 3000 minutes NBA minutes as rookies.

*You do recall that Diallo was my pick, right? I mean, assuming we didn't trade our 2 picks to get more picks -- my overall & oft-repeated strategy.

Just wondering what is it about Diallo that you like so much - you've mentioned him a bunch of times. His stats are not at all good. Gary Clark is 24 and has very poor stats. De'Anthony Melton has very poor stats. Trier's done ok, but he's 23. Granted, all of them could improve significantly next season, but if Ernie were listening, he'd be saying you're making his point.

Fair question. & I'm sure that's what Ernie would say. That's why he's Ernie, while Daryl Morey & Sam Presti are the best GMs in the league.

So... lets start with Gary Clark: he has played 587 minutes at the 3 for Houston. By no means has he posted "very poor stats." In fact, he's posted very good "journeyman" stats -- i.e. he doesn't score a lot or have stand-out numbers in any 1 area, but he is quite solid: he's above average in offensive rebounds, above average in defensive rebounds, way above average in blocks, doesn't turn it over (b/c he isn't asked to do much with the ball in his hands), & way below average in assists (also b/c he isn't asked to do much with the ball in his hands).

Clark's scoring numbers are hilarious. He's at 67% on two pt. FGAs -- & 100% from the FT line! But, Houston wants him to shoot the 3, i.e. to learn to shoot it. Consequently, of the only 8.25 FGAs he takes per 40 minutes, 7.3 are threes. His % is only 30.5%.

Clark has an excellent chance to have a very effective journeyman career in the NBA for several seasons. I.e. he has value. Think P.J. Tucker. & that value is made the more significant by the fact that he cost literally nothing. No asset was needed to acquire him. He went undrafted & signed as a FA. This year he's making $600K, & Houston has sewed him up for four long years. As I say, "Daryl Morey is the best...."

The other guys:

Diallo & Melton are both 20 years old, have NBA bodies, come from good college programs where they did well, & have significant upside. Diallo has played 525 minutes for OKC. He was tremendous the first couple of months of the season -- a measure of his athleticism: once he'd been scouted & his favorite stuff taken away it was back to the ground floor. But, he's already one of the top rebounding guards in the league (again... athleticism) & a terrific prospect to have been acquired with a mid R2 pick. &, once again, we are looking at the work of one of the league's top GMs.

Rinse & repeat for Melton: a 20 year old high-level athlete who does some things very well but is still learning the nba game. He's already above average for a PG in everything but shooting -- otoh he shoots 83% from the line.

That leaves Trier -- what he's done better than the other guys is get himself on the floor! B/c the Knicks are an awful team that's been relatively easier for him than for Clark & Diallo. But, actually, those guys -- Melton too -- have been better than Trier.

Trier is about average in usage on offense & slightly above average in his scoring efficiency -- good! His rebounding is about average for a guard as well. But, most everything else isn't good at all. He's below average in assists, blocks & steals, & he turns it over too much. &, since -- as you point out -- he's 23, you can't really judge him as much on potential.

Still... we're talking about an undrafted player. He should be a bargain. He isn't, however: the Knicks are idiots. They gave the undrafted Alonzo Trier $3.4m this year.

edit: the way to think about Melton/Diallo in re: our idiotic R2 pick of Sanon is to put one of them on our squad in place of Chasson Randle. Nice kid, not really an NBA player. Much older than either M or D. No potential to enhance your future.
User avatar
SUPERBALLMAN
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,710
And1: 1,374
Joined: Aug 08, 2006
     

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#513 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:14 pm

It is a shame, because if fully healthy you have to think this team would be competing for the top of the EC....

Wall, Beal, Ariza, Green, Howard

Sato, Brown, Johnson, Dekker, Parker, Portis, Bryant

I mean on paper that's a damn good lineup and bench.

As it is, the way this team is playing now, I'd be fine with blowing it all up... GM, Coach, the entire roster... Draft the BPA, and dump the rest. Have a bon fire and just start the whole thing over from scratch. This team is just pathetic, and Scott Brooks is totally worthless as head coach.
"I love it when a plan comes together" - Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
pcbothwel
Head Coach
Posts: 6,250
And1: 2,812
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
     

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#514 » by pcbothwel » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:35 pm

SUPERBALLMAN wrote:It is a shame, because if fully healthy you have to think this team would be competing for the top of the EC....

Wall, Beal, Ariza, Green, Howard

Sato, Brown, Johnson, Dekker, Parker, Portis, Bryant

I mean on paper that's a damn good lineup and bench.

As it is, the way this team is playing now, I'd be fine with blowing it all up... GM, Coach, the entire roster... Draft the BPA, and dump the rest. Have a bon fire and just start the whole thing over from scratch. This team is just pathetic, and Scott Brooks is totally worthless as head coach.


Yeah... its bad when you think that our FO has actually fielded a decent team (Even if EG has squandered assets). But we then become further handcuffed by a terrible coach.

Robinson, Dekker, Brown Jr., Sato, Bryant are all really good young players that Brooks hasnt played over the last 2 years.

Beal and Ariza playing every game @ 40 MPG is atrocious... and thats ALL BROOKS...especially the Ariza part.
DCZards
RealGM
Posts: 11,181
And1: 5,026
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC
     

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#515 » by DCZards » Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:15 pm

SUPERBALLMAN wrote:It is a shame, because if fully healthy you have to think this team would be competing for the top of the EC....

Wall, Beal, Ariza, Green, Howard

Sato, Brown, Johnson, Dekker, Parker, Portis, Bryant

I mean on paper that's a damn good lineup and bench.

As it is, the way this team is playing now, I'd be fine with blowing it all up... GM, Coach, the entire roster... Draft the BPA, and dump the rest. Have a bon fire and just start the whole thing over from scratch. This team is just pathetic, and Scott Brooks is totally worthless as head coach.


I'm a little confused by this, superballman. You start off by saying that this is a Zards team that if healthy would be a top team in the EC and then you end up by suggesting that the team be blown up. That's somewhat of a contradiction, imo. If this is a good (or decent) team when fully healthy as you say, why not keep those pieces/players that make you believe it can be competitive rather than blowing it up and starting over?

I'm on board with bringing back Wall, Beal, Sato, Brown, Bryant and Parker. I'd probably add Howard, Dekker and Green to that list. I'm far less sure about the need to bring back Ariza, Portis and Randle.
User avatar
SUPERBALLMAN
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,710
And1: 1,374
Joined: Aug 08, 2006
     

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#516 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:38 pm

DCZards wrote:
SUPERBALLMAN wrote:It is a shame, because if fully healthy you have to think this team would be competing for the top of the EC....

Wall, Beal, Ariza, Green, Howard

Sato, Brown, Johnson, Dekker, Parker, Portis, Bryant

I mean on paper that's a damn good lineup and bench.

As it is, the way this team is playing now, I'd be fine with blowing it all up... GM, Coach, the entire roster... Draft the BPA, and dump the rest. Have a bon fire and just start the whole thing over from scratch. This team is just pathetic, and Scott Brooks is totally worthless as head coach.


I'm a little confused by this, superballman. You start off by saying that this is a Zards team that if healthy would be a top team in the EC and then you end up by suggesting that the team be blown up. That's somewhat of a contradiction, imo. If this is a good (or decent) team when fully healthy as you say, why not keep those pieces/players that make you believe it can be competitive rather than blowing it up and starting over?

I'm on board with bringing back Wall, Beal, Sato, Brown, Bryant and Parker. I'd probably add Howard, Dekker and Green to that list. I'm far less sure about the need to bring back Ariza, Portis and Randle.



Well, I guess my point is this roster as is fully healthy... With Wall and Howard, etc. I'd be good with bringing it back next season and giving it another shot if that was possible.

But Wall won't be ready until the middle of next season if then, Howard hasn't played at all so can you count on him? Parker is putting up as many points as possible so he can go to the highest bidder. Can we afford to keep Ariza and/or Portis?? Can we even keep Bryant, I'm not sure he won't get some crazy offer.

I mean if we can keep that 12 i listed, and add our top pick to it, sign me up! But I don't see how we can keep it together beyond this season. With what we are paying Wall and Beal, we will only be able to patch a team around them which will get us nowhere.. And who knows if Wall will ever be the same. I was hopeful of maybe keeping it together, but others on here have convinced m it's not financially possible. And with Ernie and Scott Brooks in charge, it seems futile.

If we could bring it back Id be in, but it seems this Wall and Beal era has been driven to the edge of a cliff... And it may be time to just go ahead and push it over and let it crash.
"I love it when a plan comes together" - Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
Ruzious
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 47,909
And1: 11,582
Joined: Jul 17, 2001
       

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#517 » by Ruzious » Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:38 pm

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Apparently, if you spell his name backwards he's actually averaging 40 points a game on 5% shooting for Ajip Milo No Inu.

You just have to thank your lucky stars that Ernie didn't do something dumb like take Hamidou Diallo* or DeAnthony Melton or Alonzo Trier or Gary Clark -- guys who've combined for over 3000 minutes NBA minutes as rookies.

*You do recall that Diallo was my pick, right? I mean, assuming we didn't trade our 2 picks to get more picks -- my overall & oft-repeated strategy.

Just wondering what is it about Diallo that you like so much - you've mentioned him a bunch of times. His stats are not at all good. Gary Clark is 24 and has very poor stats. De'Anthony Melton has very poor stats. Trier's done ok, but he's 23. Granted, all of them could improve significantly next season, but if Ernie were listening, he'd be saying you're making his point.

Fair question. & I'm sure that's what Ernie would say. That's why he's Ernie, while Daryl Morey & Sam Presti are the best GMs in the league.

So... lets start with Gary Clark: he has played 587 minutes at the 3 for Houston. By no means has he posted "very poor stats." In fact, he's posted very good "journeyman" stats -- i.e. he doesn't score a lot or have stand-out numbers in any 1 area, but he is quite solid: he's above average in offensive rebounds, above average in defensive rebounds, way above average in blocks, doesn't turn it over (b/c he isn't asked to do much with the ball in his hands), & way below average in assists (also b/c he isn't asked to do much with the ball in his hands).

Clark's scoring numbers are hilarious. He's at 67% on two pt. FGAs -- & 100% from the FT line! But, Houston wants him to shoot the 3, i.e. to learn to shoot it. Consequently, of the only 8.25 FGAs he takes per 40 minutes, 7.3 are threes. His % is only 30.5%.

Clark has an excellent chance to have a very effective journeyman career in the NBA for several seasons. I.e. he has value. Think P.J. Tucker. & that value is made the more significant by the fact that he cost literally nothing. No asset was needed to acquire him. He went undrafted & signed as a FA. This year he's making $600K, & Houston has sewed him up for four long years. As I say, "Daryl Morey is the best...."

The other guys:

Diallo & Melton are both 20 years old, have NBA bodies, come from good college programs where they did well, & have significant upside. Diallo has played 525 minutes for OKC. He was tremendous the first couple of months of the season -- a measure of his athleticism: once he'd been scouted & his favorite stuff taken away it was back to the ground floor. But, he's already one of the top rebounding guards in the league (again... athleticism) & a terrific prospect to have been acquired with a mid R2 pick. &, once again, we are looking at the work of one of the league's top GMs.

Rinse & repeat for Melton: a 20 year old high-level athlete who does some things very well but is still learning the nba game. He's already above average for a PG in everything but shooting -- otoh he shoots 83% from the line.

That leaves Trier -- what he's done better than the other guys is get himself on the floor! B/c the Knicks are an awful team that's been relatively easier for him than for Clark & Diallo. But, actually, those guys -- Melton too -- have been better than Trier.

Trier is about average in usage on offense & slightly above average in his scoring efficiency -- good! His rebounding is about average for a guard as well. But, most everything else isn't good at all. He's below average in assists, blocks & steals, & he turns it over too much. &, since -- as you point out -- he's 23, you can't really judge him as much on potential.

Still... we're talking about an undrafted player. He should be a bargain. He isn't, however: the Knicks are idiots. They gave the undrafted Alonzo Trier $3.4m this year.

edit: the way to think about Melton/Diallo in re: our idiotic R2 pick of Sanon is to put one of them on our squad in place of Chasson Randle. Nice kid, not really an NBA player. Much older than either M or D. No potential to enhance your future.

I'll buy that they are all likely to improve, but there's no getting around the fact that their stats stink - with the exception of Trier - who's merely ok. The other 3 have PERs right around 10 with eFG's and TS%'s under 50% - some significantly below 50%. That's really bad - there's just no sugar-coating it or talking around it. The plusses are they're paid little and have some potential, but as of now - they haven't helped their teams win. I just wouldn't use them as examples to show Ernie was wrong - at this point - maybe next season if they step up. But to each his own as "they" say.
"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." - Douglas Adams
NatP4
RealGM
Posts: 14,779
And1: 6,011
Joined: Jul 24, 2016
         

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#518 » by NatP4 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:38 pm

Maybe because we are paying a player 40 million dollars to sit on the bench in a suit for the next 2 years
DCZards
RealGM
Posts: 11,181
And1: 5,026
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC
     

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#519 » by DCZards » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:02 pm

NatP4 wrote:Maybe because we are paying a player 40 million dollars to sit on the bench in a suit for the next 2 years


I assume you're talking about Wall. If so, we're talking about one year and not the next two years...and the guy is injured so let's have some empathy.
NatP4
RealGM
Posts: 14,779
And1: 6,011
Joined: Jul 24, 2016
         

Re: 2019 Offseason Thread 

Post#520 » by NatP4 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:38 pm

DCZards wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Maybe because we are paying a player 40 million dollars to sit on the bench in a suit for the next 2 years


I assume you're talking about Wall. If so, we're talking about one year and not the next two years...and the guy is injured so let's have some empathy.


virtue signaling :lol:

Wall is going to miss next season and missed the majority of this year, that is 2 seasons. After that, he is going to come back as an (even moreso) inefficient chucker that can't guard anyone and cannot beat anyone off the dribble. This is what happens to everyone that tears an achilles. it is a devastating injury. we owe him 37 million, 40 million, 43 million, and 46 million in the next 4 seasons. He will also be 30 years old when he returns. More than likely, Wall is completely done being an effective NBA player. This franchise is totally f'd for the next 4 years until that contract is off the books.

BEFORE the injury, Wall was having the worst season of his career by far, 0.52 WS/48, a negative BPM,he ranked 49th in RPM for point guards only. He even had a horrendous -6.0 net rating and a completely ridiculous 112.7 defensive rating.

the ONLY thing that makes sense in the near future is to sell off all the 25 and over players for whatever assets you can get and just tank completely for the next 4 seasons, clean house with the front office completely.

Return to Washington Wizards